GP Speculation-2013-2014: THE LADIES | Page 2 | Golden Skate

GP Speculation-2013-2014: THE LADIES

IleK

On the Ice
Joined
Mar 11, 2012
What about Samantha Cesario? I see nobody said anything about her and she was 4th at JWC, before Hicks, she is amazing and she can't be in juniors anymore, she looks and skates like a senior. I hope she gets a GP because she clearly deserves it.
 

chuckm

Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 31, 2003
Country
United-States
Cesario could get a host pick. That's the only way she could be on the GP.
 

FSGMT

Record Breaker
Joined
Sep 10, 2012
What about Samantha Cesario? I see nobody said anything about her and she was 4th at JWC, before Hicks, she is amazing and she can't be in juniors anymore, she looks and skates like a senior. I hope she gets a GP because she clearly deserves it.
With all the tale ted. US ladies, it's difficult for her to receive a spot immediatly: she could easily be the replacement if someone WD, I think...
 
Joined
Jul 30, 2012
Country
Russia
What about Samantha Cesario? I see nobody said anything about her and she was 4th at JWC, before Hicks, she is amazing and she can't be in juniors anymore, she looks and skates like a senior. I hope she gets a GP because she clearly deserves it.
She is not in Top-12 of Worlds, Top-24 of WS (only 48th), Top-24 of SB (27th).
So she is not in groups of which are picked primary GP Entries.

She may have GP Event (or two - places up to 42 of Season Best had two GP Events of this season) only by home-pick and by SB as a Substitute when somebody withdraws.
It may be seriously discussed only after initial lists will be available, at June or July 2013.

Wang should get that spot but probably won't
Wang is young enough for JGP, Cesario not.

As for me, most probably Wang will be at JGP, Cesario at GP (her 27th Season Best gives her good chance even for two GP Events by Substitute).

Cesario could get a host pick. That's the only way she could be on the GP.
Not only host pick. Jenna McCorkel had this season GP Event being 46th at Season Best list, by Season Best.
Cesario with 27 place can have two GP Events by Season Best.
 

chuckm

Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 31, 2003
Country
United-States
Cesario may be near the top of the SB list, but that is not a guarantee that she would be chosen as a substitute. When there is a withdrawal, the host country is given a list of top 24-list skaters who haven't received two events yet, and a list of the top 5 skaters on the SB list with no GP invitations yet. Mirai Nagasu was a top-24 skater with one GP event and also the top skater on the SB list, but 9 other skaters received substitute events before Mirai was finally chosen to replace Alissa Czisny at NHK just 10 days before that event.

Many hosts pick substitutes that live or train near the host country, and/or one that might not be such a serious threat to that host's own top ladies. Jenna McCorkell was chosen as a substitute for TEB because she trains in nearby Belgium, and was no threat to Meite.
 

hanca

Record Breaker
Joined
Sep 23, 2008
There is six GP events and in each of them there can be max 3 skaters per country, so there is max 18 places for any country.

As I see it, from Russian ladies 2 spots will go to: Sotnikova, Tuktamysheva, Lipnitskaya, Radionova and possibly (but not for sure) to Pogorilaya. (Last year Lipnitskaya and Shelepen dominated in Juniors and this season they ended up with two spots, so I think the same will be for Radionova and Pogorilaya next season).

That leaves 8 available spots. The remaining ladies are Leonova, Makarova, Biryukova, Gosviani, Korobeynikova and Agafonova.
I think Leonova would probably still get two spots based on her past results. The Federation may hope that the last season was an accident and that she will pull herself together before the Olympics.
Gosviani and Korobeynikova will get for sure at least one spot although the Federation may prefer them to get two spots. (the same way as this season Korobeynikova had two spots based on last years successful Europeans, I would hope that next season it will be the same for Gosviani).

