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Thread: 2013 Junior Worlds Men FS

  1. #181
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    In the post above I was discussing (speculating, rather, on) various performance styles, nothing more. Whether Plushenko had or had not stamina problems is irrelevant in the context.
    As for Japanese star dimming after 2014- who knows? We might not yet know about some 8-year-old prodigy who might be the next Big Thing just ready for 2022

  2. #182
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    Quote Originally Posted by let`s talk View Post
    Both Jason and Farris are 18yo who can't make a senior national team. So they stick to skate in juniors as long as they could.
    Now that's not fair. It was the USFSA's wish that Joshua and Jason stay Junior this season. Whether you accept it or not there is some depth to the US lineup; Max Aaron didn't have any Senior GPs this season and suddenly he's the National champion. Joshua was the pewter medallist, hardly a poor showing, and he was offered the choice of 4CCs or Junior Worlds. He chose Junior Worlds because, I imagine, he wanted to win that title and achieve what he was so close to last year. Had he gone to 4CCs I'm sure he would have put in a respectable showing.

    The US is not of a mind to push its young skaters too far, too fast. They are barely 18 - Jason in December, Joshua at the beginning of January - so they have plenty of time. Russia and Japan might push their 17 year olds to go Senior. That's their business. Rightly or wrongly the USFSA determined that Joshua and Jason would stay Junior. Next year they will both unquestionably be Seniors.

  3. #183
    Wicked Yankee Girl dorispulaski's Avatar
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    A good deal of what age & point in a career to bring a skater into Seniors is a function not only of the skater's ability; there's the nature of the current rules and far too inadequate number of skaters at GP's. Josh was only going to get one GP if he had competed as a Senior this year. And invites depend partially on the season's best list and the ISU rankings list. Staying in Jrs this season, where he would get 2 JGPs, the JGPF, and Jr Worlds would yield him much more chances to rise in the rankings than a single GP and a hope (but no guarantee) of 4CC's, which is all he would have gotten in Seniors.

    According to Jason's post LP interview, he is awaiting what USFSA tells him to do about Seniors next year. He is in Josh's position from last year, but without a quad. USFSA may tell him to stay Junior one more year. They don't need Jason in Juniors-Omori looks very good, and is a year younger than Josh & Jason. I see Jason in limbo; the only one guaranteed GP, the fact that he will slip out of the top 24 in rankings post Worlds, almost surely, USFSA may keep him in Juniors one more year to work on his quad.

    let's talk, I wouldn't rule out Shoma Uno stepping up to a fine level of performance for Japan in a couple years. Also, I hope Kozuka keeps competing!
    I am not ready to give up on the Japanese men.

    In the ladies, there is more worry. Satoko Miyahara is a lovely performer, but her jumps are just not there. She reminds me of Caroline Zhang before Zhang grew, beautiful and a lovely skater, but not enough power.
    Last edited by dorispulaski; 03-05-2013 at 07:04 AM.

  4. #184
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    Quote Originally Posted by let`s talk View Post

    Both Jason and Farris are 18yo who can't make a senior national team. So they stick to skate in juniors as long as they could. It's true not only about team US but pretty much all other major teams that used to be suppliers of future stars (Russia, Japan). While Russia did great in Ladies, Japan had fiasco in both Singles. Which means one and the same thing- there won't be any super star in Japan after Sochi (Mao with Dai retirements) and the popularity of fs in J-fandom will gradualy start reducing, getting back to 10 years ago level much faster than anyone thinks. Ms. Hashimoto should be proud of herself.
    hmm. there is Shoma and Hanyu for the next quad, future stars and still very young
    the ladies there is Kanako though it might take a few years to get the depth back once Mao retires but it wont decline FS in Japan

  5. #185
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    Quote Originally Posted by dinakt View Post
    In the post above I was discussing (speculating, rather, on) various performance styles, nothing more. Whether Plushenko had or had not stamina problems is irrelevant in the context.
    I really admire Plushenko and think he’s one of the best skaters in fs history. I also think his artistry is as good as, if not better than, Lambiel. Maybe they have different artistic styles, but both are very artistic. However, I think the stamina problem has to do with the COP demand for transitions. Nowadays even Joshua Farris has more transitions than Plushenko did (I’m not saying Joshua’s jumps and artistry can match those of Plushenko, just that Joshua has more transitions). The transitions in Yuzru’s programs are at an even higher level – he and Patrick have most transitions in their programs. Plus, Yuzru also has asthma, so I think he’s already very amazing at managing his stamina.

