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Thread: GP Speculation 2013-2014. The men

  1. #31
    skating philosopher Mrs. P's Avatar
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    Also, the following top six from Worlds is seeded:
    Patrick CHAN
    Denis TEN
    Javier FERNANDEZ
    Yuzuru HANYU
    Kevin REYNOLDS
    Daisuke TAKAHASHI

    Those ranked 1-3 can't face each other. Neither can 4-6. Of course federations can do some deals and actually not enforced the rule as we saw last year.

    As each GP has 10 spots, we have 60 spots up for grabs. With the top 12 getting two spots guaranteed, that takes up 24 of the 60 spots, leaving 36 spots left to spread.

    13 skaters are guaranteed a spot based on the SB/WR list (Chen is too young), we're down to 23 spots. I think it's very likely that this group of 13 will get a second GP invite, depending on how many of the 18 host picks are given to those who wouldn't qualify otherwise.

  2. #32
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    Because HOST PICK is the first step in the process, it IS possible for 1-3 or 4-6 seeds to face each other.

    Last season, Japan picked Takahashi and Hanyu, the #2 and #3 seeds, for NHK. This year, USFS could pick Gold and Wagner for Skate America, but they probably won't.

    But a host pick is the only way this can happen. And if one host picks two seeds in the same bracket, then another host isn't going to get a competitor from that bracket. So if USFS did pick #5 Wagner and #6 Gold, then one of the other hosts is going to have two 1-3 seeds at its event.

  3. #33
    skating philosopher Mrs. P's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by chuckm View Post
    Because HOST PICK is the first step in the process, it IS possible for 1-3 or 4-6 seeds to face each other.

    Last season, Japan picked Takahashi and Hanyu, the #2 and #3 seeds, for NHK. This year, USFS could pick Gold and Wagner for Skate America, but they probably won't.

    But a host pick is the only way this can happen. And if one host picks two seeds in the same bracket, then another host isn't going to get a competitor from that bracket. So if USFS did pick #5 Wagner and #6 Gold, then one of the other hosts is going to have two 1-3 seeds at its event.

    In theory Chan and Reynolds could both be in Skate Canada since they are 1 and 5. But I hope they are smarter than that and maximize spots for their other skaters.
    And it looks like JSF could do a Hanyu/Takahashi NHK again, though that would be silly.

  4. #34
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    Quite devastated for Artur Gachinski. His only hope for a GP at all this season is to be chosen to do CoR; and given the federation's attitude towards him I rather fear that he will be ditched even from that in favour of having, perhaps, a Kovtun-Menshov-Voronov field.

    Hoping very much for Brown and Johnson to get SkAm host picks, that way Brown might end up with two and Johnson gets his first GP! Also looking forward to Max Aaron's GP debut - I wonder how often that has happened, that the National champion has not yet made his debut on the Senior GP.

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    Jason Brown is on the top 24 lists for season's best AND world ranking (albeit it at the bottom of both), so I think he might be able to get 2 GP spots without SA, in which case USFS could then give the other host spot to someone like Mahbanoozadeh or Messing, or perhaps Rippon even as he's not on either top 24 list and therefore has no gauranteed assignments (though I would think he would probably get invited to 1 anyways), so he might need SA to get even 1 event.

  6. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mrs. P View Post
    In theory Chan and Reynolds could both be in Skate Canada since they are 1 and 5. But I hope they are smarter than that and maximize spots for their other skaters.
    And it looks like JSF could do a Hanyu/Takahashi NHK again, though that would be silly.
    If Skate Canada was smart, they would send Chan to Skate Canada and Reynolds to NHK. Reynolds is loved in Japan for his jumping ability and of course the 4CC win boosts his stock. If he's to push for a medal at Sochi he needs to also defeat Takahashi and Hanyu again, and that's a great place to do it should either Hanyu/Takahashi show up.

  7. #37
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    Reynolds isn't going to medal at Sochi unless he improves his technique. You can't win an Olympic medal with underrotated quads and 3as. He got lucky at 4CC with a lenient tech panel, but you aren't likely to see that in Sochi.

