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Thread: What do Ashley or Gracie need to do to Medal in Sochi

  1. #31
    Custom Title Nadia01's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    I I wont even discuss Kim who would have to have an outing like the 2011 Worlds or worse to come close to losing to a current U.S girl, no matter how well any of them skate.
    I agree she did poorly (?) in 2011, but so what? She still got the WC silver, when she didn't even want to be at the comp in the 1st place. How many ladies can just waltz into the Worlds w/o having competed even once all season long AND not wanting to be there but still skate away w/ a nice hardware around their neck?

    I actually think that Yuna would have to skate even worse than the 2011 WC in order for a US girl to beat her in Sochi. I'd say Yuna has about a 3-4 fall margin on any US girls, sadly. And I just don't see Yuna making that many errors, unless she's injured, her skate blade implodes in the middle of the program or something.

  2. #32
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    Worlds this year turned pretty much as conventional wisdom predicted for the Ladies, but that seems to be more the aberation then the rule. Also Kostner and Asada both showed moments of weakness. A season is a long time. Ashley went from the 'almost girl' to US #1 in a season. I'm not saying it's likely for any US woman to medal at Olys, just not that impossible. Just ask Daisuke, Hanyu and Denis about expectations and reality when it comes to medals.

  3. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nadia01 View Post
    I agree she did poorly (?) in 2011, but so what? She still got the WC silver, when she didn't even want to be at the comp in the 1st place. How many ladies can just waltz into the Worlds w/o having competed even once all season long AND not wanting to be there but still skate away w/ a nice hardware around their neck?

    I actually think that Yuna would have to skate even worse than the 2011 WC in order for a US girl to beat her in Sochi. I'd say Yuna has about a 3-4 fall margin on any US girls, sadly. And I just don't see Yuna making that many errors, unless she's injured, her skate blade implodes in the middle of the program or something.
    I wasnt begruding Kim her showing at the 2011 Worlds, where despite making 3 errors to only 1 error for Miki Ando, and also omiting her planned triple-triple in the short program, I and many others other feel she was robbed of winning. To skate as she did there when she arguably was pushed into even being there was remarkable in hindsight, regardless of her placement. My point was only that she would have to drop to that level of skating at the Games (virtually impossible as she now seems motivated, healthy, and hungry, and even her worst days do not reach that level when she is motivated, hungry, and healthy) for a U.S girl to hope to beat her given the level they are at now (and even factoring in the highest realistic improvement in just a year). Yes you are probably right she would have to skate even worse to lose to them as things stand now, but I was factoring in the chance of improvement, especialy for the younger Gold.

    The way I see it now is Kim is on one side of the cliff, Kostner and Asada together make a bridge, and there are about 7 ladies including both top 2 U.S ladies on the other side of the cliff. The bridge (Kostner and Asada) is possibly in reach with a giant stretch from the 7 lady side of the cliff, and the other side of the cliff (Kim) is possibly in reach with a giant stretch from the bridge (Kostner and Asada). However the 7 lady side of the cliff cannot possibly hope to reach all the way to the other side of the cliff entirely no matter how hard they stretch. Aka there is an outside chance for Kostner or Asada to beat Kim in Sochi for the gold, and there is an outside chance for Gold, Murakami, Wagner (much less likely as she probably doesnt have the capacity for improvement someone like Gold does at this point), or a Russian (with help of home ice factor) to beat Kostner and/or Kim for a podium spot, but IMHO there is no chance for someone like Gold, Wagner, Sotnikova, or Tuktamysheva to beat Kim in Sochi.

    Frankly though if the top 3 dont end up not only the same podium but the exact same order as this years Worlds I will be slightly amazed. Kostner slipping behind Asada is most likely, but even that is quite unlikely IMO. Kostner would need to skate perfectly to hope to beat Kim, and I dont think she has that in her, especialy at an event like the Olympics. Asada gives too much in GOE and PCS to Kostner at this point, and her current jump layout and almost impossible for her to execute without errors as well, and Kostner tends to be better at limiting her mistakes these days. Asada was beating everyone all season until Kim and Kostner came back even with only 3 clean triples and not trying the tough stuff yet. So you get the picture.

  4. #34
    Custom Title Nadia01's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    I wasnt begruding Kim her showing at the 2011 Worlds, where despite making 3 errors to only 1 error for Miki Ando, and also omiting her planned triple-triple in the short program, I and many others other feel she was robbed of winning. To skate as she did there when she arguably was pushed into even being there was remarkable in hindsight, regardless of her placement. My point was only that she would have to drop to that level of skating at the Games (virtually impossible as she now seems motivated, healthy, and hungry, and even her worst days do not reach that level when she is motivated, hungry, and healthy) for a U.S girl to hope to beat her given the level they are at now (and even factoring in the highest realistic improvement in just a year). Yes you are probably right she would have to skate even worse to lose to them as things stand now, but I was factoring in the chance of improvement, especialy for the younger Gold.

