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Thread: GP Speculation 2013-2014. The men

  1. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by silverlake22 View Post
    What was so great about Ross at SLC or Skate Canada? That's all I'm saying.
    What was so great about Dornbush at NHK or CoR? That's all I'm saying.

    Quote Originally Posted by silverlake22 View Post
    Particularly, idk, Jeremy, Ricky, Ross should all be ok with 1 GP each, the reason I'm being tough on Ross was that he was the one at Worlds with the chance to secure 2 spots fair and square and he failed to do that - had Jeremy or Ricky been sent and failed to place in the top 12 (which I highly doubt either would have done), then I'd be saying the same thing for them.
    No, you wouldn't be. Come on mate, man up and admit it.

    Quote Originally Posted by sky_fly20 View Post
    He only has himself to blame, I think his Fed has not yet forgiven him
    I am almost certain he will get zero GP assignments,
    His Fed has not yet forgiven him? And yet what of Kovtun? No doubt HE will get two and HE failed too. No, Artur was a convenient scapegoat for the RuFed, nothing more. He is a Mishin student, and he idolises Plushenko. They don't want him to be their top guy.

    Though I shan't be upset if the extra time off allows him to rebuild himself and he comes back and does well at Nationals and Euros.

    Quote Originally Posted by SkateFan66 View Post
    As fars as Farris' record in SENIOR events: US Nationals 21, 16, 4. (Miner's record at US National during that time 3,3,2)
    No-one with a heart includes 2011 for Josh.

    Besides, after watching the Kovtun debacle, I'd have thought a few more people would have been advocating a gentler, less pressuring transition into Seniors for the top Juniors. Kovtun is proof that it's not magic and doesn't happen overnight.

  2. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by karne View Post
    What was so great about Dornbush at NHK or CoR? That's all I'm saying.
    Nothing. However, Dornbush was not sent to Worlds where he had a clear path to earning 2 GP assignments and blew it. Nor did Abbott. Miner did.

    Quote Originally Posted by karne View Post
    No, you wouldn't be. Come on mate, man up and admit it.
    If Dornbush or Abbott came in 14th place at Worlds I'm pretty sure I would feel the same way. You can't beat meltdown Amodio and Peter Liebers skating like you have for most of the season (because yes, Miner's performances at Worlds were comparable to those at 4CC, SC, and SLC), then, well, maybe you aren't really a top tier skater afterall, or only are when you skate a blinder. Ross has the potential to do very well, but he's not there yet, clearly.



    Quote Originally Posted by karne View Post
    His Fed has not yet forgiven him? And yet what of Kovtun? No doubt HE will get two and HE failed too. No, Artur was a convenient scapegoat for the RuFed, nothing more. He is a Mishin student, and he idolises Plushenko. They don't want him to be their top guy.

    Though I shan't be upset if the extra time off allows him to rebuild himself and he comes back and does well at Nationals and Euros.
    Kovtun will likely only get 2 events if he gets COR as his second. The Fed probably recognizes they messed up with Gatchinski and doesn't want to do the same thing with Kovtun, so may as well give Kovtun the host spot, internationally he has done better this season than Gatchinski anyways. Given Gatchinski's competitive record and past accomplishments, I highly doubt the fed will continue to screw him over should he regain the form that won his a World Bronze and Euros Silver. Similarly, if Kovtun continues to disappoint, even with the backing of Tarasova, I think the Fed will catch on and stop giving him favors.



    Quote Originally Posted by karne View Post
    No-one with a heart includes 2011 for Josh.

    Besides, after watching the Kovtun debacle, I'd have thought a few more people would have been advocating a gentler, less pressuring transition into Seniors for the top Juniors. Kovtun is proof that it's not magic and doesn't happen overnight.
    This. Plus, I just like to throw Nationals almost completely out of consideration when looking at skater's results because the judging at Nationals is so damn warped. 2011 for Josh should be disregarded - he skated right after an allergic reaction and broke his freaking ankle in the middle of the FS. Plus he was like 15. 2012 he got hosed in PCS while others got propped up, and the result looked so stupid after he went on to win JW silver a month later. No 16th place Nationals finisher that actually deserves to be in 16th place finishes 2nd at JW with an ISU SB within 2 points of the #2 and #3 senior skaters in the Nation. Then Miner's PCS at Nats this year were a joke, had they been less inflated, Josh and Jeremy would have beaten him and he'd be much closer in scores to Dornbush, who received PCS about 10 points lower than Miner in the FS at Nats even though internationally, their PCS are very comparable. Nationals scoring is so messed up, and Farris is in a Gao or Zhang position regarding Nationals marking while Miner is in a Zawadzki position - in the end, the results don't mean much.