    Reynolds skated at NHK this past season, and he was defeated by Hanyu and Takahashi, as well as by Miner, Fernandez and Dornbush.
    This season, if Japan chooses as host picks 4th and 6th seeded Hanyu and Takahashi, they can't pick Reynolds (only two seeds per event). Even if they host pick just one of them, they can't invite Reynolds, because he is in the same seed bracket.

  8. #38
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    I'd love to see Alex Johnson at Skate America. He's earned a spot with his magnificent performance at Nationals and his silver International B medal. I hope he gets another shot at a "B" before SA.

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    Ricky I would like to see with 2 GPs this season because he has so much potential and has done fairly well throughout the season. COR was the only big letdown, he was very good at Finlandia and 4CCs. And he's trying 3 quads between his 2 programs and has a decent hit rate, so you've got to admire that.

    I don't mind if Ross gets 2 GPs and won't be surprised if he does, I more just see it as, he had a chance to get 2 GPs at Worlds, all he had to do was skate decent to beat meltdown Amodio or even Peter Liebers, and he would have secured himself 2 spots, but considering he blew that chance and was only 14th, I more feel like if he doesn't get 2 GPs then it won't be a wuzrobbed situation because now the only way to get 2 spots secured for sure is to place top 12 at Worlds and he didn't, and he was fairly marked at Worlds too so it's not a question of Chanflation and such. 10th place would have been hard, beating Brezina, 6th place for 3 spots, beating Takahashi, was a pipe dream and likely out of his reach, but 12th place, even 11th, those scores were WELL within his reach but it just didn't happen. Ross was great at NHK and that gives him a nice SB and boosted up his World Standings, but apart from that competition and Nationals where he was pretty good but not great, he's been lukewarm to not-so-good at all his other major events this season (SLC, SC, 4CC, Worlds). 4CC was the situation of another missed opportunity, the Japanse men bombed, Kevin Reynolds of all people easily won, and Miner wound up only 9th. So if he gets 2 spots fine, but if he only gets 1 that's also fine, this season has been just okay for him. Getting only 1 spot might be better anyways to motivate him to get back on the horse, work on his technique, and show he really deserves to get 2 GPs in future seasons.

    Jeremy I don't care that much about 1 event versus 2, but he will almost certainly get 2 anyways. Yes he is a headcase, but his WS and longevity will help him, and to be honest he does still score pretty well when he messes up a fair number of his jumps, and I actually think that's okay because he is the strongest US man in the artistry department by quite a long way at this points, and it's probably his last season anyways.

  10. #40
    skating philosopher Mrs. P's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by silverlake22 View Post
    Ricky I would like to see with 2 GPs this season because he has so much potential and has done fairly well throughout the season. COR was the only big letdown, he was very good at Finlandia and 4CCs. And he's trying 3 quads between his 2 programs and has a decent hit rate, so you've got to admire that.

    I don't mind if Ross gets 2 GPs and won't be surprised if he does, I more just see it as, he had a chance to get 2 GPs at Worlds, all he had to do was skate decent to beat meltdown Amodio or even Peter Liebers, and he would have secured himself 2 spots, but considering he blew that chance and was only 14th, I more feel like if he doesn't get 2 GPs then it won't be a wuzrobbed situation because now the only way to get 2 spots secured for sure is to place top 12 at Worlds and he didn't, and he was fairly marked at Worlds too so it's not a question of Chanflation and such. 10th place would have been hard, beating Brezina, 6th place for 3 spots, beating Takahashi, was a pipe dream and likely out of his reach, but 12th place, even 11th, those scores were WELL within his reach but it just didn't happen. Ross was great at NHK and that gives him a nice SB and boosted up his World Standings, but apart from that competition and Nationals where he was pretty good but not great, he's been lukewarm to not-so-good at all his other major events this season (SLC, SC, 4CC, Worlds). 4CC was the situation of another missed opportunity, the Japanse men bombed, Kevin Reynolds of all people easily won, and Miner wound up only 9th. So if he gets 2 spots fine, but if he only gets 1 that's also fine, this season has been just okay for him. Getting only 1 spot might be better anyways to motivate him to get back on the horse, work on his technique, and show he really deserves to get 2 GPs in future seasons.

