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Thread: Who can rival Kim in Sochi: Asada or Kostner?

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    skating philosopher Mrs. P's Avatar
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    Who can rival Kim in Sochi: Asada or Kostner?

    Okay, given that poor Miki Ando is so "washed up" that she can't get her own thread, I though we could continue the Mao vs Carolina discussion here. I'm not a uber fan of either but have found much to admire about both skaters.

    In the last quad, it was very much Mao vs. Yuna, though Mao was starting to slip a bit toward the end of the 2009 season. That said, this quad has been a bit different then everyone's expected. Mao has not dominated as expected and despite a very admirable effort to rework her jumps, she finished third behind Yuna and Carolina and has not won a world title since the end of the last quad.

    Carolina on the other hand seem to struggle in the last quad but really found her way in this quad. In fact, it's worth noting that with the exception of her two GP events this past fall (which she WD) she has been on the podium for every event she's entered, similar to Yuna in the last quad. Now Yuna has NEVER been off the podium in her entire career, she's got Carolina there.

    That said, I think Carolina makes a good case for being Yuna's key rival, even its a distant one. However, one should not underestimate the grit and determination of Mao either. She has survived a complete reworking of technique plus the unfortunate death of her mother and seem to be in fighting form at Worlds.

    So let's keep discussing.

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    Well which discussion is it, who is more likely to win the silver in Sochi between Kostner or Asada, or which has more of a chance to upset Kim for the gold? The two arent entirely the same answer neccessarily.

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    In either case, my mind tells me Caro but my heart says it'll probably be Mao. Mao could very well pull off that super program in Sochi, unlikely as it is.

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    Kim doesn't worry about winning, she just goes out there and skates to her capability, which is considerable. The problem is that Mao wants to win so badly, much like Michelle Kwan and Sasha Cohen. That's too much of a burden on the ice and it leads to mistakes. Kostner is a cooler customer---I suspect she doesn't focus as much on winning---but she, too, is prone to mistakes. I don't think either one of them is going to beat YuNa.

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    Of the 3 ladies, I think Caro has the most beautiful looking jumps. Yuna however shines with the consistent 3-3 and her ability to transition into jumps seamlessly. Caro could use a bit of work here but I feel Mao needs it even more. I know she's reworking her technique but it still looks awkward to see the hesitation before each jump (aside from her axel jumps of course, she's got a pretty nice 2-3).

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    skating philosopher Mrs. P's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    Well which discussion is it, who is more likely to win the silver in Sochi between Kostner or Asada, or which has more of a chance to upset Kim for the gold? The two arent entirely the same answer neccessarily.
    Either/or.

    Basically i just felt the discussion on the Miki thread merited its own thread.

    One could argue that Yuna will run away with the gold, but out of the two, which one could give her some run or a run for her money?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mrs. P View Post
    Either/or.

    Basically i just felt the discussion on the Miki thread merited its own thread.

    One could argue that Yuna will run away with the gold, but out of the two, which one could give her some run or a run for her money?
    More likely to win silver: Kostner IMO. Something like 70-30
    More likely to "upset" Kim for gold: Mao IMO. Something like 15% odds to only 5% odds for Kostner IMO.

    These are just my personal opinions but I think Kostner's chance to beat Kim was this year. I dont think it will come ever again. Kim has all the momentum back and will not be beaten on GOE or PCS by anyone, including Kostner, and Kostner doesnt do a higher base value or harder program. So even skating well I dont see where she would get ahead, and Kim is obviously the more consistent and likely to skate clean too. Kostner had some momentum built up in Kim`s absence, and the SP scoring at Worlds indicates she atleast had a fighting chance. However now that Kim is the reigning World and Olympic Champion again, and with her Worlds LP all the judges momentum is back in Kim`s favor, and it will take someone pulling something incredibly hard out of the hat (which leads us to Mao Asada next) to have a hope of beating her.

    Asada is more of a wildcard. She does not get the GOE or PCS of Kim or Kostner, and while she could come up with a masterpiece of a program to somewhat alter the PCS part, I dont think she will next year either. However she has by far the hardest program, as hard as the programs of both Kim and Kostner are, Asada had a huge base value edge. The problem is that it is so incredibly hard skating it cleanly is almost impossible, even 2 mistakes in the long is a good skate for her it seems. However if somehow lightning strikes and she skates perfectly or close to it in the short and longs with her current layout, that could make her a big threat to Kim, and if Kim makes any mistakes she could then lose.

    So who is more likely to win silver is Kostner I think. More likely to upset Kim for gold is Asada.

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    With Kostner and Asada and how the current competitive picture looks now heading into Sochi one could make it a 3 pronged question:

    Part A- which is more likely to beat Kim and (or) win the gold
    Part B- which is more likely to win out in the likely battle for silver
    Part C- which is more in danger of falling right off the podium in favor of the 4-10 skaters from Worlds this year

    The answer various people have for each could vary quite a bit.

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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post

    Part A- which is more likely to beat Kim and (or) win the gold
    Part B- which is more likely to win out in the likely battle for silver
    Part C- which is more in danger of falling right off the podium in favor of the 4-10 skaters from Worlds this year
    Part A - Mao
    Part B - Carolina
    Part C - Carolina due to her previous encounters at the Olympics but Mao could easily be off the podium as well.

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    Yuna has no rivals. Worlds proved it. The one who can out jump her and is a star is Gold but she'll never catch Yuna by next year unless the judges like her so much during GP and give her big scores in all areas. I think Gold has potential. But not enough world experience to challenge cool golden Yuna. Yuna is back and barring injury, all but an aftethought for gold again. The rest of the podium is once again the only discussion left.

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    Quote Originally Posted by skateluvr View Post
    Yuna has no rivals. Worlds proved it. The one who can out jump her and is a star is Gold but she'll never catch Yuna by next year unless the judges like her so much during GP and give her big scores in all areas. I think Gold has potential. But not enough world experience to challenge cool golden Yuna. Yuna is back and barring injury, all but an aftethought for gold again. The rest of the podium is once again the only discussion left.
    This x1000. Gracie Gold is the name you're looking for; and though I don't want to say she's in the same league as Yu-Na, entire package-wise, because she isn't, she IS in the framework (jumps: power, height, rotation, spins: she has better spins than Yu-Na, and footwork: I think Yu-na has found her style, and Gracie just needs to do the same). The big question here is artistry. She definitely needs the right packaging, and she needs the program of death.

    I agree though, Gracie's time is probably not Sochi, she's is definitely a lady to watch for the next quad. I doubt she catches up to Yu-Na by Sochi, but I do think she can make a good run at the podium with the usual caveat: 2 Clean Skates.


    Out of Mao or Caro... I just don't know. It's a tossup on who skates better on the day, and its not gonna be for first. I agree that, barring injury or some freak performance from Yu-Na, these two will probably be battling for silver.

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    Carolina and Mao would make great rivals.

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    If Carolina successfully adds the 3F-3T to both SP and LP, she would probably be the one to really watch out for.

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    Quote Originally Posted by prettykeys View Post
    If Carolina successfully adds the 3F-3T to both SP and LP, she would probably be the one to really watch out for.
    Assuming she can skate clean in such a big competition. I don't think in her 10 Worlds and 2 Olympics she's ever put two clean skates together.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Krislite View Post
    Assuming she can skate clean in such a big competition. I don't think in her 10 Worlds and 2 Olympics she's ever put two clean skates together.
    There is a first time for everything isnt there. Given her Olympic history that would be a mammoth feat to do it for the first time ever in World level competition there.

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