Mao's fans have selective memory. Right after the SP, people were surprised Mao got such a high score. She was lucky to be in the final group, quite frankly.
There is no way she should beat Kostner when 2 programs are combined. Even if Kostner's was called for the UR in the SP, Mao should have been called on 3 other jumps.
If the caller was any stricter, maybe Ashley would have won bronze over Mao and Kanako.
The thing is, Kostner is a superior skater in all program components, and Kostner has true lutz, true flip, 3x3. Mao has an unstable 3A and an UR issue. As it stands, Mao is not capable of beating Kostner.
If both improves, Kostner would still come out ahead.
Which is more likely?
Kostner hitting 7 triples vs. Mao hitting 8 triples? I give the former 10% chance and the latter 1% chance. If you were a betting man, you would bet Kostner for silver.