Which THREE U.S. Ladies do you want to see at the Olympics next year? | Page 11 | Golden Skate

Which THREE U.S. Ladies do you want to see at the Olympics next year?

jaylee

Medalist
Joined
Feb 21, 2010
I am not denying Gracie is talented and I can't say I saw her skate live at Worlds, I'm sure she was much improved from the summer. All I'm saying is that the summer before Gold's break-out season, she was scoring in the 40s for PCS and her FS scores were around 100 to 110 - in other words, VERY comparable to Edmunds now so if Gracie can come that far in terms of scores and placements and being a factor on the World stage in a year and a half then that means there's a chance could do the same thing and be in a similar situation to Gracie in a year and a half. That's more what I'm saying. Gold is a great skater for sure, but she also got hyped and pushed out onto the scene at warped speed, giving chances the USFS would not have given to other skaters. I'm not saying she didn't deserve those chances, arguably she did, but she was lucky to get sent to a JGP after not qualifying for Nationals (I think she's the only female skater to have done that ever), and to get sent to WTT when she was not even a senior domestically, and to get the nod to compete on the GP this season versus the JGP, and to get 2 spots after having minimal WS points. That is all I'm saying. Does her talent warrant her express speed trajectory and the opportunities she was given? Yes, sure. But are there other very talented skaters who have not been given the same kind of treatment and/or opportunities despite similar results? Yes. So she is a special case.

Who exactly are these talented skaters who didn't get the same kind of treatment as Gracie Gold did despite "similar results"?
 

ForeverFish

Medalist
Joined
Aug 21, 2012
Edmunds has already competed as a junior at US Nationals for 3 seasons and won the title this seasons so I'm pretty sure she will compete at senior Nationals next season...and she is a breakthrough star like Gracie Gold she's just younger and breaking out a year later and USFS already jumped on the Gracie Gold bandwagon so they are not going to treat Polina the same way, there's not time for her to become established enough to be a big hope for Sochi. There's a small chance she could make the team, but only as a 3rd entrant and not one USFS would really be expecting much from. Gracie is good but I'm not convinced she's way better than a lot of the other girls, she just happened to break onto the scene at the right time when USFS needed a go-to ladies star and no one else was a strong bet so they went with her and her PCS astronomically increased over the course of a few months time (without her artistry visibly improving dramatically IMO).

Polina may decide to challenge herself by competing at senior Nationals next season, but it would be an unwise choice. She hasn't yet received any JGP assignments--her ONLY international competition thus far has been Gardena--and URs in front of a senior judging panel will crucify her (a la 2013 Mirai Nagasu). Polina's best bet is to stay on the junior circuit and establish a name for herself, and then try her hand against the senior ladies after Sochi.

Also, regarding the definition of "breakthrough" star:

Final standings of the 2012 US Nationals (Junior Ladies):

1. Gracie GOLD 178.92
2. Ashley CAIN 155.48

Final standings of the 2013 US Nationals (Junior Ladies):

1. Polina EDMUNDS 159.87
2. Mariah BELL 152.80

In 2011, Gracie didn't even qualify for Nationals. In 2012, Gracie cleared the rest of the field at Nationals by more than 20 points (breaking a domestic junior ladies' record score in the process) with her high, clean, fast jumps that already rivaled the senior ladies'. She then went on to take silver at Junior Worlds, defeating the more experienced Adelina Sotnikova, and placed fifth at WTT with her junior programs. THAT is what I consider a breakthrough star.
 

chuckm

Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 31, 2003
Country
United-States
Gracie had gone through a growth spurt and that's why she didn't make it to 2011 Nationals. But the summer of 2011, she scored high numbers in her summer comps, winning Skate Detroit and Glacier Falls. As pointed out, she got the last JGP of the season because Siraj was injured and couldn't compete. She went on to win the Junior title at 2012 with a record high score, then won silver at JW, which proved USFS was correct to give her the JGP spot.

