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Thread: GP Speculation 2013-2014. The men

  1. #1
    skating philosopher
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    GP Speculation 2013-2014. The men

    I realize the season's not over yet, but thought it would be good to check in now that Jr. Worlds is over.

    Here's the current top 24:

    1 274.87 Javier FERNANDEZ ESP European Championships 2013 26.01.2013
    2 269.40 Daisuke TAKAHASHI JPN ISU Grand Prix Final 2012/13 08.12.2012
    3 264.29 Yuzuru HANYU JPN ISU Grand Prix Final 2012/13 08.12.2012
    4 262.35 Patrick CHAN CAN ISU GP Rostelecom Cup 2012 10.11.2012
    5 253.27 Takahiko KOZUKA JPN ISU Grand Prix Final 2012/13 08.12.2012
    6 250.55 Kevin REYNOLDS CAN ISU Four Continents Championships 2013 09.02.2013
    7 250.53 Florent AMODIO FRA European Championships 2013 26.01.2013
    8 243.52 Michal BREZINA CZE European Championships 2013 26.01.2013
    9 238.34 Nobunari ODA JPN ISU GP Skate Canada International 2012 27.10.2012
    10 236.92 Tatsuki MACHIDA JPN ISU GP Cup of China 2012 03.11.2012
    11 235.37 Ross MINER USA ISU GP NHK Trophy 2012 24.11.2012
    12 235.22 Han YAN CHN ISU Four Continents Championships 2013 09.02.2013
    13 234.65 Max AARON USA ISU Four Continents Championships 2013 09.02.2013
    14 234.04 Richard DORNBUSH USA ISU Four Continents Championships 2013 09.02.2013
    15 232.47 Brian JOUBERT FRA European Championships 2013 26.01.2013
    16 230.68 Takahito MURA JPN ISU GP Trophee Bompard 2012 17.11.2012
    17 228.46 Nan SONG CHN ISU Four Continents Championships 2013 09.02.2013
    18 228.32 Joshua FARRIS USA World Junior Championships 2013 02.03.2013
    19 227.63 Jeremy ABBOTT USA ISU GP Trophee Bompard 2012 17.11.2012
    20 226.57 Maxim KOVTUN RUS European Championships 2013 26.01.2013
    21 224.15 Jason BROWN USA World Junior Championships 2013 02.03.2013
    22 223.72 Konstantin MENSHOV RUS ISU GP Rostelecom Cup 2012 10.11.2012
    23 222.00 Nathan CHEN USA ISU JGP Austria 2012 15.09.2012
    24 217.61 Sergei VORONOV RUS ISU GP Cup of China 2012 03.11.2012

    As you can see, Jason Brown, is now #21 and Josh is #18. Could four skaters push Jason out of the top 24?

    Here are the skaters below him that will be at Worlds (and could improve on their SB):

    29 203.70 Denis TEN KAZ ISU GP Skate Canada International 2012 27.10.2012
    31 201.99 Andrei ROGOZINE CAN ISU Four Continents Championships 2013 09.02.2013
    32 201.71 Misha GE UZB ISU Four Continents Championships 2013 09.02.2013
    36 197.36 Tomas VERNER CZE ISU GP Hilton HHonors Skate America 2012 20.10.2012
    38 194.77 Viktor PFEIFER AUT European Championships 2013 26.01.2013
    45 187.96 Peter LIEBERS GER European Championships 2013 26.01.2013

    In addition, Menshov and Voronov will both be at WTT, which I believe also counts toward SBs:

    22 223.72 Konstantin MENSHOV RUS ISU GP Rostelecom Cup 2012 10.11.2012
    24 217.61 Sergei VORONOV RUS ISU GP Cup of China 2012 03.11.2012


    Out of everyone on that list, I think the ones most likely to improve enough to beat Brown in the SB's list is Ten, Menshov and Voronov. And Ten has been quite inconsistent this season -- as you can see his SB is from way back form Skate Canada and he has actually done worse as the season progressed. So I think Brown's top 24 will stick, but we shall see.

    Anyway, let's discuss!

  2. #2
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    Rippon could also go to WTT and have a chance to improve his SB, but it's not given that he'd score over 224 there anyways, last season to SB was 222 so it actually might be a stretch. Jason is probably safe. Verner and Ten are capable of scoring higher than 224 at Worlds but they are both so inconsistent and have had very lousy seasons thus far so I don't see it happening. So in that case, even if Menshov, Voronov, and Rippon were to pass him (I think it's unlikely the latter 2 would at this point anyways), he'd still be fine. So GP for Josh and Jason next season! Please USFS. No more juniors for those two.