  3. #48
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    I don't want this to become a U.S. dominated discussion but a few responses and then I'm out:

    1.) RE Miner's PCS: People seem to forget that PCS is scored on a relative basis. When they gave Aaron 79 PCS, why would they put Ross in the same scoring standpoint when he has better skating skills, transitions, et al than Aaron? Jeremy also got 88 despite all his errors, so I think relative to his competitors Miner's PCS is not all that off -- lower than Jeremy, higher than Aaron. Josh has great skating skills, but he his IN/CH/PE leave a lot to be desired. Ross sold his program and the 3A error did not interrupt the flow of the program. Dornbush made a WHOLE slew of errors that were quite disruptive to the program, so that's why he got the PCS scores he got. Ross has always been a skater's skater -- he is recognized by commentators for smooth edging and good blade work. Ross still has a lot of work in the choreography department, but I easily argue that his choreo was a lot better than Farris. I admire that Farris wants to do his own choreography, but he's not Jeremy Abbott -- he needs to go to someone who will help him shine more.

    2.) Richard got 2 GP events this season despite a SB score last season out of the top 24 and he blew his chance to be in the Top 24 by performing poorly in 4CC, which he didn't deserve to go in the first place. So Ross is hardly the first (or last) skater to blow and opportunity.

    3.) Amodio beat Ross because he got crazy PCS by skating in the later group. Amodio made a whole lot more mistakes than Ross did at Worlds -- he freakin missed a whole element in the SP, but he got boosted by PCS while Ross got dumped in PCS for his errors. So not comparable at all. Ross will need to start at square one as far as getting reputation PCS, but come on not even a fair comparison. And in the FS, Ross did fine, but the quad error cost him -- I noted that if he just did triples, he probably would have been clean and finished past a few guys. But for Ross, it seems working out the jump in competition until it sticks seems to be the method of choice.

    4.) Why don't we wait until Josh actually competes in an international senior event before we start assessing how he is relative to the other guys? Josh practically no competition in juniors this season. He only competitors this season was Han, Kovtun and Brown. And because the way JGP is laid out he had no competition in the actual JGP events just in the JGP final. Gracie Gold also did quite well in juniors last season and we saw what happened once she hit the big stage -- she struggled for quite a while and had to learn to compete. How you do as a junior is no guarantee of how you do in seniors. That said, I think Josh will do quite fine, and Jason as well, but Ross still has potential and room to grow as well.

  4. #49
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    All fair points, a few things I will say though:

    1.) It's fair for Miner's PCS to be above Max and below Jeremy, but they were closer to Jeremy than they should have been at Nationals. Jeremy is in a class by himself when it comes to artistry and then rest of the contenders in the US are all similar to each other and significantly below. So, given that Rippon, Dornbush, Farris, and Aaron were all in the 76-79 range for PCS, it would be acceptable for Ross to be in the 80ish range, but not 84 when Jeremy is getting only an 88. To compare that to internationally, Jeremy got about a 6 point PCS jump from internationally, while Ross got an 10-14 PCS point jump. Granted, Jeremy was far from his best, but what is more the issue here is the results of Nationals provided the sense that Ross had a cushion for errors and would likely do pretty well at Worlds even with mistakes, which was the wrong impression because internationally he doesn't have that PCS cushion, none of the guys except Abbott do.

    And I agree Farris needs a real choreography and that his programs this season were a bit bland and boring. He has the potential to be artistic, but needs someone to pull it out of him. I was talking about his performance on a technical level, because at least from my point of view, he has very nice jumps and pretty much textbook technique on all of them, while Ross has swingy technique on the axel and salchow and seems to muscle through most of his toe jumps.

    2.) I didn't think Dornbush deserved to get 2 GPs this season and thought it was a bit silly after the bad season he had last year. And Dornbush is one of my favorite skaters. He blew a lot of competitions last season and there is no denying that. However, he got 2 GPs anyways and did a lot better this season so it all worked out. My issue with Ross is not - if he gets 2 GPs, I'm going to be pissed, but rather, if he only gets 1 and the wealth is spread out a bit more, I think it's understandable given the season he has had.