Polina Edmunds had finished 6th in Juniors at 2012 Nationals and was 7th at 2011 Nationals. She started off the summer of 2012 with some very high scores, but these gradually got lower and lower as the summer went on. JGP slots that summer/fall went to the Juiors who'd finished just behind Gracie at 2012 Nationals: Cain (2), Miller(3), Long(4) and Bell(5). The other spots went to Hicks (2011 Jr Champ who was injured in her 2nd JGP), and Seniors Wang, Keiser, Cesario, Lam, Baga and Jiang.
Edmunds was on the substitute list (as Gold had been the previous year) but didn't get an assignment because there were several ladies who'd won medals in their first event and were eligible for a second.

Gracie lucked out in the summer of 2011 and Edmunds didn't last summer.
 

silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
Who exactly are these talented skaters who didn't get the same kind of treatment as Gracie Gold did despite "similar results"?

Zawadzki was dominant like Gracie the summer and fall before she won junior nationals and silver at JW and was not given a JGP or sent to WTT. Courtney Hicks was also really good the year she won junior nats and had made nationals the season before that and didn't get a JGP that season, and competed on the JGP the following season instead of the senior GP. Josh Farris had a boatload of JGP medals to his credit and won JW silver (half a point off the winner's score compared to the 15 point margin between Julia and Gracie) and was sent back to the JGP this season to help older skaters who didn't have 2 events secured get 2 events and leave space for the Evan and Johnny comebacks that didn't really materialize, and there were tweets, he wanted to compete on the GP, USFS chose not to submit his name. I wouldn't be surprised if they pulled the same stunt with Jason Brown this upcoming season. Gracie lucked out. She's a bright talent and she's starting to live up to all the hype which is great, but she did get special treatment of sorts in that she was not issued the "we need you to wait your turn" memo that so many others have been over the years.
 

chuckm

Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 31, 2003
Country
United-States
Courtney Hicks won 2011 Nationals as a Junior; she was 5th as a Novice in 2010. Hicks DID go to the 2011-2012 JGP after winning Nationals 2011: she won her first JGP event in Australia, then broke her leg right at the beginning of her second JGP in Italy. She was unable to go to 2012 Nationals because she was still in a cast. USFS sent her to the 2012-2013 JGP and she won one silver medal and finished 4th in her second event. Why would USFS have sent Hicks to the GP in 2012? She was low on the WR and SB and hadn't competed internationally since she broke her leg in the fall of 2011.

Gracie has received treatment from USFS commensurate with her talent. Yes, she lucked out getting that JGP event in 2011, but she proved that she was deserving, since she did win it, and went on to win Nationals as a Junior, a silver JW medal, and a respectable 5th place (out of 12) at WTT 2012. Gracie really hasn't been treated any more royally than Kaetlyn Osmond has been treated in Canada, and Osmond hasn't performed as well in the Senior Championships as Gracie.

As for Josh and Jason, as of last June, neither was high enough on WR and SB to ensure getting two GP events. Now they ARE in a position to get two, because of their stellar performances in the JGP and JW. Josh will be moving up to the GP, but Jason has said he will do whatever USFS wants him to do. So if Jason stays JGP, it won't be due to a "stunt".
 

jaylee

Medalist
Joined
Feb 21, 2010
Zawadzki was dominant like Gracie the summer and fall before she won junior nationals and silver at JW and was not given a JGP or sent to WTT.

There was no WTT in 2010 or 2011. ;) And, IIRC, people thought it was very unfair that Zawadzki didn't get a JGP slot--and it looked like the USFSA learned from that mistake by giving Gracie a JGP. Which, again, they only gave to her because a last-minute withdrawal opened up a spot at the very last event. I don't think that happened in Zawadzki's case. I don't think Gracie got "special treatment" as much as benefiting from a very unique circumstance that didn't happen with Zawadzki or others.

Courtney Hicks was also really good the year she won junior nats and had made nationals the season before that and didn't get a JGP that season, and competed on the JGP the following season instead of the senior GP. Josh Farris had a boatload of JGP medals to his credit and won JW silver (half a point off the winner's score compared to the 15 point margin between Julia and Gracie) and was sent back to the JGP this season to help older skaters who didn't have 2 events secured get 2 events and leave space for the Evan and Johnny comebacks that didn't really materialize, and there were tweets, he wanted to compete on the GP, USFS chose not to submit his name. I wouldn't be surprised if they pulled the same stunt with Jason Brown this upcoming season. Gracie lucked out. She's a bright talent and she's starting to live up to all the hype which is great, but she did get special treatment of sorts in that she was not issued the "we need you to wait your turn" memo that so many others have been over the years.

