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Thread: What do Ashley or Gracie need to do to Medal in Sochi

  1. #106
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    Ashley and Gracie will almost certainly get medals in Sochi thanks to the team competition. That's probably the best they can hope for but stranger things have happened in the Olympics before.

  2. #107
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    They would only both get a medal if the USFSA decied to have Wagner do the short program and Gold the long. Wagner had better hope Gold does not improve her SPs or she might not get to participate in the team event at all. The U.S might not medal in the team event as well. Canada is certainly the strong gold favorite in the Team Event. Beyond that Japan has much stronger singles in both ladies and mens most likely, but U.S has much stronger dance and pairs, but pairs probably wont be a big point getter for either. France should be strong in the team event. Russia should be very strong in team event, and compared to the U.S way stronger in pairs, stronger in mens if Plushenko comes back (even if Lysacek also does, I have no doubt Plushenko on Sochi ice will easily outscore Evan or any U.S man), and womens looks like U.S now but that could also change, while dance is U.S but not by as much as pairs. The U.S would be in a dogfight for a team medal and would be heavily reliant on Davis & Whites points.

  3. #108
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    I'll start with Gold.

    I think her best shot at a medal might be in this new team event, actually. Right now she seems to be the highest scorer of the US ladies in the long program, so it would make sense to have her skate the FS. Somehow I think the US will really want Lysacek back in full form if they're serious about medaling here.

    As for the regular event - it's quite simple: she has the scoring potential in the FS, and her recent scores have reflected that. Now she needs to step up her game in the short program so she can move into that final FS group and put herself in position for a medal. 58 points isn't going to be enough...she will need to move up into the mid-60s at least and that is going to take improvement mainly on the component marks. She needs to continue improving her mental toughness as well - she is handling nerves far better than she did in the beginning of the season, but is still making too many small bobbles and giving up valuable points in the process. She will need every single one of those points if she wants to challenge for a medal.

    Now, onto Wagner. It's basically the opposite situation with her - she's got the components and the rep, but is lacking the content. Don't get me wrong, I'm glad she did her part to get us 3 spots back...but from an individual perspective, I'm disappointed with her skates at Worlds. She was far too cautious and this is unlike her. Even after the conservative SP (why didn't she do the 3-3?) she was in fighting position to grab a medal if she went all out in the FS. Instead, she got into defensive mode again just like at Nationals and tightened up. Once she 2-footed that 2A/3T that was basically it. Then she lost focus and went down on those steps. It was still a respectable performance- she could have fallen apart after the mistake, but didn't- but I expect more from her, especially as 2-time US champ and 4th place finisher in 2012. It's like she's talking over and over about getting on the podium and winning, but we're just not seeing that same killer instinct on the ice. This year was a step back from last year.

    If she wants a medal in Sochi, she NEEDS that 3-3. No more playing it safe, no excuses, stop talking about it, make like your sponsor and JUST DO IT. And she needs to learn to pace herself so she peaks later in the season. This has been a chronic issue with Wagner, 2012 season notwithstanding...she's almost always better at the start of the season than at the end.

    For both - US Nationals is going to be interesting. Gold has beaten Wagner 2x in the FS already...will she close the gap in the SP? I don't think it's a matter of if, but when, that will happen. And everyone better watch out when it does.

  4. #109
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    Quote Originally Posted by FlattFan View Post
    Oh please. Yuna got generous PCS ALL the time.
    2008 GPF SP, she was a mess, but got higher PCS than a clean Mao.
    http://www.isuresults.com/results/gp..._SP_Scores.pdf
    30.44 vs. 29.68

    2010 World SP.
    http://www.isuresults.com/results/wc..._SP_Scores.pdf
    Second highest PCS for a really crappy SP, several mistakes.

    2010 World LP.
    http://www.isuresults.com/results/wc..._FS_Scores.pdf
    Highest PCS, 3 points higher than a clean Mao.

    2011 World SP
    http://www.isuresults.com/results/wc..._SP_Scores.pdf
    Highest PCS for a messy program without the 3x3, which is her trump card.

    2011 World LP.
    http://www.isuresults.com/results/wc..._FS_Scores.pdf
    Again, highest PCS for another messy program.

    Don't get it twisted. Yuna is queen of PCS, more often than anyone else. She doesn't make many mistakes, so you don't see her PCS saving her often. But they do when she made mistakes.
    Confused much?

    Out of the five you posted, her PCS was higher than her TES only TWO TIMES.

    The other 3 times, her TES was higher.

    So if she's the "queen of PCS" as you say, she is also the "empress of TES", since even when she skates "crappy" and/or "messy" she still manages to get more TES points than PCS.

