Which Ladies Can Skate a 130+ LP at Worlds? | Golden Skate

Which Ladies Can Skate a 130+ LP at Worlds?

drivingmissdaisy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 17, 2010
To medal, I think the skaters are going to have to skate a solid SP (65+) and a solid LP (130+).

130+ LP this year: Liza, Mao, Carolina, Yuna.

Ashley, Akiko, and Adelina have come close and those three have the potential to surpass 130 if clean (and, in Ashley's case, can add a 2A/3T or 3F/3T).

No one else has even come close to the 130 mark internationally, and Liza might have trouble scoring over 60 in the SP with the PCS she gets, so it would appear likely that these skaters will occupy the top 7 spots (and the top 3 we expect to fill up the podium). Obviously, some of these skaters will not do their best and might finish outside the top 7 but it is going to be a tall order for skaters outside this group to break into the top 5.
 

silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
A clean Osmond, because it's in Canada, or Gold, because her jumps are monsters, could maybe do it as well but it will definitely be tough and I think they'd have to be foot perfect to put up 130+ internationally.
 

kwanatic

Check out my YT channel, Bare Ice!
Record Breaker
Joined
May 19, 2011
The days of someone winning gold with a 180-185 total score are over with. I think the 4th and 5th place will score around 190-195 and the ones on the podium will be 195-200+...
 

Skater Boy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 24, 2012
The days of someone winning gold with a 180-185 total score are over with. I think the 4th and 5th place will score around 190-195 and the ones on the podium will be 195-200+...

I am not so sure the scores will be that high for 4th and 5th. A lot depends on how generous are the pcs.
 

FlattFan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jan 4, 2010
The front runners for the podium have scored 70+ in the SP and 130+ in the LP.
Unless they make 2 mistakes and the other girls have the skate of their lives, the podium is set.
 

sky_fly20

Match Penalty
Joined
Nov 20, 2011
Yuna - 155 +
Kostner - 150 +
Mao - 145+
Osmond 140+ Canadian Inflation , 2 falls from Osmond will only get 120+
Tuk , Gracie and Ashley 130 +
 

FSGMT

Record Breaker
Joined
Sep 10, 2012
Yuna - 155 +
That's really optimist: she received 145 with a clean program at Nationals, with 6 triples she can't reach 150 at international competitions, she would need more than 75 in the PCS and I don't think that the judges will give this to her...
 

sky_fly20

Match Penalty
Joined
Nov 20, 2011
That's really optimist: she received 145 with a clean program at Nationals, with 6 triples she can't reach 150 at international competitions, she would need more than 75 in the PCS and I don't think that the judges will give this to her...

Yuna always gets high PCS the once she will compete
in Canada her top 3 main pcs competitors will be Kostner Mao and Osmond

Yuna 73-75 PCS, Mao Carolina and Osmond 70+
 

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
Um the only time Yuna Kim reached 150+ was at the 2010 Olympics. When the judges were giving PBs like candy and the skaters performed at their optimal best. Not to mention that you don't have the spiral sequence anymore in the FS. And in fact Yuna is the only skater to have reached 150+ EVER.

And only a handful of skaters have reached 130+. Out of the present crowd that's Yuna, Mao and Carolina. Ashley, Adelina and Akiko PBs are in the high 120s.
 

sky_fly20

Match Penalty
Joined
Nov 20, 2011
Um the only time Yuna Kim reached 150+ was at the 2010 Olympics. When the judges were giving PBs like candy and the skaters performed at their optimal best. Not to mention that you don't have the spiral sequence anymore in the FS. And in fact Yuna is the only skater to have reached 150+ EVER.

And only a handful of skaters have reached 130+. Out of the present crowd that's Yuna, Mao and Carolina. Ashley, Adelina and Akiko PBs are in the high 120s.

i know but Worlds generally will ge inflated scores too
lets see how they will score it especially pre olympic season

Yuna will get 150+
Mao and Carolina and Osmond will get pcs 70+
Gracie, Liza and Ashley maybe Adelina can get 120 -to 130 +

my standing
Yuna 150 +,
Osmond 145 + if Mao and Carolina have too much doubles they are still capable of scoring 130+, see EC 2013
the rest will play catch with these big Top 4
 

Moment

Final Flight
Joined
Jan 18, 2013
155+ is impossible unless it's a skating god competing, considering 160 is a maximum score she can get if she receives +3 GOE on every single element and a perfect PCS (80) with current jump layout.

I think 75+ PCS is manageable if she skates like Vancouver LP, since everyone's getting higher PCS this season by a pretty large margin.
 

sky_fly20

Match Penalty
Joined
Nov 20, 2011
exactly:
if everyone skates their potential

it will be a Yuna-Mao-Carolina
but if the other two falters, Osmond will sneak the silver or bronze medal.

