03-28-2013, 09:52 AM
Well, OK, who do you think will take the bronze next year?
Agnes Zawadzki--she has come in third two years in a row, the judges seem to like her there. On the other hand, she has done so poorly on the GP circuit, I can see them getting mad at her and keeping her down. Still probably the front-runner--50%.
Alissa--if she skates clean at Nationals, she will be on that podium and sent to the Olympics, there is no doubt in my mind. However, I think it's only about a 40% chance she'll be there at all it's 50/50 if good or bad Alissa will arrive, so I'd give her 20%.
Christina--the nationals are not her thing. I thought for sure she'd be on the podium after making the GPF, but I guess not. Unless she medals at the GPF next year, she will likely come in 5th again. I'd give her about 20%
A new person--I would love that, since I don't see Christina, Agnes or Alissa as having much hope for 2018. If any kid from the juniors can come and be Gracie's bridesmaid for the next 4 years, that would be fine with me. Still, only a 10% chance of that. There doesn't seem to be a clear frontrunner of any of the junior girls.
As for Gracie and Ashley-I think there is a small chance one or both won't make it (barring injury). Neither of them are consistent. Do I think that one or both will melt down and not make the team? No. Can I rule it out? Absolutely not. They're the best the US has got right now, but it's not like 1998 when you knew it would be Michelle and Tara. Really, they're both stuck at that Angela Nikodinov/Jenny Kirk/Tonya Kwiatkowski level of excellence, which means anything could happen.
03-28-2013, 11:52 AM
If Agnes and Alissa both skated cleanly at Nationals or with comparable mistakes I think the judges would go with Agnes for sure at this point, and Alissa is just as inconsistent and likely to bomb relatively speaking as Agnes considering her age, injuries, history. There are also reports Alissa might not be able to get her spins back to the same level as before due to her back problems. If that is the case she is toast, as she just becomes a slow and cautious skater, with smallish and weak jumps (even landed), nice spirals, mediocre jump content, inconsistency, and no recent success to give her brownie points by.
03-28-2013, 08:23 PM
It'll be a fight to the death between Agnes and Christina for that third spot. Unfortunately, it seems that the USFSA and its judges are done with Mirai, who seems to have peaked at the 2010 Olympics. But she could prove me wrong with good skates at this next GP season...
03-28-2013, 08:37 PM
Ashley and Gracie earned their spots on next year's Olympic team.
For the third spot, I would be happy with Mirai or Alissa - whichever one of them skates better next season.
03-28-2013, 09:23 PM
Wishing everyone to skate the best (but ice is slippery as we all know), but my preferred podium would have to be some combination of Ashley, Gracie, and Mirai. Granted, Mirai is definitely a volatile wild card, but if not, then I would definitely like to see Christina Gao earn the third spot. Other contenders I see include Agnes Z., Alissa Czisny, and perhaps a newcomer in Angela Wang (if she brings it in both programs).
03-29-2013, 12:33 AM
Gao needs to quit school for a year and devote herself i hope. She could be in top 12. Gracie is going to be great. I see another Sarah Hughes when she feels confident. I wish she were with Lori Nichol next year. I just think he can do much more to showcase her talents.
03-29-2013, 01:19 AM
Christina has already said she is taking a year off from Harvard for the Olympic season.
I'd like Christina most for the third; I'd rather Zawadzki than Mirai or Alissa.
03-29-2013, 04:26 PM
I've said it before i would one of the younger girls like Hicks or Wang to get that 3rd spot. Agnes has yet to prove her internationally and Christina seems to be such a quiet kind of skater that she doesn't get the big scores even when clean. Mirai seems to have peaked and Alissa well who knows with her. So why not send someone for the experience?
03-29-2013, 08:17 PM
Six Point Zero
She's got much more talent and potential than Sarah Hughes did. IF she keeps it together and improves artistically, I don't see her being a flash-in-the-pan fluke champion like Hughes at all.
Originally Posted by skateluvr
03-29-2013, 11:24 PM
Agnes Zawaszki could easily get the 3rd spot, because she is great at short programs. But she consistently falls apart in the free and i think at next years nationals we may see her fall off the podium. If she were to pull together 2 clean programs she could be 1st at nationals
Alissa Czisny is out of the question, she will never make it to the podium. Rachael flatt has a better chance to make the podium than alissa.
Gao will place 5th haha
Caroline Zhang also out of the question.
I do hope that someone like Courtney Hicks could make it to olympics.
Obviously you would assume Ashley and Gracie will make it to olympics. They are clearly the better skaters in Us but they really have to improve on components if they want a chance to medal at olympics
03-30-2013, 12:12 AM
I don't believe Ashley and Gracie have any chance of a medal at Sochi because even with technically perfect 7-triple programs they wouldn't get the PCS scores Kim, Kostner and Asada get when not perfect.
