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Thread: What do Ashley or Gracie need to do to Medal in Sochi

  1. #91
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    Carolina was definitely competitive with Kim on PCS this year, but with Kim regaining her World title in dominant fashion we will have to see if that is the case next year. I suspect not, they might be close, but very unlikely they will be ahead again anytime soon. Thing is regardless of various opinions on the relative quality of overall skating and programs, PCS is as much about momentum, being top ranked, being favored as anything else. That is true in all 4 disciplines for that matter.

  2. #92
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    Quote Originally Posted by FlattFan View Post
    Mao is slightly more vulnerable than Kostner, but Kostner always makes a few mistakes in her LP. I think Mao will get ahead of Kostner just in time for the Olympics if Kostner does what she normally does. Mao got herself together by 4CC just a month before the Olympics. She can do it again.
    Exactly. I don't see Mao as being much more vulnerable than Kostner. There's still some time before Sochi, if there is a possibility others could improve, there is a possibility she could improve more as well.

  3. #93
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    Carolina was definitely competitive with Kim on PCS this year, but with Kim regaining her World title in dominant fashion we will have to see if that is the case next year. I suspect not, they might be close, but very unlikely they will be ahead again anytime soon. Thing is regardless of various opinions on the relative quality of overall skating and programs, PCS is as much about momentum, being top ranked, being favored as anything else. That is true in all 4 disciplines for that matter.
    I think they'll continue to be very close, regardless of anyone's opinion on their respective programs. The judges have always favored Carolina above all other ladies and I don't expect that to change now. Yuna has had to fight for her PCS and throw down dominant wins, world records and clean skates to get them. Carolina just gets them even when she zambonies the whole rink.

  4. #94
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    The judges have always loved Carolina, but I feel like she now at least skates well enough to deserve the marks she gets. She used to be bad about telegraphing her flip jump, skating in a straight line down the rink with her arms by her side. She is also more engaging as a performer now. To me she is equal to Yuna on the artistic side, and I like that because they both bring different things to skating. I think Yuna was scored too low in the SP because she skated early, and perhaps too high in the LP because she skated beautifully after all the favorites completed their programs. If Carolina and Yuna both skate clean their marks will be very very close and things like skate order might make the difference. (Although we have yet to see Carolina nail a program like Yuna has at this years Worlds)

  5. #95
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    Quote Originally Posted by Krislite View Post
    I think they'll continue to be very close, regardless of anyone's opinion on their respective programs. The judges have always favored Carolina above all other ladies and I don't expect that to change now. Yuna has had to fight for her PCS and throw down dominant wins, world records and clean skates to get them. Carolina just gets them even when she zambonies the whole rink.
    Oh please. Yuna got generous PCS ALL the time.
    2008 GPF SP, she was a mess, but got higher PCS than a clean Mao.
    http://www.isuresults.com/results/gp..._SP_Scores.pdf
    30.44 vs. 29.68

    2010 World SP.
    http://www.isuresults.com/results/wc..._SP_Scores.pdf
    Second highest PCS for a really crappy SP, several mistakes.

    2010 World LP.
    http://www.isuresults.com/results/wc..._FS_Scores.pdf
    Highest PCS, 3 points higher than a clean Mao.

    2011 World SP
    http://www.isuresults.com/results/wc..._SP_Scores.pdf
    Highest PCS for a messy program without the 3x3, which is her trump card.

    2011 World LP.
    http://www.isuresults.com/results/wc..._FS_Scores.pdf
    Again, highest PCS for another messy program.

    Don't get it twisted. Yuna is queen of PCS, more often than anyone else. She doesn't make many mistakes, so you don't see her PCS saving her often. But they do when she made mistakes.

  6. #96
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    Quote Originally Posted by FlattFan View Post
    Oh please. Yuna got generous PCS ALL the time.
    [...]
    Don't get it twisted. Yuna is queen of PCS, more often than anyone else. She doesn't make many mistakes, so you don't see her PCS saving her often. But they do when she made mistakes.
    I don't dispute she gets the highest PCS. I'm saying relative to what a skater actually delivers in competition, she's nowhere near as generously scored as Carolina. Before the 2010-2011 season Carolina was a frequent headcase and had numerous meltdowns, but you'd never know it by her PCS.

  7. #97
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    No need to fight... I think both Yuna and Carolina have received high PCSs over their competitors for good reasons.

  8. #98
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    Quote Originally Posted by Moment View Post
    No need to fight... I think both Yuna and Carolina have received high PCSs over their competitors for good reasons.
    We're not fighting. We just butt heads often.

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    Quote Originally Posted by FlattFan View Post
    Oh please. Yuna got generous PCS ALL the time.

    ...

