It's quite embarrassing (for her and her fans) to talk about Osmond in THIS thread. Very strange things could happen at Skate Canada. Four years ago, a man touted as the next big thing "won" with the seventh highest TES. He "won" the same season's 4CC at home but Osmond has left only bad impressions heading into worlds.
But it's not Osmond fans that are bringing her up here, but some haters being ridiciulous about how inflated her scores will supposedly be.Originally Posted by NMURA
Yuna breaking 150? Her current BV layout assuming she'll get level 4 on everything is 58.63. Getting straigth +3's on everything would give her +24 in GOE, meaning a TES of 82.63. But does anyone think even a completly clean Yuna will have +3 everywhere? An average of +2's would mean +16 GOE and 74.63 in TES.
Caro received around 70 in PCS at Euro's, and that was the highest score given this season in an ISU event. Despite marks going up a little between Euros and worlds, I don't see Yuna receiving that much higher marks given Caro's better SS, so maybe if you want to be really optimistic 75 is doable, but I doubt any woman will get a score like that.
Even taking together 74.63 and 75 in PCS is not quite breaking 150. And I still think 75 in PCS seems to high. Probably about 70 in PCS is realistic and that combines to 144+, still a very huge score.
For Caro not even getting over 130: huge . Even if it's unlikely, getting 7 triples done (including 3F-3T) plus level 4's will give her a BV of 59.11. Her possible +GOE's are nearly exactly the same as Yunas, and Caro can easily get great GOE for jumps and steps. With +16 in GOE her TES would be 75.11. Plus 70 in PCS which she got at Euro's she'd be at 145+. A clean Caro will break the 140, no doubt.
Now people can say she won't be clean, alright. Let's take the 3F-3T out and say she'll only do a 2T (loss of 2.7 points in BV) and she might pop one of her Salchows again (loss of about 4 points). She'd still be around 135 with that (as the Euro's performance showed quite well). Except for Mao and Yuna, I don't see anyone beating that.
For Mao, even assuming she'll get 3F-3Lo< she has by far the highest BV. Everything ratified would even give her 68.65. Plus about 67 in PCS (what she got at 4CC) she's at 135.65 without the +GOE. Now Mao is not as likely as the other two to get huge GOE for her jumps, but she does for her spins and steps. So let's be a little pessimistic and say +1 on everything except the 3Lz, it would be +7.8. Overall 143.45. Even with 3F-3Lo< she'd break the 140, and clean she might come really close to 150 (although it's very unlikely).
Additionally, Liza already got 130+ and Akiko at 4CC and Adelina at Euros showed they're capable of 130+ if clean.
As for Ashley, she's been in the high 120's, but that was already when she was very close to perfect. Without a 3-3 she might break the 130 due to generally increasing scores dring the season, but I don't think she has the same scoring potential as the other 6 ladies mentioned above. Gracie would score over 130 if she was clean.
So I'd say it's four ladies who are likely to break 130 (Yuna, Mao, Caro and Liza) and three who have a shot at it but are rather unlikely (Akiko, Adelina and Gracie).