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Thread: What do Ashley or Gracie need to do to Medal in Sochi

  1. #76
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    I think Gracie is looking towards 2018 as her time. She seems to have a good head on her shoulders and realistic expectations even if her fans don't.

  2. #77
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    Ashley obviously needs to do a 3-3 combination. If not, she's toast. So, seeing how she can't even land a 2A-3T, she's toast. As for Gracie...um how about choosing music that is dramatic and soaring and having some choreography that is complicated and edgy? Her Life is Beautiful program has the necessary jumping passes but it fails as a thematically mature program in all sorts of ways.

  3. #78
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    I think Ashley should start by going for the 3-3 in the short and 2A-3T in the long at WTT. Just commit to doing it. It's a relatively low-pressure competition, so she really has nothing to lose, and it's a good chance to start getting more mileage on those combinations.

    This year for Ashley was all about maintaining and getting more confidence in her skating. She played it safe early in the season to build confidence, and I don't think that was a bad thing. The problem was, she couldn't build on it and get stronger later on due to the hip pointer, food poisoning, etc. The Ashley we saw at the end of the season was not the same Ashley we saw in the fall. She can skate much better than she did at Worlds. Now, can she skate well enough to beat Yuna, Carolina, and Mao when they're in top shape? That's obviously a very tall order. I don't know. But she does have a shot, a chance, at breaking into the medals in Sochi if all the stars come in alignment. There's no reason to think she's done or over. I for one liked Ashley's programs this year, especially the LP. I don't think her choreography is a serious issue. But I do agree with the poster who said that Ashley needs to skate with more freedom. Right now, you can tell she's just concentrating so intensely on every element. It detracts a little from the flow and mood. Also, work on the speed of her spins, they could be a little faster.

    As to Gracie, I agree with everyone she needs much better programs and choreography next year. I think she also needs steady and consistent coaching in how to perform the program--just little details like hitting the right accents in the music, holding her arms/head at the correct angle, understanding the phrasing of the music--that kind of thing. My worry is, I don't know if her coach is good at this. If he's mainly a technical coach, he may not be very helpful. She may need to pull in other coaches. I think she spent time before Worlds training in Detroit with Zoueva, and I definitely noticed an improvement in her performance at Worlds. In her Worlds LP, I felt for the first time that she was catching some of the buoyant, whimsical character of the music. Selecting the right music for next year is going to be very, very important. It's tricky. She is too young to interpret anything too dramatic or complex. But I also don't see her doing anything soft or girly (like Kanako's short). I hope she can find just the right thing. Gracie, like Ashley, does have an outside chance at medaling this year. Much will depend on her packaging and progress over the summer.

  4. #79
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    Quote Originally Posted by eyria View Post
    In her Worlds LP, I felt for the first time that she was catching some of the buoyant, whimsical character of the music. Selecting the right music for next year is going to be very, very important. It's tricky. She is too young to interpret anything too dramatic or complex. But I also don't see her doing anything soft or girly (like Kanako's short). I hope she can find just the right thing. Gracie, like Ashley, does have an outside chance at medaling this year. Much will depend on her packaging and progress over the summer.
    I noticed an improvement too, but I definitely think she could be more womanly next year. Remember, next year she will be older than Lyra Angelica Michelle, so the age isn't as much of an issue as being able to convey a more mature presence. Since she can already do a 3 triple SP and a 7 triple LP she can really focus on improving her artistry and just maintaining her already great jumps.

  5. #80
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    Quote Originally Posted by flying camel View Post
    What does it take to medal?
    Mao and Carolina will have to bomb. Yuna will never bomb, so you can just forget about that idea.

  6. #81
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    I don't think Carolina will bomb, either. She popped one jump and fell on another, and still scored over 130. Mao is more vulnerable than Carolina and YuNa because she has UR issues. If ladies gets a stringent caller, Mao may drop off the podium.

    Personally, I would like to see Kostner on the podium. Next year will be her 12th season in the senior ranks. She's come back from injury and adversity and is an inspiration to the other skaters.