As for Josh Farris, the men's field is a totally different deal than the ladies field. It's far deeper and more competitive. While with the ladies, there's no problem with plunging into the senior GP and having junior skaters move to the senior GP before they can compete at Worlds, it's the opposite with the men--better to stay on the JGP a little longer. I don't see the USFSA unfairly holding Josh Farris back while giving special treatment to Gracie. Gracie had a better shot for success on the senior GP than Josh Farris did.
 

silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
Courtney Hicks won 2011 Nationals as a Junior; she was 5th as a Novice in 2010. Hicks DID go to the 2011-2012 JGP after winning Nationals 2011: she won her first JGP event in Australia, then broke her leg right at the beginning of her second JGP in Italy. She was unable to go to 2012 Nationals because she was still in a cast. USFS sent her to the 2012-2013 JGP and she won one silver medal and finished 4th in her second event. Why would USFS have sent Hicks to the GP in 2012? She was low on the WR and SB and hadn't competed internationally since she broke her leg in the fall of 2011.

Gracie has received treatment from USFS commensurate with her talent. Yes, she lucked out getting that JGP event in 2011, but she proved that she was deserving, since she did win it, and went on to win Nationals as a Junior, a silver JW medal, and a respectable 5th place (out of 12) at WTT 2012. Gracie really hasn't been treated any more royally than Kaetlyn Osmond has been treated in Canada, and Osmond hasn't performed as well in the Senior Championships as Gracie.

As for Josh and Jason, as of last June, neither was high enough on WR and SB to ensure getting two GP events. Now they ARE in a position to get two, because of their stellar performances in the JGP and JW. Josh will be moving up to the GP, but Jason has said he will do whatever USFS wants him to do. So if Jason stays JGP, it won't be due to a "stunt".

I meant Courtney Hicks did not get any JGP assignments the season she won the Junior Nationals title, not the season after. The season after winning the Junior Nationals title both Zawadzki and Gold competed on the senior GP, and Hicks only on the JGP, so there is another example. And Farris was in the top 24 SB list last season and would have had 1 senior GP event secured, and probably could have gotten 2 if the USFS was willing to push for him or give him a host spot, but they thought Razzano and Lysacek were better options... And Farris would have likely done fine on the GP, his SB last season was virtually the same as Miner and Rippon and while neither of those two dominated on the GP this season, they did respectably. It's not like Gracie made the GPF anyways.

And the Osmond situation in Canada is like Gold but worse, I agree, but that's because since Joannie left Canada has had no one decent (apart from the one flukey Worlds where Phanuef finally skated to her abilities and was 5th) to compete on the World stage, so Kaitlyn wins Nebelhorn and seems to have some kind of consistency with her jumps and it's like all hail the new ice princess. There are a host of really strong ladies in the US so the situation with Osmond in Canada is less surprising, of course now Canada seems to have some strong other ladies coming through the ranks as well but that only really became apparent this season. In the end it's all fine because Gracie is starting to show why get pushed into the big time so fast might have been worth it in her case, but her situation and trajectory is a special and unusual case and one not often seen (and though her abilities account for some of this, there was also some help and support, chances, luck, good timing, etc. that made a difference).
 

mskater93

Record Breaker
Joined
Oct 22, 2005
The JGP event Gold got in the fall of 2011 was due to two things: Siraj stepping back from her second event and Gold winning Glacier Falls with a big FS score (102) with a mistake which has been the "summer monitoring event" and is THE MOST IMPORTANT for a skater who's not initially given any internationals to make an impression on the international committee and at least get on the sub list (and everyone KNOWS which events are monitoring events) while Edmunds had some technical issues this last summer at Glacier Falls (which was again the summer monitoring event) and only put up an 88 FS score in final round. Basically, an 88 isn't going to WOW the international committee - they could send some of the domestic Seniors who are age eligible and they can score that or better on a bad day; it was a big red flag that Edmunds wasn't ready to be thrust in front of international judges and tech panels as they didn't want her to get a reputation as a skater with a chronic under rotation issue. That would end her international career real quick.

