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Thread: 2013 Junior Worlds Men FS

  1. #196
    skating philosopher Mrs. P's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dorispulaski View Post
    The thing that takes my breath away about Jason's half Biellmann is not the flexibility (at which Martinez is better), but the edge control that lets him do a change of edge on it in the SP I'm still not sure it's possible
    Ah you mean this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HzNdNORdiC0#t=01m55s

  2. #197
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    Quote Originally Posted by karne View Post
    You have GOT to be kidding me, right?! Joshua and Jason are nowhere near the status of "failed Seniors". They are extremely good Juniors who when it came down to it, were asked to stay in Juniors by the USFSA because they DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH GP ASSIGNMENTS TO GO AROUND IF THEY WENT SENIOR. Had Joshua gone Senior, he would have only got one GP (his previous Nationals result was too low), which not only is pointless, but would have damaged his WR. Staying Junior meant two JGPs and JGPF which is miles better for his ranking scores.
    Also senior at the U.S. level =/= senior at the international level. The requirements to pass the senior free skate test is REALLY low, so that's why you have a lot of folks who compete at the senior level nationally but yet remain on the junior circuit internationally. Age limits also have a lot to do with that as well.

  3. #198
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    Quote Originally Posted by dorispulaski View Post
    Rippon's a bad example of anything, since he won Jr Worlds twice with no triple axel. He still really doesn't have a triple axel.

    At this point, Josh definitely has a triple axel, and a sometime quad.
    Jason landed all three 3A's this time at Jr Worlds, and I am hoping will continue to have that jump. He may or may not get a quad. We will have to see. His chances in US seniors are looking a lot better than this time last year.

    Neither of these guys is a Plushenko style jumping prodigy, but it is yet to be seen how far they can go on the senior scene.

    Take a look at Javier as model rather than Plu. He is 22, 4 years older than both J's. He just won the Europeans and was 4th in the GPF. He might medal at Worlds. Or not.



    Three seasons ago he was ninth at Europeans, and tenth at Worlds.
    Four seasons ago he was twelfth at Worlds and eighth at Europeans.
    Six years ago, he was thirteenth at Jr. Worlds (at 16)

    The J's might indeed reach that level on the curve they are on now. Or not.

    I seldom make any predictions about this stuff.
    Rippon landed 3 triple axels the 2nd time he won JW IIRC. The first title he won without it, but in 2010 when he beat Brezina, he definitely landed 2 in his FS, and I think one in the SP as well. The fact that he has not progressed much since should not diminish what he accomplished a few years back.

    Anyways, the Joshua and Jason situation is very different from Samantha because in the US, as a general rule, guys compete on the JGP until they age out, or perhaps the year before they age out, unless they are really spectacular. Dornbush competed on the JGP as a 19 year old in his last season of eligibility the year he won silver at Nats and went to Worlds, Ross was too old for JW when he first won bronze at Nationals in 2011 but had competed on the JGP the season before when he was 18/19, Armin moved up to seniors internationally the season before he aged out of ISU junior, but the way his birthday falls, he was still 18 for all of his final season (09-10) competing as a junior, Rippon competed at JW as a 18 and 19 year old and competed on the JGP the season he won his first title (so when he was 17 turning 18, the same age as Josh and Jason this season), Messing did JGP until he aged out, and Aaron even competed nationally as a junior during his last year of eligibility which was in 2011 when he went to JW and finished 5th (he was 18 at Nationals and 19 at JW that season, respectively) . Abbott was not competitive at the international level as a teenager, and even Lysacek competed at JW like 3 times right? so he wasn't rushed to seniors either.