    3.) Amodio is a former European Champion, GP Finalist, was 5th at Worlds last year, and won silver in an incredibly deep field at Euros this season. He has earned a reputation internationally and that is what saved his PCS. Ross has done well for himself but he hasn't broken through with the same kind of results as Amodio yet internationally, so it's understandable that his PCS would be lower. Amodio is also a stronger skater than Ross from a PCS standpoint in my opinion anyways, even if his programs are crap, I think his strength as a skater and beautiful technique helped accomplish as much as he has. When and if Ross can match Amodio's competitive resume, I'm sure he'll be treated similarly at international events should he slip up.

    4.) It is true Josh didn't have much competition internationally this season, I won't deny that, but if you pay attention more to what was put on the ice, I think you get what I'm trying to say. In the 5 major competitions Josh competed in this season, he skated a clean SP in 4 of them, and his SP at the JGPF was nearly clean with just a step out on the 3a. Further, he skated very strong free programs at 3 of his 5 major competitions, scoring over 75 in TES at Lake Placid, Nationals and Junior Worlds, and his FS in Slovenia was pretty good too but did not score so highly due to tripling out on the quad toe and thus not being able to do a 3a-3t, the only shaky FS he had this season was at the JGPF, where he had an allergic reaction before the competition and skated doped up on Benadryl. So, that's a pretty good record IMO.

    For someone considered the steady eddie of the men's event, Ross was more volatile in his skating this season. In his 6 competitions, he didn't have a single clean SP, though he came close at Nationals when he hit all his jumps but got dinged for URing his 4sal. In the FS, the results were mixed, at NHK he was foot-perfect, at Nationals he made just one (albeit a very costly one) major error, and then at the other events he made 2 or more significant errors. Even with the extra element in the senior programs, he only earned 75+ TES for two of his FS programs this season.

    In the ice network article, it mentions that Ross just started doing the quad this season, and so the inconsistent results are to be a bit expected - I totally agree with this. However, it does put him on a steeper incline in terms of what he needs to achieve to make it to the top tier just because his age puts him a little behind the curve - he is in no way old for a skater, but he did learn the 3a and 4s rather late in his career. Farris has not had great success with his 4t in competition yet either, but he just turned 18, and he has been training the 4t since he was 15, that was part of what caused the unmitigated disaster chain of events at the 2011 Nationals. Further, part of the reason I think Josh was able to keep (and actually improve) the consistency on his 3a this season despite the struggles with the quad was because he's had that jump in his arsenal longer than Ross as well, even though he is 4 years younger. He started going for the 3a in both his SP and FS at the age of 14, which yes is young, but just represents the achievement path he is on, a considerably younger one than Miner. Of course, this does not mean he won't struggle later in his career, and even though technically he learned everything on a young age, the emotional part has been harder for him, admittedly, and could come into play once he hits the senior ranks. But as far as this season is concerned, if any of the US men were "steady eddies" - it was Max and Josh.

  5. #50
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    Because HOST PICK is the first step in the process, it IS possible for 1-3 or 4-6 seeds to face each other.
    Last season, Japan picked Takahashi and Hanyu, the #2 and #3 seeds, for NHK.
    And it looks like JSF could do a Hanyu/Takahashi NHK again,
    I hope not, PLEEEASE. Hanyu and Takahashi had comps going head to head 5 times, FIVE TIMES! this season: at NHK, GPF, Nats, 4CC and Worlds. And look at how poorly (almost miserably) they skated in London; either had injuries, physically fatigued or mentally burnt-out at the end of the season... Especially Hanyu, who sited numerous times that he wants OGM not only in Pyeongchang but also in Sochi. This season was very important for him because of its nature as 'pre-Olympic season', so that naturally winning the championship would mean a sort of a 'stamp' among int'l judges as one of serious OGM contenders and surely would give him a huge confidence booster, right? Hanyu started this season SO WELL by hitting the new world's SP scores at SA and NHK, but losing its steam as the season progressed, only to end up losing one precious opportunity to win the World title, which everyone believed with no doubt he was very capable of doing so earlier this season, and which he desparately needed to do so if he wants to win OGM in Sochi.

