04-05-2013, 10:40 AM
I had no idea all those skaters had turned down WTT but now this is making more sense.
And maybe men and ladies aren't comparable but there have been a lot of dumb decisions made on behalf of the USFS regarding GP and JGP spots, like the US men's champion not getting a GP event, and Armin not getting a host pick after placing 4th at Nationals (well, at least not until Lysacek withdrew). And while 88 is not a wow score, Edmunds also had a 101 and a 114! from earlier in the summer so she had at least shown she had potential to do really well. And I think Nina Jiang's highest FS score from the summer was like an 83, and her other scores were in the 70s, and she was given a JGP. So if an 88 (along with a 101 and 114) is not wow enough to give someone a JGP then why is an 83 and a 74? And Polina had been at Nationals the season before too, she wasn't in a tough situation where she didn't qualify and therefore it would have required not following standard protocol to send her.
04-05-2013, 11:03 AM
I don't agree with the protocol but it's clear they gave Jiang the JGP based on her Nationals result (she finished just outside the top 10) but they probably shouldn't have sent Jiang based on her poor summer results.
Originally Posted by silverlake22
Plus if you look at the distribution of JGP spots, they tend to give it to the junior-level skaters in seniors first then they go to the junior level. Gracie Gold got fast tracked to seniors (as Agnes did after finishing second at JW). From there, they went right down the rankings: Cain, Miller and Long (and Long only got one event). Mariah Bell did not get an event and she finished above Polina.
So it's unfortunate and I don't agree with it, but given Polina's OK-ish result at Nationals, she had a burden that Nina Jiang did not to really show off during the summer comps. So when Polina started strong and started decline as the summer went on (and those URs) could probably put question marks in people's heads about whether she should get a JGP or not.
Again, I think Polina should have received a JGP, but I can see why she didn't wow them enough to persuade TPTB.
04-05-2013, 11:14 AM
That's not what happened....Czisny turned down the WTT, so they offered it to the junior champion next, who was Gold. They didn't offer it to the top 8 or so places before offering it to Gold
Originally Posted by mskater93
04-05-2013, 11:15 AM
So...this thread is about which three might be sent to Sochi, right...and why are we talking about Edmunds and the JGP again?
04-05-2013, 11:19 AM
At the rink. Again.
You apparently don't understand completely how Junior and some Senior international events are assigned since you think Gold got something out of the norm (ie outside standard protocol): standard protocol is that age eligible seniors and juniors who were at Nationals the previous year are "ranked" for JGP and Senior B events and then summer monitoring competitions (for the last two years, it's been Glacier Falls) are where those currently on the sub list or not even in the ranking are evaluated by the international committee to either make the sub list or get an early international or make your case for two JGPs. Gracie went to GF in 2011 summer and impressed the international committee there with her skate and was added to the sub list and then was quite lucky Siraj asked to be withdrawn from her second event and someone else who had already had a first event didn't score well there and so wouldn't be considered for a second event. She got the very last slot open that fall. It wasn't like she knocked it out of the park at GF and got the first event of the season and then a second, which would have deviated from standard protocol. There were several skaters ahead of Edmunds at Nationals last year in both the senior and junior ranks in terms of scores and consistency who got JGP (and some 2 events) in the "ranking" process such as Cesario, Miller, Lam, and Wang. The 88 and the skate itself at GF in FR was NOT impressive and did throw read flags to the international committee with the URs. You didn't address this at all and so I will ask a second time: Why subject her to an international judging and tech panel and her to get UR or DG calls and start obtaining a reputation as having chronic UR issues? This says to me that USFS has high expectations for her in the future but felt that she wasn't quite ready yet (versus some other skaters that they kind of throw to the wolves). In addition, Barbie Long only got one (late) JGP event (and scored a medal there) and had finished 4th in Juniors ahead of Edmunds and Mariah Bell got ZERO JGP events last year and also finished ahead of Edmunds at Junior Nationals in 5th. Long's 3+3s have been much more consistent and for a longer period of time than Edmunds.
Jiang was sent ahead of Gold the year before as well.
04-05-2013, 02:20 PM
Olympic is the culmination of four years and the send-off for the following four. Over the years, I have noticed that judging is considerably stiffer. In Olympic judging, mistakes are more costly, and technical feats are rewarded generously when performed well. I doubt that it will be possible for a man to win gold without at least two quads, or a female to win gold without a 3/3 combo. I think a fall will be extremely costly as it has always been in Olympics, and I doubt that gold will be awarded to any skater with such a failure in either program, but certainly not in the Long program. Olympic judges prefer artistry and technique without mistakes--all judges do! I just think that Olympics demands more perfection, and no mistakes. Ashley has the ability to skate a clean program, artistically, but no 3/3 combo. Gracie has the 3/3, wonderful speed and ease across the ice. I'm hoping her team will get her top-notch choreography to display her remarkable skills. Add Marai with a solid mental resolve, ideal fitness and Frank Carroll-type coaching--or a fully-recovered Alyssa--and we might get a lady on the podium.
Last edited by Eddie Lee; 04-05-2013 at 05:27 PM.