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    I think a 224 is definitely safe for Jason at this point. I'm so pleased. Hopefully they get their one and then get invited to a second each - even if they had to face each other at Skate America.

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    These rankings are utterly useless. For Javier to be ranked 1st when his highest placement ever at Worlds is 9th is

    Oops I thought these were the World rankings... nevermind

  5. #5
    skating philosopher
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    Quote Originally Posted by drivingmissdaisy View Post
    These rankings are utterly useless. For Javier to be ranked 1st when his highest placement ever at Worlds is 9th is

    Oops I thought these were the World rankings... nevermind
    LOL. I'll go ahead and put the World Rankings as it also counts toward GP slots.

  6. #6
    skating philosopher
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    Okay guys, here's the World Ranking post Jr. Worlds:

    1.) Patrick Chan 4448
    2.) Yuzuru Hanyu 4331
    3.) Daisuke Takahashi 3996
    4.) Javier Fernandez 3848
    5.) Michal Brezina 3610
    6.) Takahiko Kozuka 2913
    7.) Jeremy Abbott 2822
    8.) Florent Amodio 2751
    9.) Artur Gachinski 2688
    10.) Tatsuki Machida 2564
    11.) Brian Joubert 2483
    12.) Takahito Mura 2458
    13.) Noburnari Oda 2446
    14.) Ross Miner 2391
    15.) Denis Ten 2387
    16.) Kevin Reynolds 2339
    17.) Tomas Verner 2331
    18.) Konstantin Menshov 2551
    19.) Alexander Majorov 2214
    20.) Han Yan 2191
    21.) Richard Dornbush 2173
    22.) Adam Rippon 2101
    23.) Joshua Farris 2049
    24.) Jason Brown 1960
    ----
    25.) Nan Song 1912
    26.) Chafik Besseghier 1882
    27.) Max Aaron 1817
    28.) Maxim Kovtum 1656
    29.) Peter Liebers 1568
    30.) Sergei Voronov 1521
    31.) Misha Ge 1512
    32.) Armin Mahbanoozadeh 1498
    32.) Andrei Rogozine 1498
    34.) Jorik Hendrickx 1457
    35.) Keiji Tanaka 1445
    36.) Ryuju Hino 1398

    Among those on the bubble (next 12 ranked below the top 24): Song, Aaron, Kovtum, Libers, Ge, Rogozine and Hendrickx could move up given that they will be at Worlds.
    Among the top 24: Chan, Hanyu, Takahashi, Fernandez, Brezina, Joubert, Mura, Miner, Ten, Reynolds, Verner and Majorov can also up their World Ranking. Though it's worth noting that depending on their placement at Worlds, they might not gain any World ranking points (the highest among Worlds/4CC/EC counts). For example for Kevin Reynolds to get more world ranking points, he would basically have to finish in the Top 4 at Worlds. Sure he won 4CC and anything could happen, but that placement is highly unlikely.
    Chan, on the other hand, can gain up to 1,200 more points (1st place finish) since he did not compete at 4CC.

    For the record, here's the the minimum ranking required at Worlds to yield any extra ranking points).

    Chan: 24th
    Hanyu: 5th
    Takahashi: 10th
    Fernandez: 4th
    Brezina: 8th
    Amodio: 5th
    Joubert: 7th
    Mura: 11th
    Miner: 12th
    Ten: 15th
    Reynolds: 4th
    Verner: 14th
    Majorov: 9th
    Song: 9th
    Aaron: 7th
    Kovtum: 8th
    Liebers: 13th
    Ge: 14th
    Rogozine: 13th
    Hendrickx: 24th
    Last edited by Mrs. P; 03-03-2013 at 01:28 PM.

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    That is not the world ranking that will be used for the 2013-2014 GP. You have to keep in mind that after this season is over all the points from 10-11 season will be scrapped and ONLY AFTER the ranking is updated the top 24 are selected for Grand Prix assignments.

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by SamuraiKike View Post
    That is not the world ranking that will be used for the 2013-2014 GP. You have to keep in mind that after this season is over all the points from 10-11 season will be scrapped and ONLY AFTER the ranking is updated the top 24 are selected for Grand Prix assignments.
    Right. Someone asked for the ranks so I posted them, but you are correct. Until World's and WTT is done, this is what we got for now...It's probably worth an analysis who will go down dramatically with the drop of the 2010-2011 points. Gachinski, I believe will be one of them. He's currently in the top 10, but once his World bronze ranking points are gone he'll go down quite a bit, though he'll probably stay in the top 24.
    Last edited by Mrs. P; 03-04-2013 at 11:23 AM.

