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Thread: Who can rival Kim in Sochi: Asada or Kostner?

  1. #151
    Six Point Zero Krislite's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by FlattFan View Post
    Here's her 2A-3T. I wonder how you think she should get +3 GOE. Her landing is very stiff. Not a lot of flow out of the 3T.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...M5c47-Hk#t=94s

    If you want to see a good 2A-3T, here's a good one
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...gX_iScsQ#t=50s
    As a former world champion, she got less GOE than Gracie's in 2009. Just to show how inflated GOE have become.
    Wasn't there a change in judges' guidelines in recent years to encourage use of greater spreads in GOE, particularly after the .7 factor was implemented? I though that was the case.

  2. #152
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    Quote Originally Posted by Krislite View Post
    If Gold beats Kim, Asada and Kostner at Sochi, it would be even more shocking than Sarah Hughes in 2002. At least Hughes had a World bronze medal, and she had home ice advantage. I just can't see it happening unless all three implode.
    Lets make one thing clear, I am NOT predicting the Olympic Gold for Gold in Sochi. I am not even predicting a medal per say, I actually predict the exact same podium as Worlds in the exact same order if I had to make a prediction (as boring as that sounds). I am just saying if someone told me I had to pick a skater from 4-10 at Worlds this year who would have a very outside shot to challenge Kim in Sochi, especialy if they improve alot, skate lights out there, and Kim makes rare mistakes, it would be Gold. I certainly think she would have a better shot than say Sotnikova, Osmond, or Wagner who I could never see challenging Kim next year under any circumstances. Atleast she can somewhat compete with Kim in one aspect of skating on a great day, is popular with judges and backed by a strong federation who seems to love her, and shows capacity and signs of potential for future growth even in her current weaker areas (although probably most of that in one year).

  3. #153
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    To me Akiko Suzuki could rival and match the program component score of Yu-Na. But, the judge always undermark Suzuki component side
    I wonder why, her program are always the most enjoyable to watch with great transition.

  4. #154
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    Suzuki is mountains behind Kim technically, even if she did 6 or 7 triples, she doesnt do the harder jump combinations, her jumps are way lower in GOE, her spins are much weaker; so the PCS aspect wouldnt matter. That said I do think Suzuki is underscored PCS but I dont think she deserves the PCS of the current top 3 if they skate well either. She doesnt have anywhere near the speed or ice coverage, and it actually is not true her programs have alot of hard transitions, they are charming and very musical, but often are pretty simple. One area I think Suzuki is really undermarked in is interpretation, I would give her a 10 for interpretation probably if I were a judge, and pretty high marks for performance and choreography, but much lower than the best in transitions and skating skills. However judges are instructed to score all 5 components together, and get in trouble if there is too much variance, which I find absurd and defeating the purpose of having seperate components.

    Suzuki was underscored this season and should have won both her grand prix events, and possibly been 2nd at grand prix final. Next season she will be in real tough though, Murakami is now the Japanese #2, and Suzuki will have to fight to even retain a spot on the Olympic team. I see no political support for her next season, which all but ends her international hopes, but a 2nd Olympics would be a beautiful way to end her unlikely late career great career.

  5. #155
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    Lets make one thing clear, I am NOT predicting the Olympic Gold for Gold in Sochi. I am not even predicting a medal per say, I actually predict the exact same podium as Worlds in the exact same order if I had to make a prediction (as boring as that sounds). I am just saying if someone told me I had to pick a skater from 4-10 at Worlds this year who would have a very outside shot to challenge Kim in Sochi, especialy if they improve alot, skate lights out there, and Kim makes rare mistakes, it would be Gold. I certainly think she would have a better shot than say Sotnikova, Osmond, or Wagner who I could never see challenging Kim next year under any circumstances. Atleast she can somewhat compete with Kim in one aspect of skating on a great day, is popular with judges and backed by a strong federation who seems to love her, and shows capacity and signs of potential for future growth even in her current weaker areas (although probably most of that in one year).
    That's true about Gold--she has the backing of the international judges. Her Worlds FS, if clean, would taken her above 130 (and 190+ overall).

  6. #156
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    Here's the ladies at World this year.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bguVR...endscreen&NR=1