    The way I see it now is Kim is on one side of the cliff, Kostner and Asada together make a bridge, and there are about 7 ladies including both top 2 U.S ladies on the other side of the cliff. The bridge (Kostner and Asada) is possibly in reach with a giant stretch from the 7 lady side of the cliff, and the other side of the cliff (Kim) is possibly in reach with a giant stretch from the bridge (Kostner and Asada). However the 7 lady side of the cliff cannot possibly hope to reach all the way to the other side of the cliff entirely no matter how hard they stretch. Aka there is an outside chance for Kostner or Asada to beat Kim in Sochi for the gold, and there is an outside chance for Gold, Murakami, Wagner (much less likely as she probably doesnt have the capacity for improvement someone like Gold does at this point), or a Russian (with help of home ice factor) to beat Kostner and/or Kim for a podium spot, but IMHO there is no chance for someone like Gold, Wagner, Sotnikova, or Tuktamysheva to beat Kim in Sochi.

    Frankly though if the top 3 dont end up not only the same podium but the exact same order as this years Worlds I will be slightly amazed. Kostner slipping behind Asada is most likely, but even that is quite unlikely IMO. Kostner would need to skate perfectly to hope to beat Kim, and I dont think she has that in her, especialy at an event like the Olympics. Asada gives too much in GOE and PCS to Kostner at this point, and her current jump layout and almost impossible for her to execute without errors as well, and Kostner tends to be better at limiting her mistakes these days. Asada was beating everyone all season until Kim and Kostner came back even with only 3 clean triples and not trying the tough stuff yet. So you get the picture.
    Oh so sorry. I wasn't attacking you or anything. I just thought Kim's 2011 showing being what it was -- the only season where she didn't even bother to really try as she was being pushed into competing that season -- and still good enough for silver (with some thinking she should've won the comp altogether), I just didn't think Wagner & Gold and whoever ends up being the US #3 would beat Kim when she actually tries to do her best. I think Kim's 2011 is good enough to beat Wagner & Gold's 2013 WC.

    When Yuna announced her comeback, she spoke of 유종의 미, which roughly translates to the beautiful ending or high note. Given how careful she is about setting expectations (the Korean media is absolutely psychotic when it comes to her), she wouldn't have used that word if she didn't plan to defend her title with everything she's got.

  5. #35
    Wicked Yankee Girl dorispulaski's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nadia01 View Post
    I'm not sure what this has anything to do with what Gracie needs to do to win an Olympic medal? As I recall, neither CaroK nor Yuna Kim (as we can all agree, they're both well-known for their speed and big jumps) crashed into the boards. It's part of being able to control your speed and power to ensure that such things do not happen. And it's not like the size of the rink in London was a top secret. Gracie and Max could've adjusted their training to get used to the smaller rink.
    It was the first World's for both skaters, and both have limited experience on any international event, especially at the Senior level.

    Both made the mistakes of inexperience. Having the practice rink be Olympic size while the competition rink was a bit small even for a hockey rink can't have helped, either.

  6. #36
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    I think that only one of US ladies has a possibility to stand on the Olympic podium. That lady definetely needs a triple-triple combination (preferably triple lutz-triple toe) plus a very smart CoP choreography.

  7. #37
    At the rink. Again. mskater93's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Skater Boy View Post
    Not sure Gracie is that fast. But anyways...I did think London World's seem to be more budget conscious but maybe it is just me.
    She is VERY fast compared to most ladies. Yuna and Carolina are faster for sure, but not many others if any.

  8. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    The way I see it now is Kim is on one side of the cliff, Kostner and Asada together make a bridge, and there are about 7 ladies including both top 2 U.S ladies on the other side of the cliff. The bridge (Kostner and Asada) is possibly in reach with a giant stretch from the 7 lady side of the cliff, and the other side of the cliff (Kim) is possibly in reach with a giant stretch from the bridge (Kostner and Asada). However the 7 lady side of the cliff cannot possibly hope to reach all the way to the other side of the cliff entirely no matter how hard they stretch.
    By far the most creative metaphor I've seen in this kind of discussion.