  7. #82
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    Is Kaetlyn's LP BV higher than Ashley? I knew the Russians and Gold's were, and Li's based on her Worlds LP, but I had no idea Osmond had a higher BV. If so that is further bad news for her as Osmond can easily match her on GOE and PCS as well, so once she gets more experience she will likely start regularly beating Wagner if she doesnt up her game as well.
    No. Kaetlyn has a 6 triple lp. She doesn't have hard 3+3. Osmond's technical content is not all that impressive but Canadian style hype on steroid has inflated the impression of even die-hard fans. Good work, Skate Canada.

  8. #83
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    Quote Originally Posted by chuckm View Post
    I don't think Carolina will bomb, either. She popped one jump and fell on another, and still scored over 130. Mao is more vulnerable than Carolina and YuNa because she has UR issues. If ladies gets a stringent caller, Mao may drop off the podium.

    Personally, I would like to see Kostner on the podium. Next year will be her 12th season in the senior ranks. She's come back from injury and adversity and is an inspiration to the other skaters.
    Mao will undoubtedly be pulling out the 3A if she wants a shot at beating Yuna in her second go-round, which means an increased likelihood of UR calls. She's the only one of the big three whose podium spot is in imminent danger--if she falters, then several ladies would have realistic shots at winning bronze. Ashley Wagner with a 3-3, Kanako Murakami sans URs, and a healthy Kiira Korpi come to mind immediately.

    ITA about Carolina. She's come too far in these last two seasons to drop the ball at the Olympics, and she's shown that she can place ahead of Mao even with serious errors. Only a 2010-style meltdown can keep her from the podium.

  9. #84
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    Is Kaetlyn's LP BV higher than Ashley? I knew the Russians and Gold's were, and Li's based on her Worlds LP, but I had no idea Osmond had a higher BV. If so that is further bad news for her as Osmond can easily match her on GOE and PCS as well, so once she gets more experience she will likely start regularly beating Wagner if she doesnt up her game as well.
    No---Ashley's Base Value was 56.63 and her TES 61.34. Kaetlyn's BV was 54.21 and her TES 53.49.

    Ashley's planned jump layout: two 3Fs, a 3flutz, two 3Lo, a 3S and a 3T for a total of 7 triples; she landed 6 (2a+3t<)
    Kaetlyn's planned jump layout: two 3Fs, a 3flutz, a 3S and two 3T for a total of 6 triples; she landed 4 (falls on 3F and 3T).

    Since she only plans 6 triples and most of the top skaters plan 7, Kaetlyn needs to land ALL her triples to be competitive. She did that just once this season, at Challenge, but never in international competition.

  10. #85
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    I think 2013 World is very much like 2009 World.

    2009, Kim Rochette Ando (with Mao in 4th) -> Kim Mao Rochette Surprise Ando
    2013, Kim Kostner Mao (with Murakami in 4th) -> Kim Mao Kostner Surprise Murakami

    Mao is slightly more vulnerable than Kostner, but Kostner always makes a few mistakes in her LP. I think Mao will get ahead of Kostner just in time for the Olympics if Kostner does what she normally does. Mao got herself together by 4CC just a month before the Olympics. She can do it again.

    Kim needs to worry about programs, actually. If she picks terrible programs, her PCS will be less than Kostner's. The judges have no problem putting her down now.
    Kostner needs to skate clean.
    Mao needs to clean up her technique even more.

    Kim has the easiest path to Gold.
    Mao has the hardest path to Gold, but I don't think she has less chance at silver than Kostner.

  11. #86
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    Quote Originally Posted by FlattFan View Post
    I think 2013 World is very much like 2009 World.

    2009, Kim Rochette Ando (with Mao in 4th) -> Kim Mao Rochette Surprise Ando
    2013, Kim Kostner Mao (with Murakami in 4th) -> Kim Mao Kostner Surprise Murakami

    Mao is slightly more vulnerable than Kostner, but Kostner always makes a few mistakes in her LP. I think Mao will get ahead of Kostner just in time for the Olympics if Kostner does what she normally does. Mao got herself together by 4CC just a month before the Olympics. She can do it again.

