Which Ladies Can Skate a 130+ LP at Worlds?

YunaBliss · Feb 22, 2013

Li'Kitsu said:
A clean Caro will break the 140, no doubt.

I will bet my house that a clean Caro at the Worlds will not break 140. The Worlds is not Italian Nationals.

Skaters capable of breaking 130 -- I generally agree with your analysis.

Skaters capable of breaking 140 -- only Yuna and Mao (but they would have to be perfect)

Moment · Feb 22, 2013

Carolina can definitely break 140 if she's clean. Well I don't think she'll ever skate clean with harder technical content.

FlattFan · Feb 23, 2013

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xHmKOhVe_-s

Her LP. Huge lutz, covered a lot of distance. Worthy of +2 GOE. She doesn't need any preceding steps because everything else is first rate.
I can see some kind of hook on the landing of the 3F-3T, but I'm surprised it was called UR.

Too glaring mistakes on the 2A and 3Lo, two elements she can definitely do well on.

It's funny some people think Yuna can break 150 with 6 triples and Caro can't break 140 with 7 triples. Someone must have been dropped on the head a few times growing up. :laugh:

vera01 · Feb 23, 2013

FlattFan said:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xHmKOhVe_-s

Her LP. Huge lutz, covered a lot of distance. Worthy of +2 GOE. She doesn't need any preceding steps because everything else is first rate.
I can see some kind of hook on the landing of the 3F-3T, but I'm surprised it was called UR.

Too glaring mistakes on the 2A and 3Lo, two elements she can definitely do well on.

It's funny some people think Yuna can break 150 with 6 triples and Caro can't break 140 with 7 triples. Someone must have been dropped on the head a few times growing up.

Caro's 3T is UR IMO. One judge gave her +2 GOE for an UR jump, that would obviously not happen at Worlds.

Number of triples doesn't really matter. Yuna has three 3Lz and two 3F in her programs. Caro, on the other hand, has one 3Lz and one 3F. Yuna has harder jumps. Caro received 60 for her FS TES at Euros. Yuna received 70 for her FS TES at her Nationals. Caro had 4 triples at Euros(FS) and 5(or six, if you count the UR 3T) triples at Challenge Cup. Yuna always had six triples this season. Yuna is always more consistent and her worst FS of this season(NRW Trophy) still could receive 60+ for TES. Caro got 55 for her TES at Challenge Cup.

Really, we can't be confident that Caro would be able to beat Yuna with "7" triples. When was a last time that Caro actually had 7 triples(no UR, downgrades) in her FS?

drivingmissdaisy · Feb 23, 2013

I would think in the LP if Caro hit 7 clean triples she would beat Yuna with 6 (although Yuna hitting 6 is wayyyyy more likely than Caro hitting 7). I prefer Carolina's LP this year over Yuna's and would love to see Kostner win with true World Champion technical difficulty.

sky_fly20 · Feb 23, 2013

I doubt Yuna or Carolina can skate a clean FS
but basing on Worlds history when there is big pressure Kostner will be the one to crack on
last years Worlds she had little competition but this time it will be just like old times.

Tanja90 · Feb 23, 2013

vera01 said:
Caro's 3T is UR IMO. One judge gave her +2 GOE for an UR jump, that would obviously not happen at Worlds.

Number of triples doesn't really matter. Yuna has three 3Lz and two 3F in her programs. Caro, on the other hand, has one 3Lz and one 3F. Yuna has harder jumps. Caro received 60 for her FS TES at Euros. Yuna received 70 for her FS TES at her Nationals. Caro had 4 triples at Euros(FS) and 5(or six, if you count the UR 3T) triples at Challenge Cup. Yuna always had six triples this season. Yuna is always more consistent and her worst FS of this season(NRW Trophy) still could receive 60+ for TES. Caro got 55 for her TES at Challenge Cup.

Really, we can't be confident that Caro would be able to beat Yuna with "7" triples. When was a last time that Caro actually had 7 triples(no UR, downgrades) in her FS?

