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Thread: 2013 Worlds Ladies FS

  1. #16
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    LP is definitely a bigger challengo for Murakami as she will need to dodge more potential calls, which she is proned to.

    Kostner used up her WC freebie in the SP, but it is consumed on use. If she has a repeat in the LP, her final placement may look more like the Torino Worlds in 2010.

    Osmond needs to forget that this is the World Championship and skate it the best she can. Canada does not expect her to be on the podium. Anything she does now is just bonus. Skate well, and she will finish in top 10. I am not even going to guess where she may end up since it depends on which Mao and Carolina show up but I think Wagner will have a hard time passing her, the writing was on the wall in the SP.

  2. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by ForeverFish View Post
    Osmond was sixth in PCS in the SP, and third in TES--keeping in mind that many of the other ladies made serious errors.
    she beat Adelina and Gracie in PCS and close to Suzuki, realistically only Mao can challenge Osmond in PCS, Osmond can score a PCS close to Carolina and Yuna !. If Osmond skates a clean FS it will score a 130+ , Mao with this panel will be a bit vulnerable in her FS

  3. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by wallylutz View Post
    Osmond needs to forget that this is the World Championship and skate it the best she can. Canada does not expect her to be on the podium. Anything she does now is just bonus. Skate well, and she will finish in top 10. I am not even going to guess where she may end up since it depends on which Mao and Carolina show up but I think Wagner will have a hard time passing her, the writing was on the wall in the SP.
    Wagner is less than a point behind, sans triple-triple. She'll be good to go if she replicates one of her GP free skates, but with a 3-3 or 2A-3T (which she mostly had clean in practice).

  4. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by ForeverFish View Post
    Osmond was sixth in PCS in the SP, and third in TES--keeping in mind that many of the other ladies made serious errors.
    She also skated the earliest among top 6 and with a group who scored in the 40s.

    Making errors is hardly an exception for ladies these days. Besides, Wagner did not make any serious error yet she lost still. Many of the said ladies are almost always under a microscope for their rotations, which is not the case with Osmond at all. That is a huge plus already.

  5. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by ForeverFish View Post
    Wagner is less than a point behind, sans triple-triple. She'll be good to go if she replicates one of her GP free skates, but with a 3-3 or 2A-3T (which she mostly had clean in practice).
    if she skates clean she might get on the podium
    but Wagner has had 2 FS in a row with multiple errors, don't know if that will affect her mentally

    I say Gracie has a higher chance of finishing the Top 5

  6. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by sky_fly20 View Post
    she beat Adelina and Gracie in PCS and close to Suzuki, realistically only Mao can challenge Osmond in PCS, Osmond can score a PCS close to Carolina and Yuna !. If Osmond skates a clean FS it will score a 130+ , Mao with this panel will be a bit vulnerable in her FS
    PCS after the SP:

    1. Carolina KOSTNER (ITA) 33.85
    2. Yuna KIM (KOR) 33.18
    3. Mao ASADA (JPN) 32.40
    4. Ashley WAGNER (USA) 30.92
    5. Akiko SUZUKI (JPN) 30.46
    6. Alena LEONOVA (RUS) 29.83
    7. Kanako MURAKAMI (JPN) 29.77
    8. Kaetlyn OSMOND (CAN) 29.54
    9. Adelina SOTNIKOVA (RUS) 28.65
    10. Gracie GOLD (USA) 28.62

    My bad. Make that eighth.

    The math doesn't lie. Gracie and Adelina are as close to Osmond as she is to Suzuki.

  7. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by wallylutz View Post
    She also skated the earliest among top 6 and with a group who scored in the 40s.

    Making errors is hardly an exception for ladies these days. Besides, Wagner did not make any serious error yet she lost still. Many of the said ladies are almost always under a microscope for their rotations, which is not the case with Osmond at all. That is a huge plus already.
    Yes, because of her lack of a triple-triple. If you check the protocols, she has the 4th-highest PCS and 5th-highest TES.

  8. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by cooper View Post
    not a good position for yuna. skating last is not her favorite.
    I'm aware of this, but remember that out of the top contenders--including Mao and Carolina--she handled her nerves the best yesterday, and the SP is the bigger test of nerves compared to the LP. The SP is much more technical with less room for error, and so it is more nerve-wracking. But the LP is more about endurance/stamina and maintaining focus.

  9. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by ForeverFish View Post
    PCS after the SP:

    1. Carolina KOSTNER (ITA) 33.85
    2. Yuna KIM (KOR) 33.18
    3. Mao ASADA (JPN) 32.40
    4. Ashley WAGNER (USA) 30.92
    5. Akiko SUZUKI (JPN) 30.46
    6. Alena LEONOVA (RUS) 29.83
    7. Kanako MURAKAMI (JPN) 29.77
    8. Kaetlyn OSMOND (CAN) 29.54
    9. Adelina SOTNIKOVA (RUS) 28.65
    10. Gracie GOLD (USA) 28.62

    My bad. Make that eighth.

