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Thread: Leonova and Kovtun get a chance to go to Worlds

  1. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by silverlake22 View Post
    Menshov's chances of competing in Sochi might be better though with Kovtun competing. Kovtun is more likely to place top 10 honestly, so if he gets 2 spots, if Plushenko doesn't compete, then Menshov may have Kovtun to THANK for his getting to compete at the Olympics. Idk. With one spot it's a crap shoot anyways, I see why they want to back the tall handsome 17 year old with killer jumps over the 30 year old with a history of being inconsistent.
    I doubt it, because Menshov has posted higher scores than Kovtun ALL SEASON. Menshov's history is irrelevant. It is his form THIS SEASON that matters. And this season he has been extremely consistent and very good, in great form, posting good scores, the judges seem to like him.

    I see why they want to back Kovtun over Menshov too...it's called an extremely political woman in a fur coat.

  2. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mrs. P View Post
    Boy I can only imagine if Kovtum does not come through with those two spots...
    Yes, a huge pressure for him..... It remains to be seen whether he can handle it.

  3. #18
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    And not all that smart of the woman in the fur coat. Kovtun could have gone to Jr. Worlds as the favorite and won, and been a hero.

    Chances are, like Ricky Dornbush when he was in a similar situation, Kovtun will go to Senior Worlds, skate well, and just not finish that high. A better place to give Kovtun the fast-track to seniors would be to send him to WTT again to get some more mileage, after Jr. Worlds.

  4. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by karne View Post
    I doubt it, because Menshov has posted higher scores than Kovtun ALL SEASON. Menshov's history is irrelevant. It is his form THIS SEASON that matters. And this season he has been extremely consistent and very good, in great form, posting good scores, the judges seem to like him.

    I see why they want to back Kovtun over Menshov too...it's called an extremely political woman in a fur coat.
    Senior and junior scores can't be compared directly. Russia needs a headliner out on the international stage before Sochi and with Plush having back surgery and dealing with the injuries and Gatchinski having whatever kind of issues are preventing him from skating well now, suddenly there is a panic on who the go-to male skater in Russia is. A 30 year old skater with a history of being inconsistent is not going to get people excited, does it really make sense to promote a skater for one season just to have him retire after the Olympics? No. And Voronov just isn't strong enough from a PCS standpoint. So that leaves Kovtun. He's 17, he has the jumps, he's handsome, he seems to have a good head for competition, he's dominated the junior circuit and held his own at Europeans, so it's not surprising the Fed wants to send him to Worlds. If he does well, people will get excited for him, see him as the new star. If he doesn't do so well, then okay, he's 17, he has time to grow, hopefully he'll do better next time. But with Menshov he doesn't get the save if he were to go to Worlds and not place top 10 - if that were to happen it would just be, what was the stupid Fed thinking sending him over the young promising Kovtun? Kovtun does well at Worlds, he gets the praise and his image is improved, he doesn't do well and he gets the save of being young and inexperienced. Sending him is actually smart in that regard.

  5. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mrs. P View Post
    Boy I can only imagine if Kovtum does not come through with those two spots...
    And the worst thing is if he doesn't, it might not even be his fault. If the field skates well, ten men could reasonably beat him (Chan, Fernandez, Amodio, Joubert, Hanyu, Takahashi, Mura, Brezina, Verner, Reynolds, Aaron, Miner, Yan)

    On the other hand, the Russian federation was right in 2009 (sending Leonova to Euros and Worlds, where she outperformed expectations and earned two spots for the Olympics, along with the world junior title that gave Russia three spots per JGP) and in 2011 (Menshov won the title, Gachinski outperformed in at Euros, and went on to win bronze at World, again securing two spots for the men the next season). So maybe they'll be right now.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ImaginaryPogue View Post
    And the worst thing is if he doesn't, it might not even be his fault. If the field skates well, ten men could reasonably beat him (Chan, Fernandez, Amodio, Joubert, Hanyu, Takahashi, Mura, Brezina, Verner, Reynolds, Aaron, Miner, Yan)
    Verner this season is in so bad state, that if Maxim skate good - it is impossible.
    Mura, Aaron, Miner - if Maxim skates good, it is not very probable that all these three beat him (1 or 2 - more probable).

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    Right now, Kovtun's SB is 19th in the standings. You remove the six men that won't be at Worlds (Abbott, Dornbush, Machida, Oda, Kozuka and one of Song/Yan), you have him at 13th. On my list, only Verner isn't represented in those twelve men. Yeah, maybe they all won't skate well, but it's an uphill battle either way.

    As it would be for Menshov.

    It makes you wonder, though. Next year, say Russia only gets one spot and Plushenko CAN'T take it. Who does?

