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Thread: GP Speculation-2013-2014: THE LADIES

  1. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by AlexRus View Post
    2.2 (e) of Annunce.
    They are included in Selection process after Top12 Worlds, Returning, Top24 Rating, Top24 Season Best, before skaters who have Season Best lower than Top24.
    In practice if they are in Top24 Season Best - it means two Events.
    No, it doesn't. The only skaters GUARANTEED two events are the top 12 at Worlds. Figure it out yourself, looking at the list of those on the WR and SB lists.

    Here's how it works:
    1. Each host federation is entitled to 3 host picks, who can be, but do NOT have to be top 12 at Worlds or on the top 24 of the WR and/or SB lists.
    2. Each host must select two seeds: one from 1-3, and one from 4-6
    3. Each host selects two skaters from those who finished 7-12 at Worlds, or any returning skaters who have finished top 6 in the previous two World championships

    After those selections, there may be as few as 3 singles slots per host, or 18 altogether for all of the hosts. There are 18 ladies on the WR and SB lists. Obviously, there aren't enough slots for all 18 ladies to get two events each. That's why two spots are guaranteed for the top 12 at Worlds, but not for the top 24 on the lists.

  2. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by chuckm View Post
    JW and JGPF medalists are no longer guaranteed GP events. That happened after singles were reduced from 12 to 10, and dance from 10 to 8. That doesn't mean those skaters WON'T get GP events, it's just not guaranteed. Lipnitskaia obviously has already been on the GP and will be again this season. Radionova and Pogorilaya may get events----or not.
    If their names are submitted for GP events Radionova and Pogorilaya WILL get at least 1 event due to being on the top 24 SB list. What is up in the air is if they get 2 events or only 1, and this uncertainty could cause either or both girls to opt to stay on the JGP another season instead. Personally I think they could both hold their own on the senior GP and would likely have a good chance to get 2 assignments each, especially with COR taking place in Russia so host spots being available, however, the decision is up to the girls and their coaches.

  3. #18
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    I see no reason not to give Radionova at least one GP assignment--why not CoR? She may not be eligible for senior ISU events next season, but she and her coaches would appreciate the practice for this coming quadrennium. And Radionova herself has expressed the desire to skate against the world's top ladies and see where she fits in. At this point, she can't realistically contend against any of the younger seniors (Tukt, Sotnikova, Gold, Li, Osmond) in semi-clean form, but that's no reason for the Russian Fed to stagnate her progress by keeping her on the JGP when she's already demonstrated that she can outskate every single one of them.

  4. #19
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    Lipnitskaia got two GP's this year. Radionova, as succeeding junior world champion, should and probably will get two assignments in the coming year.

  5. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by chuckm View Post
    No, it doesn't. The only skaters GUARANTEED two events are the top 12 at Worlds. Figure it out yourself, looking at the list of those on the WR and SB lists.

    Here's how it works:
    1. Each host federation is entitled to 3 host picks, who can be, but do NOT have to be top 12 at Worlds or on the top 24 of the WR and/or SB lists.
    2. Each host must select two seeds: one from 1-3, and one from 4-6
    3. Each host selects two skaters from those who finished 7-12 at Worlds, or any returning skaters who have finished top 6 in the previous two World championships

    After those selections, there may be as few as 3 singles slots per host, or 18 altogether for all of the hosts. There are 18 ladies on the WR and SB lists. Obviously, there aren't enough slots for all 18 ladies to get two events each. That's why two spots are guaranteed for the top 12 at Worlds, but not for the top 24 on the lists.
    In theory - yes. If there are 9 "returning" (it is theoretically possible because of two seasons of "return", up to 6 skaters each season) and all 18 home-picks are not of "Tops" (Top-12 of World, Top-24 of WS and SB) - only Top-12 of Worlds and 9 "returning" will occupy all 42 non-home-picks.