Gold got invited to WTT last year when Czsiny, Zawadski, Zhang, Gao, Flatt, and Nagasu all turned it down. Did you want them to invite Vanessa Lam to WTT last year since she was the next highest Senior score at Nationals, even though Gold thoroughly beat her at JWs in 2012? Even though it's sort of a cheese event, there is some desire by each country to win and Gold is a better choice than Lam.

I don't see where Gold is getting "special treatment" and "super duper politikal backing" and Edmunds is getting/has gotten shafted (other than not getting a slot at JWs this year, but when you look at her Nationals scores and the age eligible Seniors who DID get selected, it makes more sense as Gold's Nationals (Junior) score in 2012 would have placed her 3rd in Senior ladies without even adding in the spiral sequence while Edmunds would have been 12th in Senior ladies with her winning score this year, likely 11th with a choreo sequence added in (2-3 points) which would be behind Hicks, Siraj, Cesario, Miller, and Wang).

Edmunds needs to show consistency on her elements, especially on the +3T in both the SP and LP. Gold started showing that consistency from spring of 2011 (Northern Blast competition) and into the summer (Detroit, Glacier Falls) and fall (Greater Chicagoland Fall Invitational, JGP event).
 

mskater93

Record Breaker
Joined
Oct 22, 2005
I meant Courtney Hicks did not get any JGP assignments the season she won the Junior Nationals title, not the season after. The season after winning the Junior Nationals title both Zawadzki and Gold competed on the senior GP, and Hicks only on the JGP, so there is another example.
Hicks stayed on the JGP the season after her Nationals win because she did NOT medal at JWs and didn't have enough ranking points to try and get SGP events. That is a poor example.

You can't compare the situation in Men's with the situation in ladies.
 

silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
I had no idea all those skaters had turned down WTT but now this is making more sense.

And maybe men and ladies aren't comparable but there have been a lot of dumb decisions made on behalf of the USFS regarding GP and JGP spots, like the US men's champion not getting a GP event, and Armin not getting a host pick after placing 4th at Nationals (well, at least not until Lysacek withdrew). And while 88 is not a wow score, Edmunds also had a 101 and a 114! from earlier in the summer so she had at least shown she had potential to do really well. And I think Nina Jiang's highest FS score from the summer was like an 83, and her other scores were in the 70s, and she was given a JGP. So if an 88 (along with a 101 and 114) is not wow enough to give someone a JGP then why is an 83 and a 74? And Polina had been at Nationals the season before too, she wasn't in a tough situation where she didn't qualify and therefore it would have required not following standard protocol to send her.
 

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
I had no idea all those skaters had turned down WTT but now this is making more sense.

And maybe men and ladies aren't comparable but there have been a lot of dumb decisions made on behalf of the USFS regarding GP and JGP spots, like the US men's champion not getting a GP event, and Armin not getting a host pick after placing 4th at Nationals (well, at least not until Lysacek withdrew). And while 88 is not a wow score, Edmunds also had a 101 and a 114! from earlier in the summer so she had at least shown she had potential to do really well. And I think Nina Jiang's highest FS score from the summer was like an 83, and her other scores were in the 70s, and she was given a JGP. So if an 88 (along with a 101 and 114) is not wow enough to give someone a JGP then why is an 83 and a 74? And Polina had been at Nationals the season before too, she wasn't in a tough situation where she didn't qualify and therefore it would have required not following standard protocol to send her.

I don't agree with the protocol but it's clear they gave Jiang the JGP based on her Nationals result (she finished just outside the top 10) but they probably shouldn't have sent Jiang based on her poor summer results.

Plus if you look at the distribution of JGP spots, they tend to give it to the junior-level skaters in seniors first then they go to the junior level. Gracie Gold got fast tracked to seniors (as Agnes did after finishing second at JW). From there, they went right down the rankings: Cain, Miller and Long (and Long only got one event). Mariah Bell did not get an event and she finished above Polina.

So it's unfortunate and I don't agree with it, but given Polina's OK-ish result at Nationals, she had a burden that Nina Jiang did not to really show off during the summer comps. So when Polina started strong and started decline as the summer went on (and those URs) could probably put question marks in people's heads about whether she should get a JGP or not.