    Jeremy I don't care that much about 1 event versus 2, but he will almost certainly get 2 anyways. Yes he is a headcase, but his WS and longevity will help him, and to be honest he does still score pretty well when he messes up a fair number of his jumps, and I actually think that's okay because he is the strongest US man in the artistry department by quite a long way at this points, and it's probably his last season anyways.
    So Ricky getting to GPs because of "potential" based two decent competitions, one that was really early in the season yet Ross has had lukewarm/bad competitions (and still manage to top Ricky in the SB list and beat him at Nationals for two straight years) and has no potential? How does that make any sense?

    And Ricky does NOT Have a great hit rate on his quads considering he is trying to do three of them.

    Finlanda -- hit one quad out of three attempts (popped one, fell on the other)
    Cup of Russia -- hit one quad in the SP.
    NHK -- hit none
    Nationals -- hit one in the FS; ended up changing the other two into triples
    4CC -- hit one in the SP and one in the FS.

    It's OK at best and next to Max Aaron's quad hit rate, it's downright dismal.

    I will grant you that Richard's hit rate is better than Ross' (Ross did one in the FS in NHK and Nationals) but still, despite that he has only beat Ross ONCE in three competitions.

    Look, I'm not trying to hate on Richard, and I actually loved his Sherlock Holmes program (in fact it was one of the 2011 programs I watched multiple times), but the fact you're giving Richard a pass when he's had much more up and down results since then yet advocate to dump Miner for doing poorly at 4CC/Worlds despite having decent results at other competitions in the last three seasons really makes me

    And considering the fact that Richard got two GPs this year despite having a SB THIRTY POINTS lower than Ross (and wasn't even in the top 24 at that), I think it's perfectly reasonable for Ross to get two next season.

    For the record, I'm taking the issue of the idea of Richard getting 2 GPs but not Miner, not that Richard gets 2 GPs in general. Richard was in the top 24 SB list, so I'm fine with him getting 2 GPS.

  11. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by silverlake22 View Post
    Ricky I would like to see with 2 GPs this season because he has so much potential and has done fairly well throughout the season. COR was the only big letdown, he was very good at Finlandia and 4CCs. And he's trying 3 quads between his 2 programs and has a decent hit rate, so you've got to admire that.

    I don't mind if Ross gets 2 GPs and won't be surprised if he does, I more just see it as, he had a chance to get 2 GPs at Worlds, all he had to do was skate decent to beat meltdown Amodio or even Peter Liebers, and he would have secured himself 2 spots, but considering he blew that chance and was only 14th, I more feel like if he doesn't get 2 GPs then it won't be a wuzrobbed situation because now the only way to get 2 spots secured for sure is to place top 12 at Worlds and he didn't, and he was fairly marked at Worlds too so it's not a question of Chanflation and such. 10th place would have been hard, beating Brezina, 6th place for 3 spots, beating Takahashi, was a pipe dream and likely out of his reach, but 12th place, even 11th, those scores were WELL within his reach but it just didn't happen. Ross was great at NHK and that gives him a nice SB and boosted up his World Standings, but apart from that competition and Nationals where he was pretty good but not great, he's been lukewarm to not-so-good at all his other major events this season (SLC, SC, 4CC, Worlds). 4CC was the situation of another missed opportunity, the Japanse men bombed, Kevin Reynolds of all people easily won, and Miner wound up only 9th. So if he gets 2 spots fine, but if he only gets 1 that's also fine, this season has been just okay for him. Getting only 1 spot might be better anyways to motivate him to get back on the horse, work on his technique, and show he really deserves to get 2 GPs in future seasons.