    In practice situation wery differs from it.
    Many home-picks are of "Tops", somebody WD, etc. Newer were so many "returning" skaters.

    Season 2013/2014.
    There are 14 guranteed (Top-12 of Worlds, two "returning" and we don't know will they really return).
    12 of Top-24 of WS (others are in 14 guranteed).
    12 of Top-24 of SB (others are in 14 guranteed).

    Home-picks are often known.

    USA will pick:
    Wagner (or less probably Gold).
    One or two of Nagasu, Zawadski, Gao, Miller, Wang (Miller and/or Wang - if they will not at JGP). None or one of "non-tops".
    So two or three home-picks will be of "tops", only one may be not of "tops". Two not of "tops" are not very probable because many US Ladies in "top".

    Canada will pick Osmond and Lacoste, both of "tops".
    Third place may be for Junior (Daleman or Seguin not of "tops") or foreign skater if both Daleman and Seguin will be at JGP. Foreign will be most probably of "tops".
    So Canada also will have none or 1 home-picks not of "tops".

    China will pick Zijun Li, Chinese skater not of "tops" (Zijun Li is the only Chinese at "tops") and Chinese or fogeign skater (which may be of "tops").
    So China has 1 or 2 home-picks not of "tops".

    Japan will pick Asada, Suzuki or Murakami (both of "tops") and third Japanese skater of "tops" (Miyahara, Haruka Imai ?) or not of "tops".
    So Japan also will have none or 1 (more probably) home-picks not of "tops".

    France will pick Meite (of "tops"), Gilleron-Gorry (not of "tops"), maybe Silete (if she restores) or foreign (foreign of "tops" most probably).
    France has 1 or 2 home-picks not of "tops".

    Russia will pick Sotnikova or Tuktamysheva and two other Russian skaters.
    One of them may be not of "tops" only if all Russian "tops" have two GP Events (or maybe Russia will give home-pick to Gosviani when Leonova or Korobeynikova has only one GP Event, chance for them to get one more Event by Substitute is high).

    So we see maximum 7 "non-tops" at home-picks (excluding Russia).

    14 guaranteed - 28 spots. 24 Tops on WS and SB - 24 spots.
    Total 52 spots.
    Plus 7 non-tops in home-picks - 59.
    So even in worst case Radionova has 2nd GP Event on results of JrWorlds.
    In practice Pogorilaya also (case hardly will be worst), or home-pick.
    Lipnitskaia has 2 GP Events as "twice top" - on WS and SB, so she does not need GP Enent on JrWorlds result.

  6. #21
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    What about Samantha Cesario? I see nobody said anything about her and she was 4th at JWC, before Hicks, she is amazing and she can't be in juniors anymore, she looks and skates like a senior. I hope she gets a GP because she clearly deserves it.

  7. #22
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    Cesario could get a host pick. That's the only way she could be on the GP.

  8. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by IleK View Post
    What about Samantha Cesario? I see nobody said anything about her and she was 4th at JWC, before Hicks, she is amazing and she can't be in juniors anymore, she looks and skates like a senior. I hope she gets a GP because she clearly deserves it.
    With all the tale ted. US ladies, it's difficult for her to receive a spot immediatly: she could easily be the replacement if someone WD, I think...

  9. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by chuckm View Post
    Cesario could get a host pick. That's the only way she could be on the GP.
    And that's unlikely to happen with Wagner and Gold in the mix.

  10. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by silverlake22 View Post
    ...however, the decision is up to the girls and their coaches.
    Is it? Or is it up to the Russian Federation?

  11. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by chuckm View Post
    Cesario could get a host pick. That's the only way she could be on the GP.
    Wang should get that spot but probably won't

  12. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by IleK View Post
    What about Samantha Cesario? I see nobody said anything about her and she was 4th at JWC, before Hicks, she is amazing and she can't be in juniors anymore, she looks and skates like a senior. I hope she gets a GP because she clearly deserves it.
    She is not in Top-12 of Worlds, Top-24 of WS (only 48th), Top-24 of SB (27th).
    So she is not in groups of which are picked primary GP Entries.