Again, I think Polina should have received a JGP, but I can see why she didn't wow them enough to persuade TPTB.
 

96skiluvr

On the Ice
Joined
Apr 3, 2013
Gold got invited to WTT last year when Czsiny, Zawadski, Zhang, Gao, Flatt, and Nagasu all turned it down. Did you want them to invite Vanessa Lam to WTT last year since she was the next highest Senior score at Nationals, even though Gold thoroughly beat her at JWs in 2012? Even though it's sort of a cheese event, there is some desire by each country to win and Gold is a better choice than Lam.

I don't see where Gold is getting "special treatment" and "super duper politikal backing" and Edmunds is getting/has gotten shafted (other than not getting a slot at JWs this year, but when you look at her Nationals scores and the age eligible Seniors who DID get selected, it makes more sense as Gold's Nationals (Junior) score in 2012 would have placed her 3rd in Senior ladies without even adding in the spiral sequence while Edmunds would have been 12th in Senior ladies with her winning score this year, likely 11th with a choreo sequence added in (2-3 points) which would be behind Hicks, Siraj, Cesario, Miller, and Wang).

That's not what happened....Czisny turned down the WTT, so they offered it to the junior champion next, who was Gold. They didn't offer it to the top 8 or so places before offering it to Gold
 

R.D.

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
So...this thread is about which three might be sent to Sochi, right...and why are we talking about Edmunds and the JGP again? :p
 

mskater93

Record Breaker
Joined
Oct 22, 2005
You apparently don't understand completely how Junior and some Senior international events are assigned since you think Gold got something out of the norm (ie outside standard protocol): standard protocol is that age eligible seniors and juniors who were at Nationals the previous year are "ranked" for JGP and Senior B events and then summer monitoring competitions (for the last two years, it's been Glacier Falls) are where those currently on the sub list or not even in the ranking are evaluated by the international committee to either make the sub list or get an early international or make your case for two JGPs. Gracie went to GF in 2011 summer and impressed the international committee there with her skate and was added to the sub list and then was quite lucky Siraj asked to be withdrawn from her second event and someone else who had already had a first event didn't score well there and so wouldn't be considered for a second event. She got the very last slot open that fall. It wasn't like she knocked it out of the park at GF and got the first event of the season and then a second, which would have deviated from standard protocol. There were several skaters ahead of Edmunds at Nationals last year in both the senior and junior ranks in terms of scores and consistency who got JGP (and some 2 events) in the "ranking" process such as Cesario, Miller, Lam, and Wang. The 88 and the skate itself at GF in FR was NOT impressive and did throw read flags to the international committee with the URs. You didn't address this at all and so I will ask a second time: Why subject her to an international judging and tech panel and her to get UR or DG calls and start obtaining a reputation as having chronic UR issues? This says to me that USFS has high expectations for her in the future but felt that she wasn't quite ready yet (versus some other skaters that they kind of throw to the wolves). In addition, Barbie Long only got one (late) JGP event (and scored a medal there) and had finished 4th in Juniors ahead of Edmunds and Mariah Bell got ZERO JGP events last year and also finished ahead of Edmunds at Junior Nationals in 5th. Long's 3+3s have been much more consistent and for a longer period of time than Edmunds.

Jiang was sent ahead of Gold the year before as well.
 

Eddie Lee

On the Ice
Joined
Jan 19, 2007
Olympic is the culmination of four years and the send-off for the following four. Over the years, I have noticed that judging is considerably stiffer. In Olympic judging, mistakes are more costly, and technical feats are rewarded generously when performed well. I doubt that it will be possible for a man to win gold without at least two quads, or a female to win gold without a 3/3 combo. I think a fall will be extremely costly as it has always been in Olympics, and I doubt that gold will be awarded to any skater with such a failure in either program, but certainly not in the Long program. Olympic judges prefer artistry and technique without mistakes--all judges do! I just think that Olympics demands more perfection, and no mistakes. Ashley has the ability to skate a clean program, artistically, but no 3/3 combo. Gracie has the 3/3, wonderful speed and ease across the ice. I'm hoping her team will get her top-notch choreography to display her remarkable skills. Add Marai with a solid mental resolve, ideal fitness and Frank Carroll-type coaching--or a fully-recovered Alyssa--and we might get a lady on the podium.
 
