Japan's Junior Worlds

[AlexRus]

Medalists in junior women from the last 6 years:

Only Alena Leonova went on to win a major medal

Sotnikova (two Jr Worlds medals) and Tuktamysheva (one Jr Worlds medal) - they have also medals of JGP Events and Final. Now, at their first Senior season, they earned two Euro medals, first Euro medals for Russia after 2006. They are no doubt in Elite of female skating.

[bekalc]

I don't think junior worlds is that good at predicting future success for a skater or a nation, I really wouldn't worry about it or read too much into it. If you look at the medalists for the last 6 years, about maybe one or two skaters/teams from each discipline are actually relevant in seniors now. The rest of them just fizzle out.

Medalists in junior men from the last 6 years:

The only medalist from the last 6 years to make any difference in seniors is Yuzuru Hanyu, who won junior gold in 2010. All the other medalists from 2008 to 2011 are burnouts now. Remember Adam Rippon? Artur Gachinski? Michal Brezina? And those are the ones who actually seemed like they had a shot in seniors. The rest of them aren't even worth mentioning.

Medalists in junior women from the last 6 years:

Only Alena Leonova went on to win a major medal, and it is a highly suspect one in her home country. She's not expected to contend now. Some other ones may actually have potential to contend at this Worlds, but I ain't counting their successes until they hatch. Then there are ones that just outright flamed out like Rachael Flatt, Caroline Zhang, Mirai Nagasu (i.e. the entire podium in 2008, what a cursed place to be). Zawadski and Tuktamysheva seem to be headed down that road as well. Polina Agafonova is not even a has been, she just never was.

Medalists in junior pairs from the last 6 years:

Only Takahashi/Tran went on to win a world medal, and they've broken up. So yes, this is pretty much a complete pile of fail.

Medalists in junior dance from the last 6 years:

The Shibs had that surprise bronze when everybody else splatted, and their career has gone down harder and faster than Lindsay Lohan's. Not a single one of them are expected to contend for a medal at this Worlds, except maybe Ilinykh/Katsalapov with an outside shot at bronze.

So yeah, I really, really wouldn't worry about the results from one junior worlds. Junior worlds is often the apex in the careers of skaters who medal in it, then it's all downhill!

Winning the Junior World title just means you were the best junior that year, its not necessarily indicating you are competitive with the big guns. However most of the Senior stars today DID have success in the junior circuit. Daisuke, Hanyu were Junior World Champs. Chan has a Junior World silver medal. (Fernandez is an exception here. Florent bombed Junior World but does have a Junior Grand Prix Final title.)

In terms of ladies since 2004 only Arakawa didn't have a Junior World medal. The question becomes can this skater compete with the best now?

I fail to see how Tukt and Sotnikova are burn outs, they are first year seniors and they already have European medals...The older skaters ahead of them are getting older, and I think the Russians are very well placed just by the sheer number they have.

Some of these skaters I think you are writing off quickly for example I/K I think are well placed beyond Sochi. In terms of pairs well Junior success isn't much indicative of anything given well how young the skaters are and the likelhood of split ups. B/L seem to be doing well though...And I think it can be indicative of the talent of particular pairs. For example both Aliona Savachenko and Maxim Trankov are Junior World Champs, although with different partners.

In terms of Japan, I think they are well placed with the men, a lot of their male seniors are young...Hanyu is extremely young.

I do think there should be concern about ladies. I'm not sure Murakami is ever going to be a big champion, and she's the only young skater of note. I'm not sure how long Asada and Suzuki have. The lack of young females should concern them.

[ks777]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PzVnW9PXPB8 very promising skater from japan. 11yrs old Marin Honda.

[sky_fly20]

someone before mentioned already of Marin Honda, indeed she is a big talent
still so young but very nice jumps she seems to have a brighter future than Satoko