Which Ladies Can Skate a 130+ LP at Worlds?

emdee · Feb 26, 2013

If Kaetlyn makes top 5 I will be overjoyed.
I will be extremely happy to see her in the top ten.
I dont think she has a hope of podium this worlds but if she improves quality and keeps consitency up she could be a contender in the next cycle with the retirement of some top skaters.

sky_fly20 · Feb 26, 2013

vera01 said:
Well, one of the worst Mao we've seen this season still scored 180+, and placed over Lipnitskaia at CoC. On the other hand, Osmond never scored more than 180+ at international competitions. Kaetlyn might be more consistent than Gracie or Adelina, but clean Adelina or Gracie won't have any problem placing over Kaetlyn. I don't think Kaetlyn's potential score goes over 190 anyway, even if her score is going to be inflated at Worlds. With no 3+3 in her FS, flutz, and no 3Lo, she's not much of a competitive skater compared to clean Gracie, Adelina, Liza, Yuna, Carolina, Mao, and even Ashley. I doubt her goal is to place inside podium-even the skaters like Liza, Gracie and Adelina won't easily get on the podium.

I never said technical was he biggest assest
Osmond will have an inflated pcs advantage at Worlds in a 70-73 pcs range rivaling Mao or Craolina's
something Adelina or Gracie wont be scoring

Skater Boy · Feb 26, 2013

Li'Kitsu said:
Then look closer
I really, really hope that Caro skates to her potential at worlds. Then people might finally admit that as a skater she is not behind Mao and Yuna.

Wagner skated clean many times and never broke 130. Besides that, while she's more consistent, Liza is a way better jumper and Adelina has still more difficulty as Ashley and better spins and steps too. Two clean russian girls should very well beat Ashley.

that's the problem, when I look closer at carolina I see more problems.

Maybe it is more consistency and I really don't think she feels the m usic or interprets bolero well at all. Just my two bits; she does have nice glide and speed. but for a person known for her jumps she has had huge tendencies to crash and burn or limit the types of triples.

Skater Boy · Feb 26, 2013

sky_fly20 said:
exactly on home ground soil
I think she can crack a 70-72 pcs rivaling Carolina and Mao's
if others falter Osmond will be a lock for the bronze

I am not so cynical to believe a technically developing skater, new to the scene will receive huge pcs bonuses in her home nation - at least not huge amounts to rival Yuna, Mao or carolina. There is no evidence to support such a huge inflation - a little perhaps but that might be the energy of skating in her home nation (Osmond). Not very realistic top 5 but she could be top 10 still she is up against 2 Americans, 3 Japanese, 1 chinese, Yuna, Elene g, Carolina and Marchesi and 3 Russians all who could realistically beat her although the odds are she will beat at least two or three still she could end up out of top ten.

Ravensque · Feb 26, 2013

I would be delighted (and likely so would Kaetlyn) if she could make top 10. Of all the skaters mentioned, she is the one who moves me the most with her total joy of skating and performing. I really don't think that placing in the top 10 is unrealistic.

Mathman · Feb 26, 2013

The skater I am most curious about is Yu-na Kim. I was surprised and delighted that she came back this year BOOM! without missing a beat technically. :rock:

But in her two appearances so far it seemed like she didn't really want to be out there in the first place. Will she bring fire and passion to Worlds?

SkateNater · Feb 26, 2013

prettykeys said:
^ I don't know if FlattFan's favourite skater right now is Carolina. She has stated that to her, Mao Asada has the better 3Loop, although to me the best 3Loop of the current top ladies belongs to Carolina (they both have excellent 3Loops; Carolina's looks like it has more height.) It's hard to say because she switches a lot. Maybe no one is her favourite.

