Chances of Making the Olympics Team
with the spots determined who are likely to be on the Olympics Team Next Season
Ladies - with 3 spots back , Gracie like I said is the real hope for a medal contender, Gracie will be like Sarah Hughes by Olympics
Wagner could be on the team but I think she passed her peak
Gao, Miller, Czisny and Nagasu should vie for the last spot and stop promoting Zawadzki she not a contender at all
Dance - D/W, C/B , last three should be between H/D, A/E or Shibs, I would go with H/D, Sibs aren't a hot cake anymore and are being dropped
Men - this one is tricky, so many US men contenders but not many are stable enough Aaron, Dornbush, Farris and Brown . I think Abbott is all drained up might retire next Season ?
Pairs - D/C the and/or the Denney sister or one of S/K or C/S
Ladies - 2 spots, Leonova - She has 100% ZERO Chance, Tuk and Adelina probably because they have Worlds experience or if one miss out
either of Pogorilaya or Julia , I still hope Julia will be on the team, she did not peak last season because of injury, she can still pull a Lipinski.
the rest are 2018 skaters
Dance - B/S and I/K, R/T should not be on the team they are veterans but R/T still keep losing so many levels. S/B has a chance to get the last spot
also promoting 2018 skaters what better way to promote the son of an Olympic Champion ?
Pairs - V/T barring major disasters, B/L if she stays healthy should be there, K/S maybe - If not there is always lucky replacement No.1 S/K
also here will be A/M waiting
Men - only one man deserves and can contend for a medal and that is Plushenko
Ladies - Mao, Akiko, Murakami, If Ando returns then one could be dropped maybe Akiko
Men - this one is tricky but two should go to Hanyu and Takahashi, rest are intercahngeable
Dance - Reeds
Pairs - ? Narumi and her new partner I guess
Ladies - Osmond and maybe Daleman ? Lacoste I don't see her being selected
Men - Chan is a gold lock anyways, Reynolds and Rogozine
Pairs - D/R, MT/M and a new pairs maybe Takahashi/Purich ?
Ice Dance - V/M, W/P , Giles/Poirer are overhyped but still nothing of a great progress but Canada doesn't ahve another choice maybe Paul/Islam can sub them
Why does everybody think that Pogorilaya has a chance to make a team? She is like Shelepen2 =/ I believe it'll be Adele+Liza.
Ladies- Gold and Wagner will be on the team. Book it. I will run across Toronto wearing a pigeon costume and tape it, if somehow either arent on it. The 3rd spot will go to one of Zawadzki or Gao I think Nagasu, Czisny, and Hicks all have an outside shot a it. As for the Olympics I think Wagner wont win a World medal, if she ever does, until 2014 Worlds or 2015 Worlds (or maybe 2016) when some people have retired. I think she will stay around just for that shot, but not until 2018, and she is not a real medal contender for 2014 either at this point. Gold is more of a dark horse contender than Wagner. I could see her pulling a Hughes if she peaks for then, has the skates of her life, and alot of people bomb.
Men- Meh, not really sure. I think Aaron makes it though. The other spot will go to one of Abbott, Miner, Lysacek, Brown, or Farris. I dont think Evan even shows up at Nationals, and dont think he neccessarily makes the team even if he does. Really though nothing would surprise me other than Weir making the team. No medal hopes for the U.S at the Games in mens.
Pairs- Denney & Coughlin win Nationals and make it. 2nd spot it wide open, whoever skates better at Nationals. Obviously no medal chances here for the U.S.
Dance- Davis & White shoo ins for their record 6th U.S title and favorites for the Sochi Oly Gold. Chock & Bates likely take 2nd and for sure make the team, with a shot at a top 5, but probably not a medal yet, at the Games. The 3rd spot could go to the Shibutanis, but could also go to Hubbel & Donahue instead.
