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Thread: Who can rival Kim in Sochi: Asada or Kostner?

  1. #136
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    Quote Originally Posted by Krislite View Post
    A threat to Kim in Sochi? I'm afraid that's too soon unless Kim makes mistakes, or if you're thinking beyond Sochi.
    is Kim even planning to go beyond Sochi.

  2. #137
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    For TES, I think Kostner competes well with Kim. Kostner's GOE are actually at Kim's level.

    In the SP, even if Kostner is doing 3T-3T, 3Lo, and 2A, she can score within 1 point from Kim's 3Lutz-3Toe, 3F, and 2A. (assuming both are clean) We all know the chance that Kim is clean is probably 5 times more than the chance Kostner is clean in the SP.

    In the LP, if Kostner is doing 7 triples LP, she would come out ahead of Kim.
    1 Lutz vs. 2 Lutzes
    1 Flip vs. 1 Flip
    1 Loop vs. 0 Loop
    2 Sal vs. 2 Sal
    2 Toe vs. 1 Toe

    Spins and steps go to Kostner. So the difference is 1 Loop 1 Toe vs 1 Lutz. Base value, Kostner would have 9.1 points and Kim would have 6 points. Kostner has 3 points advantage over Kim in base value. Similar GOE. Higher in spins and steps. Kostner would win if she can skate a clean LP. (I don't think she can do a clean long program to save her life, but a clean long from Kostner would beat a clean long program from Kim) And imagine the kind of PCS she would get for going clean.

    I've said before that if Kostner skated clean, Kim would have to be pristine clean to be competitive. Like in the SP, had Kostner skated clean, she would beat Kim because Kim wasn't pristine clean.

    Mao with a 10 points in BV advantage do give up a lot of them back on GOE. But she should be competitive with both if she can hit in the SP. She would be 2-3 points ahead of both, and maybe the same score in the LP.

    Gracie's GOE is not competitive with Yuna and Caro at the moment. Look at the score sheet, they are getting +2 +3 for their clean elements. Gracie's 3 Loop, 3Flip will never get that kind of GOE.

  3. #138
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    Quote Originally Posted by FlattFan View Post
    Gracie's GOE is not competitive with Yuna and Caro at the moment. Look at the score sheet, they are getting +2 +3 for their clean elements. Gracie's 3 Loop, 3Flip will never get that kind of GOE.
    Yes, her GOE isn't competitive, but it has nothing to do with the actual elements performed. Gracie's 3Z is better than Yuna's. She comes in on a deeper BO edge than Yuna and get comparable height and distance. It's a better lutz.

    I also have a hard time believing her 3L and 3F won't ever get +2/+3. You seem to be making absolute statements. Her Loop is just fine, her Flip, she does need some edge work going into it, but everything else is just fine. All of her elements save her footwork is comparable to Yuna's.

    When you say never, do you actually mean "next year"?

  4. #139
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    Quote Originally Posted by zschultz1986 View Post
    Yes, her GOE isn't competitive, but it has nothing to do with the actual elements performed. Gracie's 3Z is better than Yuna's. She comes in on a deeper BO edge than Yuna and get comparable height and distance. It's a better lutz.

    I also have a hard time believing her 3L and 3F won't ever get +2/+3. You seem to be making absolute statements. Her Loop is just fine, her Flip, she does need some edge work going into it, but everything else is just fine. All of her elements save her footwork is comparable to Yuna's.

    When you say never, do you actually mean "next year"?
    This. Gracie's problem ATM is executing the elements under pressure. She could easily get +2 or +3 GOE next season on the 3Flip and 3Loop if she works on her technical content over the summer.