I love all these skaters. They have brought so many wonderful performances to us to enjoy. Oh mannn was I mad that Carolina took Silver at 2008 Worlds at the time, but over the years I've grown fond and appreciative of her. Her 2005 Worlds SP is one of my favourite SP's of all. This graceful veteran of the sport with so much quality in almost everything she does... I am not crazy about her Bolero LP but she has my respect and if she puts everything together, will get a deserved monster score in London.

Also - that "personal preference" comment is just my opinion, after all. Maybe someone with stronger technical knowledge can break down what deserves to be scored or regarded higher due to whatever factors, but I cannot make that claim.

Kostner has by far a better triple loop than Asada. The take-off is pretty much text book and she actually knows how to check out on her landing, before she's on the ground still rotating. Just look at the speed that Kostner has on the run-out on her jumps. There is no jump that Mao does - period, that exists with that kind of flow. She's slow coming out pretty much all of her jumps, and judges expect jumps to enter and exit with equal (and a lot of) speed [at the elite level, as it's also a GOE bullet]. Asada doesn't do that. Asada's jump issues go beyond just some take-offs. She also has issues bringing her arms and legs in which is why she URs even with her (admittedly) ridiculously tight air position.

The problem I have with Kostner is her chronic telegraphic and very slow take-offs (similar to the Japanese ladies).

YuNa's flip is better than Kostner's. The fact that she can so consistently tack a triple toe to the back of it is a testament to her technical proficiency on that jump. Her Lutz, similarly, is better. Kostner currently won't do her lutz in a combo (never mind a 3/3). Her jumps are of good quality, though, except her Axel is a bit dubious to me (reminds me a bit of Ando's Axel jump). Her air positions are good, but sometimes her rotations are a bit slow which can lead to URs and/or falls as she does not rotate straight up like Asada (who is able to land a UR jump and hook without going off balance in many cases).

SkateNater · Feb 26, 2013

FlattFan said:
Let me clarify.
Do I prefer Carolina's flip to Yuna's flip? Yes.
Do I prefer Yuna's lutz to Carolina's lutz? Yes.
Do I wish Carolina doesn't take that long to set up her jumps? Yes.
Do I like the top 3 girls? Way more than the rest, save Akiko.
Do I like one girl in the top 3 more than the others? Yes
Do I think one girl in the top 3 are better than the other 2 in every ways? No

Caro's telegraphed jumps have SO MANY other qualities that she regularly got +2 GOE anyway. That's why I responded to a few people who clearly had no understanding of what GOE is, and kept on saying how terrible her telegraphed jumps are. If they are so bad, why do they get big GOE every time she landed them cleanly?

The problem is that it's a lot easier to get a better jump when you skate across 1/3-1/2 of the rink setting it up. Every step and transition you take into those jumps is something that can lead to an imbalance going into the jump, which can affect the jump itself. You can hit a rut, slip, whatever. Anything can happen. People who skate know the different. It's one thing to skate straight into a jump using 1/3-1/2 the rink the set up. The jump feels completely different when you take footwork into it. It doesn't feel as stable or secure, and it requires a higher level of technical proficiency. That is why skaters are REWARDED for taking transitions in and out of their jumps. It displays a higher level of balance and proficiency. That is factored into the PCS as well as the GOE on those jumps, by the way.

GOE is based on bullets. It's objective. No one would say Asada is as good a jumper as Kim or Kostner yet she gets just as much good GOE on her jumps. The judges will always fudge the numbers, as long as they have room to do so. It's the way it's always been, and it's the way it always will be.

I have a hard time stating (with such authority) that Kostner has better skating skills/transitions than skaters like Kim and even some lesser skaters, when she enters her jumps like a Novice skater.

Slutskaya was lambasted for telegraphing her jumps pre-CoP, yet this is okay?