Makarova, Biryukova, and Agafonova will get maximum one spot, but they may end up without. Agafonova did not qualify for the senior nationals this season, so maybe the Federation will keep her off the submitted list to give better chance to Gosviani and Korobeynikova to have two spots. I can't imagine the Federation giving any more chances to Makarova considering that she had two bad seasons, but she may end up with one. About Biryukova - I don't know. I know she was injured this season, but based on her results she may not get anything, or maximum one.
 

chuckm

Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 31, 2003
Country
United-States
Sure, Russia could get 3 spots in every event, but that's doubtful. Last year, for nine ladies, Russia got 3 spots at SC, CoR and TEB, but 2 at USA, CoC and NHK. This year, only two in the top 12 at Worlds are guaranteed two events. Five ladies are in the top 24 lists: Lipnitskaia, Leonova, Korobeynikova, Radionova and Pogorilaya.

Makarova, Gosviani and Biryukova are not guaranteed any GP events; Agafonova is not eligible except for a host pick because she has no SB ranking:

Makarova 28 SB, 26 WR - might get substitute event, if submitted
Gosviani 32 SB, 71 WR - might get substitute event, if submitted
Biryukova 61 SB, 91 WR - probably not submitted
Agafonova no SB, 75 WR - ineligible for invitation
 

ForeverFish

Medalist
Joined
Aug 21, 2012
After reading all of these insightful analyses, here are my GP predictions for the Russian ladies:

2 spots: Lipnitskaia, Sotnikova*, Tuktamysheva*, Radionova, Pogorilaya, Leonova
1 spot: Makarova, Gosviani, Korobeynikova
No spots: Biryukova, Agafonova

And for the US ladies:

2 spots: Gold*, Wagner*, Zawadzki, Gao, Nagasu
1 spot: Hicks, Cesario, Wang, Miller, Zhang, Czisny (if she returns)
No spots: Siraj, Cain

* Guaranteed 2 spots due to placement at Worlds
 

hanca

Record Breaker
Joined
Sep 23, 2008
Sure, Russia could get 3 spots in every event, but that's doubtful. Last year, for nine ladies, Russia got 3 spots at SC, CoR and TEB, but 2 at USA, CoC and NHK.

I wasn't saying anything about the spots being guaranteed. I was saying about what the Federation will probably push for. The Federation can influence it up to some extend, for example by not submitting the weaker skaters such as Makarova and Byriukova. Last year the Russian Federation was able to get in total 16 spots (Shelepen got two but withdrew from one because of injury, but she did get two) which meant that eight eligible ladies all got two spots. Based on that I am hoping that Sotnikova, Tuktamysheva, Lipnitskaya, Radionova, Pogorilaya, Leonova, Gosviani and Korobeynikova could with a bit of luck all have two (and then Makarova, Biryukova and Agafonova will be without), or Gosviani and Korobeynikova just one and then Biryukova and Agafonova (or Makarova) may get one too.
 

chuckm

Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 31, 2003
Country
United-States
Leonova, Makarova and Korobeynkova all finished 6th and 7th at their 2012 GP events, and 7th, 8th and 10th, respectively, at 2013 Nationals. Leonova finished the season with 13th place at Worlds with a score 5 points higher than what Gosviani scored at Euros. Gosviani obviously didn't impress the Russian federation with her Euros performance, so they didn't send her to Worlds. Why should any of these ladies be considered for GP assignments by their own federation?

Russia won only 4 medals in the 2012 GP, and they were won by Lipnitskaia, Tuktamysheva and Sotnikova.
 

hanca

Record Breaker
Joined
Sep 23, 2008
Leonova, Makarova and Korobeynkova all finished 6th and 7th at their 2012 GP events, and 7th, 8th and 10th, respectively, at 2013 Nationals. Leonova finished the season with 13th place at Worlds with a score 5 points higher than what Gosviani scored at Euros. Gosviani obviously didn't impress the Russian federation with her Euros performance, so they didn't send her to Worlds. Why should any of these ladies be considered for GP assignments by their own federation?

Russia won only 4 medals in the 2012 GP, and they were won by Lipnitskaia, Tuktamysheva and Sotnikova.

Leonova will because she still has the world standing, so she will get the GP events.

Korobeynikova will get it because last season they secured it for Byriukova, and I think Byriukova was at that time seen weaker than Korobeynikova is now.

