For TES, I think Kostner competes well with Kim. Kostner's GOE are actually at Kim's level.
In the SP, even if Kostner is doing 3T-3T, 3Lo, and 2A, she can score within 1 point from Kim's 3Lutz-3Toe, 3F, and 2A. (assuming both are clean) We all know the chance that Kim is clean is probably 5 times more than the chance Kostner is clean in the SP.
In the LP, if Kostner is doing 7 triples LP, she would come out ahead of Kim.
1 Lutz vs. 2 Lutzes
1 Flip vs. 1 Flip
1 Loop vs. 0 Loop
2 Sal vs. 2 Sal
2 Toe vs. 1 Toe
Spins and steps go to Kostner. So the difference is 1 Loop 1 Toe vs 1 Lutz. Base value, Kostner would have 9.1 points and Kim would have 6 points. Kostner has 3 points advantage over Kim in base value. Similar GOE. Higher in spins and steps. Kostner would win if she can skate a clean LP. (I don't think she can do a clean long program to save her life, but a clean long from Kostner would beat a clean long program from Kim) And imagine the kind of PCS she would get for going clean.
I've said before that if Kostner skated clean, Kim would have to be pristine clean to be competitive. Like in the SP, had Kostner skated clean, she would beat Kim because Kim wasn't pristine clean.
Mao with a 10 points in BV advantage do give up a lot of them back on GOE. But she should be competitive with both if she can hit in the SP. She would be 2-3 points ahead of both, and maybe the same score in the LP.
Gracie's GOE is not competitive with Yuna and Caro at the moment. Look at the score sheet, they are getting +2 +3 for their clean elements. Gracie's 3 Loop, 3Flip will never get that kind of GOE.
I also have a hard time believing her 3L and 3F won't ever get +2/+3. You seem to be making absolute statements. Her Loop is just fine, her Flip, she does need some edge work going into it, but everything else is just fine. All of her elements save her footwork is comparable to Yuna's.
When you say never, do you actually mean "next year"?
I think both have comparable lutz. Yuna's lutz is very big, and covers a lot of distance. Same with Gracie. I think it depends on the day to say who has better lutz.
Caro is also capable of getting huge GOE for her lutz. Her lutz is just perfect. I don't mind the long set up at all because she has speed, flow, height, distance going for that lutz as well.
I don't think Gracie is capable of getting +2/+3 on her loop. If you compare her loop to Caro's 3 loop, which got her +2/+3 all the time, you will see a huge difference.I also have a hard time believing her 3L and 3F won't ever get +2/+3. You seem to be making absolute statements. Her Loop is just fine, her Flip, she does need some edge work going into it, but everything else is just fine. All of her elements save her footwork is comparable to Yuna's.
Here are the 3Loops
Same with 3Flip. Look at Caro's 3Flip, which she also got +2/+3, Gracie's just incapable of getting even + GOE on her flip, let alone +2.
I meant NEVER.When you say never, do you actually mean "next year"?
I concede that Caro's loop is better NOW than Gracie's but I think it's all a matter of edge control. The Loop is all about using the edge to generate rotational momentum, which I think that as Gracie matures and becomes a better overall skater, will become better.
The genius of Yuna's lutz is that is really isn't a super deep BO edge. She rolls her ankle to get the correct edge, but it's not deep. It's deeper now than it was before, but really, go back and watch the good lutzes, their edges are MUCH deeper than Yuna's.
Gold is too young and super talented to put a limit to what her career potential might be. Maybe what her potential is with less than a year to improve however.
ETA: Four judges at Worlds DID give Gracie +2 GOE on the 3Lo. The other five gave her +1. What I want to know is how her monster of a 2A-3T failed to net at least SOME +3's.
We also have to realize we are comparing Gold (17) to Yuna (22) and Caro (26). She's got tons of time and I, for one, am very excited about her prospects going forward.
Edit: I also agree on that 2A-3T GoE scoring. It was probably the best 2A-3T of the night, by a long way.
On the women's side, much more than the men, we have seen that if Yuna makes mistakes, she is judged fairly on them (unlike Chan). When Yuna makes mistakes and other don't they've beaten her (Worlds 07, 08, 11, etc).
If you want to see a good 2A-3T, here's a good one
As a former world champion, she got less GOE than Gracie's in 2009. Just to show how inflated GOE have become.
So I've figured out her problem.... it's her knees. That's why her edge jumps aren't amazing, and also why she looks stiff on some of her landings. She needs to get down into that knee and ride those edges out of those jumps (as well as get down in that knee on the loop takeoff.)