    In any event, for ladies in the US, most do not compete on the JGP/JW circuit until they age out, but for men, that is the general practice. Saying Josh had no hope to be competitive in seniors was the reason he competed on the JGP this season is silly - his SB from JW last year was about 1 point less than that of Rippon and Miner and way higher than Dornbush, he beat Denis Ten easily at JW and Ten then went on to beat Jeremy at Worlds with similar quality skates. I get that Farris couldn't hope to be a World medal contender on the senior stage this season, but to say he had no shot of being competitive in seniors when he was scoring as high as the men considered the 2nd and 3rd best in our country at junior competitions shows his chances were really as good as any of the senior guys in the US right now. And he was 4th at Nationals, beating Rippon who made the Worlds team last year and Dornbush who was 5th at 4CC. Yan who won bronze at 4CCs didn't even qualify for the JGPF this season and only beat Josh by half a point at JW last year.

    Josh was not kept junior this season because he wasn't going to be competitive on the senior circuit, he was kept junior this season so Rippon, Miner, and Dornbush could each get 2 GPs because the USFS probably hoped one of them could qualify for the GPF and thought Evan and Johnny might be back too. That didn't happen and it seemed like USFS finally had a reality check, realized Josh was just as good as the rest of those guys but years younger, and didn't hold him down at Nationals so now he finished 4th, then was sent to JW which he won with a high score, and now hopefully he should get 2 GP assignments next season. Realistically he probably could have gotten 2 GPs this season if the USFS had really promoted him considering Gold with hardly any WS points got 2, but they didn't want to push for Josh to get 2 because of Evan and Johnny comebacks, none of Rippon, Dornbush, or Miner having 2 events gauranteed, and wanting to give SA to Razzano and Mahbanoozadeh. In hindset USFS may be kicking themselves for not promoting Farris and Aaron this season and favoring other skaters considering those two have consistently delivered this season while Rippon, Mahbanoozadeh, and Razzano have mostly flopped and Dornbush, Abbott, and Miner have not exactly been reliable either.
    Last edited by silverlake22; 03-05-2013 at 07:08 PM.

  4. #199
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    Quote Originally Posted by silverlake22 View Post
    Rippon landed 3 triple axels the 2nd time he won JW IIRC. The first title he won without it, but in 2010 when he beat Brezina, he definitely landed 2 in his FS, and I think one in the SP as well. The fact that he has not progressed much since should not diminish what he accomplished a few years back.

    Anyways, the Joshua and Jason situation is very different from Samantha because in the US, as a general rule, guys compete on the JGP until they age out, or perhaps the year before they age out, unless they are really spectacular. Dornbush competed on the JGP as a 19 year old in his last season of eligibility the year he won silver at Nats and went to Worlds, Ross was too old for JW when he first won bronze at Nationals in 2011 but had competed on the JGP the season before when he was 18/19, Armin moved up to seniors internationally the season before he aged out of ISU junior, but the way his birthday falls, he was still 18 for all of his final season (09-10) competing as a junior, Rippon competed at JW as a 18 and 19 year old and competed on the JGP the season he won his first title (so when he was 17 turning 18, the same age as Josh and Jason this season), Messing did JGP until he aged out, and Aaron even competed nationally as a junior during his last year of eligibility which was in 2011 when he went to JW and finished 5th (he was 18 at Nationals and 19 at JW that season, respectively) . Abbott was not competitive at the international level as a teenager, and even Lysacek competed at JW like 3 times right? so he wasn't rushed to seniors either.

    In any event, for ladies in the US, most do not compete on the JGP/JW circuit until they age out, but for men, that is the general practice. Saying Josh had no hope to be competitive in seniors was the reason he competed on the JGP this season is silly - his SB from JW last year was about 1 point less than that of Rippon and Miner and way higher than Dornbush, he beat Denis Ten easily at JW and Ten then went on to beat Jeremy at Worlds with similar quality skates. I get that Farris couldn't hope to be a World medal contender on the senior stage this season, but to say he had no shot of being competitive in seniors when he was scoring as high as the men considered the 2nd and 3rd best in our country at junior competitions shows his chances were really as good as any of the senior guys in the US right now. And he was 4th at Nationals, beating Rippon who made the Worlds team last year and Dornbush who was 5th at 4CC. Yan who won bronze at 4CCs didn't even qualify for the JGPF this season and only beat Josh by half a point at JW last year.