    Jeremy I don't care that much about 1 event versus 2, but he will almost certainly get 2 anyways. Yes he is a headcase, but his WS and longevity will help him, and to be honest he does still score pretty well when he messes up a fair number of his jumps, and I actually think that's okay because he is the strongest US man in the artistry department by quite a long way at this points, and it's probably his last season anyways.
    ....I really don't get you. First you're trying to harp on about Dornbush's "potential" and trying to claim he's "done fairly well"...

    But you're not prepared to give the same concessions to Ross, who has a great deal more potential than Dornbush (IMO), and actually had a very good season up until 4CCs. I can't possibly see how Miner's season could be just "okay" next to Dornbush's.

    Did Ross steal your teddy bear as a kid? Are you jealous of the hugs he got to dispense on Max at Nationals? Seriously, I'm trying to work out what the hell he's done to you!

  12. #42
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    What was so great about Ross at SLC or Skate Canada? That's all I'm saying. Ross had ONE really good competition this season, NHK, and that helped him get way inflated PCS at Nationals so he deserved 2nd. 4CCs and Worlds were not a fluke, he skated very similarly there to how he did at Skate Canada and Salt Lake City, and internationally his Nationals programs would have scored maybe mid 220s at best.

    Idk. Saying Farris getting 1 GP is fine in the situation that Miner would be getting 2 ahead of him I don't think is really a fair call. Farris medaled in every single competition he competed in this season, including three gold medals including gold at the Junior World Championships. So 5 medals and he deserves 1 event while Ross Miner with 2 medals (and no golds) deserves 2? Abbott and Dornbush also only got 2 medals this season too. I know juniors is different from seniors, but if Farris can win all these big events, come in 4th at senior Nationals, and win 2nd at the JGPF while doped up on Bendadryl while the winner was literally foot-perfect, idk that's pretty impressive.

    Particularly, idk, Jeremy, Ricky, Ross should all be ok with 1 GP each, the reason I'm being tough on Ross was that he was the one at Worlds with the chance to secure 2 spots fair and square and he failed to do that - had Jeremy or Ricky been sent and failed to place in the top 12 (which I highly doubt either would have done), then I'd be saying the same thing for them. Worlds is the competition where you essentially have your GP fate in the palm of your hand - place top 12 and you're set to go, don't place in the top 12 and maybe everything will work out but if it doesn't it's not really a travesty or that surprising.

  13. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by karne View Post
    Quite devastated for Artur Gachinski. His only hope for a GP at all this season is to be chosen to do CoR; and given the federation's attitude towards him I rather fear that he will be ditched even from that in favour of having, perhaps, a Kovtun-Menshov-Voronov field.
    He only has himself to blame, I think his Fed has not yet forgiven him
    I am almost certain he will get zero GP assignments,

  14. #44
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    Realistically, the US men had no chance for 3 spots. For Ross to secure three spots, he would have had to beat Max & Daisuke. Not happening. He could, if he had skated well, gotten 2 GP slots guaranteed for himself, though.

    I'm wondering which of the guys will be doing Senior B's this summer (and which ones). A good Senior B result often translates to a host pick (think Chock & Bates and CoC last year)

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    Quote Originally Posted by silverlake22 View Post
    Idk. Saying Farris getting 1 GP is fine in the situation that Miner would be getting 2 ahead of him I don't think is really a fair call. Farris medaled in every single competition he competed in this season, including three gold medals including gold at the Junior World Championships. So 5 medals and he deserves 1 event while Ross Miner with 2 medals (and no golds) deserves 2? Abbott and Dornbush also only got 2 medals this season too. I know juniors is different from seniors, but if Farris can win all these big events, come in 4th at senior Nationals, and win 2nd at the JGPF while doped up on Bendadryl while the winner was literally foot-perfect, idk that's pretty impressive..
    Farris won medals at JUNIOR international events. Miner has medaled at two SENIOR international events. Huge difference in the overall level of competition at these events. As fars as Farris' record in SENIOR events: US Nationals 21, 16, 4. (Miner's record at US National during that time 3,3,2)

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