What do Ashley or Gracie need to do to Medal in Sochi
I am just wondering is it possible for one of them to medal. I know it won't be easy. I know it means they have to beat either Yuna, Carolina or Mao, the big three. Not to mention some others.
I know everyone says Ashley needs the triple/triple, Gracie needs better choreography. If they both come out next season with what is missing from their programs can that push them past the top three? Are they still at a disadvantage? Are they not good enough? What does it take to medal?
I don't see any US lady figure skaters on the podium unless somebody (the Big Three especially) totally implodes.
iirc in the long program at worlds Ashley had the 4th best PCS and Gracie had the 3 best TES - so both are right there in medal contention with part of their skating. The path seems a little easier to figure out for Ashley - get that TES score up! Every point counts Improved TES would probably help her PCS a bit too.
Pulling up PCS for Gracie is more nebulous...better choreography, better reputation, focus on the transitions. A great performance or two during the GP would seem to help
1. Wagner needs to work hard on a 3-3 of some kind, and a 2 axel-3 toe combination in the summer. Needs to really work on her spins, they werent strong enough this season, especialy her levels. Needs to work on defining her style even further, so she can further up her PCS. Needs to decide if she is satisfied just being safe to go to Sochi and possibly dropping to #2 U.S lady behind Gold, or if she really wants a medal there.
2. Gold needs to get better choreography and more excitement in her skating besides the jumps so her PCS can increase. She has fairly solid basics and a nice line, but she needs better choreography, more interpretation, better performing skills, and more speed. Also needs to really focus on getting a somewhat clean SP done in more competitions, and just consistency and focus in general. Already has all the jumping skills to be among the best, apart from a bit of inconsistency at times.
3. Really hope for one of Mao or Carolina Kostner to make enough mistakes for one to sneak in for a medal even if they make all the above improvements and skate very well. Mao is probably the better bet/hope of the two to do that. Kim is too consistent and strong both to ever make enough mistakes to lose to a U.S girl next year, so forget her.
4. Hope that Murakami, Osmond, Li, Sotnikova, Tuktamysheva, dont make as many improvements as they make, or more, and dont skate great at Sochi themselves.
Wait until 2018. Isn't going to happen in 2014.
Well, for Ash, she can do as BoP said - do the Miki 2011 thing and pack most of your jumps in the 2nd half of the lp
(It worked for Miki as she is a strong lp skater and is prolly the most consistent big triple jumper in history)
But then, Ashley is also a strong lp skater.
Best strategy is a clean 7 triple program (Olympics like "clean" programs- falls, i.e.) but her clean means rotated, no 2-foots, etc. which will be harder.
Putting 4 triples in the 2nd half is not a bad idea.
Do a 2a-3lo instead of 2a-3t
Her 3-3 attempt should be a 3lo-3lo or 3f-3lo, but a 3-3 may not be needed to podium. I can see her in the top 3 in the sp if Caro or Mao makes mistakes- Yuna is well, Yuna, the sp queen.
Do well in the GP- get to the final and podium, same at 4cc.
Gracie should do the same layout as this worlds, but with much better programs. She can do over 130 lp if clean- her TES is strong, so get the PCS up.
One can medal if Mao/Caro meltdown, Yuna is a tougher nut to crack. Luckily, the russians may crack easier.
You just explained why copying Miki's strategy won't work for Ashley.
Originally Posted by guanchi
Miki & Yuna are both very strong jumpers, and they can pull big jumps consistently. It was almost freaky how Yuna didn't get to do the opening 3Lz/3T combo because she didn't have enough speed for the second jump at Nats SP, so she just decided to do 3F/3T instead on the fly. Given that 3F/3T has been missing from her layout since 2010, what she's done basically proved that she's probably one of the best jumpers skating right now.
Ashley is not a very strong and consistent jumper. 2A-3Lo is going to be a disaster as I don't see the second jump getting ratified at all. I don't think she gets enough height or speed to add 3Lo after any of her jumps. Even adding a 3T is a big risk for her.
It is possible one of them could medal but both of them is highly unlikely with Carolina, Yuna and Mao the front runners. Then there is the potential that Suzuki, Murakami, Osmond or one of the two Russian ladies could beat one or both of them or medal. In short, they would have to probably hope that someone gets injured, sick or dies sadly for them both to podium. Even if they improve Skating skills, choreography and jumps it would be tough to think they both would be able to podium. Mao, Carolina, the Russians would al have to have a meltdown at the same time. Besides maybe Alyssa will come back and take the bronze? Or Mirai?
New Choreographers !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
But i still dont see any of them medalling
BTW - I should note -- I see Gracie medaling in 2018. But not Ashley.
That 3f-3t from Yuna at Nats was a sweet trip down memory lane- just going back to muscle memory, retrieving backup, put it on auto, and bam- surprise!
Originally Posted by Nadia01
Ashley needs that kind of speed- she does have speed, but needs better control of it.
Oh yeah. Yuna's 3F/3T is still as beautiful as ever.
Originally Posted by guanchi
Ashley needs not just control but confidence and height as well. Whenever she jumps, I feel like she's going to either UR or double-foot. Her jumps look not secure and big enough for a 2-time US champion.
Ashley doesn't have Yuna-level height on her jumps, but it's not like they're barely getting off the ground. I actually think she's improved quite a bit in the two-foot + on the height of the jumps. She's actually gotten some solid +GOE on her jumps this season.
She does revert back to old habits when trying to do the 3-3 2A/3T, but I think it's because she didn't really get them out of competition soon enough. She seems pretty intent on getting them out earlier next season, so I hope the improvements we've seen with her jumps will continue on the difficult combinations.
I think the last thing Gracie needs is more speed. She's one of the fastest skaters out there as it is.
Originally Posted by pangtongfan
Originally Posted by Jammers
Gracie has really good speed and power and her SS are fine, she needs better choreography and refinement though (which will come with time, but I'm not too sure she'll manage that until next year already).
And I don't get why people think Ashley is so fast? It's not as if she was creeping over the ice, but she's not having really good speed either. That said, the most important thing will be the 3-3 + 2A-3T, but I'm not too sure she'll get them. She didn't even attempt the 3-3 the whole season. Playing it safe this season might not have been the best idea. Additionally, while her movements are controlled and elegent, she looks pretty wooden and stiff to me. Working on that might improve her PCS.
Anyway, I really hope the podium in Sochi will consist of Yuna, Mao and Carolina. Bacause if it doesn't, it means at least one of those three messed up pretty badly, and I don't want that to happen. I want everyone to deliver good performances and see an amazing event