    Josh was not kept junior this season because he wasn't going to be competitive on the senior circuit, he was kept junior this season so Rippon, Miner, and Dornbush could each get 2 GPs because the USFS probably hoped one of them could qualify for the GPF and thought Evan and Johnny might be back too. That didn't happen and it seemed like USFS finally had a reality check, realized Josh was just as good as the rest of those guys but years younger, and didn't hold him down at Nationals so now he finished 4th, then was sent to JW which he won with a high score, and now hopefully he should get 2 GP assignments next season. Realistically he probably could have gotten 2 GPs this season if the USFS had really promoted him considering Gold with hardly any WS points got 2, but they didn't want to push for Josh to get 2 because of Evan and Johnny comebacks, none of Rippon, Dornbush, or Miner having 2 events gauranteed, and wanting to give SA to Razzano and Mahbanoozadeh. In hindset USFS may be kicking themselves for not promoting Farris and Aaron this season and favoring other skaters considering those two have consistently delivered this season while Rippon, Mahbanoozadeh, and Razzano have mostly flopped and Dornbush, Abbott, and Miner have not exactly been reliable either.
    Samantha in a "failed seniors" situation either. As I noted several times, Samantha has been sidelined two seasons in a row due to injuries. This is the first season in three years where she almost did a full season. And let's not forget that she dealt with injury this season as well (though not as severe) as well as Hurricane Sandy affecting her training time as well. It's really hard to say whether she would have been able to enter seniors internationally had she not dealt with those setbacks.

    The ladies are in a depth-but-lacking-breadth situation as well. This year along you had a half-dozen gals who could have easily made the World team.

    Also I doubt that USFSA is really kicking themselves that much over who they promoted (or not).

  5. #200
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    I don't think of a Samantha as a failed senior either, and as you point out her situation is unique because of being injured for Nationals two seasons in a row. But even with her injuries, the situation is still different because she is older than most of the other US girls competing on the JGP these days whereas Josh and Jason are not in the same boat because as I pointed out, most US men stay on the JGP until they age out.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mrs. P View Post
    Also senior at the U.S. level =/= senior at the international level. The requirements to pass the senior free skate test is REALLY low, so that's why you have a lot of folks who compete at the senior level nationally but yet remain on the junior circuit internationally. Age limits also have a lot to do with that as well.
    Precisely. Just because Russia allows 12 year olds at their Senior Nationals does not mean every country does or should.

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    The situation Russia I really find to be puzzling. I know the Federation pays for the training so that explains some of it, but like, if a young child is recognized to have a lot of talent at such a young age, do they let these children like not go to school, or go to a very altered school day so that they can train more? After watching the Russian ladies I can't fathom them being able to keep up that level of skating, or even get to such a level in the first place given their young age, while going to school all day and having to do all the same assignments their classmates struggle to find the time to do without traveling all over the world and spending all those hours training as an elite athlete. In college, fitting it all in is more feasible, and in the US, I know most skaters are homeschooled or do online programs, but I do wonder if such is the case in Russia or if these young girls are at school all day and then fit in the, presumably, 4-5 hours of daily training in between...

  8. #203
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    Quote Originally Posted by karne View Post
    You have GOT to be kidding me, right?! Joshua and Jason are nowhere near the status of "failed Seniors". They are extremely good Juniors who when it came down to it, were asked to stay in Juniors by the USFSA because they DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH GP ASSIGNMENTS TO GO AROUND IF THEY WENT SENIOR. Had Joshua gone Senior, he would have only got one GP (his previous Nationals result was too low), which not only is pointless, but would have damaged his WR. Staying Junior meant two JGPs and JGPF which is miles better for his ranking scores.

