GP Speculation-2013-2014: THE LADIES
Here's a list of GP 'guarantees' after Worlds 2013 data has been added. I have edited World Ranking lists to remove 2010-2011 points and reduce 2011-2012 points to 70% of their value.
Top 12 at Worlds are guaranteed two GP events each. * = Seed
* Yuna KIM
* Carolina KOSTNER
* Mao ASADA
* Kanako MURAKAMI
* Ashley WAGNER
* Gracie GOLD
Mae Berenice MEITE
The top 24 on World Rankings and/or Seasons Best Lists are guaranteed at least one GP event each.
The lists below do not include the top 12 at Worlds 2013
Top 24 World Rankings AND Seasons Best:
Top 24 World Rankings only:
Top 24 Seasons Best only (some of these may be on JGP):
Possible RETURNING SKATERS who have previously finished top 6 at Worlds; can get 2 GP events:
How many slots are available at each GP? Am I remembering correctly that this past season not all slots were filled?
From your list does that mean Mirai is the #3 ranked US skater internationally and Christina #4?
Bona Fide Member
Thank you for calculating all of this! The "Top 24 Seasons Best only" list is especially interesting: will JSF give the host pick to Miyahara? Will Radionova/Pogorilaya debut in the Senior GP during the Olympic season? My opinion is that Radionova should stay Junior, since she can win everything there (= gain WR points and a lot more medals) and she's not Sochi-eligible, but I would like to see Pogorilaya in the Senior GP... Alissa Czisny might get a SA spot if she skates well in at least a summer competition, I think it will be a fight between her and Zhang for the host pick, since Mirai, Christina and Agnes will probably receive other spots... I don't think that Hicks is going Senior, since she hasn't been to the JGPF yet. A couple of other thoughts: will Makarova receive one spot? Will Alena receive two spots?
Miyahara might get a GP invitation on the basis of her SB rank; it is possible that she could also get JPN's host pick. She is very small, but she is 15.
Radionova is debatable. She isn't age-eligible for Sochi, but is for the GP (I believe 2013-14 is the last season 14-year-olds will be eligible for the GP). It's 50-50 whether the Russian fed will nominate her for the GP---why give their Sochi eligibles the competition?
Makarova is #28 on WR and #26 on SB. The Russian fed could nominate her for the GP, but I' doubt they'd give her a host pick---Pogorilaya is more deserving and has more potential. But Ksenia is high on the SB list so she could get a substitute event; she would be attractive for hosts because she isn't much of a threat for their own ladies.
Alena Leonova is on both WR and SB and should get two invitations since she was the 2012 World silver medalist.
Hicks HAS been in the JGP. She won a gold medal in 2011-2012, then broke her leg at her second event. This past season, she won silver at her first event and was 4th at her second. She isn't top 24 on any list, so either she will do JGP again or get a host pick. Personally, I feel she needs a lot more polish and isn't quite ready for the GP yet.
Alissa Czisny has a shot at 2 GPs as a skater returning from injury. If she gets that status, she won't need the host spot at SA.
Gao, Zawadzki and Nagasu should get two invitations but you never know. Angela Wang is the interesting one. Will she have to do the JGP yet again, or could she get a host pick?
I'd say Hicks should stay junior, if she goes senior she likely needs a host pick and has little chances to get a 2nd event. Miller and Wang I think are ready for GP and I'd love to see them get 2 assignments, don't know how likely that is but we'll see. I don't mind if Czisny gets a spot but with her being injured and out for so long, I'd be disappointed to see her get 2 after being MIA this entire season and ending her last competitive season on a disastrous note - I'd rather see someone like Zawadzki, Wang, or Miller get a 2nd GP instead (Zawadzki can probably get 2 anyways though).
I think it would be smarter for Radionova to stay junior too, but that doesn't seem to be the trend of the young talented Russian girls: Adelina, Liza, and Julia all moved up to the GP 1 season after JGP even though they were not fully age-eligible, but then again, they are old enough for Sochi and Radionova isn't, and now there are only 2 spots anyway. I would like to see Pogorilaya compete on the GP, but I wonder with the 2 spots issue, if the Fed just keeps her in JGP another season and let's Radionova move up instead, on the basis that Radionova dominated the JGP this season, and with 2 spots Pogo has very slim chances to make the team anyways. If there were 3 spots I would think Pogorilaya would be moving up with more certainty, but now I am not sure. Biryukova and Shelepen struggled so much this season and are not on any list, only hope realistically is a host pick, Korobeynikova had a tough season too but she'll get at least 1 event due to WS. Even Agafonova could be in the mix for a host pick because she skated so well at the Russian Cup Final (provided she continues to skate like that). Is it numerically possible for Sotnikova, Tuktamysheva, Lipnitskaya, Radionova, Pogorilaya, and Leonova to each get 2 GPs and then Korobeynikova 1, or is that too many spots? If so, Radio or Pogo is likely out, though it's hard to say which one.