Time to turn the page for skaters like Alissa and Mirai. Unless Mirai suddenly starts to rotate her jumps maybe she has a chance but she's not the same skater as in 2010. She's lost speed and the joy of skating. Sometimes she has looked like a zombie when she's skating. As for Alissa the world is a different place then 2011. Now most all the top skaters are doing 3-3 combo's. Amazing how just two years ago people were saying how bad the Ladies field was and now it's loaded again perhaps even more then heading into the last Olympics.
Mirai is--or was--still skating well enough to win medals on the GP circuit (e.g. bronze at NHK this year). If she can hold it together at Nationals, I think she still has a fighting chance.
Originally Posted by Jammers
Alissa is a lovely skater but I think the injuries are a sign of her body sending her a message.
I just checked the international records over the last 3 years (after Mirai's best year). Agnes has been in 6 GP's, yet in five of the six she has finished fifth or worse, and has only a bronze to show for the six appearances. She has been named to the 4CC team twice, yet only managed finishes of 6th and 8th.
Originally Posted by MarkusNJ
Christina has been in 4 GP's, and was able to get a silver at SA this year which had the weakest ladies field of the six GP's. With an injury withdrawal, she was a sub in the GP final where she finished last, a distant 19 points behind 5th. To her credit, she did beat Gold and Agnes at this years 4CC, but still only 4th behind the 3 Japanese skaters.
Mirai has been in 6 GP's the last 3 years, but has not one medal like Agnes and Christina, but 3 medals. Mirai was only sent to 4CC once, but managed a medal, unlike Agnes and Christina. She got a bronze behind Miki and Mao who both scored over 190. So she has an international record far better than Agnes and equal or better than Gao. So those who say Mirai is done should also be saying Agnes and Gao are done.
I would like to see : Gracie Gold, Mirai Nagasu and Alissa Czisny to the Olympic
The problem is Mirai seems to have peaked in 2010 and hasn't gotten better . Gao on the other hand is on the upswing and had a breakout year. Agnes seems to be stagnating at the moment. She needs to break through next season.
Originally Posted by b-man
Agree that Mirai peaked in 2010, she now has regressed, down to, but not below, the level of Christina and Agnes. If Gao is on the upswing, it is at a rate so imperceptable that many don't see it. She is skating well internationally, but not well enough to medal. Agnes is only a year younger than Mirai, has been given as many or more chances than Mirai in the last 3 years and has nothing to show for it. If Mirai is done, I would still argue Gao and Agnes are also done, and we don't have a third skater for the third spot in Sochi. But I don't think Mirai or the other two are done, all should be given a shot. And in post 92 you indicated the top skaters should be doing 3-3 combos. Mirai did a triple toe- triple toe in her SP at Omaha that was ratified, which as you know all the US ladies team is not currently doing.
Ashley, Mirai and Caroline.
I don't think that is very likely, but I would love to see the 3 of them go.
Mirai has grown physically since the 2010 Olympics, and with the growth her jump technique has failed her. She has a big UR problem. In the Cup of China FS this past year, she URd all the triples and a few doubles, too. She medaled at NHK, but still URd four jumps. She isn't going to do well in a major competition if she can't rotate her jumps. Yes, she does medal from time to time, but in the past two years, she hasn't had two good competitions in a row.
Alissa Czisny is turning 26 soon, and she's had two major surgeries in the past year. Even when she was younger and healthy, she was an inconsistent jumper.
Like Forrest Gump's box of chocolates, with Mirai and Alissa, when it comes to competition, you never know what you're going to get.
I think Ashley and Gracie should go to Sochi, but I would be dismayed if Mirai or Alissa was the third lady. As for sending Mirai and Alissa, as some posters are suggesting, leaving Gracie and Ashley at home, I would be horrified. I wouldn't even want to watch the competition.
Agreed Mirai is a little heavier at 19 than at 16. And, like a box of chocolates, you don't know what performance you are going to get. But you pretty much know what you are going to get with Agnes, and the record isn't good. Gao has been better this year, but she still only medaled with a very watered down field at SA. With Mirai, at least there is a potential upside. She still has a better percentage of medaling than either Agnes or Christina. I still am of the opinion that her problems are more with skating under pressure rather than weight. She tends to do worse in the Nationals FS where the pressure is higher than in other competitions. If she went to Sochi or worlds as the third US skater, with lower expectations, she could very well thrive in that environmenwt.