    You are only making yourself look bad with such a stupid argument. Joshua is the pewter medallist in a US men's field that was pretty good. That's hardly failing.
    No, sweetheart, I am not kidding. And the only one who looks bad here is you with your lame name-calling. "Ouch!" You should have known by now that it's hardly a weapon if you wish to talk to me. The "pewter medalist" of US nationals is not much of a title since US have two world spots only. So who cares about number 4. You yourself answered my points- they didn't have good results, so they had to stick in Juniors for obvious reasons. If they had good junior results, they wouldn't need to do that to save their ranking scores. Moreover, they should consider themselves partly lucky with Kovtun out of JWC due to known Russian problems with spots for Sochi.
    Quote Originally Posted by silverlake22 View Post
    The situation Russia I really find to be puzzling. I know the Federation pays for the training so that explains some of it, but like, if a young child is recognized to have a lot of talent at such a young age, do they let these children like not go to school, or go to a very altered school day so that they can train more? After watching the Russian ladies I can't fathom them being able to keep up that level of skating, or even get to such a level in the first place given their young age, while going to school all day and having to do all the same assignments their classmates struggle to find the time to do without traveling all over the world and spending all those hours training as an elite athlete. In college, fitting it all in is more feasible, and in the US, I know most skaters are homeschooled or do online programs, but I do wonder if such is the case in Russia or if these young girls are at school all day and then fit in the, presumably, 4-5 hours of daily training in between...
    Why didn't you find the situation puzzling in Japan when Asada was doing great in juniors? Or when Yuna was successful at school age, or when Tara won Olympics being a school teen? Oh well people...

  9. #204
    Wicked Yankee Girl dorispulaski's Avatar
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    It's amazing how much US schools will allow you to alter your school day, even for quite low level athletes. Kids in VT who were on ski teams for local mountains used to be allowed to train at the mountain half days 2 or 3 times a week when my youngest was in middle school & competing. This was in the 1980's, but I dare say it's the same now.

    The reason this was allowed is that you could only train during winter daylight hours.. Any area of the mountain with lighting at night was full of recreatinal skiers, so there was no night training; the expense was too great.

    If you were national, rather than state level, at age 12 or so you went to a private school that was entirely arranged around the kids' training. (Our kid was not that good; he didn't grow till he was out of high school.)

  10. #205
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    Quote Originally Posted by dorispulaski View Post
    It's amazing how much US schools will allow you to alter your school day, even for quite low level athletes. Kids in VT who were on ski teams for local mountains used to be allowed to train at the mountain half days 2 or 3 times a week when my youngest was in middle school & competing. This was in the 1980's, but I dare say it's the same now.

    The reason this was allowed is that you could only train during winter daylight hours.. Any area of the mountain with lighting at night was full of recreatinal skiers, so there was no night training; the expense was too great.

    If you were national, rather than state level, at age 12 or so you went to a private school that was entirely arranged around the kids' training. (Our kid was not that good; he didn't grow till he was out of high school.)
    I've heard a lot about these sports-oriented schools as well. Kaetlyn Osmond attends one of these schools in Alberta (http://vimyridge.epsb.ca/programs_elite.htm), which enables her to have a lot of flexibility for training.

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    it's quite unbelievable. He must have been working ridiculously hard on his flexibility to IMPROVE it as he gets older...that Y-spiral into the 3Lz is breathtaking!

    OMG Jason's spiral was amazing. I really took notice because he's even improved his stretch from last year. I don’t remember it being that stretched out and he has one of the best half beilmans I’ve seen.

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    When Yuna was a junior the commentators talked about how she trained between 8 pm and midnight and then went to school during the day, often going in late so she could sleep. Because of the conditions in Korea, her training hours were very unusual, and once she got to a really high level I remember hearing that she stopped going to school because she'd train all day, and did her studies on her own, obviously when she went to Canada she continued on that route. The situation in Japan is also different, when Mao was training in California I figured she was doing some kind of home school, and in Japan can't students be going to college technically but if you're an athlete, you major in physical education and it basically means you just train all the time and not are in a full load of academic classes if any at all? I remember hearing someone explaining the system as being like that.

