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Thread: Japan's Junior Worlds

  1. #1
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    Japan's Junior Worlds

    Been otherwise occupied and not paying attention to skating recently, but checking in I was surprised at Japans poor showing at Junior Worlds. No medals at all...highest placement is 7th...hmmmm. Looking at JW it would seem like US and Russia are the future power houses, followed by China and Canada and Japan trailing.

    Any thoughts?

    Are Japans youngsters already in Senior's? Is it just a blip? What happens to ISU funding if Japanese fans leave the way American fans have done?

    eta: Canada

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    Well, to be fair, Miyahara started getting really nailed for UR jumps and Radionova/Lipnitskaia were practically guaranteed 1-2. And Cesario and Daleman did quite well, and have better artistry to boot. So 7th, while disappointing, is not entirely unexpected.

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    Wicked Yankee Girl dorispulaski's Avatar
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    Cesario, really, is a senior, 19 years old.
    So that should be 6th. Miyahara skated beautifully, but really got dinged for UR because her jumps are kind of small, alittle more height on them and she should be able to get credit for them; there's got to be a way to help her address this-a coach that specializes in jumps and improved the power of her skating could help.

    BTW, one of the tech panel was from Japan, one from the US, one from Germany. Yet both Cesario & Miyahara really were severely penalized for underrotation.
    Last edited by dorispulaski; 03-09-2013 at 07:06 PM.

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    Hino had a bad competition, he is capable of much better and probably could have placed 3rd or 4th had he skated his best. Uno is very good and had the 3rd highest PCS in the FS even, he just doesn't have the jumps yet, which isn't surprising considering he's only 143 cm and probably weighs 40 kg at most. When he grows, I think he can get the bigger jumps and do well, he only just turned 15.

    As for the ladies, Miyahara is good but those jumps need serious work. No only are they low and usually cheated in terms of rotation, but the technique is also weird, she bends the knee so much on the landing, it is a bit odd technique. Some more speed would also help I think. There is still time because like Uno she's very small and very young still, but I do think the placement is fair because the standard of the jumps is really just not good. People complained about the Russian girls' jumps but they were much stronger than Satoko's truthfully. Hongo on the other hand has nice jumps but presentation is lacking and her posture is so distracting. The girl needs some ballet classes and more confidence and then maybe she can be a factor in a few years.

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    One country can't forever dominate the sport; not even Russia both in pairs and ice dance which seemed be just dominatant over decades, nor fifteen/sixteen American girls in ladies as we have seen so far.
    Let's wait and see how our young and promising skaters are to be matured in the years to come, which is another side of joy (a TRUE joy to me at least) to enjoy this sport.

    For your reference, Rika Hongo and Shoma Uno actually had very good performances at this year's Junior World, in spite of placinf lower. They can aim for the podium next season I believe.

    ETA: I have been busy following World Baseball Classic this week. But the thought of London Worlds actually starts soon just kills me...

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    Japan might or might not be as dominant in the future, but their situation isn't alarming by any means. Two of the men qualified to the JGPF, and Miyahara and Hongo both have some good qualities that they can build on as they work on their respective issues. Junior competitors are still developing, so we don't know what each skater is ultimately capable of yet. Also, skaters move in and out of the junior ranks fairly quickly, so the competitors in a single year can't tell the whole story.

    Quote Originally Posted by ivy View Post
    Are Japans youngsters already in Senior's? Is it just a blip?
    Yuzuru is the same age as Josh and Jason; Kanako is also still just 18. Both are already established senior skaters.

    Quote Originally Posted by ivy View Post
    What happens to ISU funding if Japanese fans leave the way American fans have done?
    This is an interesting question, although I personally don't foresee it happening on a large scale anytime soon. Japanese skating fans obviously love their Mao Asada and Daisuke Takahashi (and I wouldn't be surprised if FS popularity there diminishes somewhat if Mao retires after Sochi), but I get the impression that many are fans of the actual sport rather than just the Japanese skaters. This is in comparison to, say, South Korea, where interest is almost entirely founded on Yuna Kim.

    However, if skating in Japan ever does revert to a niche sport and no other country takes its role in funding FS, then I suppose the ISU would have to scale back and a changing of the guard may occur at the top. The money currently coming in from Japan is saving the ISU from having to face its issues; but it's ultimately unsustainable.

  7. #7
    Like subtlety in ice dancing Serious Business's Avatar
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    I don't think junior worlds is that good at predicting future success for a skater or a nation, I really wouldn't worry about it or read too much into it. If you look at the medalists for the last 6 years, about maybe one or two skaters/teams from each discipline are actually relevant in seniors now. The rest of them just fizzle out.

    Medalists in junior men from the last 6 years:

    The only medalist from the last 6 years to make any difference in seniors is Yuzuru Hanyu, who won junior gold in 2010. All the other medalists from 2008 to 2011 are burnouts now. Remember Adam Rippon? Artur Gachinski? Michal Brezina? And those are the ones who actually seemed like they had a shot in seniors. The rest of them aren't even worth mentioning.

