03-23-2013, 01:02 AM
There is a ton of Mirai overrating in this thread. If you like her and want her to be on your fantasy Olympic team, that is fine. However more chances to medal than Agnes and Gao? The chances for all 3 of those ladies to medal in Sochi is exactly zero, so how can one evaluate who has more chance, lol! Even Wagner and Gold have quite small chances to medal, and they are light years beyond any other American in international respectability at the moment. NHK was the absolute bet Nagasu can skate at this stage of her career, and it still was a very distant 3rd in a field with only about 3 of the top 12 skaters today. Mao skated lamely with 3 triples and still beat Nagasu not only overall but even in the LP, yet Mao would be about 8th at Worlds with a skate like that.
As for sending her to the Olympics if she didnt finish top 3 at Nationals, that is quite the joke. A skater who has been 7th the last 2 years at Nationals. If anything Nagasu might be one of the skaters the USFSA considers having a skateoff for the Olympic team or something like that, if she finishes 3rd at Nationals, unless she has a great grand prix series. Forget the idea of her being sent over people who finish higher at Nationals, Wagner and Gold (if by some miracle either is out of the top 3 at Nationals) are the only ones who might get extended such a courtesy or would have earned it with anything they did the last year or so. No Mirai will have to come 3rd (or higher) at Nationals if she wants to go to the Games, and if she wants to do that it will take a very strong whole season probably, and great performances at Nationals with no UR calls. Anything less and it isnt going to happen.
As for the comparision to Zawadzki and Gao, peak Mirai (2010-2011) was probably a better skater than either might ever be, but both are more likely to be around longer, possibly even to 2018, neither has recently regressed like Nagasu even if they arent improving the way the USFSA might hope either, so in terms of looking to give someone the experience that could benefit the U.S in the years they come they would probably be more favorable in that regard, so yes more likely in a close call they would get the benefit of the doubt (although Gao hasnt gotten much love from US judges in the past, while Agnes arguably gets too much). Mirai is basically just looking to wrap up a respectable although enigmatic Senior career with one more trip to the Olympics.
03-23-2013, 01:12 AM
Gao is scored much more harshly at Nationals until now than Nagasu so you switch the little from from National judges and absolutely no favors from National judges around. I agree Nagasu isnt traditionally a favorite of U.S judges, but Gao is much less of one. The only time I thought Nagasu was robbed of anything was 2nd place at Nationals in 2011 where she should have beaten an already washed up Rachel Flatt, one of many poor decisions by the U.S over the years which extended their 2 women only drought. 2010 she lost Nationals due to blatantly correct UR calls so cant question that. For all the howling about her placing at Nationals this year I thought that was completely correct, given that everyone except Gold and Wagner did a virtually clean skate in the top 8 or top 10, and she had numerous glaring errors. In fact I dont even know how she beat Cesario for instance. Gao's 5th place was by far the biggest injustice of Nationals this year. Nagasu's placing given her mistake filled program at the end of a quality event (minus Wagner's troubled LP) shouldnt have even been worth discussing.
Originally Posted by b-man
The USFSA will send the 3rd place finisher to the Games no matter who it is. The only exception might be if it is a junior skater they dont trust at all, but even that would be silly as any youngster could benefit from the Olympic experience, and it is not like the 3rd U.S lady (whoever it is) is any threat for anything more at the Games than maybe a respectable top 10 or top 12. If Agnes is placed 3rd at Nationals for another poor LP it obviously means the USFSA is still heavy on her bandwagon (for whatever reason) so even more certainly yes she would be sent in that case. If she places top 3 at Nationals with an actual strong performance, all the more reason for the USFSA who loves her for years now to send her. If Gao places 3rd it probably means she skated extremely well (given how she is scored at Nationals past) so yes she would be sent for sure too. The only way Mirai will be sent is if she places 3rd or higher as well.
03-23-2013, 01:17 AM
Gracie for sure, Ashley need to get something as good as Black Swan program, with 3/3, 2A/3T and 6 triples program.