    Quote Originally Posted by dorispulaski View Post
    A good deal of what age & point in a career to bring a skater into Seniors is a function not only of the skater's ability; there's the nature of the current rules and far too inadequate number of skaters at GP's. Josh was only going to get one GP if he had competed as a Senior this year. And invites depend partially on the season's best list and the ISU rankings list. Staying in Jrs this season, where he would get 2 JGPs, the JGPF, and Jr Worlds would yield him much more chances to rise in the rankings than a single GP and a hope (but no guarantee) of 4CC's, which is all he would have gotten in Seniors.

    According to Jason's post LP interview, he is awaiting what USFSA tells him to do about Seniors next year. He is in Josh's position from last year, but without a quad. USFSA may tell him to stay Junior one more year. They don't need Jason in Juniors-Omori looks very good, and is a year younger than Josh & Jason. I see Jason in limbo; the only one guaranteed GP, the fact that he will slip out of the top 24 in rankings post Worlds, almost surely, USFSA may keep him in Juniors one more year to work on his quad.
    I agree with your analysis, but at the same time I also think someone like Kovtun is so much luckier to go to Worlds when he didn’t even make the podium at Russian nationals. Had he skated at the Junior Worlds, he could have lost to Joshua and Jason. But he got that opportunity to go to Worlds that Joshua and Jason dreamed of but would not get… Oh well, best wishes to Joshua and Jason in the new season.

    Quote Originally Posted by dorispulaski View Post
    let's talk, I wouldn't rule out Shomo Uno stepping up to a fine level of performance for Japan in a couple years. Also, I hope Kozuka keeps competing!
    I am not ready to give up on the Japanese men.
    I also wish Kozuka keeps skating after Sochi. Kozuka’s only one year older than Machida but is a much better skater than him. However, I don’t see bright future in Shoma Uno. He’s already 15 but doesn’t even have 3F3T or 3Lz3T, let alone 3A. People used to worry about Jason’s jumps, but Jason’s jumps have always been better and now he also has the 3A. Uno OTOH… I don’t know if he’ll ever have the big jumps.

  6. #186
    Wicked Yankee Girl dorispulaski's Avatar
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    I like Uno's performance ability

    And he hasn't grown yet. With the guys, growing is not as much of a problem as with the ladies. When the guys grow, they get more power to offset the bad effects of a larger rotational moment of inertia; so some good, some bad. 15 is pretty young. One problem Jason had vs. Josh is that Jason grew later than Josh. Jason's jumps are much better than they were 2 years ago, since he grew. I'm hoping for the same for Uno.

  7. #187
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    Ok, we’ll see. Right now Uno doesn’t have the jumps, but maybe he grows late like Jason and will get the jumps someday. And does anyone know what’s going wrong with Tanaka? Two years ago many people said he would be one of the skaters to watch, but now he’s not doing well at all.

  8. #188
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    Quote Originally Posted by dinakt View Post
    As for Japanese star dimming after 2014- who knows? We might not yet know about some 8-year-old prodigy who might be the next Big Thing just ready for 2022
    Oh my god. The 2022 Olympics have nothing to do with after Sochi-2014 that I was talking about, unless you agree to take 8-years break for a J-fandom.

    Quote Originally Posted by karne View Post
    Now that's not fair. It was the USFSA's wish that Joshua and Jason stay Junior this season. Whether you accept it or not there is some depth to the US lineup; Max Aaron didn't have any Senior GPs this season and suddenly he's the National champion. Joshua was the pewter medallist, hardly a poor showing, and he was offered the choice of 4CCs or Junior Worlds. He chose Junior Worlds because, I imagine, he wanted to win that title and achieve what he was so close to last year. Had he gone to 4CCs I'm sure he would have put in a respectable showing.