    Aside from who the favorite skater(s) is/are or whom to root for the most, skating fans in Japan in general (except some ubers, of course) have been really looking forward to seeing another world champ in Mens field and believing it would be either Yuzuru, Daisuke or Takahiko.
    Takahiko surprised everyone with his new SP to Exodus at FOI in summer, and combined with another superb LP to Rondo Capriccioso which hilights his strengths only, Taka looked so promising earlier in the season. Dai at JO appeared just great physically with his quad back and fully-preapred mentally for the new season. Yuzu, who improved so much during summer at Orser camp, showed up having everything; with his solid quad toe +quad Salchow AND with two decent programs choreo'd by Canadian genius (Buttle+Wilson), to be the rightful champion and was clearly #1 prospect to beat Chan this season to everyone's eye...Taka failed to make the team for the Worlds. Dai looked unfocused and almost defeated already even before actual competitions got started; as if he rather fought hard against the media/his fed, not his competitors... Yuzu, the youngest and most promising whom all skating fans here had been talking about for so long, since he was bearly 10 y.o., ended up losing to Reynolds at 4CC on home ice. Then he showed up pale again, thinner than ever and injured in London.

    It seemed our J-boys started the first half of the season just fabulously. The results were just amaging, the best in Japanese Mens history; 4 GP wins out of six, 10 medals out of 18, and going 1-2 at GPF. Then Taka injured his foot due to heavy training; in order to make the team for the worlds. Nobu who had to miss the latter half of last season, bombed there due to huge pressure; again in order to make the team. Tatsuki won his very first GP medal at SA, then beat Dai and got the first GP win at CoC. But peaked too early. As a result, only one medal (silver at 4CC) at two championships. Mura is probably the only one who literally survived it. He made his name in front of int'l judges+int'l fans and had the most succseeful season in his whole career. Good for him, indeed. idk what else to say or who to blame now. I feel sorry for them.

    Mens field is soooo deep in Japan, and my fear is it may affect our boys in a negative way again next season. I just hope JSF will handle everything in a much smarter way in the Olympic season. More importantly, I hope our boys get fully healthy physically and mentally before the new season starts.

    ANd a little off topic but to JSF's explanation re Hanyu's not competing at WTT. Could have simply announced that he would not compete at WTT due to his injuries. Show some of your love to other skaters as well, PLEEEASE. Not only Hanyu, any three of our top boys, if they make the Olympic team and have two clean skates there, can be medal contenders.
    Also, I, as a devoted Takahahi fan, would appreciate JSF to simply assign Hanyu as national champ, to NHK, and leave Takahashi elsewhere. At this point, JSF should know by now they don't need any further 'New rising star vs Old champ 12845th battle so don't miss the chance to witness it!' type of PR to media and TV viewers...As for $$$, Yuzu+Mao can sell out all tickets and bring lots of sponsors. You can surely expect full house and screaming audience...

  6. #51
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    I'm not sold on Hanyu yet. He seems to lack stamina and gets injured a lot. He looks frail at times.

  7. #52
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    After the exhausting season that Dai has had I think it would be a good idea for him
    to skip the GP series (let the young bucks fight it out) and focus on conserving his
    energy so that he will be at his best and peak at JN and Sochi.

  8. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by demarinis5 View Post
    After the exhausting season that Dai has had I think it would be a good idea for him
    to skip the GP series (let the young bucks fight it out) and focus on conserving his
    energy so that he will be at his best and peak at JN and Sochi.
    Bad idea. Daisuke needs to get his name and programs out there in the mix, and practice actually landing his quads in competition.

    He'll probably skip 4CC next season like he did in 2010 so he'll have more of a break after Nationals than this season.

  9. #54
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    We have to agree to disagree. Dai does not need to get his name out there he has been competing for 11 years. I am not worried about his programs Dai can
    make hamburger look like steak. He needs to practice landing the quad period and he can do that without doing the GP series. The route he took this season
    has not worked. His 27 year old his body cannot take the pounding anymore. Skaters have skipped the GP series in the past for
    various reasons other than injury and have had success.

  10. #55
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jammers View Post
    I'm not sold on Hanyu yet. He seems to lack stamina and gets injured a lot. He looks frail at times.
    The stamina has always been an issue, he is asthmatic after all, but he is improving. And he's always been very, very thin, I think that is just his body type, sort of like Kevin Reynolds though Reynolds is taller. More strength training would help Hanyu, but he might be doing a lot of that already and his build is just not conducive to gaining weight/muscle mass. He is young too, only just 18, so he still might be adjusting to physical growth changes. Orser is a good coach for him, but you do wonder if training at altitude could help. I know Josh Farris has asthma as well, and he's also pretty skinny, but stamina has never seemed to be a big issue for him and at this point could actually be considered one of his strengths, and you wonder if training at altitude helps with that, I imagine it would make a big difference. If you can do double or triple run-thrus of a FS in the mountains, then it's gonna be easier, physically, doing a single FS at a competition anywhere else, even when you add in the adrenaline and nervous energy expenditure in, one would think.

