Which Ladies Can Skate a 130+ LP at Worlds? | Page 9 | Golden Skate

Which Ladies Can Skate a 130+ LP at Worlds?

Joined
Aug 16, 2009
Now we're getting somewhere! :yes:

Ladies who have a 50% or better winning percentage at worlds (post World War II)

Barbara Ann Scott 100% (2 for 2)
Oksana Baiul 100% (1 for 1)
Carol Heiss 71% (5 for 7)
Peggy Fleming 60% (3 for 5)
Michelle Kwan 50% (5 for 10)
Alena Vrzanova 50% (2 for 4)
Kristi Yamaguchi 50% (2 for 4)
Jeanette Allweg 50% (1 for 2)
Rosalynn Sumners 50% (1 for 2)
Tara Lipinski 50% (1 for 2)

Did I forget anyone? :)

Is there a way to weight these statistics for consistency? After all, this isn't like counting flips of a coin. To excel in Worlds year after year has to mean more than showing up once at your peak of physical excellence and winning, as Oksana did. I'm thinking of Carol Heiss, who won gold five out of seven times; her 71% surely ought to outweigh Oksana's 100% on some scale. I'm going to recuse myself from any argument about Michelle's percentage, because I know how biased I am, but I have no special feelings for Carol Heiss's skating excellence except deep admiration.
 

Li'Kitsu

Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 29, 2011
SkateNater said:
Only difference is the Mao fans tend to get a bit more worked up by the criticism, which turns it into a much bigger conversation.

Don't blame it on the Mao fans if you're getting called out for writing nonsense :rolleye:

FlattFan said:
Her skill is questionable. Her spiral is wobbly. Her lutz is a flutz. She had no flow out of any jump.

And Midori lipped. Isn't she the greatest ladies jumper ever despite that?
 
Joined
Aug 16, 2009
Don't blame it on the Mao fans if you're getting called out for writing nonsense :rolleye:



And Midori lipped. Isn't she the greatest ladies jumper ever despite that?

Midori also jumped with a wrapped leg...and that doesn't take away from her awesomeness either.
 

FlattFan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jan 4, 2010
Slutskaya did win like 6 World Medals. 96, 98, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2005 she was on the podium. Winning twice. 3 times she was the silver medalist behind Kwan. She had a rather brilliant track record in international competition especially in the 2001 and 2002 seasons (as well as 2005) - going into the WC undefeated in the former two. She was one of the best short program skaters in the history of figure skating, especially post-puberty and to say her jumps had no flow coming out is a bit of an exaggeration. Her 2001 Worlds and 2002 Olympic short programs can still serve as technical clinics for many skaters, including in those areas where you state her as being deficient.
I will humor you
This is Irina's 3Lz-2Lo at her absolute best. Normally she doesn't have any flow out of that jump.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=zFEokjgJtzE#t=31s

Now, this is Miki's 3Lz-2Lo. And Miki does this jump day in day out for many seasons
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=dQygX_iScsQ#t=23s

Not even close.

Here are others who did 2Lo at the end
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=omkV2Za9nws#t=36s
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=xHcW7L2nOfs#t=41s

Irina doesn't have the explosion nor the speed. And she flutzed. How on earth could she be a great great jumper (2nd best) if her combo is so inferior to a bunch of girls.

Best SP skater EVER is Kim. Less elements, so she packs them with her best elements. In the LP, Kim has to do more jumps with Zayak constraint, so it feels more disjointed.

The 98 Olypmics were a bit more competitive than the 2010 Olympics, for example. The 2002 Olympics were about on par. 2006 was a bit meh but I think the move from 6.0 to CoP did have a bit of an impact there. A lot of skaters simply hadn't adjusted well to it by then.
2010 would blow 1998 out of the water. I think Kwan might sneak in for a bronze in 2010 at best, Tara would be out of top 6. Chen Lu would be out of the top 12.
2002 is the weakest year of the 4 most recent Olympics. The winner wouldn't crack top 6 in the 2010.
2006, the winner would probably get a bronze in 2010. Shizuka can definitely challenge for a gold medal in 2010 had she hit all of her jumps like she did in practice. Her presence, her skating skill, speed, jumps, spins can definitely put a lot of pressure on Kim and Asada.
 

FlattFan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jan 4, 2010
Don't blame it on the Mao fans if you're getting called out for writing nonsense :rolleye:

And Midori lipped. Isn't she the greatest ladies jumper ever despite that?