    The US is not of a mind to push its young skaters too far, too fast. They are barely 18 - Jason in December, Joshua at the beginning of January - so they have plenty of time. Russia and Japan might push their 17 year olds to go Senior. That's their business. Rightly or wrongly the USFSA determined that Joshua and Jason would stay Junior. Next year they will both unquestionably be Seniors.
    The choice of Joshua is very understandable- he had zero chances in Senior level, just like Brown, which only confirms what I said- they had to stick in Junior as much as they could beause they realize that they have no chances in bigger games. And it's not like USFSA had a better choice to send someone else to Milan. I don't see any internationally competitive depth in the US field. They curently have only two spots for Worlds in senior and no one knows how many they will bring for the next season from London. And I'm not sure at all that both Js will make "unquestionably" a senior team next year. Adam was twice JWC at adult age 18-19yo, now he can't make a senior national team. As for "push their 17yo", you don't need to do it for a real talent. Plu, Yag, Dai became Junior WC at 15-16yo, who was pushing them? They won and moved to a senior level. That is what junior events are for- give teens the chance. In the current junior fields, partly thanks to the policy of some federations to send "adults juniors" there, we have an odd situation: 19yo competiting with 13yo, where the youngest ones can be potential future stars, while the oldest ones are those who failed in seniors and using their last chance in juniors.

  9. #189
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    Quote Originally Posted by sky_fly20 View Post
    hmm. there is Shoma and Hanyu for the next quad, future stars and still very young
    Sochi will be next year. I see no way that Shoma would take Dai's place of the team captain and cash cow. The same about Hanyu. Thanks to Orser he is losing free youtube viewers drastically this season, and you want people pay 20,000 yen per a ticket. Moreover, wasn't it Yuzu super ubers who sent him in retirement after Sochi? Yeah....

    Quote Originally Posted by lakeside View Post
    Had he skated at the Junior Worlds, he could have lost to Joshua and Jason.
    If your crystal ball said you so, than it's fine. In reality there is no grounds for such statement. Kovtun already beat both Js this GPF and would do it the same to those quadless adult juniors in Milan had he skated there.

  10. #190
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    Quote Originally Posted by lakeside View Post


    I also wish Kozuka keeps skating after Sochi. Kozuka’s only one year older than Machida but is a much better skater than him. However, I don’t see bright future in Shoma Uno. He’s already 15 but doesn’t even have 3F3T or 3Lz3T, let alone 3A. People used to worry about Jason’s jumps, but Jason’s jumps have always been better and now he also has the 3A. Uno OTOH… I don’t know if he’ll ever have the big jumps.
    you do realize Uno is still petite right ?
    he will still grow and he will have enough power on his jumps
    his jumps are small but not microscopic small

  11. #191
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    Golly, the way some people are taking here you would think that being 18-years-old means you're practically a senior citizen in skating!

    Seriously though, I have no clue how the discussion evolved in this direction but neither Josh nor Jason need to be ashamed of being juniors at their age. Jason himself said he was aiming for 2018 and had a five-year-plan, so this is about the right trajectory to go. It would be awesome if he got a GP or two next season, but I don't think Jason or his coach are sweating it all that much. (I mean seriously this is Jason Brown were talking about here --- the guy doesn't let much get to him).

    Regarding depth in the U.S. men: there is such -- but that's not the same thing as breadth. You have a long line of U.S. men who are at the elite level with a similar level of skill who could win at the national level on a given day, however their talent and skill isn't enough to get the results at Worlds they need for three spots (though I would love to be proven wrong! Compare that to a country like Spain or France where their top men are pretty safe because the men below them have far less technical/artistic ability.

  12. #192
    Wicked Yankee Girl dorispulaski's Avatar
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    Rippon's a bad example of anything, since he won Jr Worlds twice with no triple axel. He still really doesn't have a triple axel.

    At this point, Josh definitely has a triple axel, and a sometime quad.
    Jason landed all three 3A's this time at Jr Worlds, and I am hoping will continue to have that jump. He may or may not get a quad. We will have to see. His chances in US seniors are looking a lot better than this time last year.

    Neither of these guys is a Plushenko style jumping prodigy, but it is yet to be seen how far they can go on the senior scene.

    Take a look at Javier as model rather than Plu. He is 22, 4 years older than both J's. He just won the Europeans and was 4th in the GPF. He might medal at Worlds. Or not.



    Three seasons ago he was ninth at Europeans, and tenth at Worlds.
    Four seasons ago he was twelfth at Worlds and eighth at Europeans.
    Six years ago, he was thirteenth at Jr. Worlds (at 16)

    The J's might indeed reach that level on the curve they are on now. Or not.

    I seldom make any predictions about this stuff.