  5. #140
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    Quote Originally Posted by zschultz1986 View Post
    Yes, her GOE isn't competitive, but it has nothing to do with the actual elements performed. Gracie's 3Z is better than Yuna's. She comes in on a deeper BO edge than Yuna and get comparable height and distance. It's a better lutz.
    Her lutz is very good. Deeper BO edge doesn't get you any more GOE than deep BO edge.
    I think both have comparable lutz. Yuna's lutz is very big, and covers a lot of distance. Same with Gracie. I think it depends on the day to say who has better lutz.
    Caro is also capable of getting huge GOE for her lutz. Her lutz is just perfect. I don't mind the long set up at all because she has speed, flow, height, distance going for that lutz as well.

    I also have a hard time believing her 3L and 3F won't ever get +2/+3. You seem to be making absolute statements. Her Loop is just fine, her Flip, she does need some edge work going into it, but everything else is just fine. All of her elements save her footwork is comparable to Yuna's.
    I don't think Gracie is capable of getting +2/+3 on her loop. If you compare her loop to Caro's 3 loop, which got her +2/+3 all the time, you will see a huge difference.
    Here are the 3Loops
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...5QumnSpk#t=24s
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...8A1ezsJA#t=95s

    Same with 3Flip. Look at Caro's 3Flip, which she also got +2/+3, Gracie's just incapable of getting even + GOE on her flip, let alone +2.

    When you say never, do you actually mean "next year"?
    I meant NEVER.

  6. #141
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    Quote Originally Posted by FlattFan View Post
    Her lutz is very good. Deeper BO edge doesn't get you any more GOE than deep BO edge.
    I think both have comparable lutz. Yuna's lutz is very big, and covers a lot of distance. Same with Gracie. I think it depends on the day to say who has better lutz.
    Caro is also capable of getting huge GOE for her lutz. Her lutz is just perfect. I don't mind the long set up at all because she has speed, flow, height, distance going for that lutz as well.


    I don't think Gracie is capable of getting +2/+3 on her loop. If you compare her loop to Caro's 3 loop, which got her +2/+3 all the time, you will see a huge difference.
    Same with 3Flip. Look at Caro's 3Flip, which she also got +2/+3, Gracie's just incapable of getting even + GOE on her flip, let alone +2.

    I meant NEVER.
    Well, then I think you're underestimating Gracie's ceiling.

    I concede that Caro's loop is better NOW than Gracie's but I think it's all a matter of edge control. The Loop is all about using the edge to generate rotational momentum, which I think that as Gracie matures and becomes a better overall skater, will become better.

    The genius of Yuna's lutz is that is really isn't a super deep BO edge. She rolls her ankle to get the correct edge, but it's not deep. It's deeper now than it was before, but really, go back and watch the good lutzes, their edges are MUCH deeper than Yuna's.

  7. #142
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    Quote Originally Posted by zschultz1986 View Post
    Well, then I think you're underestimating Gracie's ceiling.
    I think she has some great jumps, but loop, flip, and salchow are not her strength.
    If you think she can get +2/+3 on one of these jumps, then you really overestimate her potential.
    Let's wait until she can get +GOE on her flip first before expecting +2.

  8. #143
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    Quote Originally Posted by FlattFan View Post
    I think she has some great jumps, but loop, flip, and salchow are not her strength.
    If you think she can get +2/+3 on one of these jumps, then you really overestimate her potential.
    Let's wait until she can get +GOE on her flip first before expecting +2.
    Well, Loop and Flip weren't Yuna's strongest at all, but she nixed the loop and fixed the flip. I'd say give Gracie credit for actually doing ALL the triples and not chickening out on the ones that aren't her best and give her time to try and fix some of the other stuff.

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    Gold is too young and super talented to put a limit to what her career potential might be. Maybe what her potential is with less than a year to improve however.

  10. #145
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    Quote Originally Posted by FlattFan View Post
    I think she has some great jumps, but loop, flip, and salchow are not her strength.
    If you think she can get +2/+3 on one of these jumps, then you really overestimate her potential.
    Let's wait until she can get +GOE on her flip first before expecting +2.
    When she fixes the edge problem, Gracie's flip will get comparable GOE to her lutz--and you can quote me on that. I agree that she needs more practice with the loop and salchow, but setting limits on her this early in her career won't do her any good.