    Kim needs to worry about programs, actually. If she picks terrible programs, her PCS will be less than Kostner's. The judges have no problem putting her down now.
    [...]
    Huh? PCS has little to do with the actual program really, both in theory and in practice. Miki Ando's LP in 2011 got Kim-like PCS at Worlds 2011 despite the Morozombie choreography. Yuna's PCS hardly ever reflected the quality of her choreography, since PCS is more about reputation, consistency and/or momentum. Judges put skaters in a PCS bracket and tend to keep them there based on performance/execution. They stay in that range unless they have a meltdown. They move up a bracket when they're "promoted" based on results, improvements, politicking, etc. That's the reality. Even in theory, PCS is only directly affected by the program via the two out of the five components: transitions and choreography/composition. The rest have little/nothing to do with the program.

  12. #87
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    I agree that of the top 3 Mao is the one most vurnerable to dropping off the podium. The technical content she is currently trying to pack in is almost unrealistic for her to ever perform all cleanly, so on a good day she is making a couple of mistakes atleast, and on a less good day she can lose alot of additional points on UR calls or two foots, etc.... Even with easier jumping layouts at times she has not done a clean LP in many years now as well. A clean short with the jumps she is currently trying would pretty much ensure her a medal of some color, but if she doesnt do a clean short, and doesnt do a solid long, she is the most vurnerable by far.

  13. #88
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    Quote Originally Posted by FlattFan View Post
    Kim has the easiest path to Gold.
    Mao has the hardest path to Gold, but I don't think she has less chance at silver than Kostner.
    The main question in the context of this thread though is who would be the most vurnerable to dropping below bronze and right off the podium. Of the three that would definitely be Mao IMO. Kim has never missed a podium here whole Senior career, and it isnt going to happen next year either. Even on her worst day she is too consistent to make enough mistakes to lose to anyone outside of Kostner or Asada. Her odds of a medal of some color are 100%. Kostner hasnt missed a podium since the 2010 Worlds, never has meltdowns anymore, and is also unlikely to make enough mistakes to lose to anyone outside of Kim or Asada. Her odds to be on the podium in some spot in Sochi are probably atleast 80%. Mao is the only one of those three who can quite conceivably make enough mistakes, and also doesnt get the same GOE and PCS cushion relative to Kim and Kostner to compensate when she makes too many mistakes, that could open for the day for one of the challengers who might improve enough over the next year (eg- Gold) to possibly capatilize on. Her odds of getting silver vs Kostner could be debated (or what exactly her odds of getting gold are at this point), but she is the one with the higher odds of the two (or top three) to not medal, even though obviously still much more favored than anyone else.

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    Kim's skating is simply sublime, so I don't get the idea that the judges are anxious to mark her down. She is smooth, fast and she makes it look so easy. That she beat Kostner and Mao by nearly 20 points says the judges consider Kim out of their league. And she is.

  15. #90
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    Quote Originally Posted by chuckm View Post
    Kim's skating is simply sublime, so I don't get the idea that the judges are anxious to mark her down. She is smooth, fast and she makes it look so easy. That she beat Kostner and Mao by nearly 20 points says the judges consider Kim out of their league. And she is.
    It isn't so much that judges are anxious to mark her down in the PCS. That's a big ROTFLMAO considering they gave her even higher PCS than in Vancouver and dropped a few 10's in her LP despite what FlattFan thinks is a "terrible" program. It's that Carolina's PCS have been inching up in recent years and is now in the lower end of Yuna's PCS range.

    Carolina came to these Worlds as the reigning/defending World Champ. Also, the judges haven't seen Yuna in years, she was skating early and her short program wasn't very accessible, so in her SP they gave her about the same PCS as Carolina. Things changed after the LP, though. I'm pretty sure Yuna's rep points are bigger than ever and so I don't see the judges having "no problem putting her down."

    Seriously, she's getting the same/higher PCS as what she got during her 2009-2010 season, and that's a sign of being "put down"?!

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