    Don't get it twisted. Yuna is queen of PCS, more often than anyone else. She doesn't make many mistakes, so you don't see her PCS saving her often. But they do when she made mistakes.
    Who's twisting the facts here? If she doesn't make many mistakes, then she's not saved by PCS. Therefore she's earning her PCS, therefore you're wrong in that she gets "generous PCS ALL THE TIME." Has she gotten generous PCS when she made mistakes? Sure, like every elite skater with a reputation. But as many times as Carolina Kostner has throughout her entire career? Heck no! Don't make me list all the competitions where Carolina Kostner has gotten disproportionately high PCS for a messy program and how it actually made a significant difference in the overall placement. Whatever PCS Yu-Na has gotten, it didn't boost her past other skaters (i.e. she lost to Mao at the 2008 GPF, 2010 Worlds; lost to Miki at the 2011 Worlds). There's a huge difference.

    Btw, a pop or a single step out does not make a messy program. Only 2010 Worlds qualifies as a mess for Yu-Na, the other three performances that you list either had a pop or a step-out (two pops at 2011 Worlds FS)--not a mess. If that's a mess, then you must concede that Carolina Kostner's performances at 2013 Worlds (two falls, one pop) or many other performances were messy or worse.

  10. #100
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    Quote Originally Posted by jaylee View Post
    Who's twisting the facts here? If she doesn't make many mistakes, then she's not saved by PCS. Therefore she's earning her PCS, therefore you're wrong in that she gets "generous PCS ALL THE TIME." Has she gotten generous PCS when she made mistakes? Sure, like every elite skater with a reputation. But as many times as Carolina Kostner has throughout her entire career? Heck no! Don't make me list all the competitions where Carolina Kostner has gotten disproportionately high PCS for a messy program and how it actually made a significant difference in the overall placement. Whatever PCS Yu-Na has gotten, it didn't boost her past other skaters (i.e. she lost to Mao at the 2008 GPF, 2010 Worlds; lost to Miki at the 2011 Worlds). There's a huge difference.

    Btw, a pop or a single step out does not make a messy program. Only 2010 Worlds qualifies as a mess for Yu-Na, the other three performances that you list either had a pop or a step-out (two pops at 2011 Worlds FS)--not a mess. If that's a mess, then you must concede that Carolina Kostner's performances at 2013 Worlds (two falls, one pop) or many other performances were messy or worse.
    1. Yuna is more consistent. So you don't see her doing terrible messy programs all the time. When she did, she got generous PCS. If you did 5 messy programs, and got generous 5 times. THAT IS ALL THE TIME. 100% of the times.
    2. Caro is inconsistent. Her PCS have dropped to 7th or 8th the competition. Not nearly as outrageous as Kim's.
    3. The fallacy that Yuna fans have used ALL the time over the year that PCS made a significant difference is so stupid that you discredited it in the same breathe. Whatever PCS Carolina has gotten, it didn't boost her past Irina in 2005, Mao in 2008. There's no difference. Idiots fall for that fallacy all the time. Thanks for agreeing with me.
    4. Yes, I've said Caro was messy at 2013 Worlds. No one is saying otherwise.

  11. #101
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    Quote Originally Posted by Krislite View Post
    I don't dispute she gets the highest PCS. I'm saying relative to what a skater actually delivers in competition, she's nowhere near as generously scored as Carolina. Before the 2010-2011 season Carolina was a frequent headcase and had numerous meltdowns, but you'd never know it by her PCS.
    Her PCS was 5th in the SP, and 10th in the LP at the Olympics. She was 2 points less than Rachael, ok.
    Btw, Kim was at mess at 2009 Skate America, and her PCS beat Rachael by how many points? 6.
    The only one truly saved by PCS is Kim.
    Again, don't get it twisted.

  12. #102
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    Ok let's get this topic of conversation back on track. So basically we all agree Ashley probably won't medal unless the women who are more talented than her totally blow it. As for Gracie...eh, maybe if she stops with the immature princess routine stuff she has a chance. Otherwise, she'll have to wait until she actually matures and knows how to interpret her music.

  13. #103
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    Quote Originally Posted by FlattFan View Post
    Her PCS was 5th in the SP, and 10th in the LP at the Olympics. She was 2 points less than Rachael, ok.
    Btw, Kim was at mess at 2009 Skate America, and her PCS beat Rachael by how many points? 6.
    The only one truly saved by PCS is Kim.
    Again, don't get it twisted.
    Oh please. There's so much self-delusion in this statement that I'm not even going to argue. Kim was rarely saved by PCS compared to Carolina. Carolina got so many undeserved higher placement because of her PCS that no one but your highness would dispute.

  14. #104
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    Quote Originally Posted by bump View Post
    Ok let's get this topic of conversation back on track. So basically we all agree Ashley probably won't medal unless the women who are more talented than her totally blow it. As for Gracie...eh, maybe if she stops with the immature princess routine stuff she has a chance. Otherwise, she'll have to wait until she actually matures and knows how to interpret her music.
    "Blowing it" is an extreme term, IMO, especially in Mao's case. She and Yuna were the undisputed frontrunners in Vancouver, but the field at Sochi will be deeper--all it would take for Mao to drop off the podium is a few UR'ed jumps. I don't doubt that she'll be looking to pack in as much technical difficulty as possible, which will give the judges room to deduct since she rarely (if ever) lands seven or eight clean triples.