Talking about the long program the base value between the two is closer than what you think...carolina is going for seven triples while yuna six. If both skate clean the difference will be small..plus carolina had an edge on steps and they are equal on spins I should say..however kostner is more solid on her level fours for spins while yuna in the last two competitions has received some level threes....
kostner's long has huge potential...I dare to say more than yuna's. she received 126 with an underrotated combo, two popped jumps, level three on steps and no three jumps combo. I don't know if any skater has potential to reach 140 points but carolina is close to that..asi yuna and mao are...
As for the short program..it is another story. carolina's BV is below yuna's but she can count on goes and she is capable to reach more than 70 points. If she skates clean and gets those points she is on the run. Plus I would give her an edge on the components over yuna this yea but this is just a personal opinion!

jenaj · Feb 23, 2013

drivingmissdaisy said:
I would think in the LP if Caro hit 7 clean triples she would beat Yuna with 6 (although Yuna hitting 6 is wayyyyy more likely than Caro hitting 7). I prefer Carolina's LP this year over Yuna's and would love to see Kostner win with true World Champion technical difficulty.

When has Carolina ever hit 7 clean triples? Her long program is very ambitious, which means she is unlikely to skate it clean. I do like her program better than Yu Na's, which is not really saying that much, since I think Yu Na's Les Mis is her worst LP in terms of music and choreography. I do think Bolero works well for Carolina because it slows her down. But Yu Na's jumps are stellar. If Carolina gets a +3 GOE on any of her jumps, they need to start giving +4's to Yu Na!

Tanja90 · Feb 23, 2013

jenaj said:
When has Carolina ever hit 7 clean triples? Her long program is very ambitious, which means she is unlikely to skate it clean. I do like her program better than Yu Na's, which is not really saying that much, since I think Yu Na's Les Mis is her worst LP in terms of music and choreography. I do think Bolero works well for Carolina because it slows her down. But Yu Na's jumps are stellar. If Carolina gets a +3 GOE on any of her jumps, they need to start giving +4's to Yu Na!

They both are great jumpers but I wouldn't say that yuna's are better than carolina's...in fact carolina has better salchow and loop and toeloop IMO...

mateusp1 · Feb 23, 2013

Tanja90 said:
They both are great jumpers but I wouldn't say that yuna's are better than carolina's...in fact carolina has better salchow and loop and toeloop IMO...

Also, Carolina's flip is better than Yuna's(only slightly better, since Yuna flip is very good, the second best IMO, after Carolina's).

But, I have to say that, IMO, Yuna has better Lutz and Axel than Caro.

Tanja90 · Feb 23, 2013

mateusp1 said:
Also, Carolina's flip is better than Yuna's(only slightly better, since Yuna flip is very good, the second best IMO, after Carolina's).

But, I have to say that, IMO, Yuna has better Lutz and Axel than Caro.

agree

SXTN · Feb 23, 2013

The quality of Carolina's jumps is amazing when she hits.

After seeing the Lutz she performed at Challenge Cup I would not even say Yuna's is that much better.

hurrah · Feb 23, 2013

Tanja90 said:
agree

I agree with everything except the flip. Caro telegraphs her flip too much for it to be considered good. Even with her lutz, I sometimes wonder if she is on the outer edge the whole time she is setting up for the jump.

drivingmissdaisy · Feb 23, 2013

I also prefer Carolina's air position when she jumps. She is very straight in the air. They both have equally good run-out when they hit their jumps. But I think Yuna's big edge is that she is going to hit more clean triples than Caro because Kostner often makes silly errors (singling an axel, forgetting to include a 3 jump combo) that cost her a few points here and there.

prettykeys · Feb 23, 2013

mateusp1 said:
Also, Carolina's flip is better than Yuna's(only slightly better, since Yuna flip is very good, the second best IMO, after Carolina's).

But, I have to say that, IMO, Yuna has better Lutz and Axel than Caro.

At this point, one has to be splitting hairs because the differential of quality is so small that it's unlikely to translate into differences in points given to either skater. It will be whether the jumps are landed cleanly and other elements of a program that determine the difference in scoring.

BTW Carolina's 3Lutz posted above is simply "textbook". I also love how gentle her toe-pick is.

SXTN · Feb 23, 2013

prettykeys said:
BTW Carolina's 3Lutz posted above is simply "textbook". I also love how gentle her toe-pick is.