Generally I think Kostner is a bit overrated, but that's just me. Mao is a bit overrated because of her inability to jump properly, but apparently a [dubious, and fairly inconsistent] 3A is enough to erase all those faults. Kim is a complete wild card as her history is filled with competitions where she could have won by default had she hit her programs, yet she made costly mistakes that left her as far down as 3rd or 4th place. Osmond is bleh - program overloaded like a Junior skater and people think that should equate to auto-8's or higher in PCS. Gold is unproven and we still have no idea how the international judges would score a Nationals-type program from her (cause she's never done it outside of the US as a Senior). Wagner isn't getting on the podium without a 3/3 or at least a 2A/3T unless she has help. I'm still trying to figure out what Suzuki's program is about, and Kanako shouldn't even be beating skaters like Zijun Li at this point given her issues (and she has many - e.g. I'm horrified how people can criticize Gao's posture yet ignore the posture of skaters like Murakami, which is horrible).

I am ready for Sochi to be over, because I'm totally ready for the next quad to begin. The current crop of skaters and their ubers are really turning people off from the sport. Competitions are becoming too predictable (regardless of technical faults of the skaters, this is a sport mind you) due to PCS/GOE fudging and I'm tired explaining the scoring to normal people who had no issues understanding it before this system was introduced. If you look at some of the +2/+3 GOEs being thrown out for jumps and then check the bullets you'd be hard pressed to figure out how the judges arrived at those conclusions.

Also, I HATEHATEHATE the never-ending footwork sequences that travel back and forth 4-5 times down the rink these days. Worst change ever, IMO.

hurrah · Feb 26, 2013

Actually, except for the triple-axel, which she does not train, IMO, Elizaveta’s jump technique is the best of all current ladies skaters. I truly love Elizaveta’s lutz and flip. She doesn’t telegraph, and she’s got great height and width to her jump. Her set up is short and her toe pick is not too hard or soft, but just right.

I enjoy watching Carolina as a skater, but I think that as a total package, she is slightly below Mao and Yuna. The problem I see with Carolina as an athlete is her relative lack of balance and coordination skills. She can’t, for example, arch her back and swing her arms gracefully while simultaneously turning backward on one foot. She would just lose her balance and fall if she were asked to do something like that. Thus, she totally stops in the middle of Bolero twice, to display upper body movement because she couldn’t do those moves if her blades were moving. (This is the kind of thing that Mao truly excels at. No other skater I see has the body coordination skills that Mao displays on the ice. I see Yuna has a more matched level of coordination, except that she has a stiff body so it’s not her sense of balance so much as her stiff muscles that prevents her from doing something similar on the ice.) That’s probably why Carolina telegraphs her jumps so much and to me, despite her statuesque figure, she still sometimes appears clumsy on the ice to me.

minze · Feb 26, 2013

SkateNater said:
The problem is that it's a lot easier to get a better jump when you skate across 1/3-1/2 of the rink setting it up. Every step and transition you take into those jumps is something that can lead to an imbalance going into the jump, which can affect the jump itself. You can hit a rut, slip, whatever. Anything can happen. People who skate know the different. It's one thing to skate straight into a jump using 1/3-1/2 the rink the set up. The jump feels completely different when you take footwork into it. It doesn't feel as stable or secure, and it requires a higher level of technical proficiency. That is why skaters are REWARDED for taking transitions in and out of their jumps. It displays a higher level of balance and proficiency. That is factored into the PCS as well as the GOE on those jumps, by the way.

GOE is based on bullets. It's objective. No one would say Asada is as good a jumper as Kim or Kostner yet she gets just as much good GOE on her jumps. The judges will always fudge the numbers, as long as they have room to do so. It's the way it's always been, and it's the way it always will be.

I have a hard time stating (with such authority) that Kostner has better skating skills/transitions than skaters like Kim and even some lesser skaters, when she enters her jumps like a Novice skater.

Slutskaya was lambasted for telegraphing her jumps pre-CoP, yet this is okay?