  15. #105
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    Quote Originally Posted by FlattFan View Post
    1. Yuna is more consistent. So you don't see her doing terrible messy programs all the time. When she did, she got generous PCS. If you did 5 messy programs, and got generous 5 times. THAT IS ALL THE TIME. 100% of the times.
    Yu-Na didn't have 5 messy programs. I doubt you even looked at Yu-Na's 2008 GPF SP. She had one mistake, a popped jump. Using your standard of a "mess", I don't even know where to begin with Carolina Kostner--who won 2012 Worlds with a "messy" SP since she had a doubled jump. Your definition, not mine.

    2. Caro is inconsistent. Her PCS have dropped to 7th or 8th the competition. Not nearly as outrageous as Kim's.
    Yeah, Kostner's PCS dropped to 7th or 8th while her TES was near rock bottom. Case in point, the 2010 Olympics. Kostner got the 9th highest overall PCS in the FS. She had the lowest TES of all 24 competitors. The judges decided that her performance merited top 10 PCS even though she had so many errors and issues that she accomplished the least technically of all 24 skaters. But Kim is the one whose PCS is outrageous? Seems like black is white and white is black with you.

    http://www.isuresults.com/results/owg2010/SEG004.HTM

    What are you arguing, anyway? So you admit that Carolina frequently gets high PCS when she has mistakes because she's inconsistent; Yu-Na gets high PCS when she makes mistakes but she's more consistent...but your conclusion is that Yu-Na is the queen of PCS when the number of times that Carolina has benefited from high PCS in spite of mistakes far outnumbers Yu-Na's?

    The number of times that Carolina has gotten high PCS when she's made mistakes is significantly higher than the number of times Yu-Na has gotten high PCS when she's made mistakes.
    The number of times that Carolina has gotten an improved placement because she's gotten high PCS (versus her placement according to TES) is significantly higher than the number of times Yu-Na has gotten a better placement due to PCS versus her TES (zero).
    The difference in PCS/TES ranking (i.e. 2010 Olympics FS - 9th highest PCS; 24th TES) is FAR bigger for Carolina than it ever was for any other skater. Find me a time in the FS that Yu-Na received a PCS 15 places higher than where her TES would have put her.

    3. The fallacy that Yuna fans have used ALL the time over the year that PCS made a significant difference is so stupid that you discredited it in the same breathe. Whatever PCS Carolina has gotten, it didn't boost her past Irina in 2005, Mao in 2008. There's no difference. Idiots fall for that fallacy all the time. Thanks for agreeing with me.
    It has boosted Carolina past many skaters who were cleaner than her in both segments. Her overall placement would've been even worse had she not gotten such a huge boost PCS. And you reference 2008 Worlds, many felt Kim and Yukari Nakano should've been ahead of Kostner.

    4. Yes, I've said Caro was messy at 2013 Worlds. No one is saying otherwise.
    So she was a mess at 2013 Worlds, received very high PCS, and that additional PCS allowed her to get the silver over skaters who were cleaner than she was. That's a fact.

    Carolina has beautiful skating skills and some wonderfully unique programs, and a case can definitely be made that she deserves relatively high PCS even when she has mistakes. That's not a problem in itself. What's debatable is whether or not she deserves that much PCS and as frequently as she receives it. What's not really debatable is whether Kostner has benefited more from PCS than Yu-Na has. You don't have much of an argument here, the protocols and performances don't support you.

    Quote Originally Posted by FlattFan View Post
    Her PCS was 5th in the SP, and 10th in the LP at the Olympics. She was 2 points less than Rachael, ok.
    Btw, Kim was at mess at 2009 Skate America, and her PCS beat Rachael by how many points? 6.
    The only one truly saved by PCS is Kim.
    Again, don't get it twisted.
    And Rachael Flatt beat Yu-Na in the FS. But Yu-Na's PCS didn't save her. Rachael Flatt _fell_ in the SP and also had a spin voided in her FS. That's simply too many points given up, and Yu-Na also had one of the best performances of her SP at 2009 Skate America. PCS didn't save her. Not a controversial win decided by PCS. Nice try, though.

    ---
    And tying this back in to the topic of the thread, one of my takeaways from 2013 Worlds is that Kostner is as much a favorite for an Olympic medal of some color as is Patrick Chan, V/T, D/W, and Kim being favorites for the gold. I don't think Kostner will be the one to slip off the podium unless she repeats a performance like 2009 Worlds or 2010 Olympics, which based on her recent success, I don't think she will. So that makes it very tough for the Americans to sneak in--especially since each would have to substantially improve in certain areas to be considered a podium contender--Ashley technically and Gracie artistically--and then be consistent all season along. That's too much to accomplish next season prior to the Olympics. Even Sarah Hughes had done more prior to the Olympic season than what Ashley and Gracie have done at this point. Sarah had the technical arsenal that Ashley lacks (and the more lenient judging system to overlook the flaws), far more senior level experience that Gracie doesn't have, and simply more medals, including the key 2001 Worlds bronze.

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