Originally Posted by chuckm
03-22-2013, 09:33 PM
Mirai HAS to skate well at Nationals if she wants to go to Worlds/Sochi. If she can't handle the Nationals pressure, how the heck can she handle Olympic pressure? And why should she be given such a huge gift as a berth for Sochi if she finishes 7th at Nationals for the third time in a row?
To become Olympians, skaters have to EARN the privilege by finishing in the top 3 at Nationals. And that applies to Mirai and Alissa. I just hope USFS doesn't give either one a PCS gift to ratchet up their placements.
03-22-2013, 10:14 PM
I don't think so. Gracie will be 18 in August, and if I remember correctly, she hit her major growth spurt during her junior career. Most girls are finished growing by 16, or 17 in some cases.
Originally Posted by Poodlepal
03-22-2013, 10:37 PM
Gracie seems to be on the right trajectory - a bit better every time out
Ashley has the rep to get the good PCS
Mirai could beat them both (though not long for Gracie) if she could dial into her programs mentally and physically - I hope she gets the third spot
Christina I like a lot, but seems a little tentative. My choice for first alternative
If any of the above slip I hope the spot goes to Hicks, Wang, Miller or one of the other youngsters
03-22-2013, 10:48 PM
Mirai hasn't beaten Ashley since 2010 Nationals. At 2012 Nationals, Mirai scored 163.99 and Gracie scored 178.92 winning Juniors, with one fewer spin than Mirai. At 2013 Nationals, Gracie outscored Mirai 186.57 to 173.75; Mirai did beat Gracie in the SP, 64.39 to 54.08, but Gracie landed 7 triples in the FS, while Mirai landed only 2 (she URd 4 others).
Maybe if Mirai corrected her jump technique she could beat Ashley and Gracie some day, but not any time soon.
03-22-2013, 10:59 PM
Well, the federation has to send someone. Do You prefer Agnes being held up in 3rd with falls in the SP and FS and a poor international record, or you prefer Christina who has finished 5th four years in a row, and who gets little favor from nationals judges, or Mirai who gets good results internationally, but absolutely no favors from Nationals judges? Apparently you don't mind some getting a PCS gift as long as it isn't Mirai. If it was a clear decision for the third pick, there would be no need for this thread. And as far as Mirai needing to skate well at Nationals to go to Sochi/worlds, that is probably correct. Judging from this past season, others can be held up and go to ISU championship events without skating well at Nationals.
Originally Posted by chuckm
03-22-2013, 11:02 PM
There is a ton of Mirai overrating in this thread. If you like her and want her to be on your fantasy Olympic team, that is fine. However more chances to medal than Agnes and Gao? The chances for all 3 of those ladies to medal in Sochi is exactly zero, so how can one evaluate who has more chance, lol! Even Wagner and Gold have quite small chances to medal, and they are light years beyond any other American in international respectability at the moment. NHK was the absolute bet Nagasu can skate at this stage of her career, and it still was a very distant 3rd in a field with only about 3 of the top 12 skaters today. Mao skated lamely with 3 triples and still beat Nagasu not only overall but even in the LP, yet Mao would be about 8th at Worlds with a skate like that.
As for sending her to the Olympics if she didnt finish top 3 at Nationals, that is quite the joke. A skater who has been 7th the last 2 years at Nationals. If anything Nagasu might be one of the skaters the USFSA considers having a skateoff for the Olympic team or something like that, if she finishes 3rd at Nationals, unless she has a great grand prix series. Forget the idea of her being sent over people who finish higher at Nationals, Wagner and Gold (if by some miracle either is out of the top 3 at Nationals) are the only ones who might get extended such a courtesy or would have earned it with anything they did the last year or so. No Mirai will have to come 3rd (or higher) at Nationals if she wants to go to the Games, and if she wants to do that it will take a very strong whole season probably, and great performances at Nationals with no UR calls. Anything less and it isnt going to happen.
As for the comparision to Zawadzki and Gao, peak Mirai (2010-2011) was probably a better skater than either might ever be, but both are more likely to be around longer, possibly even to 2018, neither has recently regressed like Nagasu even if they arent improving the way the USFSA might hope either, so in terms of looking to give someone the experience that could benefit the U.S in the years they come they would probably be more favorable in that regard, so yes more likely in a close call they would get the benefit of the doubt (although Gao hasnt gotten much love from US judges in the past, while Agnes arguably gets too much). Mirai is basically just looking to wrap up a respectable although enigmatic Senior career with one more trip to the Olympics.