    Medalists in junior women from the last 6 years:

    Only Alena Leonova went on to win a major medal, and it is a highly suspect one in her home country. She's not expected to contend now. Some other ones may actually have potential to contend at this Worlds, but I ain't counting their successes until they hatch. Then there are ones that just outright flamed out like Rachael Flatt, Caroline Zhang, Mirai Nagasu (i.e. the entire podium in 2008, what a cursed place to be). Zawadski and Tuktamysheva seem to be headed down that road as well. Polina Agafonova is not even a has been, she just never was.

    Medalists in junior pairs from the last 6 years:

    Only Takahashi/Tran went on to win a world medal, and they've broken up. So yes, this is pretty much a complete pile of fail.

    Medalists in junior dance from the last 6 years:

    The Shibs had that surprise bronze when everybody else splatted, and their career has gone down harder and faster than Lindsay Lohan's. Not a single one of them are expected to contend for a medal at this Worlds, except maybe Ilinykh/Katsalapov with an outside shot at bronze.

    So yeah, I really, really wouldn't worry about the results from one junior worlds. Junior worlds is often the apex in the careers of skaters who medal in it, then it's all downhill!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Serious Business View Post
    I don't think junior worlds is that good at predicting future success for a skater or a nation, I really wouldn't worry about it or read too much into it. If you look at the medalists for the last 6 years, about maybe one or two skaters/teams from each discipline are actually relevant in seniors now. The rest of them just fizzle out.

    Medalists in junior men from the last 6 years:

    The only medalist from the last 6 years to make any difference in seniors is Yuzuru Hanyu, who won junior gold in 2010. All the other medalists from 2008 to 2011 are burnouts now. Remember Adam Rippon? Artur Gachinski? Michal Brezina? And those are the ones who actually seemed like they had a shot in seniors. The rest of them aren't even worth mentioning.

    Medalists in junior women from the last 6 years:

    Only Alena Leonova went on to win a major medal, and it is a highly suspect one in her home country. She's not expected to contend now. Some other ones may actually have potential to contend at this Worlds, but I ain't counting their successes until they hatch. Then there are ones that just outright flamed out like Rachael Flatt, Caroline Zhang, Mirai Nagasu (i.e. the entire podium in 2008, what a cursed place to be). Zawadski and Tuktamysheva seem to be headed down that road as well. Polina Agafonova is not even a has been, she just never was.

    Medalists in junior pairs from the last 6 years:

    Only Takahashi/Tran went on to win a world medal, and they've broken up. So yes, this is pretty much a complete pile of fail.

    Medalists in junior dance from the last 6 years:

    The Shibs had that surprise bronze when everybody else splatted, and their career has gone down harder and faster than Lindsay Lohan's. Not a single one of them are expected to contend for a medal at this Worlds, except maybe Ilinykh/Katsalapov with an outside shot at bronze.

    So yeah, I really, really wouldn't worry about the results from one junior worlds. Junior worlds is often the apex in the careers of skaters who medal in it, then it's all downhill!
    How do you figure Tuktamysheva is going to flame out? She just finished 3rd at Europeans and made the GP final in her first two years on the circuit and she seems to have gone through puberty with all her jumps. That's more then Flatt, Nagasu. Zhang or Zawadski have ever done in their careers.

  9. #9
    the Golden Era sky_fly20's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Serious Business View Post
    Medalists in junior men from the last 6 years:

    The only medalist from the last 6 years to make any difference in seniors is Yuzuru Hanyu, who won junior gold in 2010. All the other medalists from 2008 to 2011 are burnouts now. Remember Adam Rippon? Artur Gachinski? Michal Brezina? And those are the ones who actually seemed like they had a shot in seniors. The rest of them aren't even worth mentioning.

    Medalists in junior women from the last 6 years:

    Only Alena Leonova went on to win a major medal, and it is a highly suspect one in her home country. She's not expected to contend now. Some other ones may actually have potential to contend at this Worlds, but I ain't counting their successes until they hatch. Then there are ones that just outright flamed out like Rachael Flatt, Caroline Zhang, Mirai Nagasu (i.e. the entire podium in 2008, what a cursed place to be). Zawadski and Tuktamysheva seem to be headed down that road as well. Polina Agafonova is not even a has been, she just never was.
    maybe you're confusing Tuktamysheva with Sotnikova ?
    Wagner also has been successful

    B/L were silver medalists at junior worlds from last quad

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    Quote Originally Posted by Serious Business View Post
    Remember Adam Rippon? Artur Gachinski? Michal Brezina? And those are the ones who actually seemed like they had a shot in seniors. The rest of them aren't even worth mentioning.
    Rippon and Brezina are probably fair calls, but you can't call Gachinski a burnout yet. He's NINETEEN. His jump technique is very solid. He hasn't set the world on fire at Seniors yet, but he's done more than both Rippon and Brezina ever have!