Lip, leg wrap and all. She's the best. No doubt.
The things Midori can do are incredible. She made up for all of her deficiencies.
Irina, OTOH, isn't good at most of the jumps. She can't do 3As like Midori. She can't do 3Lz-2Lo like a bunch of other girls. She can't do 3F like Carolina kostner. She can't do 3Sal like Carolina kostner. She can't do 3Lo like Mao or Carolina. She just does not have the "wow" at any element to be a great jumper.

Picking out her best jump, best element, I can think of 5-10 girls who do it better. That does not make a great jumper.
Midori, who does 3A like her? Who does 3T-3T like her? Who does 3 Lz like her? Factoring the era in which she did these elements. It's just incredible.
 
Last edited:
Joined
Jun 21, 2003
Is there a way to weight these statistics for consistency? After all, this isn't like counting flips of a coin.

Let me think about this. :) Using the coin flipping model it works out like this. Assume that the best skater at worlds has a fifty-fifty chance of beating the field. (Ice is slippery, someone might have a skate of a lifetime, etc.) Then the probabilities of achieving these results gosomething like this like this (lowest score wins).

Heiss 10.9%
Kwan 24.6%
Scott 25%
Fleming 31.6%
2 out of 4 37.5%
1 out of 2 50%
1 out of 1 50%

If I can figure out how to do it, I will try a Bayes analysis to estimate just how much better than the field a skater must be in order to achieve these results. (This does not speak to the real question, however, because it assumes that skaters appear on the scene already at their peak and continue at the same level year after year automatically. :) )
 

jenaj

Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 17, 2003
Country
United-States
We don't know because Lipinski, Fleming, Hamill, or Lynn didn't skate under the new system - at all.

We don't know about Michelle, either, because she only skated under the system once, at the very end of her career. So by that logic....



Michelle skated with those issues for quite a while (as did Tara and others like Galindo, for example) so her perseverance, strength, and drive is unquestionable. I think her "school" of skating (emphasis on artistry with "just enough" technical difficulty) died with the 6.0 system.

Michelle had plenty of technical difficulty. If she did "only" five triples it was considered a poor performance for her. She had a number of seven triple programs. She always did two triple lutzes in her long program, as well as the flip. salchow and loop, and toe, sometimes. She didn't add in things just to get points, like extra 2-axels, double axel-doubles or three jump combos. But there is no question that she could have. I would say that artistry died with the 6.0 system--for the ladies, anyway. And tech to a certain extent, too, since we aren't seeing that many more 3-3s than before and most of what we are seeing are the "easy" 3T-3T combos that Michelle was criticized for.
 
Last edited:

CarneAsada

Medalist
Joined
Sep 17, 2011
Michelle had plenty of technical difficulty. If she did "only" five triples it was considered a poor performance for her. She had a number of seven triple programs. She always did two triple lutzes in her long program, as well as the flip and loop, and toe, sometimes. She didn't add in things just to get points, like extra 2-axels, double axel-doubles or three jump combos. But there is no question that she could have. I would say that artistry died with the 6.0 system--for the ladies, anyway. And tech to a certain extent, too, since we aren't seeing that many more 3-3s than before and most of what we are seeing are the "easy" 3T-3T combos that Michelle was criticized for.
Michelle had an awful flutz no better than Asada's in her current state, so that takes out 2 right off the bat. No one has any qualms instantly discounting Asada's flutz so let's apply the same standards to Michelle before counting triples. Moreover, Michelle's jumps were sometimes close to being underrotated. For example, she should've been dinged at 2002 SLC for her obviously cheated flip. In other words Michelle never skated a program with more than 5 clean triples and often landed less.
 
Last edited:

SkateNater

Match Penalty
Joined
Jan 27, 2013
Lip, leg wrap and all. She's the best. No doubt.
The things Midori can do are incredible. She made up for all of her deficiencies.
Irina, OTOH, isn't good at most of the jumps. She can't do 3As like Midori. She can't do 3Lz-2Lo like a bunch of other girls. She can't do 3F like Carolina kostner. She can't do 3Sal like Carolina kostner. She can't do 3Lo like Mao or Carolina. She just does not have the "wow" at any element to be a great jumper.

Picking out her best jump, best element, I can think of 5-10 girls who do it better. That does not make a great jumper.
Midori, who does 3A like her? Who does 3T-3T like her? Who does 3 Lz like her? Factoring the era in which she did these elements. It's just incredible.

1. Slutskaya had much bigger flips than Kostner with more speed going in and out of them. She could also do them out of different entrances.

2. 3Sal? She did 3Sal/3Lo in 1997 and many times afterwards. I think that is a testament to her domination over that jump (the easiest triple jump, mind you).

