Can I ask a question: Isn't it possible that Wagner and Gracie won't be the top 3 at the next nationals and either of them qualifies for the Olympics? It seems everyone talks as if Wagner is definitely going to the Olympics.
Wagner is still the top American, perhaps by a small margin but she's clearly #1. Gracie has yet to skate clean enough to overtake her, and Ashley is relatively more consistent. I can see Gracie possibly overtaking Ashley next season, but three would have to surpass her and I don't see that happening so it's pretty safe she'll be an Olympian. However, I think only Gracie is potentially a medal threat because she has the content and GOE on the jumps to score well enough, and maybe over the summer she can develop more artistically to earn higher PCS.
Originally Posted by hippomoomin
At the rink. Again.
If they are both healthy, there is very little chance that either will be surpassed in the US...a clean Gold with her CURRENT PCS that she received at Worlds *could* challenge for a medal internationally at Worlds/Olympics (she gave up ~10-15 points on TES with the errors she made between the two programs between BVs and GOEs) and now that she's starting to "figure it out" competitively (how to channel the nerves and shut out the distractions), with her technique, she's going to be hard to surpass. Clean at her current PCS (which should increase as she finds her "voice" presentation-wise and choreographically), she would likely score ~65-68 in the SP and 130-5 in the LP. That's a pretty high score.
Wagner is well-respected internationally now (63+ PCS skating tentatively with a fall in your step sequence? Alrighty...) and has become very consistent under John Nicks technically. With the erratic nature of most of the current top US ladies, one might surpass her at Nationals if she plays it safe, but not two...
the Golden Era
she might win a world medal it won't be gold, Gracie will be even more propped up to get the gold
and Gracie has already been buzzed as the next American lady superstar by the medal NOT Wagner
But what if it happens both Wagner and Gold do poorly at the 14 nationals, and one of them of both of them don't end up in top 3, I mean anything is possible (e.g., who even hoped/predicted Denis Ten would be the silver medalist). Would the federation go with the Russian approach and disregard the national results? A lot of things can happen in a year, or even in a few months.
Originally Posted by drivingmissdaisy
Not going to happen. Case in point, Alissa Czisny in 2009. She bombed the LP so badly, but her PCS kept her at the top spot. They will give Hicks 50 in PCS and Wagner 70 in PCS to make sure they are on the team.
Originally Posted by hippomoomin
Russian approach is more gangster-style. You stay, you go, no reason needed. US approach is sneaky and despicable.
Gao would have to have 3A-4T to beat both of these girls, unfortunately.
I kind of agree here. Alena is a good example. The reigning WSM bombed nationals and was kicked off the Euro team in place of another low finisher (but who finished just ahead of Alena at her nationals). They gave her a chance to earn the worlds spot and she did.
Originally Posted by FlattFan
In the US, she would have been marked into 1st or 2nd place and would not have to prove herself anywhere else.
The U.S has never disregarded the National results thus far. Hence why skaters too injured to possibly skate their best just wisely WD and ask for a bye. I think Wagner or Gold would get a bye if they WD with a legit injury, but would not be put on the team if they finished 4th or 5th. Anyway I dont see the US judges letting that happen. They will give out huge PCS and astronomical GOE on the few successful elements to keep either in the top 3 even with a disaester, something they did to a certain degree for both this year.
Originally Posted by hippomoomin
Well, first of all, I don't think they'll do poorly.
Originally Posted by hippomoomin
Gracie's TES alone would rocket her to the top of the standings (especially if she adds content like the 3F-Lo-3S, or even a 3A), and after finishing a respectable sixth at her first high-pressure, high-stakes Worlds, she should know how to manage her nerves. She'll obviously need a new choreographer if she wants to challenge for top 5 at the Olympics and a medal at Worlds next year. She still seems to hold off on selling the program until she lands all of her jumps, but even her artistry has made significant improvement since Nationals.
Ashley has also, as several posters before me have mentioned, gained a great deal of respect on the international circuit this season. She undoubtedly has the best presentation of the current crop of US ladies, and I think she understands the need for a 3-3 or 2A-3T that she can land consistently next season. If she can manage two respectable showings at the GP in the fall, she may become another "Reliable Rachael" (not to jinx her or anything)--a skater who can be counted on to hit when it counts. And we've all seen the US judges' favoring of her, even above a squeaky-clean Gracie.
But, in the event that they finish, say, fourth and fifth at 2014 Nationals, the USFSA would probably still send the two of them and the first place finisher. Part of it is entitlement--they earned the three spots, so why shouldn't they get to use them? Part of it is that most skaters (excepting Mirai Nagasu and a possible Czisny return) who finish above them wouldn't have the experience that Ashley and Gracie already do.
I wish Ashley had retired a few years ago
Gold at 17 is better than Yuna Kim-tall, straight, elegant, fast, huge jumps, no ugly leg positions. She may not be as consistent as kim but
i'd rather watch Gold at 17. Yuna was awkward to use Orser's word. Gold is not the killer, cool competitor YuNa is. Unfortunately, Gold has no rival from a rival country. Gold needs to work up some feirce feelings maybe? Her Nationals LP is perfect. Her speed in spins is amazing. Her style is not balletic, it's very clean, modern athletic. She's cute but not Yuna Kim beautiful. She'll have to wait til Sochi retirements to get the scores others do with mistakes. Caro, Yuna, Mao are sentimental faves and veteran warriors. When was the last time the Oly gold and silver medalits decided to come back? I can't remember.