    If he's still skating like this in say, four years, fine, by all means have a go. But he's nineteen. He's only a year older than our current JWC. He's a World bronze medallist and a Euros silver medallist, and a twice-Russian National silver medallist. And he's got Alexei Mishin in his corner. He's not done yet.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Serious Business View Post
    I don't think junior worlds is that good at predicting future success for a skater or a nation, I really wouldn't worry about it or read too much into it. If you look at the medalists for the last 6 years, about maybe one or two skaters/teams from each discipline are actually relevant in seniors now. The rest of them just fizzle out.

    Medalists in junior men from the last 6 years:

    The only medalist from the last 6 years to make any difference in seniors is Yuzuru Hanyu, who won junior gold in 2010. All the other medalists from 2008 to 2011 are burnouts now. Remember Adam Rippon? Artur Gachinski? Michal Brezina? And those are the ones who actually seemed like they had a shot in seniors. The rest of them aren't even worth mentioning.

    Medalists in junior women from the last 6 years:

    Only Alena Leonova went on to win a major medal, and it is a highly suspect one in her home country. She's not expected to contend now. Some other ones may actually have potential to contend at this Worlds, but I ain't counting their successes until they hatch. Then there are ones that just outright flamed out like Rachael Flatt, Caroline Zhang, Mirai Nagasu (i.e. the entire podium in 2008, what a cursed place to be). Zawadski and Tuktamysheva seem to be headed down that road as well. Polina Agafonova is not even a has been, she just never was.

    Medalists in junior pairs from the last 6 years:

    Only Takahashi/Tran went on to win a world medal, and they've broken up. So yes, this is pretty much a complete pile of fail.

    Medalists in junior dance from the last 6 years:

    The Shibs had that surprise bronze when everybody else splatted, and their career has gone down harder and faster than Lindsay Lohan's. Not a single one of them are expected to contend for a medal at this Worlds, except maybe Ilinykh/Katsalapov with an outside shot at bronze.

    So yeah, I really, really wouldn't worry about the results from one junior worlds. Junior worlds is often the apex in the careers of skaters who medal in it, then it's all downhill!
    Ok, let's clarify some issues:
    Michal Brezina just got bronze at Europeans.
    Tuktamysheva also got bronze at Europeans this year (on her first ever appearance at Europeans).
    Alena Leonova has had a very bad season this year, but claiming that she managed win a major medal - a highly suspect one in her home country is ridiculous. Leonova is a Russian skater, just in case you don't know it. In Moscow in 2011 she placed 4th. But she did managed to win a medal in Nice, where she finished 2nd. By the way, Nice is in France. So no, she did not win a medal in her home country, she won it in France, and it couldn't have been such an accident if a year before she was just 2 places lower.

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by Serious Business View Post
    Junior worlds is often the apex in the careers of skaters who medal in it, then it's all downhill!
    Please tell that to Alexei Yagudin, or Evgeni Plushenko. I'm sure they will be quite interested to know that their Junior Worlds titles were the "apex of their careers".

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    Yes I can see that one year isn't super informative and that most JW medalist don't go on to become SW medalists. OTOH most of the todays top singles competitors do have JW medals. Kim, Asada, Kostner, Wagner, Tukt, Sotnikova, Takahashi, Chan, Hanyu, are former JW medalist. Fernandez and Suzuki are the two that come to mind that aren't. Osmund and Aaron also - though they have yet to really make thier mark. So for the best of the best, they tend to always be near the top?

    And it's the third year in a row that Japan has no medal in Ladies, second year in a row for Men.

    I hope no one takes this as anti Japan - that is the farthest thing from my intent. It's just interesting to see the country that is dominate in senior singles today with not a lot of success at JWs. Makes me wonder about the future.

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    ^ JSF is stupid, and Hashimoto rules. For almost a decade, especially in its second half, they have been having an international success thanks to two mega stars- Dai&Mao or Mao&Dai, the order doesn't matter. No one is the same level ticket sellers and cash cows as those two and no one will be in the nearest future. People can write whatever they wish on boards. We all will see what will be in J-arenas when those two retires after Sochi. Not so much time left to wait afterall.

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    Quote Originally Posted by let`s talk View Post
    ^ JSF is stupid, and Hashimoto rules. For almost a decade, especially in its second half, they have been having an international success thanks to two mega stars- Dai&Mao or Mao&Dai, the order doesn't matter. No one is the same level ticket sellers and cash cows as those two and no one will be in the nearest future. People can write whatever they wish on boards. We all will see what will be in J-arenas when those two retires after Sochi. Not so much time left to wait afterall.
    And Yuzuru? Isn't he too popular? Or he is more popular abroad than in Japan? But he is probably going to win many competitions, perhaps in the biggest ones ..

    Mishin said in an interview, that China will be the next great power in FS. If I right remember ..maybe he said in male FS.

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