Gosviani will get at least one because I think last year the Russian Federation learned last season not to underestimate her, and they want to keep their options open. I think actually Gosviani did impress the Russian federation with her Euros performance. It was unexpected for them.
 
Joined
Jul 30, 2012
Country
Russia
Sure, Russia could get 3 spots in every event, but that's doubtful. Last year, for nine ladies, Russia got 3 spots at SC, CoR and TEB, but 2 at USA, CoC and NHK.
Eight Ladies.
1.Biryukova
2.Korobeynikova
3.Leonova
4.Lipnitskaia
5.Makarova
6.Sotnikova
7.Shelepen
8.Tuktamysheva

This year, only two in the top 12 at Worlds are guaranteed two events.
The same as past season.

Five ladies are in the top 24 lists: Lipnitskaia, Leonova, Korobeynikova, Radionova and Pogorilaya.

Makarova, Gosviani and Biryukova are not guaranteed any GP events; Agafonova is not eligible except for a host pick because she has no SB ranking:

Makarova 28 SB, 26 WR - might get substitute event, if submitted
Gosviani 32 SB, 71 WR - might get substitute event, if submitted
Biryukova 61 SB, 91 WR - probably not submitted
Agafonova no SB, 75 WR - ineligible for invitation
Yes.

Makarova (if she will compete) and/or Gosviani may have two Events by substitute. Or may not.
 
Joined
Jul 30, 2012
Country
Russia
Cesario may be near the top of the SB list, but that is not a guarantee that she would be chosen as a substitute. When there is a withdrawal, the host country is given a list of top 24-list skaters who haven't received two events yet, and a list of the top 5 skaters on the SB list with no GP invitations yet. Mirai Nagasu was a top-24 skater with one GP event and also the top skater on the SB list, but 9 other skaters received substitute events before Mirai was finally chosen to replace Alissa Czisny at NHK just 10 days before that event.
Nagasu replaced Shelepen, not Czisny. Czisny's place was lost (as somebody told - lost not to be for Osmond).
At all, this looked as operation of RusFed, USFS and JFS against SkateCanada.
1. Shelepen (bad results of previous competitions and injury) WD at last moment when substitute is possible.
2. Nagasu has spot.
3. Alissa WD when substitute is impossible.

And as I heard - Nagasu's second place USFS assigned to other skater (and ISU agreed). And only because of this Nagasu had her second GP Event so late.
 
Joined
Jul 30, 2012
Country
Russia
There is six GP events and in each of them there can be max 3 skaters per country, so there is max 18 places for any country.

As I see it, from Russian ladies 2 spots will go to: Sotnikova, Tuktamysheva, Lipnitskaya, Radionova and possibly (but not for sure) to Pogorilaya. (Last year Lipnitskaya and Shelepen dominated in Juniors and this season they ended up with two spots, so I think the same will be for Radionova and Pogorilaya next season).

That leaves 8 available spots. The remaining ladies are Leonova, Makarova, Biryukova, Gosviani, Korobeynikova and Agafonova.
RusFed is interested in Gosviani and Leonova, not Makarova, Biryukova, Korobeynikova and Agafonova.
So most probably Gosviani and Leonova will have GP Events, two for each.
 
Joined
Jul 30, 2012
Country
Russia
And for the US ladies:

2 spots: Gold*, Wagner*, Zawadzki, Gao, Nagasu
1 spot: Hicks, Cesario, Wang, Miller, Zhang, Czisny (if she returns)
No spots: Siraj, Cain

* Guaranteed 2 spots due to placement at Worlds
Yes, it looks most probable.
But some of them (Wang, Miller, less probably Hicks) may be at JGP, not GP.
 

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
Canada won one, Osmomd's gold in SC.
US medaled in 4 out of 6 events and had a total 6 medals. Ashley got gold at SA and TEB, Gracie got silver at CoR, Christina got silver at SA, Agnes bronze at CoR and Mirai at NHK. Including Ash's silver at GPF, that's 7.

Including GPF, US is tied with Japan with the most medals at 7 each, but Us had more skaters medal at 5 vs. 3 (Mao. Akiko and Kanako).
 
Top