Sochi favourites | Page 3 | Golden Skate

Sochi favourites

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
I think if all 3 ladies skate clean it will be a lot closer then people think.

Perhaps but I am not sure how you actually beat Yu Na when she is getting +3s on almost everything and 10s in PCS. The only way to possibly beat that is to have more difficulty. Kostner doesnt have more difficulty or a higher base value, at best she has equal, and as I said how do you pass someone based on GOE and PCS who is getting all kinds of +3s and 10s. So even though she would be the closest to Yu Na potentially in GOE and PCS I dont see where she would actually get ahead, just possibly get close (not to mention she has never done a clean 7 triple program in an international event in her life, but that is a seperate topic of sorts). Asada does have a significantly higher base value than both Kim and Kostner but gives up a ton of points to both in GOE and PCS, even in a hypothetical clean skate that I dont think it would matter, and I dont think she is even capable of a clean skate with the jump layout she is trying either. Clean for her would still be with 1 or 2 downgrades, 1 or 2 two footed jumps. Basically a skater would need to be doing Asada's jump layout and getting near perfect GOE and PCS also to actually pass Kim.

In the SP at Worlds it looked like even a clean Kim might be beatable, but the LP was back to Vancouver essentialy.
 

kimganos

On the Ice
Joined
Apr 9, 2012
Perhaps but I am not sure how you actually beat Yu Na when she is getting +3s on almost everything and 10s in PCS. The only way to possibly beat that is to have more difficulty. Kostner doesnt have more difficulty or a higher base value, at best she has equal, so even though she would be the closest to Yu Na potentially in GOE and PCS I dont see where she would actually get ahead, just possibly get close (not to mention she has never done a clean 7 triple program in an international event in her life, but that is a seperate topic of sorts). Asada does have a significantly higher base value than both Kim and Kostner but gives up a ton of points to both in GOE and PCS, even in a hypothetical clean skate that I dont think it would matter, and I dont think she is even capable of a clean skate with the jump layout she is trying either. Clean for her would still be with 1 or 2 downgrades, 1 or 2 two footed jumps. Basically a skater would need to be doing Asada's jump layout and getting near perfect GOE and PCS also to actually pass Kim.

In the SP at Worlds it looked like even a clean Kim might be beatable, but the LP was back to Vancouver essentialy.

You are probably right but If I were a judge the only elements I would have given Yuna +3GOE's on in her FS were her 3/3 combo and her 3F. I wish Mao could fix her UR issues because it would be so great to see a real competition between 3 amazing skaters if they all skated clean.
 

Krislite

Medalist
Joined
Sep 22, 2010
Perhaps but I am not sure how you actually beat Yu Na when she is getting +3s on almost everything and 10s in PCS. The only way to possibly beat that is to have more difficulty. Kostner doesnt have more difficulty or a higher base value, at best she has equal, and as I said how do you pass someone based on GOE and PCS who is getting all kinds of +3s and 10s. So even though she would be the closest to Yu Na potentially in GOE and PCS I dont see where she would actually get ahead, just possibly get close (not to mention she has never done a clean 7 triple program in an international event in her life, but that is a seperate topic of sorts). Asada does have a significantly higher base value than both Kim and Kostner but gives up a ton of points to both in GOE and PCS, even in a hypothetical clean skate that I dont think it would matter, and I dont think she is even capable of a clean skate with the jump layout she is trying either. Clean for her would still be with 1 or 2 downgrades, 1 or 2 two footed jumps. Basically a skater would need to be doing Asada's jump layout and getting near perfect GOE and PCS also to actually pass Kim.

In the SP at Worlds it looked like even a clean Kim might be beatable, but the LP was back to Vancouver essentialy.

In 4CC, Mao actually demonstrated how one could potentially beat Yuna. If she can manage to skate a clean SP with a 3Axel and a 3/3, she'll be way ahead in the SP. This means she won't even have to beat Yuna in the long program at all. The potential is there now with the new rule put in place after Vancouver to allow solo 3Axels in the women's SP. How likely is she going to do a short program with a 3Axel, a 3loop/3loop and a solo 3Flip and actually get full credit for all them? The short has never been Asada's strength, and to attempt such an ambitious layout seems a bit desperate.

For Kostner, it's a taller order, since going forward I think she'll continue to be left behind in the short. That makes it even harder to overtake Yuna in the long. But she can do it if Yuna makes mistakes. The funny thing is, it is far more like for Carolina to make mistakes than Yuna.
 

koatcue

Medalist
Joined
Aug 31, 2011
Country
Russia
I think the only skater that could challenge Yuna is Gracie Gold. If Gold can hire a better choreographer and work hard on polishing her postures(I think she has good body lines) and if She can handle the pressure and lands everything with a better program, I believe she can challenge Yuna.

I think the only skater that could challenge Yuna is Gracie Gold. If Gold can hire a better choreographer and work hard on polishing her postures(I think she has good body lines) and if She can handle the pressure and lands everything with a better program, I believe she can challenge Yuna.

I agree that she has a GOOD chance if she skates the best she can. Her speed, personality, lines...She has it all:) She just needs to be consistents and that's a huge deal. I'd personally add to the list of girls who CAN compare somehow with Yuna Zidjun Li and Osmond. I'm sure less about Osmond because shee needs to improve her jumps+ increase the difficulty. But all of them are special and has a shot for podium if clean!
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
In 4CC, Mao actually demonstrated how one could potentially beat Yuna. If she can manage to skate a clean SP with a 3Axel and a 3/3, she'll be way ahead in the SP. This means she won't even have to beat Yuna in the long program at all.