  13. #193
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    Quote Originally Posted by dorispulaski View Post
    Rippon's a bad example of anything, since he won Jr Worlds twice with no triple axel. He still really doesn't have a triple axel.

    At this point, Josh definitely has a triple axel, and a sometime quad.
    Jason landed all three 3A's this time at Jr Worlds, and I am hoping will continue to have that jump. He may or may not get a quad. We will have to see. His chances in US seniors are looking a lot better than this time last year.

    Neither of these guys is a Plushenko style jumping prodigy, but it is yet to be seen how far they can go on the senior scene.

    Take a look at Javier as model rather than Plu. He is 22, 4 years older than both J's. He just won the Europeans and was 4th in the GPF. He might medal at Worlds. Or not.



    Three seasons ago he was ninth at Europeans, and tenth at Worlds.
    Four seasons ago he was twelfth at Worlds and eighth at Europeans.
    Six years ago, he was thirteenth at Jr. Worlds (at 16)

    The J's might indeed reach that level on the curve they are on now. Or not.

    I seldom make any predictions about this stuff.
    You're probably right not to do so. There's no one-size-fits-all mold of a successful figure skating career. As you pointed out Doris, some are early prodigies (i.e. Plushenko, Chan, Hanyu) and others develop their career in a slow and steady manner (i.e. Miner, Abbott, Fernandez).

    And also, as you have pointed in the past, Doris, some skaters are worth enjoying regardless of their career trajectory. Jonathan Cassar will retire having never medaled at Nationals, but I think a lot of people have enjoyed his presence over the years.

    I think Jason and Josh will have their fans regardless of what happens, but my hope (and belief) is that they will do well in the long run.

    As an aside, one thing going for Jason is that Kori is smart about not overworking his body. I guess before she was a coach her background was actually on the sports medicine side, so I think this will help Jason greatly as he's trying to develop a quad and incorporate it in his programs.

    Also it's worth noting that Jason has gotten MORE flexible as he's grown/gets older. Just look at his half-bileman camel spin...the extension now compared to a few years back is incredible. Usually, skaters lose their flexibility as they get older, the fact Jason has been able to not only maintain that flexibility but even improve it indicates he's doing some good off-ice training.

    Sorry this is sort of a stream of consciousness post....

  14. #194
    Wicked Yankee Girl dorispulaski's Avatar
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    The thing that takes my breath away about Jason's half Biellmann is not the flexibility (at which Martinez is better), but the edge control that lets him do a change of edge on it in the SP I'm still not sure it's possible

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    Quote Originally Posted by let`s talk View Post
    The choice of Joshua is very understandable- he had zero chances in Senior level, just like Brown, which only confirms what I said- they had to stick in Junior as much as they could beause they realize that they have no chances in bigger games.

    ....

    In the current junior fields, partly thanks to the policy of some federations to send "adults juniors" there, we have an odd situation: 19yo competiting with 13yo, where the youngest ones can be potential future stars, while the oldest ones are those who failed in seniors and using their last chance in juniors.

    You have GOT to be kidding me, right?! Joshua and Jason are nowhere near the status of "failed Seniors". They are extremely good Juniors who when it came down to it, were asked to stay in Juniors by the USFSA because they DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH GP ASSIGNMENTS TO GO AROUND IF THEY WENT SENIOR. Had Joshua gone Senior, he would have only got one GP (his previous Nationals result was too low), which not only is pointless, but would have damaged his WR. Staying Junior meant two JGPs and JGPF which is miles better for his ranking scores.

    You are only making yourself look bad with such a stupid argument. Joshua is the pewter medallist in a US men's field that was pretty good. That's hardly failing.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mrs. P View Post
    As an aside, one thing going for Jason is that Kori is smart about not overworking his body. I guess before she was a coach her background was actually on the sports medicine side, so I think this will help Jason greatly as he's trying to develop a quad and incorporate it in his programs.
    This does give me a lot of hope for his longevity. I have higher hopes for Joshua's longevity too now that he's away from Tom Z.

    Quote Originally Posted by dorispulaski View Post
    The thing that takes my breath away about Jason's half Biellmann is not the flexibility (at which Martinez is better), but the edge control that lets him do a change of edge on it in the SP I'm still not sure it's possible
    it's quite unbelievable. He must have been working ridiculously hard on his flexibility to IMPROVE it as he gets older...that Y-spiral into the 3Lz is breathtaking!

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