To medal, I think the skaters are going to have to skate a solid SP (65+) and a solid LP (130+).
130+ LP this year: Liza, Mao, Carolina, Yuna.
Ashley, Akiko, and Adelina have come close and those three have the potential to surpass 130 if clean (and, in Ashley's case, can add a 2A/3T or 3F/3T).
No one else has even come close to the 130 mark internationally, and Liza might have trouble scoring over 60 in the SP with the PCS she gets, so it would appear likely that these skaters will occupy the top 7 spots (and the top 3 we expect to fill up the podium). Obviously, some of these skaters will not do their best and might finish outside the top 7 but it is going to be a tall order for skaters outside this group to break into the top 5.