    ETA: Four judges at Worlds DID give Gracie +2 GOE on the 3Lo. The other five gave her +1. What I want to know is how her monster of a 2A-3T failed to net at least SOME +3's.

  11. #146
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    Quote Originally Posted by ForeverFish View Post
    When she fixes the edge problem, Gracie's flip will get comparable GOE to her lutz--and you can quote me on that. I agree that she needs more practice with the loop and salchow, but setting limits on her this early in her career won't do her any good.
    Right? we're talking about Gracie Gold as if she's this 20-something veteran of the Senior ladies. She's 17 and this was her first year on the Senior circuit. I'd say the technical ability she displayed in her first year and her first worlds was pretty dang impressive!

    We also have to realize we are comparing Gold (17) to Yuna (22) and Caro (26). She's got tons of time and I, for one, am very excited about her prospects going forward.

    Edit: I also agree on that 2A-3T GoE scoring. It was probably the best 2A-3T of the night, by a long way.

  12. #147
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    Right now if Gold and Kim skated totally clean I think the technical score would be very close, maybe Kim a couple points in front, but that is all. The PCS is where you would see the gulf. However the skaters with the best chance to compete with Kim technically in a hypothetical all clean scenario are Gold, Asada (due only to her huge base value), and to a lesser degree Kostner. On the PCS only Kostner and to a lesser degree Asada can stay in range though. However the thing with Gold is she already gets good (generous) PCS considering the level her skating is at, she is supported by a strong federation who loves her, and judges seem to like her alot too. I also see artistic potential and a huge capacity for growth, and I think in time she will improve alot on the 2nd mark. Now all that coming together in just one year to be a threat to Kim, probably unlikely, but still if I had to pick someone from 4-10 who had a faint hope to challenge Kim at the Olympics she would my first and only choice. It definitely wouldnt be any of the others, there is no scenario I can see Osmond, Li, Wagner, Murakami, or a Russian challenging Kim next year.
    If Gold beats Kim, Asada and Kostner at Sochi, it would be even more shocking than Sarah Hughes in 2002. At least Hughes had a World bronze medal, and she had home ice advantage. I just can't see it happening unless all three implode.

  13. #148
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    Quote Originally Posted by Krislite View Post
    If Gold beats Kim, Asada and Kostner at Sochi, it would be even more shocking than Sarah Hughes in 2002. At least Hughes had a World bronze medal, and she had home ice advantage. I just can't see it happening unless all three implode.
    Challenge is different than beat. I do think Gold has a fair shot at a medal. Do I think she's got a shot at the OGM? Yes, about a 5% chance, which I will review periodically as this next season goes on. Don't sleep on Gracie. If she has a strong Grand Prix season and goes into the Olympics as the American champion, and lays down a performance, she could medal.

    On the women's side, much more than the men, we have seen that if Yuna makes mistakes, she is judged fairly on them (unlike Chan). When Yuna makes mistakes and other don't they've beaten her (Worlds 07, 08, 11, etc).

  14. #149
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    Quote Originally Posted by ForeverFish View Post
    What I want to know is how her monster of a 2A-3T failed to net at least SOME +3's.
    Here's her 2A-3T. I wonder how you think she should get +3 GOE. Her landing is very stiff. Not a lot of flow out of the 3T.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...M5c47-Hk#t=94s

    If you want to see a good 2A-3T, here's a good one
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...gX_iScsQ#t=50s
    As a former world champion, she got less GOE than Gracie's in 2009. Just to show how inflated GOE have become.

  15. #150
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    So I've figured out her problem.... it's her knees. That's why her edge jumps aren't amazing, and also why she looks stiff on some of her landings. She needs to get down into that knee and ride those edges out of those jumps (as well as get down in that knee on the loop takeoff.)

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