    I agree that it's just really tough to imagine that the US girls, who didn't medal at the most important Worlds before the Olympics (and don't have any world medals at all), medaling at the Olympics next year no matter how much they improve and how the competition goes. I really like Gracie--great presence on the ice, great jumps and spins--but she desperately needs better choreography to get higher PCS. Even if she gets it next season, I don't see her making the big enough artistic transformation to get higher PCS in time for the Olympics. However, she is gaining valuable experience competing on this level, and a strong showing throughout next season and at the Olympics can set her up very nicely throughout the following quad.

  9. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by mskater93 View Post
    She is VERY fast compared to most ladies. Yuna and Carolina are faster for sure, but not many others if any.
    I've seen her live. I don't think she was the fastest of the US girls.
    Even Ashley is faster than Gracie.

    She has above average speed. Maybe at 75 percentile. Her speed wouldn't be the thing that hold her down. But "VERY fast" is just wrong.

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    Quote Originally Posted by FlattFan View Post
    I've seen her live. I don't think she was the fastest of the US girls.
    Even Ashley is faster than Gracie.

    She has above average speed. Maybe at 75 percentile. Her speed wouldn't be the thing that hold her down. But "VERY fast" is just wrong.
    I havent seen Gold skate live yet but live does look alot different than on TV (I know that from the many skaters I have seen live) so I am always interested to hear the views of Gold's speed from people who have seen her live.

  11. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by dorispulaski View Post
    It was the first World's for both skaters, and both have limited experience on any international event, especially at the Senior level.

    Both made the mistakes of inexperience. Having the practice rink be Olympic size while the competition rink was a bit small even for a hockey rink can't have helped, either.
    I thought the size of the rink was an odd thing. I don't know what other amenities and advantages London may have, as I have never visited. But it seems to me that the competition arena would be a major consideration when selecting the host for a WC. As I said, I've never been to London, but I wonder why they didn't use the Olympic rink for the actual competition.

    Edit: I thought the size negated some power and speed advantages of some of the skaters, particularly the ice dancers. I thought both D/W and V/M got really close to the boards on occasion, and I would suspect they both had to throttle down the speed a little to adjust to the smaller rink. Does anyone know more about how skaters adjust to smaller facilities?

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    Quote Originally Posted by TontoK View Post
    ...but I wonder why they didn't use the Olympic rink for the actual competition.
    Western Fair Sports arena (Worlds 2013 practice rink) ... 3 NHL rinks, 1 Olympic rink. Seating at Olympic rink = 1500.


    ETA: In North America rinks make significant money from Hockey, not so much from Figure Skating. With North American Hockey, the NHL is everything. Smaller leagues want to play on the same size rink the NHL uses. Playing on larger rinks will change the dynamics of the game.

    Most North American rink with large seating capacity will likely be NHL size. Why would they build a large capacity Olympic rink which will probably be rejected for use by the various Hockey leagues?

    At the Hershey Centre in Mississauga (Nationals and SCI 2011), there was one high capacity main rink, with three smaller capacity rinks. (I'm guessing perhaps 150-200 seats per rink). All rinks were NHL size.

    Obtaining access to a high capacity Olympic rink in North America would likely be very limited.

  13. #43
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    Ashley could do it if she skates two SOHLs. She does need some luck because Mao and/or Carolina will have to bomb though...

    For now Gracie is too stiff and boring. She needs considerable improvement in her presentation if she wants to medal even in 2018. Forget 2014.

  14. #44
    Wicked Yankee Girl dorispulaski's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TontoK View Post
    I thought the size of the rink was an odd thing. I don't know what other amenities and advantages London may have, as I have never visited. But it seems to me that the competition arena would be a major consideration when selecting the host for a WC. As I said, I've never been to London, but I wonder why they didn't use the Olympic rink for the actual competition.

    Edit: I thought the size negated some power and speed advantages of some of the skaters, particularly the ice dancers. I thought both D/W and V/M got really close to the boards on occasion, and I would suspect they both had to throttle down the speed a little to adjust to the smaller rink. Does anyone know more about how skaters adjust to smaller facilities?
    You can see how this worked with D&W's Yankee Polka at SkAm. They dialed back the speed to fit the pattern into the rink because the corners of the Kent, WA rink are very odd, even for a hockey rink.

    One must always keep in mind that hockey rinks are not standard sized at all.

  15. #45
    Custom Title macy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by FSGMT View Post
    That's an incredibly difficult combo, Ashley wouldn't be able to land it (she isn't even able to rotate the 3T as the second jump!)... The only time I remember someone attempting it was RF at 2011 4CC, but it was UR... Do you know any girl landing a clean 2A+3Lo??
    ashley actually used to be able to land 3F+3L http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Us6YwQQ0LD0
    that one is shaky and URed but if i remember the one at 08 nats was way better. and she used to do double loop combos rather than toes on the end.

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