Mirai, but she has to earn it!! IF she didn't earn it, she doesn't deserve it. A bonus would Christina Gao, but I am a bit iffy about her chances and internationally standing without USFA really having a good record of throwing their weight behind her.
03-23-2013, 01:26 AM
You failed to mention that NHK was a head to head competition between Mirai and a current USFSA favorite and contender for a spot in Sochi, Agnes. Mirai medaled with a 176 score, and did score well despite all the UR's you quoted. Agnes, was buried in fifth place, 16 points behind Mirai.
Originally Posted by chuckm
03-23-2013, 01:29 AM
I agree that the top three finishers at US Nat'ls probably will and should go. Only something flukey would change that. I just hope Mirai has that season...if not...oh well, someone else deserves it. Kinda like I wish Sasha had a worlds or oly title, but she never kept all together when it counted most...oh well...
03-23-2013, 01:30 AM
So that is one competition. Mirai skated the absolute best she is capable of skating now, and at a level she rarely skates to nowadays. Agnes skated quite badly even for her own inconsistent standards. At her previous Grand Prix in a much deeper field she had skated quite well and won a grand prix bronze herself, only 9 points back of Olympic team lock Gold. Nagasu, Zawadzki, and Gao all won a grand prix medal this season, and Gao was the only one who made it to the Grand Prix final (and who cares if she finished last, Nagasu and Zawadzki would finish last in such a field too, none are among the Worlds elite today and would be outclassed by them, but Gao made it somehow, so that is an edge period), so I fail to see Mirai's edge.
Originally Posted by b-man
03-23-2013, 02:34 AM
Sounds about right to me, but I can't face Caroline without a chance. (I remember her spellbinding magic at 207 Spokane!)
Originally Posted by sky_fly20
03-23-2013, 02:47 AM
Originally Posted by pangtongfan
Mirai has talent. She needs to trim down, develop a can-do-will-do mentality, get the best coach in the country and follow his (yep, Frank Carroll's) demands. A tough prescription, but perhaps the only possible road to a national/international success for which she's quite capable. I wish her the best!!
03-23-2013, 06:09 AM
Wicked Yankee Girl
I'd like to see Gracie, Ashley & Angela Wang on the team. But Angela has to learn to skate two good programs in one competition for that to happen.
03-23-2013, 10:23 AM
Actually Pangtongfan, we agree much more than we disagree. We agree that Gao and Nagasu have never been favorites of USFSA judges, and have gotten no favors. We agree that Nagasu will need to finish third, or better to get an Olympic or world assignment. And you also indicate that Agnes might get favorible treatment in a close competition, which I agree with and which I think she already benefitted from in Omaha. I don't think Agnes and certainly not Gao will be around in 2018. As to where Mirai may have some edge, I laid that out in post 94, showing Mirai has a better international record than Gao or Agnes, even after her peak in 2010.
Originally Posted by pangtongfan
03-23-2013, 11:57 AM
I want Gold, Nagasu, and Miller, but that's only going to happen if a bunch of people bomb in 2013-2014
03-23-2013, 01:08 PM
03-23-2013, 01:10 PM
I would like to see that too. Wang has tons of potential and it would be great experience to go to the Olympics. It's time to look to the future. I'm not sure if Mirai is a part of it same thing with Agnes and Christina. Alissa is done after next season i would think. Next cycle will be skaters like Gracie, Angela Wang, Hannah Miller and Polina Edmunds along with perhaps Leah Keiser and Mariah Bell.
Originally Posted by dorispulaski
03-23-2013, 01:20 PM
Gracie, Ashley...and whoever has the best combination of programs/performance at Nationals. I honestly don't have a preference between Christina Gao, Agnes Zawadzki, Mirai Nagasu, Caroline Zhang, Angela Wang, Samantha Cesario, etc.
03-23-2013, 01:28 PM
Rachael Flatt could come back and stir things up.
Originally Posted by FlattFan