Yun can get 75+ pcs if Carolina can score a 70+
 

chuckm

Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 31, 2003
Country
United-States
:rolleye:
Yuna - 155 +
Kostner - 150 +
Mao - 145+
Osmond 140+ Canadian Inflation , 2 falls from Osmond will only get 120+

Osmond received 115.89 for her best international FS (SC) with one fall and that was with "Canadian inflation".
TES: 57.28
PCS: 59.61

At 4CC, she got 103.16 for a one-fall FS with a singled double and a doubled triple.
TES: 48.72
PCS: 55.44

Osmond hasn't cracked 60 PCS for her FS, so I don't see how she could reach 70.
If she's scored below 120 with one fall, I fail to see how she could score over 120 with two falls.
Maybe when pigs fly.....
 

sky_fly20

Match Penalty
Joined
Nov 20, 2011
:rolleye:

Osmond received 115.89 for her best international FS (SC) with one fall and that was with "Canadian inflation".
TES: 57.28
PCS: 59.61

At 4CC, she got 103.16 for a one-fall FS with a singled double and a doubled triple.
TES: 48.72
PCS: 55.44

Osmond hasn't cracked 60 PCS for her FS, so I don't see how she could reach 70.
If she's scored below 120 with one fall, I fail to see how she could score over 120 with two falls.
Maybe when pigs fly.....

because 4CC was held outside
while Worlds will be on home ground
Osmond will have a huge advantage with this and yes if she is clean judges will give her 70+ in pcs for FS
with 2 falls plus inflation she will get 120+ only though
 

jenaj

Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 17, 2003
Country
United-States
Yuna - 155 +
Kostner - 150 +
Mao - 145+
Osmond 140+ Canadian Inflation , 2 falls from Osmond will only get 120+
Tuk , Gracie and Ashley 130 +

Osmond 140+? I don't think so! 130 is a really high score under IJS. Yu Na might break 140 with a clean program, but then again, she has rarely skated her long program without mistakes. Osmond and Gracie should be thrilled if they get anything over 120. Neither is likely to get 130. Ashley can get high 120s with a clean program. I think she got around 129 at 4CC's last year. Mao won't skate clean, so there is no point in thinking she might. With two fairly minor mistakes--hand-down, doubling a triple, she will reach 130 if she does her triple axel. Tuk? Who knows. I would put her in the same category as Gold and Osmond.

ETA: Kostner won't get more than 130 and might not get that. She isn't doing a 3-3, is she? I think she will score a few points above a clean Ashley, based on her PCS.
 
Last edited:

demarinis5

Gold for the Winter Prince!
Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 23, 2004
Caro, Yuna and Mao. I believe that these 3 ladies are the front runners for the podium, just not sure which order.

ETA: Caro skated a clean SP today in the Hague, 3Lo, 3T+3T, 2A, L4 on steps and L4 on 2 of her spins, she leads with 72.81 :)
 
Last edited:

BlackAxel

Final Flight
Joined
Oct 31, 2009
because 4CC was held outside
while Worlds will be on home ground
Osmond will have a huge advantage with this and yes if she is clean judges will give her 70+ in pcs for FS
with 2 falls plus inflation she will get 120+ only though

She skated at Skate Canada and received 59.61 (PCS) after making a mistake in the LP ... And you still think her PCS will skyrocket to 70+ with a clean LP? Hmmm ...
 

silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
My guess is:

high 130s-140: Yuna (the only person going over 140 is a perfect Yuna, IMO)

high 120s-low 130s: Carolina and Mao for typical quality performances from them, Ashley and Akiko for very strong performances, Liza and Gracie for a clean technical clinic skate, Osmond if she's totally clean to activate hometown bonus

low - mid 120s: Murakami and Sotnikova as clean as we can realistically expect from them (for Kanako that's most likely at least one UR or popped axel, Adelina one mistake), perfectly clean Li (if scored generously), maybe a perfect Marchei or Gede (like we'll ever see that, though)

Realistically, Osmond and Gold become a part of the 3rd group instead of the 2nd if they are anything less than perfect. I think Yuna is the only one who can reach 140, and she'll need everything to do that. Mao beefing up her content doesn't mean much because she's unlikely to get credit for all of it, we saw that, Mao with crazy but not perfectly executed content at 4CC scored only 1 point higher than Mao with easier content that was executed very well for the most part at GPF.

I think 3-3 in the SP is more important than 2a-3t in the FS for Ashley. She's been pretty good at skating clean FS programs while most of the other ladies can't say the same, but the SP is where she needs the edge. We saw that last year, her FS at Worlds was great but her PCS were kept down after placing 8th in the SP which prevented her from moving up higher. I guess the one thing I worry about though is that she does have the 3lo and 2a in the second half of her SP, so should she try the 3-3 and have things go wrong, nailing the rest of the program could be tougher. Doing a 3t-3t with the solo jump as 3f or 3lo and both being in the first half would be a nice middle ground, but I doubt she'd want to change up her layout that much at this point. Some of her strategy may have to do with the start order and how others are skating..
 

drivingmissdaisy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 17, 2010
Doing a 3t-3t with the solo jump as 3f or 3lo and both being in the first half would be a nice middle ground, but I doubt she'd want to change up her layout that much at this point. Some of her strategy may have to do with the start order and how others are skating..

I don't think she trains this combination, does she? Her 3F is rock solid (she nailed it after her bad fall at the GPF) so if she did a 3F-3T I could see her placing very well in the SP. As a fan I really want her to bring her best because I think this year is her best chance to place high. She gets solid scores from international judges and some of the younger skaters aren't consistent enough to overtake her. Furthermore, neither Yuna nor Mao are skating as well as they did in 2010 and if they make major mistakes Ashley could find herself in the mix for a medal.
 
Top