  11. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by silverlake22 View Post
    The stamina has always been an issue, he is asthmatic after all, but he is improving. And he's always been very, very thin, I think that is just his body type, sort of like Kevin Reynolds though Reynolds is taller. More strength training would help Hanyu, but he might be doing a lot of that already and his build is just not conducive to gaining weight/muscle mass. He is young too, only just 18, so he still might be adjusting to physical growth changes. Orser is a good coach for him, but you do wonder if training at altitude could help. I know Josh Farris has asthma as well, and he's also pretty skinny, but stamina has never seemed to be a big issue for him and at this point could actually be considered one of his strengths, and you wonder if training at altitude helps with that, I imagine it would make a big difference. If you can do double or triple run-thrus of a FS in the mountains, then it's gonna be easier, physically, doing a single FS at a competition anywhere else, even when you add in the adrenaline and nervous energy expenditure in, one would think.
    Farris might have more trouble with his asthma if he were skating to programs as physically demanding as Hanyu's programs, and if he skated at the speed Hanyu skates.

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    Farris has always trained in Colorado Springs, so he is accustomed to skating at altitude.

    Hanyu has asthma problems even at sea level. He isn't able to complete all the elements of his demanding Free programs, and his speed noticeably deteriorates towards the end of his FS. If he began to train at altitude, I'm not sure what would happen.

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    Quote Originally Posted by evangeline View Post
    Farris might have more trouble with his asthma if he were skating to programs as physically demanding as Hanyu's programs, and if he skated at the speed Hanyu skates.
    Maybe. But as a counter argument, remember Nan Song at 4CCs last year? He needed oxygen after his FS...it was scary to watch, I would assume he has asthma too, and he skates REALLY slow (slower than Farris, or it would at least appear that way - commentators comment on Song's lack of speed quite a bit actually). In some ways, you would think skating faster might save you more energy because you don't need to exert yourself as much into the jumps. Like Song and Farris jump very high, but without a lot of speed going into the jumps, so idk, it might be more exhausting that way. Not sure. Hanyu sure does have complex programs though, like the transitions and footwork...I get tired just watching it

    You wonder if spending some time at an altitude like Lake Arrowhead or CO Springs, either during the summer or before competitions, could help Hanyu better deal with his asthma.

  14. #59
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    Here's an UPDATED list of GP 'guarantees' for the men, which includes Worlds 2013 results and the results of the final International B events. The World Rankings list has been purged to remove 2010-2011 points and reduce 2011-2012 points to 70% of their value.

    Top 12 at Worlds 2013, guaranteed two spots each (top 6 are seeded):
    Patrick CHAN
    Denis TEN
    Javier FERNANDEZ
    Yuzuru HANYU
    Kevin REYNOLDS
    Daisuke TAKAHASHI
    Max AARON
    Takahito MURA
    Brian JOUBERT
    Michal BREZINA
    Peter LIEBERS
    Florent AMODIO

    Skaters who are top 24 on Worlds Ranking and/or Seasons Best list are guaranteed at least one event. The lists below do not include skaters who finished top 12 at Worlds.

    Top 24 on World Ranking AND Seasons Best:
    Takahiko KOZUKA
    Nobunari ODA
    Tatsuki MACHIDA
    Ross MINER
    Han YAN
    Richard DORNBUSH
    Nan SONG
    Joshua FARRIS
    Jeremy ABBOTT
    Maxim KOVTUN
    Jason BROWN
    Konstantin MENSHOV

    Top 24 on World Ranking Only:
    Adam RIPPON - bumped Tomas VERNER out of the top 24



    Top 24 on Seasons Best only:
    Nathan Chen (JGP)

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    Quote Originally Posted by chuckm View Post
    Here's an UPDATED list of GP 'guarantees' for the men, which includes Worlds 2013 results and the results of the final International B events. The World Rankings list has been purged to remove 2010-2011 points and reduce 2011-2012 points to 70% of their value.
    ...
    Top 24 on World Ranking Only:
    Adam RIPPON - bumped Tomas VERNER out of the top 24Q
    Adam Rippon bumped Nan SONG to #25 in my calculations of the "purged" World Standings rankings - I have Rippon at #21 now. I also have Alexander MAJOROV SWE #19 and Chafik BESSEGHIER FRA #24. Nan SONG is currently #18 on the ISU SB list, so should be guaranteed at least 1 GP invite.

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