  8. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by ImaginaryPogue View Post
    It makes you wonder, though. Next year, say Russia only gets one spot and Plushenko CAN'T take it. Who does?
    My hope is Gaschinski comes back strong and grabs it

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    Quote Originally Posted by ImaginaryPogue View Post
    Right now, Kovtun's SB is 19th in the standings. You remove the six men that won't be at Worlds (Abbott, Dornbush, Machida, Oda, Kozuka and one of Song/Yan), you have him at 13th. On my list, only Verner isn't represented in those twelve men. Yeah, maybe they all won't skate well, but it's an uphill battle either way.

    As it would be for Menshov.
    Yes, it is so.
    Only chance, no warranty.
    Federation solved that this chance is higher for Kovtun.

    Btw, Kovtun had test skate at 19th Feb. So Federation knows not only his previous results, but also how he skated sumiltaneously with Menshov, Voronov, Gachinsky.

  10. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by silverlake22 View Post
    Senior and junior scores can't be compared directly. Russia needs a headliner out on the international stage before Sochi and with Plush having back surgery and dealing with the injuries and Gatchinski having whatever kind of issues are preventing him from skating well now, suddenly there is a panic on who the go-to male skater in Russia is. A 30 year old skater with a history of being inconsistent is not going to get people excited, does it really make sense to promote a skater for one season just to have him retire after the Olympics? No. And Voronov just isn't strong enough from a PCS standpoint. So that leaves Kovtun. He's 17, he has the jumps, he's handsome, he seems to have a good head for competition, he's dominated the junior circuit and held his own at Europeans, so it's not surprising the Fed wants to send him to Worlds. If he does well, people will get excited for him, see him as the new star. If he doesn't do so well, then okay, he's 17, he has time to grow, hopefully he'll do better next time. But with Menshov he doesn't get the save if he were to go to Worlds and not place top 10 - if that were to happen it would just be, what was the stupid Fed thinking sending him over the young promising Kovtun? Kovtun does well at Worlds, he gets the praise and his image is improved, he doesn't do well and he gets the save of being young and inexperienced. Sending him is actually smart in that regard.
    Sending kovtun for the excitement factor that excitement and "shiny new toy" type thing you would damage that I'd he placed 15th. Skating well and very respectably might not be top 10. And the whole thing about him being young he will have done something to where Russia will out of a max of 3 spots have one spot for a Russian male skater at Russia winter Olympics. So that surely would dampen excitement and be real negative even if he did well. They want him and I think totally except him to do what gachinski did in a Moscow worlds in Canada. So a 30 year old skating just as well as kovtun might have been able to handle that better and with out so much excitement. Unless people really believe that enthusiasm will mean great pcs even though it's in Canada.

  11. #26
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    Is there really so much pressure on Kovtun? It doesn't necessarily seem that way, more that the Fed thinks he's comparable to Menshov now and being 13 years younger it means he's much more likely to be a valuable asset in the future, thus they are sending him out now to get exposure before the Olympics. If Menshov were to compete at Worlds and place 15th, I think that would look worse on the Federation's part and be more damaging to Menshov's reputation with the ISU than if Kovtun garners a similar placement. Objectively speaking, a clean Kovtun vs. a clean Menshov are likely to score about the same, and most likely either will need to be pretty close to clean to place in the top 10 anyways. So I guess it comes down to who can benefit most from the experience, and that would be Kovtun.

  12. #27
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    To me, the issue is not so much whether Kovtun does well at Worlds (see? we guessed right!) or poorly (aha! you guessed wrong!). Regardless of the outcome of this one contest, IMHO there should be some well-defined criteria that skaters are expected to meet to earn a trip to Worlds.

  13. #28
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    Random side note about how skating has changed. Fernandez will be the only representative for Spain (Raya's listed as a substitute only). Should he skate clean, he could land in the top two. If he does so, Spain has three spots for Sochi. We live in a figure skating universe where it's more likely for Spain to have three spots than it is for the USA to have three or Russia to have two.

  14. #29
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    Experience for kovtun if he places outside the top 10 and therefore is only one spot for Sochi and one spot for 2014 worlds means the experience is basically for 2014 worlds? If plushenko retires before next season starts then the issue of Olympic exposure for Sochi is important and worlds and beyond to peyongchang. But if there is two spots then Sochi can be useful for kovtun if he qualifies and everything. Like worlds 2014 and beyond seems too long term and not really why he is being flung into euros and worlds RIGHT NOW!! lol but this whole situation is why all seeming rules of qualification have been thrown out for men.

  15. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by karne View Post
    I doubt it, because Menshov has posted higher scores than Kovtun ALL SEASON.
    It is impossible.

    Kovtun has better Season Best than Menshov.
    See http://www.isuresults.com/isujsstat/...13/sbtsmto.htm

    Mean value of Menshov's Internatilnals (two GP Events and two Senior Bs) = 221.96.
    Score of the only Kovtun's Senior international (Euro) is higher = 226.57.

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