    She may have GP Event (or two - places up to 42 of Season Best had two GP Events of this season) only by home-pick and by SB as a Substitute when somebody withdraws.
    It may be seriously discussed only after initial lists will be available, at June or July 2013.

    Quote Originally Posted by sky_fly20 View Post
    Wang should get that spot but probably won't
    Wang is young enough for JGP, Cesario not.

    As for me, most probably Wang will be at JGP, Cesario at GP (her 27th Season Best gives her good chance even for two GP Events by Substitute).

    Quote Originally Posted by chuckm View Post
    Cesario could get a host pick. That's the only way she could be on the GP.
    Not only host pick. Jenna McCorkel had this season GP Event being 46th at Season Best list, by Season Best.
    Cesario with 27 place can have two GP Events by Season Best.

  13. #28
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    Cesario may be near the top of the SB list, but that is not a guarantee that she would be chosen as a substitute. When there is a withdrawal, the host country is given a list of top 24-list skaters who haven't received two events yet, and a list of the top 5 skaters on the SB list with no GP invitations yet. Mirai Nagasu was a top-24 skater with one GP event and also the top skater on the SB list, but 9 other skaters received substitute events before Mirai was finally chosen to replace Alissa Czisny at NHK just 10 days before that event.

    Many hosts pick substitutes that live or train near the host country, and/or one that might not be such a serious threat to that host's own top ladies. Jenna McCorkell was chosen as a substitute for TEB because she trains in nearby Belgium, and was no threat to Meite.

  14. #29
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    There is six GP events and in each of them there can be max 3 skaters per country, so there is max 18 places for any country.

    As I see it, from Russian ladies 2 spots will go to: Sotnikova, Tuktamysheva, Lipnitskaya, Radionova and possibly (but not for sure) to Pogorilaya. (Last year Lipnitskaya and Shelepen dominated in Juniors and this season they ended up with two spots, so I think the same will be for Radionova and Pogorilaya next season).

    That leaves 8 available spots. The remaining ladies are Leonova, Makarova, Biryukova, Gosviani, Korobeynikova and Agafonova.
    I think Leonova would probably still get two spots based on her past results. The Federation may hope that the last season was an accident and that she will pull herself together before the Olympics.
    Gosviani and Korobeynikova will get for sure at least one spot although the Federation may prefer them to get two spots. (the same way as this season Korobeynikova had two spots based on last years successful Europeans, I would hope that next season it will be the same for Gosviani).

    Makarova, Biryukova, and Agafonova will get maximum one spot, but they may end up without. Agafonova did not qualify for the senior nationals this season, so maybe the Federation will keep her off the submitted list to give better chance to Gosviani and Korobeynikova to have two spots. I can't imagine the Federation giving any more chances to Makarova considering that she had two bad seasons, but she may end up with one. About Biryukova - I don't know. I know she was injured this season, but based on her results she may not get anything, or maximum one.

  15. #30
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    Sure, Russia could get 3 spots in every event, but that's doubtful. Last year, for nine ladies, Russia got 3 spots at SC, CoR and TEB, but 2 at USA, CoC and NHK. This year, only two in the top 12 at Worlds are guaranteed two events. Five ladies are in the top 24 lists: Lipnitskaia, Leonova, Korobeynikova, Radionova and Pogorilaya.

    Makarova, Gosviani and Biryukova are not guaranteed any GP events; Agafonova is not eligible except for a host pick because she has no SB ranking:

    Makarova 28 SB, 26 WR - might get substitute event, if submitted
    Gosviani 32 SB, 71 WR - might get substitute event, if submitted
    Biryukova 61 SB, 91 WR - probably not submitted
    Agafonova no SB, 75 WR - ineligible for invitation

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