  9. #9
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    One thing we can do is predict the top 12 at Worlds, as they will get two spots on the GP. That's 24 out of 60 spots (40 percent).

    Thoughts?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mrs. P View Post
    One thing we can do is predict the top 12 at Worlds, as they will get two spots on the GP. That's 24 out of 60 spots (40 percent).

    Thoughts?
    First of all, thanks for listing everything out like this. It's really interesting. I think the top twelve at Worlds, in no particular order, will be:
    1 Chan
    2 Hanyu
    3 Takahashi
    4 Fernandez
    5 Amodio
    6 Brezina
    7 Joubert
    8 Mura
    9 Miner
    10 Aaron
    11 Reynolds
    12 Song

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    Here's how the current Men's ISU Rankings would look after the old data is scrubbed and last year's data is reduced to 70% of its value.
    Men shown in bold will compete at 2013 Worlds, so their points will go up. However, the RANKING list is not affected by the WTT as it is a TEAM event.

    1 3670 Yuzuru HANYU
    2 3221 Javier FERNANDEZ
    3 3146 Daisuke TAKAHASHI
    4 2893 Michal BREZINA
    5 2728 Patrick CHAN
    6 2106 Florent AMODIO
    7 2019 Ross MINER
    8 1951 Kevin REYNOLDS
    9 1896 Denis TEN

    10 1829 Jeremy ABBOTT
    11 1815 Han YAN
    12 1810 Richard DORNBUSH
    13 1758 Tatsuki MACHIDA
    14 1754 Joshua FARRIS
    15 1696 Takahiko KOZUKA
    16 1692 Brian JOUBERT
    17 1681 Takahito MURA

    18 1675 Konstantin MENSHOV
    19 1669 Alexander MAJOROV
    20 1659 Jason BROWN
    21 1505 Maxim KOVTUN
    22 1487 Nobunari ODA
    23 1450 Nan SONG
    24 1447 Tomas VERNER
    25 1360 Sergei VORONOV
    26 1320 Adam RIPPON
    27 1275 Michael Christian MARTINEZ
    28 1274 Chafik BESSEGHIER
    29 1268 Misha GE
    30 1232 Peter LIEBERS
    31 1202 Max AARON

    32 1190 Ryuju HINO
    33 1109 Artur GACHINSKI
    34 1044 Shoma UNO
    35 1037 Martin RAPPE
    36 1011 Shotaro OMORI
    37 921 Keiji TANAKA
    38 917 Kim LUCINE
    39 845 Boyang JIN
    40 814 Zoltan KELEMEN
    41 800 Viktor PFEIFER

    42 795 Mikhail KOLYADA
    43 775 Armin MAHBANOOZADEH
    44 768 Jorik HENDRICKX
    45 767 Justus STRID

    46 756 June Hyoung LEE
    47 755 Romain PONSART
    48 740 Daisuke MURAKAMI
    49 732 Paolo BACCHINI
    50 709 Nam NGUYEN

    It looks as if Josh Farris is pretty safe for top 24, but Jason Brown is on the bubble.
    Last edited by chuckm; 03-04-2013 at 02:41 PM.

  12. #12
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    As expected, Gachinski drops, but wow didn't expect that big of a drop --9th to 33rd! Yikes!

    Jason is on the bubble, but he should be OK because even if he's just outside the top 24, he should be okay as likely half of the top 24 will already get two events due to finishing 12th or higher at Worlds.

    Thanks for putting together this info, chuckm.

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    At the end of the season both Adam Rippon and Artur Gachinski will be definetly OUT of both Top 24 lists so they won't be guaranteed any GP event.

    So unless after filling all the guaranteed spots another Fed decides to invite them, they can only hope for a host pick. They will be high enough on the substitute lists though if they don't get a second assignment at first announcement.

    Tomas Verner is also on the bubble . If Aaron gets 7th or higher at Worlds he wont get a guaranteed event and he is not from a Host federation to get host picks.
    Last edited by SamuraiKike; 03-06-2013 at 12:08 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by SamuraiKike View Post
    Artur Gachinski will be definetly OUT of both Top 24 lists so they won't be guaranteed any GP event.

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    I´d expect Kovtun, Song and Aaron to rise up on the list a lot. Perhaps even Verner will give us a positive surprise at Worlds?
    Last edited by Jaana; 03-06-2013 at 03:31 AM.

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