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Thread: 2013 Worlds Ladies SP

  1. #16
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    Well I think it is pretty well sealed that Osmond will place behind Gold. Osmond will have to skate briliantly and she will still probaby have trouble making top ten. GOld got a good draw as well as Li, Meite, Marchesi those three were pretty lucky. Wagner got a great spot.

  2. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by Skater Boy View Post
    Well I think it is pretty well sealed that Osmond will place behind Gold. Osmond will have to skate briliantly and she will still probaby have trouble making top ten. GOld got a good draw as well as Li, Meite, Marchesi those three were pretty lucky. Wagner got a great spot.
    The way I look at it, Osmond will barely make it into the top ten, which is all Canada needs to get two ladies' spots. Gold, as long as she doesn't get spooked, will outskate everyone in her group. Osmond is also head and shoulders the leading lady of Group 2, but skating so early may make her forgettable.

    ETA: What's so great about Meite's skate order? She'll need to have the SOHL to stand out from Murakami, Wagner, Leonova, Kostner, and Asada--and it may be too tall of an order even then.

  3. #18
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    I'm pleased that's Yuna's starting order, because given her competitive history I'd say there would have been a fair chance she would have crumbled a bit skating after the other contenders, such as Mao or Carolina. Her position puts her under less pressure, I think.

  4. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by ForeverFish View Post
    How do you figure that? The Russian Fed sent her to Worlds over Gosviani, even though Gosviani is age-eligible. They're not going to drop the country's only female Worlds medalist the year before the Olympics, especially since neither Tukt nor Sotnikova have realistic shots at winning medals with the depth of the field this year.
    It's irrelevant how Leonova skates because she won't beat Sotnikova and Tuktamysheva anyway. So no real pressure on her here. And next season, Russia has a number of skaters becoming age-eligible so bye bye Leonova.

  5. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ziggy View Post
    It's irrelevant how Leonova skates because she won't beat Sotnikova and Tuktamysheva anyway. So no real pressure on her here. And next season, Russia has a number of skaters becoming age-eligible so bye bye Leonova.
    Do you mean Lipnitskaia and Pogorilaya? Neither of whom have any major senior international experience?

    If Russia holds onto three spots, Leonova's going to the Olympics. The Russian Fed won't risk sending three mostly inexperienced skaters to represent the country on home ice. Tukt and Sotnikova are probably going to beat Leonova, yes, as they've done all season. But she was sent to Worlds for a reason.

  6. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by ForeverFish View Post
    Do you mean Lipnitskaia and Pogorilaya? Neither of whom have any major senior international experience?

    If Russia holds onto three spots, Leonova's going to the Olympics. The Russian Fed won't risk sending three mostly inexperienced skaters to represent the country on home ice. Tukt and Sotnikova are probably going to beat Leonova, yes, as they've done all season. But she was sent to Worlds for a reason.
    Lipnistkaia and Pogorilaya aren't inexperienced. They have done JGP and Junior Worlds and Lipnitskaia has done GP as well. They know very well how an international competition feels like. And they are easily going to beat Leonova next season. She's done.

  7. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ziggy View Post
    Lipnistkaia and Pogorilaya aren't inexperienced. They have done JGP and Junior Worlds and Lipnitskaia has done GP as well. They know very well how an international competition feels like. And they are easily going to beat Leonova next season. She's done.
    Agree to disagree, I suppose. I doubt the Russian Fed is going to send any skater to the Olympics if he/she hasn't even been to Worlds.

  8. #23
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    Takahashi needs to get the Beauty Bonus too if Fernandez got it

  9. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by ForeverFish View Post
    Agree to disagree, I suppose. I doubt the Russian Fed is going to send any skater to the Olympics if he/she hasn't even been to Worlds.
    It would be very stupid not to send a skater to the Olympics just because that skater has never been to Worlds when said skater regularly gets TES twice as high as Leonova.

    Of course who knows. The younger girls might not survive puberty, Leonova might become very consistent (yeah right ) but the way things look at the moment, she's going to be left in the dust next season at Russian Nationals.

  10. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ziggy View Post
    It would be very stupid not to send a skater to the Olympics just because that skater has never been to Worlds when said skater regularly gets TES twice as high as Leonova.
    Sorry, which skater is that?

  11. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by ForeverFish View Post
    Sorry, which skater is that?
    Hyperbole, obviously. But the young ones have outjumped Leonova at each and every single event this season. She can't keep up with that. She's never been consistent and she doesn't have a 3lutz/3toe.

    Unless there's a miracle and she starts skating clean programs next season, I can't see her ever making the Russian team again.

  12. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ziggy View Post
    Hyperbole, obviously. But the young ones have outjumped Leonova at each and every single event this season. She can't keep up with that. She's never been consistent and she doesn't have a 3lutz/3toe.

    Unless there's a miracle and she starts skating clean programs next season, I can't see her ever making the Russian team again.
    No, not really.

    Lipnitskaia's jumps are tiny and her 2A is atrocious. I honestly can't see her holding onto them after puberty hits, which it is currently doing. And Pogorilaya hasn't built up enough international credibility to be considered for the Oly team.

    From another perspective, by your reasoning, the Russian Fed should send two seventeen-year-olds and a fifteen-year-old to the Olympics. I can't imagine how that would go wrong.

  13. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by ForeverFish View Post
    From another perspective, by your reasoning, the Russian Fed should send two seventeen-year-olds and a fifteen-year-old to the Olympics. I can't imagine how that would go wrong.
    What does age have to do with it? You send the best skaters, end of story. Lipinski won when she was 14.

  14. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ziggy View Post
    What does age have to do with it? You send the best skaters, end of story. Lipinski won when she was 14.
    Lipinski was 15, and already had a World title under her belt. Her tech content wasn't great, but she did have amazing artistry. I would hardly consider Lipnitskaia or Pogorilaya the best in Russia, though I can see the argument being made for Tukt and Sotnikova. So, yeah--in this case, age does matter.

    ETA: Also, for what it's worth, Leonova's world ranking (4th) is a good amount ahead of Lipnitskaia's (13th). It's ridiculous to assume that one season on the senior circuit would prepare any skater for the Olympic Games, especially when they're being held on home ice.

  15. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by ForeverFish View Post
    Leonova's world ranking (4th) is a good amount ahead of Lipnitskaia's (13th). It's ridiculous to assume that one season on the senior circuit would prepare any skater for the Olympic Games, especially when they're being held on home ice.
    That's NOW, before the 2010/2011 data is purged, and the 2011/2012 data is reduced to 70% of its value.
    All Leonova's great results were in those two seasons. Her results from the current season aren't great at all.

    After the old data is removed/reduced, Leonova will drop below Sotnikova, Tuktamysheva and Lipnitskaia on the World Ranking list. And if Alena doesn't skate well at Worlds, and several ladies now below her (Meite, Gold, Marchei) do skate well, she could drop even lower.

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