If both clean - Kovtun looks better.
Originally Posted by silverlake22
He had good progress from beginning of season.
At early September his test skating was "falls from quad, arises and falls again".
At early October (JGP Germany) he had stable enough 4T.
At Euro (2nd half of January) he was the only skater who landed 4T+3T both in SP and FS. None of medalists did not land 4+3 both in SP and FS, Kovtun did.
His score would be about 4.5 higher if he wouldn't do the mistake - 4th combo (3S+2T), making 3S instead.
Kovtun has a chance to land 4S - he lands it at practice and tried at Nationals (where he tripled it). His progress in season gives us a hope that at March he may land 4S.
Menshov did not try 4S at any competition.