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ForeverFish

Medalist
Joined
Aug 21, 2012
Olympic is the culmination of four years and the send-off for the following four. Over the years, I have noticed that judging is considerably stiffer. In Olympic judging, mistakes are more costly, and technical feats are rewarded generously when performed well. I doubt that it will be possible for a man to win gold without at least two quads, or a female to win gold without a 3/3 combo. I think a fall will be extremely costly as it has always been in Olympics, and I doubt that gold will be awarded to any skater with such a failure in either program, but certainly not in the Long program. Olympic judges prefer artistry and technique without mistakes--all judges do! I just think that Olympics demands more perfection, and no mistakes. Ashley has the ability to skate a clean program, artistically, but no 3/3 combo. Gracie has the 3/3, wonderful speed and ease across the ice. I'm hoping her team will get her top-notch choreography to display her remarkable skills. Add Marai with a solid mental resolve, ideal fitness and Frank Carroll-type coaching--or a fully-recovered Alyssa--and we might get a lady on the podium.

Mirai and Alissa have a LOOOOONG way to go before they'll be in any shape to challenge for an Olympic spot, much less an OM. If Mirai's UR's (not really a matter of fitness, IMO, but a matter of technical weakness) buried her at NATIONALS, can you imagine what the Olympic judges would have to say? And Alissa, after two hip surgeries, is unlikely to ever return to her 2011 form (not to mention that Ashley and Gracie--a rookie!--have both outscored Alissa's PB).

I agree that, ideally, either Mirai or Alissa could complete the strongest team that the US has sent to an international event in years. But, realistically, the battle for that third spot will between three: Agnes Zawadzki and Christina Gao, with the faintest glimmer of hope in Courtney Hicks. The only US lady with any hope of winning an Olympic medal is Ashley Wagner, and even with a 3-3 in both programs, she would need a disaster from one of the Big Three (Yuna, Carolina, or Mao).
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
An Olympic medal would be a fantasy for Nagasu and Czisny at this point, skaters who even at their long ago peak never managed a single World medal, and who are no longer USFSA are judges favorites of any sort. One of them making the Olympic team and competing in Sochi would be their gold medal.
 

Eddie Lee

On the Ice
Joined
Jan 19, 2007
An Olympic medal would be a fantasy for Nagasu and Czisny at this point, skaters who even at their long ago peak never managed a single World's medal...]

But Both have triumphed at one time or another on the international scene ....Mirai 4th at Vancouver O's and Alyssa is a Grand Prix Final Champ. Both have the amazing ability, they just have to groom, train & produce them. I would say at this point Ashley and Gracie are our best prospects, and I stand by my choice of Alyssa or Marai (with their past achievements) as the best prospects for our third lady team member. True, Alyssa's recovery and self-confidence are factors, as well as Marai's determination, fortitude and discipline. (With Mao's and Caroline's recent successes, their spotty past failures tend to fade in ones memory. Since the elimination of figures, Olympics can sometimes be a fickled lady.)
 

chuckm

Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 31, 2003
Country
United-States
Past glory doesn't mean much in the end---it's what a skater is able to put out on the ice at Nationals. Mirai hasn't been able to do that, finishing 7th two years in a row. Alissa was able to win Nationals in odd-numbered years (2009 and 2011) and in between had some rough years. But 2014 is not an odd-numbered year, and Alissa is recovering from two surgeries. It remains to be seen if, at 26, she can regain her 2011 form without putting any undue pressure on her delicate hip. Michelle Kwan resumed skating after her 2006 hip surgery for the same injury as Alissa's, but she wasn't able to regain all her jumps, and she was certainly a far more consistent skater than Alissa has ever been.
 

R.D.

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
As far as I'm concerned, both Czisny and Nagasu are done. Nagasu (if healthy) could very well have an outside chance at spot #3 if she's at her best...but unless Zawadzki completely falls apart (possible!) I don't see it happening. Czisny- well, self-explanatory by this point.
 
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