It's quite embarrassing (for her and her fans) to talk about Osmond in THIS thread. Very strange things could happen at Skate Canada. Four years ago, a man touted as the next big thing "won" with the seventh highest TES. He "won" the same season's 4CC at home but Osmond has left only bad impressions heading into worlds.
But it's not Osmond fans that are bringing her up here, but some haters being ridiciulous about how inflated her scores will supposedly be.Originally Posted by NMURA
Yuna breaking 150? Her current BV layout assuming she'll get level 4 on everything is 58.63. Getting straigth +3's on everything would give her +24 in GOE, meaning a TES of 82.63. But does anyone think even a completly clean Yuna will have +3 everywhere? An average of +2's would mean +16 GOE and 74.63 in TES.
Caro received around 70 in PCS at Euro's, and that was the highest score given this season in an ISU event. Despite marks going up a little between Euros and worlds, I don't see Yuna receiving that much higher marks given Caro's better SS, so maybe if you want to be really optimistic 75 is doable, but I doubt any woman will get a score like that.
Even taking together 74.63 and 75 in PCS is not quite breaking 150. And I still think 75 in PCS seems to high. Probably about 70 in PCS is realistic and that combines to 144+, still a very huge score.
For Caro not even getting over 130: huge . Even if it's unlikely, getting 7 triples done (including 3F-3T) plus level 4's will give her a BV of 59.11. Her possible +GOE's are nearly exactly the same as Yunas, and Caro can easily get great GOE for jumps and steps. With +16 in GOE her TES would be 75.11. Plus 70 in PCS which she got at Euro's she'd be at 145+. A clean Caro will break the 140, no doubt.
Now people can say she won't be clean, alright. Let's take the 3F-3T out and say she'll only do a 2T (loss of 2.7 points in BV) and she might pop one of her Salchows again (loss of about 4 points). She'd still be around 135 with that (as the Euro's performance showed quite well). Except for Mao and Yuna, I don't see anyone beating that.
For Mao, even assuming she'll get 3F-3Lo< she has by far the highest BV. Everything ratified would even give her 68.65. Plus about 67 in PCS (what she got at 4CC) she's at 135.65 without the +GOE. Now Mao is not as likely as the other two to get huge GOE for her jumps, but she does for her spins and steps. So let's be a little pessimistic and say +1 on everything except the 3Lz, it would be +7.8. Overall 143.45. Even with 3F-3Lo< she'd break the 140, and clean she might come really close to 150 (although it's very unlikely).
Additionally, Liza already got 130+ and Akiko at 4CC and Adelina at Euros showed they're capable of 130+ if clean.
As for Ashley, she's been in the high 120's, but that was already when she was very close to perfect. Without a 3-3 she might break the 130 due to generally increasing scores dring the season, but I don't think she has the same scoring potential as the other 6 ladies mentioned above. Gracie would score over 130 if she was clean.
So I'd say it's four ladies who are likely to break 130 (Yuna, Mao, Caro and Liza) and three who have a shot at it but are rather unlikely (Akiko, Adelina and Gracie).
I don't see how Liza can break 130+ at Worlds. As far as i'm concerned she still skates small and compared to some of the other girls her age she skates slow and still doesn't have great ice coverage.
That's true, I've just wanted to start the above post with what I think would happen with a good to very good skate. The worst part about the 3A at 4CC wasn't the < but the bad two-footed landing resulting in -2/-3 GOE. If I change her BV to 3A< and 3F-3Lo< it's still 64.65, and still huge. She might break 140 with that stillOriginally Posted by FSGMT
And it's nice to hear you think Mao could break 70 in PCS - I think she'll be a little behind Caro and maybe Yuna if everyone skates equally well, that's why I didn't want to bump her up to 70. If I'd be too optimistic, I'd feel it's just my little fan heart getting in the way
Kostner landed a clean 3Lz again. And went for 3F-3T in the LP. Her PCS stayed 70+. I think she will go for 7 triples at World. Will be epic this year.
I'm glad to see Carolina gets +2 to +3 on her lutz. Even though it isn't preceded or followed by steps I love seeing the classic lutz entry. Everything about that jump is perfect.
Skaters capable of breaking 130 -- I generally agree with your analysis.
Skaters capable of breaking 140 -- only Yuna and Mao (but they would have to be perfect)
Carolina can definitely break 140 if she's clean. Well I don't think she'll ever skate clean with harder technical content.
Last edited by Moment; 02-22-2013 at 11:52 PM.
Her LP. Huge lutz, covered a lot of distance. Worthy of +2 GOE. She doesn't need any preceding steps because everything else is first rate.
I can see some kind of hook on the landing of the 3F-3T, but I'm surprised it was called UR.
Too glaring mistakes on the 2A and 3Lo, two elements she can definitely do well on.
It's funny some people think Yuna can break 150 with 6 triples and Caro can't break 140 with 7 triples. Someone must have been dropped on the head a few times growing up.
Last edited by FlattFan; 02-23-2013 at 01:18 AM.
Number of triples doesn't really matter. Yuna has three 3Lz and two 3F in her programs. Caro, on the other hand, has one 3Lz and one 3F. Yuna has harder jumps. Caro received 60 for her FS TES at Euros. Yuna received 70 for her FS TES at her Nationals. Caro had 4 triples at Euros(FS) and 5(or six, if you count the UR 3T) triples at Challenge Cup. Yuna always had six triples this season. Yuna is always more consistent and her worst FS of this season(NRW Trophy) still could receive 60+ for TES. Caro got 55 for her TES at Challenge Cup.
Really, we can't be confident that Caro would be able to beat Yuna with "7" triples. When was a last time that Caro actually had 7 triples(no UR, downgrades) in her FS?
I would think in the LP if Caro hit 7 clean triples she would beat Yuna with 6 (although Yuna hitting 6 is wayyyyy more likely than Caro hitting 7). I prefer Carolina's LP this year over Yuna's and would love to see Kostner win with true World Champion technical difficulty.