3. 3Lo? The one she popularized out of 3 turns which Carolina now does? Could to 3Lo/2Lo as well out of the 3 turn entrance - she did this in 2005, IIRC.

4. 3Lz-2Lo? She did several ratified 3Lz/3Lo combinations. 3Lz/3Lo was her standard SP 3/2 Combo from 2000-2006.

5. Slutskaya did 3T-3T in her Nagano free skate. 1998... That wasn't the only one, either.

Slutskaya's "wow" factor were her jumps. They were HUGE. Her technique was incredible, and her air position was text book. The fact that she could even land jumps that big - nevermind after ten years, says a lot. Unlike Ito and other skaters, Slutskaya never had a major overuse injury nor did she ever break her ankle or anything like that from jumping. That's a testament to just how well she was taught to jump.

On top of that, she was one of the best spinners in the world, an area where Ito was quite weak.

Ito was definitely one of the best jumpers in history. Trying to denigrate Slutskaya is not necessary to get that point across. It's basic skating skills and spins left much to be desired, as did her awkward way of performing choreography (which admittedly did get better, but not enough to even be considered in the same class as Yamaguchi or Chen Lu).
 

drivingmissdaisy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 17, 2010
I would say that artistry died with the 6.0 system--for the ladies, anyway. And tech to a certain extent, too, since we aren't seeing that many more 3-3s than before and most of what we are seeing are the "easy" 3T-3T combos that Michelle was criticized for.

These are two of my biggest complaints with COP. As far as artistry, the ISU should have never done away with the spiral sequence. Although one of the easiest elements, it is a marvelous thing to see if done well and accented by the music. The level of difficulty is also lower, but I think with Yuna back we will start seeing harder combos, at least in the SP. With a 3Z-3T and a 3F, along with the highest PCS, Yuna will put herself out of reach in the SP alone unless the other ladies can do these three triples in their SP (or in Mao's case, a clean 3A). Even then, only Carolina and Mao will be within striking distance unless Yuna has a complete meltdown in the LP.
 

CarneAsada

Medalist
Joined
Sep 17, 2011
3Sal the easiest triple? And here I was thinking it was the 3Toe. Guess the ISU doesn't know better either.
 

Bartek

On the Ice
Joined
Dec 29, 2009
Well, those Euro titles, she won with two clean triples, and a bunch of falls.
Her skill is questionable. Her spiral is wobbly. Her lutz is a flutz. She had no flow out of any jump.
One of the best jumpers? Really?

2002-2006 were weak weak weak. She would be eaten alive in the 2006-2010 era.

So no, she's no where near all time great.

This is so ridiculous that I don't even know what to say. Are you really serious? Michelle flutzed as well but much worse than Irina. Irina had very good spirals. Spiral is not only about the extention of the free leg, it's also about the edge and the speed. In fact, Irina had the deepest edges in her spirals out of all the ladies and the best speed.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zFEokjgJtzE&t=2m8s this is wobbly, really? Have you even bothered to watch her spirals?

Irina dominated not only from 2004-2006 but also from 2000-2002. Was this period also "weak, weak, weak"?

She did have jumps with good flow i.e. salchow, loop, axel.
 
Joined
Aug 16, 2009
Let me think about this. :) Using the coin flipping model it works out like this. Assume that the best skater at worlds has a fifty-fifty chance of beating the field. (Ice is slippery, someone might have a skate of a lifetime, etc.) Then the probabilities of achieving these results gosomething like this like this (lowest score wins).

Heiss 10.9%
Kwan 24.6%
Scott 25%
Fleming 31.6%
2 out of 4 37.5%
1 out of 2 50%
1 out of 1 50%

If I can figure out how to do it, I will try a Bayes analysis to estimate just how much better than the field a skater must be in order to achieve these results. (This does not speak to the real question, however, because it assumes that skaters appear on the scene already at their peak and continue at the same level year after year automatically. :) )

Interesting, Math. Your last sentence, about the assumption that skaters appear on the scene already at their peak and continue at that level, is exactly why I brought up the matter. Oksana had a cometlike career. Her body changed and she also lessened her training regimen after that, and she probably wouldn't have remained at that level even if she hadn't turned pro. So her one try, one win isn't as impressive as seven years at or near the top, at least to me. Likewise, Sarah Hughes won the Olympics one year, first try, and came in something like sixth the next year.

Carol Heiss, on the other hand, won year after year after year, and Michelle came in first at various points from 1996 to 2003. I know that people will probably point out that consistency isn't as easy nowadays with the demands of CoP skating and the toll it takes on muscles, bones, and ligaments. It's partly for that reason that skaters such as Asada and Kim are so impressive. They've held their own through all kinds of challenges.
 