In a way, it is tough for the young, as the battles would be Gold, Wagner, Osmond,Kanako, Tukt other Russians. Suzuki is madly wonderful-she messed up big time. Never got her due, she missed out. In Japan, they think she's old and homely. She is great, just not the heroine Mao Asada. I think she's better to watch than Yuna. I love Akiko. But she needs a miracle to medal at Worlds or Olys. Kanako is now number two and she is good. And she fights. This was first year I liked her. Even down to the dress. I now see what I did not. At 18 she is impressive. Li is not in the league of say Wagner. Ashley really skates every note. a 3x3 in sp and more speed and she'd be running for silver at least. Leonova is not in her league-but she is so program challenged by and large. Morosov should retire. Yet last year Leonova won silver. A travesty she beat Akiko.
Osmond is so wondeful. A girl that dances into her jumps. I'll bet she'd be a top flight ice dancer if she went that way when younger. Who is like her? She light up the bldg. No stress watching her. Yuna seems dour in comparison. That girl would be on the podium but we must revere Yuna,Mao, Caro. Lets blame them for gumming up the pipleline. Maybe we should allow one quadrennial as senior? I wish congress the same (usa) Well, ok, I'm just being ridiculous with good reason. Forgive me and throw salt over your shoulder.
We have an embarassment of riches in ladies skating because some for the ages skaters won't quit til after Sochi. I forgive Caro, as she only won gold last year, and it was worth it to see her artistic skating just bloom. Mao, well, so many medals, for so long, but like Kwan, not the best one. Yuna, just plain greedy.
Seriously, all have a right (except Fumie-just retire-and you too, Alissa, LOL kidding) to compete til SSI checks begin, but I wish, in a way, we were just having the newbies. 3 medals and 6-10 are podium worthy at their best. Ashley and Grace just restored our 3rd spot, so no snsd, I'm glad Ashley kept skating. She needs to push her combo, that's all. I see the Carroll/Kwan playbook being used by Ash/Nicks. Except Ash is not Kwan. Just as pretty, lovely skater, but late bloomer. If Ashley does well or not, I think she will stay in. It looks like she is loving what she does, and I enjoy her artistry. I love what Nicks/Mills have done for her, but would like to see others doing her choreography. Yes, she has likely peaked as an athlete, but who will take her place, besides gold?
Really, should we not be mulling who deserves the new USA third spot-who we want to go to Olympics, assuming Ash/Grace take two spots? I'm happy with that. Not sure who will be best for third...is there a thread yet?
The U.S has never disregarded the National results thus far
Yes they have - Todd Eldredge!
It is interesting to read that some people want the "good" veterans to go away. I would think that having Tiger Woods in golf, Roger Federer in tennis, Michael Jordan in basketball would be absolutely great. Sport, it seems to me, is not about 'giving younger but perhaps not as good' athletes a chance by shooing away the older (at ripe old age of 22 for Asada and Kim) athletes. Nor should it be about 'sharing' the medals.
To say that since so-and-so has some number of world/olympic medals, s/he is being too greedy wanting to compete still seems.... a very strange notion.
I would definitely want to see the veterans as long as they can and want. And if they outperform the younger ones, who's to say they shouldn't participate? This is a sport. Not a community event.
I have been rooting for Wager for several years and I distinctly remember her disappointed face when she didn't make the Olympic team in 2010. I very much enjoyed her skating this season and cannot believe that she does not double-foot any more. I'm glad that she stuck out and just became a great competitor.
Also a delightful surprise is Kostner. I haven't followed her since her disastrous skates in 2009-2010. Wow. She was incredible how she didn't melt down.
As vibrant and youthful Osmond and Gold are, to me, they don't seem as good as veterans were at their age. They seem awkward to me yet. But to each his/her own.
A lot to look forward to and I hope every skater stays healthy and fired-up for as long as they can. Let's not rush anybody's retirement.
really gimble, i was being silly. Yuna is not greedy, she is very ambitious. She sees a spot in history bigger than what she has. She is the penultimate CoP skater. She doesn't suffer edge calls or urs. She is a clean jumper good at the other requirements and she wins under current rules. She is a competitor. She carefully surveyed the field while taking time off and correctly sees she at her best with her jump arsenal, experience and cool, collected skating could grab another gold. Yuna Kim 2 x gold medalist. How many Olympians, esp skaters can say that? Greatest of all time will be her moniker and who will do it again?
This may be less of a coronation than last time. Really, she will be held up and overscored in PCS. I think she left Asada in the dust by 30 points last Olympics despite great skating, 3 triple axels. I found it really unfair scoring. As I said in the pre-worlds thread, if she still has the difficult, oh so clean jumps, she really cannot be beaten unless she has a fluke fall on her combination. World's was impressive despite an unappealing SP. She still won. Judges love her. I'd bet money on her now. I am hoping Caro is so cleanly magnificent but how likely is that at her 3rd ? Olympics. Mao can't do the pressure anymore. Only Grace Gold has the jumps, speed, ice coverage, great body, ice princess look and well, we all know what she is up against. Maybe in 4 years. Yuna is gonna repeat if at this level, barring injuries. She won 2013 worlds. The great oz has spoken.
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