    Your assertion that Yuna's PCS saves her when she makes errors is patently false, even by your own examples.

  5. #110
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    if Kim was the Queen of PCS they would have given her the 2008 and 2011 World titles which she narrowly lost by inflating her PCS but they didnt. Heck in 2008 especialy some thought she should have won, and her PCS in the LP with only a singled lutz were several points behind Mao who did a stomach plant, and about equal PCS to a really bad and messy Kostner (Kostners silver at Worlds that year was the most controversial ladies result the last decade, and was heavily booed by the European crowd).

  6. #111
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    Not going to waste time with any of Kim's fans.
    Kim was a mess in the 2008 SP. Both programs were terrible. She would be the worst World champion in EVER if she won in 2008.

    Kostner went for 3F-3T and 3Luz in the SP. And rotated 7 triples in the LP. She was messy, but it was her TES that saved her. Not PCS.

  7. #112
    Custom Title Nadia01's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by FlattFan View Post
    Not going to waste time with any of Kim's fans.
    Kim was a mess in the 2008 SP. Both programs were terrible. She would be the worst World champion in EVER if she won in 2008.

    Kostner went for 3F-3T and 3Luz in the SP. And rotated 7 triples in the LP. She was messy, but it was her TES that saved her. Not PCS.
    Why bother when you can't even back up your claims w/ numbers and facts? :shrug:

  8. #113
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    I got interested and checked the 2008 results. If I remember correctly, the ladies' part during the 2008 World was quite messy. For the medalists,
    the score was:

    SP Name TES PCS Deduction
    1 Carolina Kostner 36.34 27.94 0
    2 Mao Asada 35.22 28.88 0
    5 Yuna Kim 32.71 28.24 -1

    LP
    1 Yuna Kim 64.82 58.56 0
    2 Asada Mao 61.89 60.57 -1
    3 Carolina Kostner 61.88 58.52 0

    I hope this helps. :-)

  9. #114
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    Quote Originally Posted by seabm7 View Post
    I got interested and checked the 2008 results. If I remember correctly, the ladies' part during the 2008 World was quite messy. For the medalists,
    the score was:

    SP Name TES PCS Deduction
    1 Carolina Kostner 36.34 27.94 0
    2 Mao Asada 35.22 28.88 0
    5 Yuna Kim 32.71 28.24 -1

    LP
    1 Yuna Kim 64.82 58.56 0
    2 Asada Mao 61.89 60.57 -1
    3 Carolina Kostner 61.88 58.52 0

    I hope this helps. :-)
    Thanks,
    Mao got 97.11 combined for TES and 89.45 for PCS
    Caro got 98.22 combined for TES and 86.46 for PCS
    Yuna got 97.53 combined for TES and 86.76 for PCS

    So Caro got the highest TES and and lowest PCS. Some delusional fans continue to harp on and on about something 5 years ago without looking into what happened. So typical.

  10. #115
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    Quote Originally Posted by FlattFan View Post
    So Caro got the highest TES and and lowest PCS. Some delusional fans continue to harp on and on about something 5 years ago without looking into what happened. So typical.
    Well, it was not Yuna Kim who got the highest PCS at this event. There were several parties involved in the equation. Now can we go back to the original purpose of this thread?

  11. #116
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    They just need to be clean+have different 3-3
    Gracie has the bigger chance to compete and to be on the podium,imho

  12. #117
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nadia01 View Post
    Why bother when you can't even back up your claims w/ numbers and facts? :shrug:
    what else is new with that poster? everytime someone who has the knowledge to reply with his posts.. he start generalizing at chickened his way out. just a know it all.

    anyway... as for the topic.. there's no doubt that Gracie has the technical content and i believe she will mature in the next few years And anyone has the chance to medal. Ice is slippery.

  13. #118
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    Quote Originally Posted by cooper View Post
    what else is new with that poster? everytime someone who has the knowledge to reply with his posts.. he start generalizing at chickened his way out. just a know it all.

    anyway... as for the topic.. there's no doubt that Gracie has the technical content and i believe she will mature in the next few years And anyone has the chance to medal. Ice is slippery.

    Tis true, anyone has the chance to medal. But for Ashley to medal, Mao or Carolina will basically have to skate across the ice on their behinds.

  14. #119
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    Not necessarily. Wagner is capable of beating even a relatively good Asada at her best (see 4CC 2012).

  15. #120
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    Quote Originally Posted by R.D. View Post
    Not necessarily. Wagner is capable of beating even a relatively good Asada at her best (see 4CC 2012).
    Only in America. Not going to happen in Sochi.

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