Ladies- Leonova is done. Stick a form in her, she needed to skate well at Worlds to remain relevant for next year and she didnt. Tuktamysheva, Sotnikova, and Lipnitskaya fighting for the 2 spots mostly. I have no idea which of the 2 will get it, and who will be left out, really depends entirely on how they skate the day of Nationals. All quite evently matched both in ability and consitency. An outside shot for one of the three Polinas to steal a spot though. I believe Radiaonova is ineligible, someone correct me if I am wrong. No medals for U.S women in Sochi even with home ice. Too many women better than them now.
Men- Plushenko will be given the spot if he can still stand up by then. I think it is a huge mistake if he tries to continue, more for the sake of his own body than the likely not so good finish at the Olympics, but that is his choice I guess, but his body might make the choice for him. No medals for Russian men, whoever they send.
Pairs- Voloszhar & Trankov shoo ins and heavy favorites for the Olympic Gold. Kavaguti & Smirnov and Barazova & Larionov will be the other 2 teams. Even if one bombs at Nationals they will still be sent.
Dance- The same 3 teams they sent to Worlds. Dont really see any other contenders. Bobrova & Soloviev are their medal hopefuls for Sochi.
Men- Chan and Reynolds are shoo ins. 3rd spot is fairly open amongst several men. Even Sandhu could make it if he has all his jumps back by some miracle. Rogozine and Balde I think have the best chances, but Firus and Nguyen also have a shot at it.
Ladies- Osmond for sure. 2nd spot open amongst several women, but I will be surprised if LaCoste gets it. More likely Chatrand or Daleman
Dance- Virtue & Moir and Weaver & Poje shoo ins for the 1st and 2nd spots. 3rd place will be a battle. Piper & Gilles will have to fight hard to fend off Paul & Islam and Orford & Williams. I actually will be a bit surprised if they do. After this week I think alot of the past CSA undieing devotion to all things Paul Poirier will fade, and unless they are outscoring the others on the grand prix they will really have to work hard to get that 3rd spot.
Pairs- Obviously Moore-Towers & Moscovitch and Duhamel & Radford are locks at this point. The favorites for the 3rd spot should be Lawrence & Swiegers. Purdy & Marinaro and Jones & Beharry could challenge for that spot as well though, but should be L&S if they are at all solid.
Men - I'm guessing Aaron will make it for sure, along with either Abbott, Farris, or Miner. Dornbush is a possibility as well, although he hasn't been skating that well the past couple of years.
Ladies - Wagner and Gold almost for sure, plus likely one of Gao (if she continues competing) or Zawadzki. I think Nagasu and Csizny are done on the Olympic stage, although they could surprise. Samantha Cesario is a dark horse.
Pairs - Denney/Coughlin and Scimeca/Knierim. I think Scimeca/Knierim will beat Castelli/Shnapir at Nats. Of course, there's always Davis/Brubaker but we haven't seen them and S/K are doing so well.
Dance - Davis/White, Chock/Bates, and probably the Shibutanis, unless it's Hubbell/Donahue instead. I think the Shibs will hang on to 3rd though.
Men - There's only one spot, right? I guess it will go to Plushenko and if he doesn't use it I honestly don't know. One of Kovtun, Gachinski, or Menshov, I suppose, although they don't seem too enthusiastic about the latter two skaters.
Ladies - Sotnikova and Tuktymasheva. They're still the best options even though they didn't medal at words as some expected.. unless Leonova somehow reverts to her 2011-12 self (and even then it might not be her), or Gosviani or Lipnitskaya have the skates of their lives at Nats.
Pairs - Volosozhar/Trankov, Kavaguti/Smirnov, and Bazarova/Larionov.
Dance - Bobrova/Soloviev, Ilinykh/Katsalapov, and Riazanova/Tkachenko. Does anyone else think R/T could overtake I/K?
Men - Probably Takahashi and Hanyu, although with the way he's been skating lately, "his" spot could go to Mura, Kozuka, or Oda (but probably not Oda).
Ladies - Murakami, Asada, and Suzuki, but Suzuki will have to up her game a bit.
Pairs - Umm, who are the Japanese pairs again? lol.
Dance - The Reeds and I can't remember any of the other Japanese dance teams.
Men - Chan, Reynolds and likely Rogozine. He is better than Balde in general. Firus and Jeremy Ten are dark horses. I don't think Nam Nguyen is age eligible.