04-06-2013, 12:12 PM
Mirai and Alissa have a LOOOOONG way to go before they'll be in any shape to challenge for an Olympic spot, much less an OM. If Mirai's UR's (not really a matter of fitness, IMO, but a matter of technical weakness) buried her at NATIONALS, can you imagine what the Olympic judges would have to say? And Alissa, after two hip surgeries, is unlikely to ever return to her 2011 form (not to mention that Ashley and Gracie--a rookie!--have both outscored Alissa's PB).
Originally Posted by Eddie Lee
I agree that, ideally, either Mirai or Alissa could complete the strongest team that the US has sent to an international event in years. But, realistically, the battle for that third spot will between three: Agnes Zawadzki and Christina Gao, with the faintest glimmer of hope in Courtney Hicks. The only US lady with any hope of winning an Olympic medal is Ashley Wagner, and even with a 3-3 in both programs, she would need a disaster from one of the Big Three (Yuna, Carolina, or Mao).
04-06-2013, 12:16 PM
An Olympic medal would be a fantasy for Nagasu and Czisny at this point, skaters who even at their long ago peak never managed a single World medal, and who are no longer USFSA are judges favorites of any sort. One of them making the Olympic team and competing in Sochi would be their gold medal.
04-06-2013, 01:07 PM
[QUOTE=pangtongfan;733667]An Olympic medal would be a fantasy for Nagasu and Czisny at this point, skaters who even at their long ago peak never managed a single World's medal...]
But Both have triumphed at one time or another on the international scene ....Mirai 4th at Vancouver O's and Alyssa is a Grand Prix Final Champ. Both have the amazing ability, they just have to groom, train & produce them. I would say at this point Ashley and Gracie are our best prospects, and I stand by my choice of Alyssa or Marai (with their past achievements) as the best prospects for our third lady team member. True, Alyssa's recovery and self-confidence are factors, as well as Marai's determination, fortitude and discipline. (With Mao's and Caroline's recent successes, their spotty past failures tend to fade in ones memory. Since the elimination of figures, Olympics can sometimes be a fickled lady.)
04-06-2013, 01:17 PM
Past glory doesn't mean much in the end---it's what a skater is able to put out on the ice at Nationals. Mirai hasn't been able to do that, finishing 7th two years in a row. Alissa was able to win Nationals in odd-numbered years (2009 and 2011) and in between had some rough years. But 2014 is not an odd-numbered year, and Alissa is recovering from two surgeries. It remains to be seen if, at 26, she can regain her 2011 form without putting any undue pressure on her delicate hip. Michelle Kwan resumed skating after her 2006 hip surgery for the same injury as Alissa's, but she wasn't able to regain all her jumps, and she was certainly a far more consistent skater than Alissa has ever been.
04-06-2013, 01:46 PM
As far as I'm concerned, both Czisny and Nagasu are done. Nagasu (if healthy) could very well have an outside chance at spot #3 if she's at her best...but unless Zawadzki completely falls apart (possible!) I don't see it happening. Czisny- well, self-explanatory by this point.
04-06-2013, 02:30 PM
I agree-- to an extent. A skater must put out a program that will place them in the top three at Nationals. But a case in point. ....1998 Michelle won Nats without dispute. Tara fell in the SP. At 1998 Olympics, Michelle was deemed a shoo-in. She entered the LP in first. She skated a beautiful, slightly conservative LP, without a real hitch. When she finished that program, I think it was a foregone conclusion that she had aced the gold. Then along came Tara, the last skater with a not-quite-perfect skate, but a more technically advanced LP, skating with abandon--executing a 3/3 combo, plus a 3/3 sequence. We know the result! And four years later, who wudda dared predict Sarah--that is anyone other than Time Magazine!! In neither case had Nationals picked the winner. Not a perfect analogy, but still a bit puzzling. It proves the danger of "post-figures" Olympic predictions.
Originally Posted by chuckm
Last edited by dorispulaski; 04-07-2013 at 12:56 PM.
Reason: fix quote
04-06-2013, 03:32 PM
Well, as far as I am concerned, Agnes is done. Six GP's, only a bronze. Two 4 continents opportunities, best was a 6th. All time international PB, below Hannah Miller, who has far less international experience.
Originally Posted by R.D.
04-06-2013, 03:47 PM
I agree with 96skiluvr on this. I have seen no evidence that WTT was offered last year to Agnes, Zhang, Gao, Flatt and Nagasu. If you have a link to show that happened, please supply it. I think Gold did get some special treatment being offered WTT as a junior over senior skaters, but she did skate well at WTT, so it did work out.
Originally Posted by mskater93
04-06-2013, 05:23 PM
But national judges seem to favor Agnes--she's a two-time US bronze medalist, and this year, she placed in front of Christina Gao when many felt that Gao had skated better.
Originally Posted by b-man
Mirai clearly does not have the same advantage, as the judges have hammered her all the way down to seventh at her own Nationals for two years in a row. And do I even need to explain about Alissa? I think that the 22nd at 2012 Worlds sealed her fate, though the USFSA was merciful enough to give her a single GP assignment in the fall (which she ultimately rejected due to her hip). This second surgery is a hint to everyone that her body can no longer take the wear and tear of competitive skating.