Well, OK, who do you think will take the bronze next year?
Agnes Zawadzki--she has come in third two years in a row, the judges seem to like her there. On the other hand, she has done so poorly on the GP circuit, I can see them getting mad at her and keeping her down. Still probably the front-runner--50%.
Alissa--if she skates clean at Nationals, she will be on that podium and sent to the Olympics, there is no doubt in my mind. However, I think it's only about a 40% chance she'll be there at all it's 50/50 if good or bad Alissa will arrive, so I'd give her 20%.
Christina--the nationals are not her thing. I thought for sure she'd be on the podium after making the GPF, but I guess not. Unless she medals at the GPF next year, she will likely come in 5th again. I'd give her about 20%
A new person--I would love that, since I don't see Christina, Agnes or Alissa as having much hope for 2018. If any kid from the juniors can come and be Gracie's bridesmaid for the next 4 years, that would be fine with me. Still, only a 10% chance of that. There doesn't seem to be a clear frontrunner of any of the junior girls.
As for Gracie and Ashley-I think there is a small chance one or both won't make it (barring injury). Neither of them are consistent. Do I think that one or both will melt down and not make the team? No. Can I rule it out? Absolutely not. They're the best the US has got right now, but it's not like 1998 when you knew it would be Michelle and Tara. Really, they're both stuck at that Angela Nikodinov/Jenny Kirk/Tonya Kwiatkowski level of excellence, which means anything could happen.