Generally I think Kostner is a bit overrated, but that's just me. Mao is a bit overrated because of her inability to jump properly, but apparently a [dubious, and fairly inconsistent] 3A is enough to erase all those faults. Kim is a complete wild card as her history is filled with competitions where she could have won by default had she hit her programs, yet she made costly mistakes that left her as far down as 3rd or 4th place. Osmond is bleh - program overloaded like a Junior skater and people think that should equate to auto-8's or higher in PCS. Gold is unproven and we still have no idea how the international judges would score a Nationals-type program from her (cause she's never done it outside of the US as a Senior). Wagner isn't getting on the podium without a 3/3 or at least a 2A/3T unless she has help. I'm still trying to figure out what Suzuki's program is about, and Kanako shouldn't even be beating skaters like Zijun Li at this point given her issues (and she has many - e.g. I'm horrified how people can criticize Gao's posture yet ignore the posture of skaters like Murakami, which is horrible).

I am ready for Sochi to be over, because I'm totally ready for the next quad to begin. The current crop of skaters and their ubers are really turning people off from the sport. Competitions are becoming too predictable (regardless of technical faults of the skaters, this is a sport mind you) due to PCS/GOE fudging and I'm tired explaining the scoring to normal people who had no issues understanding it before this system was introduced. If you look at some of the +2/+3 GOEs being thrown out for jumps and then check the bullets you'd be hard pressed to figure out how the judges arrived at those conclusions.

Also, I HATEHATEHATE the never-ending footwork sequences that travel back and forth 4-5 times down the rink these days. Worst change ever, IMO.

You lost me when you call Mao's triple axel dubious. And Mao , Caro and Yuna fans are not turning people off the sport. What turn people from the sport are people who think they are better technical callers than the professionals and then proceed to nit pick jumps to adnauseum to put skaters down

Mathman · Feb 26, 2013

SkateNater said:
Kim is a complete wild card as her history is filled with competitions where she could have won by default had she hit her programs, yet she made costly mistakes that left her as far down as 3rd or 4th place

Astonishingly, Yu-na Kim has never finished off the podium in any skating competition whatever. Not as a child, not in juniors, not in senior competitions, Grand Prix, Worlds -- never. I don't know any other skater who can claim such a mind-boggling statistic. :rock:

Edited to add: Maybe Dick Button?

clairecloutier · Feb 26, 2013

Mathman said:
Astonishingly, Yu-na Kim has never finished off the podium in any skating competition whatever. Not as a child, not in juniors, not in senior competitions, Grand Prix, Worlds -- never. I don't know any other skater who can claim such a mind-boggling statistic.

That is just incredible. Let's not forget that, for all the nitpicking about who has the absolute best lutz or loop or flip or whatever (debates which I'm finding quite boring, to be honest), the simple fact is that Yuna has by far the most consistent record when comparing her, Mao, and Carolina. She has medaled at every Worlds she appeared in. What other skater can say that? Whereas Mao and Carolina have swung from the top of podium to as low as 12th (Carolina) and 6th (Mao). Based on her record alone, it would be unwise for anyone to write off Yuna at this point. While it's true Mao and Carolina are both on an upswing lately, Yuna is still a big threat. To dismiss her as an inconsistent or "wild card" skater is baffling considering her accomplishments and abilities.

For those who haven't seen it yet, Jackie Wong wrote an interesting blog post recently comparing Mao's and Yuna's current base values:
http://www.examiner.com/article/opining-on-four-continents-reassessing-asada-vs-kim.

Jammers · Feb 26, 2013

When you look at Mao at Worlds she has only got on the podium 3 out of 6 times she has skated at Worlds. For someone considered one of the best ever that's a rather poor record.

minze · Feb 26, 2013

Jammers said:
When you look at Mao at Worlds she has only got on the podium 3 out of 6 times she has skated at Worlds. For someone considered one of the best ever that's a rather poor record.

Poor record are you jocking

The fact that you can put down the acomplishments of this youg woman baffles me.

