Sarah even though she was only 16 when she won the Olympics had not only won bronze at Worlds the year before but had gone to Worlds 3 times already by the time of the Olympics. She was a medal contender. Just not a Gold medal contender.
Ladies: Barring injury, Gracie and Ashley have a 98% chance of being on the team, as they're the ones who earned the three spots back in the first place. Christina, Agnes, and Mirai are all contenders for the bronze medal at US Nationals. I would personally like to have Christina on the Olympic team, even if she doesn't have much chance of medalling, as she's shown the greatest consistency this year. However, with how the Nationals judges have been treating her, it's likely that Agnes will get the third spot instead.
Men: Max Aaron didn't do at all poorly in his Worlds debut, so I'd give him a 70% chance. The 30% is if Jeremy Abbott or Adam Rippon manage to surge back by 2014 Nationals, which (IMO) is unlikely. Ross Miner may get the second spot, but I'd rather see one of the Junior Worlds medalists (Farris, Brown, or Omori) on the team in preparation for the rest of their senior careers.
Dance: Meryl and Charlie get a mention as a formality--I really think they're putting themselves in the perfect spot to nab OGMs. Chock/Bates should get the second spot, and the third could either go to the Shibutanis (who've had some struggles this season) or Hubbell/Donahue.
Pairs: Is it horrible to say that, no matter who we send, the US won't be getting any pairs medals at the Olympics? Now that that's confessed, I predict Castelli/Shnapir and Scimeca/Knierim.
Russia (oh dear...):
Ladies: First of all, I hope the Fed doesn't decide to toss Tukt and Sotnikova aside for their mistakes at Worlds. They were under a ridiculous amount of pressure to hold three spots, and given the circumstances, they got (justifiably) spooked. Also, a big kudos to Tukt for pulling herself up from 14th! We'll have to wait until Russian Nationals to be sure, but I think that Tukt and Sotnikova will still be the Olympic candidates. The younger girls need some time to mature before they'll be ready, and Leonova is done, IMO. Worlds was her last shot to save her wreckage of a season, and she couldn't do it.
Men: Poor Kovtun. He got shot in the foot when he was assigned to Worlds, and he botched it pretty badly. If Plushenko manages to get back into competitive shape before December, he should get the Olympic slot. If not, then it should go to Menshov, who's been snubbed enough.