Last edited:

Bartek

On the Ice
Joined
Dec 29, 2009
Michelle's jump difficulty wasn't all that bad compared to today's ladies.

Here are the top four in the free skate at last years Worlds.

Kostner: 3Lo, 3F, 2A+3T, 3F+2T, 2A, 3S, 3S+2T+2T

Suzuki: 3Lz, 2A+3T, 3F, 3Lo+2T+2Lo<. 3S, 1Lz+2T, 3Lo

Wagner: 3F+2T+2Lo, 2A+3T<, 3Lz, 3Lo, 3S, 3Lo+2T, 3F

Leonova: 3T+3T, 3Lo, 3Lz, 3F+2T, 3S+2T, 3F, 2A

Michelle at 2001 Worlds: 3Lo, 3T+3T, 3Lz+2T, 3S, 3F, 2A, 3Lz

Granted, Michelle needs to tack on a +2T+2Lo somewhere to be a real CoPer.

Not really, because many of her jumps would get "<" and both lutzes "e"...
 
Last edited:

jenaj

Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 17, 2003
Country
United-States
Michelle had an awful flutz no better than Asada's in her current state, so that takes out 2 right off the bat. No one has any qualms instantly discounting Asada's flutz so let's apply the same standards to Michelle before counting triples. Moreover, Michelle's jumps were sometimes close to being underrotated. For example, she should've been dinged at 2002 SLC for her obviously cheated flip. In other words Michelle never skated a program with more than 5 clean triples and often landed less.

Michelle did not have an "awful" flutz. She sometimes switched to the back inside edge at the very last moment--but certainly not always. Listen to Dick Button's commentary at 2003 Worlds. I'll take his word for it. And she rarely under-rotated her jumps. I am not here to debate Mao's jump technique.
 
Last edited:

Bartek

On the Ice
Joined
Dec 29, 2009
Lip, leg wrap and all. She's the best. No doubt.
The things Midori can do are incredible. She made up for all of her deficiencies.
Irina, OTOH, isn't good at most of the jumps. She can't do 3As like Midori. She can't do 3Lz-2Lo like a bunch of other girls. She can't do 3F like Carolina kostner. She can't do 3Sal like Carolina kostner. She can't do 3Lo like Mao or Carolina. She just does not have the "wow" at any element to be a great jumper.

Picking out her best jump, best element, I can think of 5-10 girls who do it better. That does not make a great jumper.
Midori, who does 3A like her? Who does 3T-3T like her? Who does 3 Lz like her? Factoring the era in which she did these elements. It's just incredible.

Irina isn't good at most jumps?! OMG, have you ever seen Irina jump? If you say that Irina's jump are weak, what can we say about Michelle's jumps? Atrocious? Irina had twice the height: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=awOB8GytS0Q

Actually her 3Lz+2Lo is better than Ando's and than anyone else's. She had huge height, speed and "explosive" is acutally a perfect adjective to describe her jumps. Michelle didn't have any flow out of her easier 3Lz+2T and her flutz was even worse. Irina took off from a flat.

Irina had one of the best loops in history, higher than Carolina and with better speed. She was also able to put at the back end of a triple-triple and landed those many times in her career.

Her Salchow is also better than Carolina's, higher and with more speed.

You can always pick a video from youtube where a skater doesn't have much flow. You can do that with any skater. On the other hand, you can choose a performance in which she/he has great flow like this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I7ZaBmO-t4U&t=23s

Her 3Lz+2Lo is simply spectacular and to say she DIDN't have it because she flutzed is ridiculous. Applying this logic half of the ladies have never landed a lutz including Michelle Kwan.

The reallity is just contrary to what you have claimed in your previous post. Irina was one of the fastest female skaters EVER and approached her jumps with huge speed. She exactly DID have speed and explosion to her jumps.
 
Last edited:

Bartek

On the Ice
Joined
Dec 29, 2009
Michelle did not have an "awful" flutz. She sometimes switched to the back edge at the very last moment--but certainly not always. Listen to Dick Button's commentary at 2003 Worlds. I'll take his word for it. And she rarely under-rotated her jumps. I am not here to debate Mao's jump technique.

Michelle did have an awful flutz. She ALWAYS switched to the inside edge before the takeoff. If you flutz, you flutz always, that's how it is. If you are a lipper, you always lip unless you sacrifice big amount of time on fixing the problem which is in most cases impossible to fix anyway. Only few managed to get rid of flutzing/lipping. Actually I can think only of Miki Ando.

Michelle very often underrotated her jumps but in such a way thatusually it was completely indiscernible without slowmotion.
 
Top