Two gold medals poor by who's standards.

clairecloutier · Feb 26, 2013

Well, compare Mao's record to some other big names (I'll just put a few in here):

Mao: 3 medals in 6 appearances
Witt: 6 medals in 9 appearances
Slutskaya: 6 medals in 9 appearances
Kwan: 9 medals in 12 appearances
Cohen: 3 medals in 5 appearances
Kim: 5 medals in 5 appearances

From this, you can see Mao's medal-winning percentage is not as high as many others'. Of course 3 world medals, including 2 gold, is nothing to sneeze at. It's just that when you're talking about all-time greats, Mao is not quite as high up as you might expect.

minze · Feb 26, 2013

eyria said:
Well, compare Mao's record to some other big names (I'll just put a few in here):

Mao: 3 medals in 6 appearances
Witt: 6 medals in 9 appearances
Slutskaya: 6 medals in 9 appearances
Kwan: 9 medals in 12 appearances
Cohen: 3 medals in 5 appearances
Kim: 5 medals in 5 appearance

From this, you can see Mao's medal-winning percentage is not as high as many others'. Of course 3 world medals, including 2 gold, is nothing to sneeze at. It's just that when you're talking about all-time greats, Mao is not quite as high up as you might expect.

Wow what a lousy record out the best skaters in the world she was #1 twice and when she was off the podioum she was #4 2009 and #6 2011-2012. Mao should be so ashame of her record LOL. Those of you who expect perfection from skaters even the best ones are so unrealistic

SkateNater · Feb 26, 2013

Mathman said:
Astonishingly, Yu-na Kim has never finished off the podium in any skating competition whatever. Not as a child, not in juniors, not in senior competitions, Grand Prix, Worlds -- never. I don't know any other skater who can claim such a mind-boggling statistic.

Edited to add: Maybe Dick Button?

"or"

What statistic is in my post.

drivingmissdaisy · Feb 26, 2013

eyria said:
From this, you can see Mao's medal-winning percentage is not as high as many others'. Of course 3 world medals, including 2 gold, is nothing to sneeze at. It's just that when you're talking about all-time greats, Mao is not quite as high up as you might expect.

Or you could look at it like this:

Mao - 2 wins in 6 attempts
Yuna - 1 win in 5 attempts
Slutskaya - 2 wins in 9 attempts
Cohen - 0 wins in 5 attempts

If winning is more important than medaling, the other women look terrible next to Mao. I don't think that's the case, but the point is that it is silly to twist these competitive results to say Mao's career has not been up to par.

SkateNater · Feb 26, 2013

Minze2001 said:
You lost me when you call Mao's triple axel dubious. And Mao , Caro and Yuna fans are not turning people off the sport. What turn people from the sport are people who think they are better technical callers than the professionals and then proceed to nit pick jumps to adnauseum to put skaters down

No, that's your euphoric opinion.

What puts people off is when they go look at a video on YouTube and see Mao and YuNa ubers spewing racist drivel in each other's face, arguing about things that make absolutely no sense, among other things.

As far as her Triple Axel goes. We went over this in the 4CC thread. The video speaks for itself. Your "opinion" is useless in that matter (as is mine, which is really unnecessary given the video exists for all to see). Whether the judges call it or not is independent of what it actually is, right there, on the video. The judges scores said Witt was good at figures, too, but it doesn't change the fact that she was mediocre at best. Mao will always get more leeway on her 3A just by virtue of being the only woman throwing that jump right now. If it was a common element in Ladies skating I doubt people would be as lenient with it as they currently are - seeing as how it's really her only way to remain competitive these days.

It's "ad nauseum," by the way.

Mathman · Feb 26, 2013

SkateNater said:
"or"

What statistic is in my post.

The remarkable statistic is that Yu-na Kim has never, at any level, finished lower than third in any competition. That is the remarkable statistic.

It is permissible for someone to post a remarkable statistic even if that statistic was not mentioned in any post of SkateNater.

Which Ladies Can Skate a 130+ LP at Worlds?

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