    The math doesn't lie. Gracie and Adelina are as close to Osmond as she is to Suzuki.
    Your methodology is flawed based on a faulty assumption. PCS between SP and LP don't always stay in the same range and can show significant movement between the two segments of the competition. In the case Osmond who scored mostly 7s for PCS during her SP, it is likely her potential in LP will be mostly 8s if she also has a clean LP. Therefore, attempting to project where each skater stands PCS wise based on the PCS of SP will surely prove to confusing and maybe even disappointing for some people.

  10. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by wallylutz View Post
    Your methodology is flawed based on a faulty assumption. PCS between SP and LP don't always stay in the same range and can show significant movement between the two segments of the competition. In the case Osmond who scored mostly 7s for PCS during her SP, it is likely her potential in LP will be mostly 8s if she also has a clean LP. Therefore, attempting to project where each skater stands PCS wise based on the PCS of SP will surely prove to confusing and maybe even disappointing for some people.
    This was a response to sky_fly20, based on his/her assumption that Osmond would out-PCS Suzuki and perhaps even Kostner, Wagner, and Kim in the FS. If Osmond scores 8's in the FS, which she obviously has the ability to do, then the other ladies will be in the 8-9 range. Even if the scores themselves are higher, they should be higher across the board--unless one of them has a bad skate, of course.

    Your methodology is flawed because you assume that only Osmond's PCS will increase.

  11. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by ForeverFish View Post
    Yes, because of her lack of a triple-triple. If you check the protocols, she has the 4th-highest PCS and 5th-highest TES.
    All said and done, she is still behind Osmond. Why? The red herring is irrelevant. Osmond may technically have been 8th in PCS but the actual difference is so small that it really didn't matter. Wagner has some serious technical issues and the jumping technique of her Lutz continues to be awkward - read: hopeless. She is not going to be held up like the case during Nationals - you know, winning with 2-3 clean triples and falling twice. I hope she goes out and fight.

  12. #27
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    Osmond wont out PCS Kim and Kostner
    but she can equal or pass Wagner, Murakami and Suzuki's PCS

  13. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by wallylutz View Post
    All said and done, she is still behind Osmond. Why? The red herring is irrelevant. Osmond may technically have been 8th in PCS but the actual difference is so small that it really didn't matter. Wagner has some serious technical issues and the jumping technique of her Lutz continues to be awkward - read: hopeless. She is not going to be held up like the case during Nationals - you know, winning with 2-3 clean triples and falling twice. I hope she goes out and fight.
    But it's not irrelevant, or even a red herring. Wagner's lack of technical difficulty has been the main thing barring her from truly competing with the top ladies this season. Why do you think it's been so crucial that she add a 3-3 or 2A-3T into her programs?

    Osmond was not technically 8th in PCS--she was eighth in PCS. The math doesn't lie, but that doesn't mean that her PCS won't increase.

    Wagner knows what's at stake here. So does Gold. She needs to keep her focus through the entire program.

  14. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by sky_fly20 View Post
    Osmond wont out PCS Kim and Kostner
    but she can equal or pass Wagner, Murakami and Suzuki's PCS
    Yes, especially skating in the final flight and especially if she skates well. Her PCS were not higher in the SP because she skated soooo early, had she skated later, I'm almost certain she would have wound up second or at least 3rd (and I actually think she deserved to, but more because I think Kostner and Murakami were overmarked as opposed to Osmond being undermarked). Kaetlyn was fab in her SP and if she is similarly fab in her FS she WILL be rewarded for it and the Canadian bonus will come into play so you can bet she'll be on that podium with a high, high score - of course if she makes mistakes this may not happen, but clean Kaetlyn will outscore anyone that isn't Yuna, Carolina, or Mao with credit for all her rotations, given Canadian bonus.

  15. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by silverlake22 View Post
    Yes, especially skating in the final flight and especially if she skates well. Her PCS were not higher in the SP because she skated soooo early, had she skated later, I'm almost certain she would have wound up second or at least 3rd (and I actually think she deserved to, but more because I think Kostner and Murakami were overmarked as opposed to Osmond being undermarked). Kaetlyn was fab in her SP and if she is similarly fab in her FS she WILL be rewarded for it and the Canadian bonus will come into play so you can bet she'll be on that podium with a high, high score - of course if she makes mistakes this may not happen, but clean Kaetlyn will outscore anyone that isn't Yuna, Carolina, or Mao with credit for all her rotations, given Canadian bonus.
    exactly, If Osmond skates clean she is a lock for the silver or bronze medal

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