Good point. That is possible. Although I think Yu Na's next clean SP will be alot higher than her Worlds SP score where she was held back by a variety of things- bizarre edge call on the flip meaning she got -GOE vs the usual huge positive GOE; unusually mediocre PCS due to a bit of a flat and blahish performance, her starting order, and reappearing on such a big stage while others had shone in her absence; if I recall even one or two of her levels were down too. Still I think Mao's strategy of doing a 3 axel and 3-3 both in the SP is a bold and courageous one, one with potentially huge reward but also huge risk. Some of the younger guard improve and she could end up right out of the medals if she has a SP like in London. Hit everything, and she could indeed gain the edge on Kim and Kostner she needs, and probably wont be able to get just in the LP.
 

kimganos

On the Ice
Joined
Apr 9, 2012
I agree that she has a GOOD chance if she skates the best she can. Her speed, personality, lines...She has it all:) She just needs to be consistents and that's a huge deal. I'd personally add to the list of girls who CAN compare somehow with Yuna Zidjun Li and Osmond. I'm sure less about Osmond because shee needs to improve her jumps+ increase the difficulty. But all of them are special and has a shot for podium if clean!

:agree:
 

vera01

Final Flight
Joined
Jan 6, 2013
Pairs
1.V/T:They've already been having a great season so far, and plus, they're Russians.
2.S/S
3.D/R
4.MT/M

Men
1.Chan:Only if he is close to being flawless.
2.Fernandez
3.Takahashi
4.Hanyu

Ladies
1.Yuna
2.Mao or Carolina
3.Mao or Carolina
4.Kanako or Ashley
5.Kanako or Ashley
6.Zijun or Gracie and/or surprise Russian lady
7.Zijun or Gracie and/or surprise Russian lady
8.Zijun or Gracie and/or surprise Russian lady
9.Russian lady, possibly Tuktamysheva. Or it could be 3rd Japanese lady.

Ice Dance
1.V/M or D/W:I can't really choose-V/M placed behind D/W for three times, but it would hopefully motivate them to do better next season.
2.V/M or D/W
3.B/S or C/L
4.B/S or C/L
5.W/P
6.P/B or I/K
7.P/B or I/K
 

Skater Boy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 24, 2012
Seems so early but i would venture

Pairs

V and T
Ssquared
B and L or D and R

Men

Hanyu
Fernandez
Chan

Dance

D and W
V and M
B and S


Ladies

Kim
Kostner
Asada
 

ordinary person

On the Ice
Joined
Aug 6, 2009
I think the only skater that could challenge Yuna is Gracie Gold. If Gold can hire a better choreographer and work hard on polishing her postures(I think she has good body lines) and if She can handle the pressure and lands everything with a better program, I believe she can challenge Yuna.

I doubt anyone could beat Yuna at the moment, let alone Gracie Gold.
She didn't even skate her best and still was unbeatable so i'm 100% sure yuna will easily dominate 2013/2014.
 

venlac

On the Ice
Joined
Dec 22, 2012
I think the only skater that could challenge Yuna is Gracie Gold. If Gold can hire a better choreographer and work hard on polishing her postures(I think she has good body lines) and if She can handle the pressure and lands everything with a better program, I believe she can challenge Yuna.
But, I think it will be very difficult... when look back at the past competitions
there are big PCS boost to top skaters like yuna, mao, carolina..

In coc,
julia's tes= 92(short+long) pcs = 84 / asada's tes=85 pcs=95
mao asada has won.
In euros,
carolina's tes=93 pcs=101 / sotnikova's tes=99 pcs=93
carolina kostner has won.
 

LRK

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 13, 2012
It wouldnt be their motivation this time, it would be the Chinese fed. and their desperation with their plunging fortunes in pairs. The same reason Pang & Tong are even still competing IMHO. I agree it is very unlikely still, but I thought I would just throw that out to see if anyone else had considered it.

This summer S/Z officially announced their retirement at a press conference - during/after their Artistry on Ice tour; Wikipedia seems to confirm my recollection that they retired to start coaching, and if they aren't even doing show-skating anymore, I think that the likelihood that they'd reconsider and return to compete are... well, non-existent. Maybe somebody with better recollection and/or knowledge could confirm/correct?
 

Jaana

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 27, 2003
Country
Finland
Just men and ladies (in no particular order)

Chan
Fernandez
Hanyu
Takahashi
?

Kim
Asada
Kostner
Gold
Wagner
 

daphna

On the Ice
Joined
Mar 6, 2004
IMO a clean, 7 triples Kostner has a chance of gold. She may be the only lady with some sort of chance of beating Kim.
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
IMO a clean, 7 triples Kostner has a chance of gold. She may be the only lady with some sort of chance of beating Kim.

I would give the odds of gold as something like 80% Kim, 13% Kostner, 5% Mao, 2% everyone else combined.
 

gmyers

Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 6, 2010
Pairs
1.V/T:They've already been having a great season so far, and plus, they're Russians.
2.S/S
3.D/R
4.MT/M

Men
1.Chan:Only if he is close to being flawless.
2.Fernandez
3.Takahashi
4.Hanyu

Ladies
1.Yuna
2.Mao or Carolina
3.Mao or Carolina
4.Kanako or Ashley
5.Kanako or Ashley
6.Zijun or Gracie and/or surprise Russian lady
7.Zijun or Gracie and/or surprise Russian lady
8.Zijun or Gracie and/or surprise Russian lady
9.Russian lady, possibly Tuktamysheva. Or it could be 3rd Japanese lady.

Ice Dance
1.V/M or D/W:I can't really choose-V/M placed behind D/W for three times, but it would hopefully motivate them to do better next season.
2.V/M or D/W
3.B/S or C/L
4.B/S or C/L
5.W/P
6.P/B or I/K
7.P/B or I/K

These ladies predictions are hilarious! Way to hedge your bets! LOL!!!
 
Top