In terms of ladies since 2004 only Arakawa didn't have a Junior World medal. The question becomes can this skater compete with the best now?
I fail to see how Tukt and Sotnikova are burn outs, they are first year seniors and they already have European medals...The older skaters ahead of them are getting older, and I think the Russians are very well placed just by the sheer number they have.
Some of these skaters I think you are writing off quickly for example I/K I think are well placed beyond Sochi. In terms of pairs well Junior success isn't much indicative of anything given well how young the skaters are and the likelhood of split ups. B/L seem to be doing well though...And I think it can be indicative of the talent of particular pairs. For example both Aliona Savachenko and Maxim Trankov are Junior World Champs, although with different partners.
In terms of Japan, I think they are well placed with the men, a lot of their male seniors are young...Hanyu is extremely young.
I do think there should be concern about ladies. I'm not sure Murakami is ever going to be a big champion, and she's the only young skater of note. I'm not sure how long Asada and Suzuki have. The lack of young females should concern them.
someone before mentioned already of Marin Honda, indeed she is a big talent
still so young but very nice jumps she seems to have a brighter future than Satoko