03-30-2013, 12:16 AM
What abourt Mirai, Alyissa, Rachel and Caroline? angela wang? I think they are all gunning for that final spot.
Originally Posted by ForeverFish
03-30-2013, 12:19 AM
I see your point but alyssa and mirai are such crap shoots. I almost dont' think they deserve to go to the Olys and definitely not medal there as they are so so so inconsistent. So much unfulfilled talent. But both may be past their best before dates not to sound mean. Mirai was fourth at the last olympics and in the lead and well.. she has faile dto keep the momentum. Alyssa has had not just bad skates but horrific, terrifying, tragic, disgusting skates. some may say she doesn't deserve another chance as she has had so many already.
Originally Posted by prettykeys
03-30-2013, 12:22 AM
Originally Posted by Krislite
So you're saying that Gao has the potential to be a TWO time Olympic champion? Gimme a break.
Originally Posted by Krislite
When 2014? Certainly Not. 2018 maybe. Sarah Hughes was not a fluke champion.
Let’s compare. Christina Gao has been to 4 National championships and placed 5th each time.
When SaraH Hughes had been to 4 National Championships, she had placed 4th, 3rd, 2nd, and 3rd. She had already won 4 GP medals, and a bronze medal a GP Final
Christina Gao has won 1 GP medal and was dead last at the GP Final.
And Sarah Hughes I went to Worlds and palced 7th, 5th, and 3rd.
So Sarah Hughes is a fluke, and Chriatina Gao is a seady contender. She’s steady all right. Steadily 5th.
And who cares about potential? If this world were judged on potential, it would be a different place.
They don't (or shouldn't) judge people on potential. The judges just need to leave the "would've kicked butt if she lived up to her potential" points at home.
Gao's problem is similar to Caroline Zhang's problem and Wagner's problem pre-2012.
She has a very low ceiling for a total score. The highest she has ever scored is 176 something.
176 won't win a Olympic medal.
She needs to win a National Championship to get the score boost that she needs.
She only has one GP Medal, in a weaker-than-Wednesday Skate America.
Mirai: She peaked in 2009-2011.
Agnes: She can't skate a clean long program for the life of her.
Alissa: With back-to-back hip injuries, I don't think her body will allow her to compete.
The Bottom line is that the USFSA is going to make this like 2002 and 2006. They will send one Adult(Wagner) and two up-and-coming teenagers. I think that one of the other teenagers will be Gold.
Who will be the other teenager:
Agnes Zadawski: Falls apart in high pressure competitions.
Courtney Hicks: Ditto, see 2013 Junior Worlds.
Yasmin Siraj: Too inconsistent.
Angala Wang: Too unpredictable
Smantha Caesario: Too vulnerable, especially since she's had chronic UR issues since 2010
Alissa Czisny: Don't need to say anything.
Caroline Zhang: The USFS whipping girl won't catch a break this time.
Hannah Miller: Great extroverted skater, but the judges don't like her.
Ashley Cain: Raisin' Cane in the bottom 10!
Mirai Nagasu: She's keeps reinventing herself every season and it keeps failing. In 2010-2011, she wanted to reinvent herself as a skater who skated clean long programs. Didn't work. In 2011-2012, she tried to be sexy because she was 18 now, blah blah blah. Didn't work. In 2012-2013, she tried to reinvent herself as a consistent reliable skater. Didn't work.
Vanessa Lam: Oft-injured.
Leah Keiser: Same here, she should have gone to JUNIOR nationals IN 2012. Moved too quickly to senior.
The more I think about it, I think that Christina Gao WILL be the 3rd us lady. She has the least bomb potential. and Olympic year nationals seems to bring out the bombs in people (Alissa Czisny 2006, 2010), Caroline Zhang 2010, Danielle Kahle 2006. There's a reason why the 2006 nationals and the 2010 nationals are the lowest scoring US ladies nationals ever. Some skater do well. Some skater crumble under the pressure. But, she will be fortunate to be top 10 in the Olympics.
1. Yu-Na Kim
2. Mao Asada (by a closer margin this time)
3. Carolina Kostner
The judges already have their medalists picked out.
And what's with all this "IF" stuff?
IF an asteroid hits the earth, we'll all be dead in 10 years.
There is or there is not. There is no “if”.
03-30-2013, 12:32 AM
Six Point Zero
I was referring to Gold--not Gao. Please read the quote I was responding to before going on a rant.
Originally Posted by Reginald
And yes, I still think Sarah Hughes' Olympic gold medal was a fluke. She had a lot of help from other skaters to win that night. Moreover, she never won any other major title, not even U.S. Nationals. Definitely a stroke of luck.