That is the best Lutz I've seen her do in her whole career. The height and trajectory is first grade.

jenaj · Feb 23, 2013

prettykeys said:
At this point, one has to be splitting hairs because the differential of quality is so small that it's unlikely to translate into differences in points given to either skater. It will be whether the jumps are landed cleanly and other elements of a program that determine the difference in scoring.

BTW Carolina's 3Lutz posted above is simply "textbook". I also love how gentle her toe-pick is.

Yu Na's jumps are higher and more powerful. No one has a more consistent 3-3. Carolina telegraphs a lot of her jumps and is lucky if she hits her 3-3. In my opinion, there is no chance that Carolina can beat Yu Na on jumps if Yu Na skates clean. In fact, I would give Yu Na a two mistake handicap, assuming she does her 3-3. Carolina may equal Yu Na on other elements (though her transitions seem somewhat lacking in her Bolero) but it will take major errors by Yu Na for Carolina to beat her. And we can't forget the short program, where Yu Na typically builds a big lead.

FlattFan · Feb 23, 2013

jenaj said:
When has Carolina ever hit 7 clean triples? Her long program is very ambitious, which means she is unlikely to skate it clean. I do like her program better than Yu Na's, which is not really saying that much, since I think Yu Na's Les Mis is her worst LP in terms of music and choreography. I do think Bolero works well for Carolina because it slows her down. But Yu Na's jumps are stellar. If Carolina gets a +3 GOE on any of her jumps, they need to start giving +4's to Yu Na!

Kim is equally unlikely to skate clean. And her program is terrible.
Yuna's lutz-toe is good. Other jumps don't get good GOE for a reason. +4 GOE for what?

jenaj said:
Yu Na's jumps are higher and more powerful. No one has a more consistent 3-3. Carolina telegraphs a lot of her jumps and is lucky if she hits her 3-3. In my opinion, there is no chance that Carolina can beat Yu Na on jumps if Yu Na skates clean. In fact, I would give Yu Na a two mistake handicap, assuming she does her 3-3. Carolina may equal Yu Na on other elements (though her transitions seem somewhat lacking in her Bolero) but it will take major errors by Yu Na for Carolina to beat her. And we can't forget the short program, where Yu Na typically builds a big lead.

What's luck got to do with hitting 3x3?
Where do these Yuna fans come from? No logic or reason at all.

FlattFan · Feb 23, 2013

hurrah said:
I agree with everything except the flip. Caro telegraphs her flip too much for it to be considered good. Even with her lutz, I sometimes wonder if she is on the outer edge the whole time she is setting up for the jump.

Telegraph a jump doesn't take anything away from the jump. You just won't get ONE bullet on the GOE list. How does that make the jump less good? Do you understand the system?

So now Caro has questionable lutz, too?
Here's a different angle at her lutz at Euro.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=YkaauH9afAg#t=46s

So odd, these Yuna fans. Seriously, where do they come from?

rkuang · Feb 23, 2013

FlattFan said:
Telegraph a jump doesn't take anything away from the jump. You just won't get ONE bullet on the GOE list. How does that make the jump less good? Do you understand the system?

So now Caro has questionable lutz, too?
Here's a different angle at her lutz at Euro.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=YkaauH9afAg#t=46s

So odd, these Yuna fans. Seriously, where do they come from?

I'm not sure why you're confused about fans. You've been on this forum for a while, so I don't see how it's a surprise that people have favorites. Kim, Mao, Kostner, Akiko all have some dedicated fans here, from what I can see. And yes, having a skater you dislike counts because it generally means they have another favorite. I'm still shocked that some people act so indignant and nonplussed when these top-tier skaters get complimented. They all have the hardware to prove it, including Kim. Problems only arise when someone else defends their favorite by denigrating another skater.

I guess what I'm trying to say is, we know all these skaters are capable of reaching 130+ if they skate their best on that day, and I look forward to seeing the showdown.

Which Ladies Can Skate a 130+ LP at Worlds?

YunaBliss

Moment

FlattFan

Match Penalty

vera01

drivingmissdaisy

sky_fly20

Match Penalty

Tanja90

jenaj

Tanja90

mateusp1

Tanja90

SXTN

hurrah

drivingmissdaisy

prettykeys

SXTN

jenaj

FlattFan

Match Penalty

FlattFan

Match Penalty

rkuang

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