    I know in the US, schools are very flexible about working with athletes to accomodate their training schedules. A friend of mine in highschool was a figure skater and never even got out of regionals but the school let her schedule her classes so she got out at 12:20 or 1:25 every day so she could go skate. I know Jason Brown said he goes to school between 8 and 12, and Cheyenne Mountain HS I know has sub-zero class periods I think they call it, that meet very early in the morning, to help accommodate training schedules. In Russia I don't know how the system works though and considering how most things are run there, I wouldn't be surprised if the schedule was more rigid, in which case, athletes being so accomplished at such a young age is truly astonishing if they are fitting in all these training hours between a normal school day and work load.

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    Quote Originally Posted by let`s talk View Post
    You yourself answered my points- they didn't have good results, so they had to stick in Juniors for obvious reasons. If they had good junior results, they wouldn't need to do that to save their ranking scores. Moreover, they should consider themselves partly lucky with Kovtun out of JWC due to known Russian problems with spots for Sochi.
    No, now you look foolish again. "they didn't have good results"? Hmm. Let's investigate that, shall we?

    Jason 2011-2012 season: JGP AUS - 1st, JGP ITA - 2nd (behind Han Yan), JGPF - 1st (ahead of Han and Joshua), US Nats - 9th (no 3A, 3 falls in LP), JWC - 3rd (behind Han and Joshua).

    Joshua 2011-2012 season: JGP SLO - 1st, JGP - 1st, JGPF - 3rd (behind Han), US Nats - 16th (many falls), JWC - 2nd (by half a point behind Han).

    Bejeesus. If that's "bad junior results", I shudder to think what "good" Junior results are for you.

    This season:

    Jason: JGP FRA - 2nd (behind Boyang Jin), JGP TUR - 1st, JGPF - 4th (half a point off the podium), US Nats - 8th (falls, but 3A attempts landed), JWC - 2nd (four points behind Joshua).

    Joshua: JGP USA - 1st (by 36 pts), JGP SLO - 1st (by 24pts over Han Yan), JGPF - 2nd (behind Kovtun, but skated his long program suffering an anaphylactic reaction and stuffed full of Benadryl, which makes you drowsy), US Nats - 4th, JWC - 1st.

    Kovtun and Joshua have never had a straight fight. Kovtun could consider himself lucky that Joshua was sick on LP day at JGPF, if you want to talk about luck. Or that he was lucky he has the right coach politiking in his corner to give him a Euros and then a Worlds spot he does not deserve...

  14. #209
    skating philosopher Mrs. P's Avatar
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    Eh whatever to Kovtun vs. Brown vs. Farris. Kovtum has some good traits but personally, his programs this season are pretty forgettable to me. Kovtun does have decent jumps, so that will serve him well.

    FWIW, Jason's record against Kovtun is 1-1. Jason beat Kovtum at the 2011 JGPF (Jason was first, Kovtum was 4th) while Kovtun beat Jason at the 2012 JGPF (with the reverse result).
    Josh's record against Kovtum is also 1-1. Josh beat Kovtun, also at hte 2011 JGPF (2nd vs. 4th) and than Kovtum beat Josh (1st vs 2nd for Josh).

    So the three of them have only went face to face twice at the last two JGPFs.

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    Kovtun has a consistent quad and honestly that and having TAT as a coach raised his PCS to the level of Brown and Farris which I still think is a bit because he mostly ignores the music. Compared to last season I don't think Kovtun's SKATING has improved that much honestly, but now that he is landing 4-3s and his 3a is so consistent and he has new coaches with more power, his PCS shot way up so now he can afford to just focus on the jumps because if he lands them the judges will give him marks in the low 7s. I know that is sort of how it works and while I do think he deserved to win the JGPF based on the strength of his jumping and the not so good programs put out by the Americans, I think he is being overmarked in PCS. You would think looking at his marks this season compared to last season he'd have had some artistic breakthrough, but in reality all that happened is the quad and TAT. I think he has artistic potential but it seems like he's not even trying to develop it at this point. Joshua and Jason are more complete skaters and better artistically IMO, even if the PCS marks don't reflect that.

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