Ladies - Osmond, and for some reason I think Lacoste will pull things together to come in second at Canadian Nationals next year. Either that, or she'll beat Daleman, Chartrand or whoever in a skateoff to go. I just have a feeling Lacoste will be at the Olympics - I can't picture the younger girls there.. yet.
Pairs - Duhamel/Radford, Moore-Towers/Moscovitch and Lawrence/Swiegers, who have been the clear #3 team recently.
Dance - Virtue/Moir, Weaver/Poje, and Gilles/Poirier, but there's a small chance that Paul/Islam, Orford/Williams or Ralph/Hill could take the third spot.
I would say there is more than a small chance of someone beating out Gilles & Poirier for the 3rd spot on the Olympic team. After this years Worlds I would honestly give the odds of something like this for the 3rd spot:
Gilles & Poirer- 40%
Paul & Islam- 33%
Oxford & Williams- 25%
All others combined (including Ralph & Hill)- 2%
So would still give them the best odds but actually less than even odds when all combined. If I were a bookie oddsmaker those would be how I would set them around.
Anyway I forgot Japan:
Men- Takahashi and Hanyu are locks. If one totally bombs Nationals and places low they will still be sent as Japanese do not just consider results of Nationals. Japan has 3 spots remember. I will stick with my odds I gave a couple months for the 3rd one- Kozuka 50%, Mura 25%, Machida 15%, Oda 10%. If Kozuka skates well at Nationals he gets it no question, especialy as Mura did not impress at Worlds, but he has become erratic in the last year or two.
Ladies- Asada and Murakami are locks. Suzuki will probably get the 3rd spot but if she has a bad skate at Nationals and someone else capatilizes with a good one to beat her (Imai, some up and comer, or even in a very unlikely event a returning Ando) she will not be sent to the Games.
Pairs- I dont even know if they have a pairs team anymore and frankly dont care.
Dance- The Reeds obviously.
Just curious, why do you think Ralph and Hill are pretty much out of the running? I think they have a better chance than any other team besides P/I and O/W (to take the spot away from G/P).
Originally Posted by pangtongfan
I forgot that Japan still has three spots. For some reason I was thinking they lost one. I think the third spot will go to Mura or Kozuka then, probably Kozuka but who knows.
Leonova beat tuktamisheva in the sp and was 3 points away from sotnikova. This shows that leonova could still be a contender against them because they are a mess but maybe not lipnitskaya. As far as I know the team could be lipnitskaya and leonova because Liza and Adelina are losing their talent maybe because of growth and stuff.
Best chance besides those 3 teams really means nothing, since nobody outside those 3 teams has a real chance at the 3rd spot IMO. It is like saying outside of Virtue & Moir and Davis & White that Bobrova & Soloviev have the best shot at the Oly Gold next year which is precisely nearly nothing as well. At Nationals this year they couldnt even overtake P/I who had a disaesterous FD, and were of course way behind G/P. O/W are a relatively new team and have already overtaken them and will likely keep pulling away. Could they beat 1 or 2 of those teams, maybe (although unlikely) but beating all 3 for the 3rd Olympic spot? Nearly impossible. Perhaps all 3 teams would have to fall twice and what are the odds of that.
Originally Posted by blue_idealist
only V/T is a shoo in, B/L if they get injured again or K/S continue dropping
Originally Posted by pangtongfan
then S/K will get to go or A/M
Riazanova/Tkachenko are not shoo ins
tehy continue to lose levels, some of the younger teams could pass them S/Z or M/K
I think they'll pick on S/B if they do well this coming Senior Season
Not quite, as Gold has not won a Worlds bronze before the Olympics like Hughes did.
Originally Posted by sky_fly20
Still Hughes was a shock because she was not a Gold contender
Originally Posted by Jaana
and she was considered a strong jumper in her time, nvm the discounted UR's
Sarah even though she was only 16 when she won the Olympics had not only won bronze at Worlds the year before but had gone to Worlds 3 times already by the time of the Olympics. She was a medal contender. Just not a Gold medal contender.