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Thread: Number of Spots for 2014 Olympics/Worlds

  1. #1
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    Number of Spots for 2014 Olympics/Worlds

    In less than a week, we'll know which countries have qualified multiple spots for next year's Olympics. I'm probably more excited about that than seeing who wins what medals.

    Some are fairly obvious (Russia 3 each for ladies, dance and pairs; Japan 3 each for men and ladies; USA 3 for dance; Canada 3 for dance). Some are more up-in-the-air.

    Out of the following, who do you think the most/least likely to qualify 3 spots for their country? (Rank them if you like.)

    Chan and Reynolds
    Amodio and Joubert
    Fernandez
    Kim
    Kostner and Marchei
    Wagner and Gold
    Duhamel/Radford and Moore-Towers/Moscovitch
    Pang/Tong and 2nd-highest ranked Chinese pair

    Out of the following, who do you think the most/least likely to qualify 2 spots for their country?

    Kaetlyn Osmond
    Nan Song
    Maxim Kovtun

    If there's any I missed, please add them in.

  2. #2
    Outdated Old Dinosaur
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    I think you're perhaps jumping the gun on a few of your "obvious" three spot choices.

    I'm not at all convinced that the Russian ladies will secure three spots.

    Time will tell.

    ETA: An outside chance for US men to gain three spots. Not probable, but possible. The quad has made the men's event much more unpredictable.

  3. #3
    Custom Title Butterscotch17's Avatar
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    I think the most likely to secure three spots, other than your pretty obvious ones, are Chan & Reynolds and Wagner & Gold. Yuna Kim, too, but does South Korea even have two more top skaters to fill the spots?

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    Quote Originally Posted by TontoK View Post
    I'm not at all convinced that the Russian ladies will secure three spots.
    I don't think it's a sure thing either. Aside from whoever wins and gets 3 spots for their country and Japan, I do think the Russians are the next most likely to get 3 spots. I think Italy is the next most likely because Marchei is capable of placing in the top 10. If Ashley can pull off a clean SP with a 3/3 I think the US will get three spots because she is a relatively solid LP skater.

    I think Kaetlyn can get two; with the championships being in Canada there will be some degree of home field scoring.

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    Some countries like Italy in Ladies probably won't even send a 3rd skater to Worlds because they don't have a quality 3rd skater. It says something about the depth in Italy that their top two skaters are both 26.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Butterscotch17 View Post
    I think the most likely to secure three spots, other than your pretty obvious ones, are Chan & Reynolds and Wagner & Gold. Yuna Kim, too, but does South Korea even have two more top skaters to fill the spots?
    There's So-Youn and Hae-jin, however, I doubt they'll finished inside top ten.

    Yuna said her main goal is to bring back at least two spots-I think she can do that

  7. #7
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    I repost a question I asked in the pairs polls thread, because this thread is more appropriate.

    World Championships will qualify 16 entries to the Olympics Games. Four other countries will get a spot at Nebelhorn Trophy.
    Now, at Worlds some countries will get 3 spots, some will get 2. What happens if the sum of multiple spots is higher than 16?

    Let's consider a ranking like this:

    1 - S/S (GER)
    2 - V/T (RUS)
    3 - D/R (CAN)
    4 - B/L (RUS)
    5 - MT/M (CAN)
    6 - P/T (CHN)
    7 - S/H (CHN)
    8 - C/S (USA)
    9 - B/H (ITA)
    10 - J/C (FRA)
    11 - K/S (RUS)
    12 - V/VC (GER)
    13 - P/Z (CHN)
    14 - S/K (USA)
    15 - K/K (GBR)
    16 - DM/G (ITA)

    We have 3 spots for GER, RUS, CAN, CHN, 2 spots for USA, ITA, FRA.
    18 total spots are assigned to countries with multiple spots for 2014 Worlds.

    In such a case, only two countries will gain their olympic berth at Nebelhorn? Or some multiple Olympic entries will be cut off?
    There is almost no doubt JPN and GBR will qualify at Nebelhorn; their spots could be the only two remaining.

    On the other hand, no less than 14 spots will go to coutries with multiple entries.
    CAN and RUS will get almost certainly 3 spots. GER and CHN could manage only 2. USA and ITA will comfortably get 2 spots each one. It's 14 so far. FRA could leave London with only a spot, and unlikely GBR will climb the ranking up to the top 10, but now K/K would have their Olympic spot alredy ensured.
    JPN almost certainly, and three other countries will gain in Oberstdorf their ticket to Sochi.

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by Butterscotch17 View Post
    Yuna Kim, too, but does South Korea even have two more top skaters to fill the spots?
    Please. They have more than two.

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    Quote Originally Posted by TontoK View Post
    I think you're perhaps jumping the gun on a few of your "obvious" three spot choices.

    I'm not at all convinced that the Russian ladies will secure three spots.

    Time will tell.


    I
    ETA: An outside chance for US men to gain three spots. Not probable, but possible. The quad has made the men's event much more unpredictable.
    ITA The Russians are not a s ure bet in ladies - very vulnerable. Yep, the US probably has almost the same chance in men's as Canada for three spots.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Skater Boy View Post
    ITA The Russians are not a s ure bet in ladies - very vulnerable. Yep, the US probably has almost the same chance in men's as Canada for three spots.
    I don't think so. Kevin has some leeway and only probably has to finish around 9-11th for Canada to get 3 spots for next year because Chan will most likely finish in the top 3. On the other hand neither Minor or Aaron are probably going to finish in the top 8. Even if the US had a skater who could finish in the top 4 i still don't know if Aaron could finish high enough to get that 3rd spot.

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    I think Kevin better be shooting for top 8 this time; Chan could be off the podium.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Skater Boy View Post
    I think Kevin better be shooting for top 8 this time; Chan could be off the podium.
    Chan could fall twice and get the bronze if Dai and Yuzu are clean. He's probably 3 falls ahead of a clean Jav.

  13. #13
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    What are you talking about? Seriously, have you been paying attention this season.?
    a) Chan lost to Fernandez at SC
    b) He barely beat Fernandez at the GP
    c) Chan's Nationals (inflated right?) score is worse than Javier's Euros score.

    If Chan falls three times and Fernandez is clean, Fernandez wins. I'd argue that Fernandez can beat a clean Chan now, but that's at least a debate.

    I think France has a better shot than Canada to get three spots, but only slightly. D/R and MT/M are basically a lock for three the way they've been skating and the weak competition.

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by drivingmissdaisy View Post
    Chan could fall twice and get the bronze if Dai and Yuzu are clean. He's probably 3 falls ahead of a clean Jav.
    Not any more. Fernandez is the European Champion and he's gonna get the PCS boost now.

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ziggy View Post
    Not any more. Fernandez is the European Champion and he's gonna get the PCS boost now.
    I don't think that much will help if Chan goes clean of just 1 mistake he will win even in PCS
    also the Technical Controller will be Canadian

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