    Going through it again, here are some additional observations
    1. Caro's 3lutz in warm up is so big, with a lot of speed in and out. The kind of flow that Gracie needs to get good GOE. Her jumps are just so stiff right now. I wouldn't give +GOE on most of them. +2 GOE on the solo lutz, +1 on the loop, +1 on the 2A-Toe, the rest of them, 0 GOE. The performance aspect was not there yet. Compare to the girls that follow, she was like a little kid.
    2. Liza skated within 2/3 of the rink. She did not go to either ends of the rink. Very small jumps. Didn't cover any distance on her jumps. Whoever said this girl is a jumper is insane. Her jumps are adequate. I wouldn't give any +GOE. She does have good technique on all of them, but they don't have the wow factor. Skate bigger and with more speed, then the jumps will be bigger and cover more distance. That's the only way she can move up.
    3. Adelina. This girl has so much trouble with all of her jumps. I just notice her flip, she rocked it from one edge to another and back to inside edge. It was like Caroline Zhang back in the day. No wonder the flip was so unstable. Terrible technique. Flutz is obvious. Both 3Toe are so URed. Why put 3T at the end of the combo when she had so much trouble rotating them jumps? I don't think she's a contender with the jumps being so horrible. None of the jumps were any good, save for the loop. She should repeat the loop. Even so, her loop wasn't remarkable.
    4. Zijun. I just can't believe how quickly she rotated her jumps. Her jumps are very small, and she doesn't cover the ice as well as the other girls. Should not get any +GOE on the jumps, either. Second viewing, I would mark her at least 4-5 points down from 127+. That wasn't a 127+ performance. Miki Ando at 2009 Worlds didn't even crack 127, and her jumps were so nice and with a nicer stronger performance. It was an inflated score.
    5. Ashley. I didn't think she hold back at all viewing it again. She went for it, almost lost the first flip. Didn't get a lot of height in her jumps. The better jumps are also just adequate. Max +1 GOE. Nothing warranted +2 or +3.
    6. Kanako. Oh boy, terrible technique on the toe jumps. 3flutz should be -2 for being ugly and flutzy. 3flip should be -1. 3Loop should be -1. 3 Sal +1. Should repeat the 3Sal and 3Toe, at least those should give her +Goe and no problem with UR. When she was in junior, the 3loop gave her a lot of problem. I think it's a mistake to repeat it.
    7. Caro. The lutz was just perfect, text book perfect. Landing is perfect. A lot of flow. I really appreciate good jumps with good flow in and out. Right after the lutz, she was wiping her nose again before going for the 2A. Compare her 2A with the likes of Gracie's and Liza's and Adelina's, there is a massive difference in speed, control, and landing, and flow. Those young girls should beat the old bags with jumps, instead, they are so behind. The best skating skill all around. So above and beyond both Mao and Yuna in that department. She smiled every time she went into any jumps, which freaked me out. Goil, you need to focus! Maybe Caro has ADD. Also, watching her covering the entire rink, and watch Liza or Zijun, you'll see why these two skated so small. They don't even bother going to the end of the rink most of the times.
    8. Mao. Mao covered the ice well. Speed is average. Great footwork. Good jumps toward the end. But she has so many weakness in her jumps. Flutz. flip always look URed. Labored. She lost the lightness in her skating ever since 2009. It didn't look effortless. And her free leg was just a bit clumsy whenever she landed the jumps. Not a lot of flow, not a lot of control. Should be 0 GOE for most of them.
    9. Yuna. Great combo. +2/+3 for that one. Sal wasn't that good. +1. Flip was good +1/+2. 2As +1/+2. Solo lutz +1/+2. Overall, she was the best one, but her choreography is so much weaker than Mao and Caro. Her IN is also not quite "les mis" A bit overscored, maybe by 5 points. One of the best LPs at world nevertheless. I wish Caro can have Yuna's mentality and 3Lz-3T. i wish Mao would skate faster, and clean up her jumps more.

    The final standing is correct. Maybe the gap between 3rd and 4th could have been bigger.
    183 for Kanako
    181 for Ashley
    180 for Gracie

  7. #157
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    Quote Originally Posted by FlattFan View Post
    8. Mao. Mao covered the ice well. Speed is average. Great footwork. Good jumps toward the end. But she has so many weakness in her jumps. Flutz. flip always look URed. Labored. She lost the lightness in her skating ever since 2009. It didn't look effortless. And her free leg was just a bit clumsy whenever she landed the jumps. Not a lot of flow, not a lot of control. Should be 0 GOE for most of them.
    9. Yuna. Great combo. +2/+3 for that one. Sal wasn't that good. +1. Flip was good +1/+2. 2As +1/+2. Solo lutz +1/+2. Overall, she was the best one, but her choreography is so much weaker than Mao and Caro. Her IN is also not quite "les mis" A bit overscored, maybe by 5 points.
    Mao gained GOE 1-2 on her all jump (except wrong edge, UR jumps).
    3lo+2lo 1~2 / 2a+3t 2~3 / 3s 1~2

    when I look your judgement GOE to yuna,
    (3lz+3t 2~3 / 3f 1~2 / 2a 1~2 / 3lutz 1~2 / 3s 1)
    it looks like other skater's GOE should be lower.

    If you say Yuna was a bit overscore (because she get goe higher than your judgement)
    Also, you can say the same for Mao, right? (you said almost all of her jump should not get goe, but she get goe on all jumps)

  8. #158
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    Quote Originally Posted by FlattFan View Post
    Here's the ladies at World this year.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bguVR...endscreen&NR=1

    7. Caro. The lutz was just perfect, text book perfect. Landing is perfect. A lot of flow. I really appreciate good jumps with good flow in and out. Right after the lutz, she was wiping her nose again before going for the 2A. Compare her 2A with the likes of Gracie's and Liza's and Adelina's, there is a massive difference in speed, control, and landing, and flow. Those young girls should beat the old bags with jumps, instead, they are so behind. The best skating skill all around. So above and beyond both Mao and Yuna in that department. She smiled every time she went into any jumps, which freaked me out. Goil, you need to focus! Maybe Caro has ADD. Also, watching her covering the entire rink, and watch Liza or Zijun, you'll see why these two skated so small. They don't even bother going to the end of the rink most of the times.
    Flattfan, your analysis of Carolina will make me look at her performance a lot more closely. You really make the case for her place among the top skaters. Isn't it interesting how her career has developed: she makes it to the top at an age when most ladies are considered done for. She had the luxury of growth because she skates for a country where there are really no other contenders. It kind of makes you wonder what would have happened with skaters from more crowded countries, if they had had the chance to grow past their early weaknesses.

    Carolina exemplifies why I like to take the long view about skaters. Some people just grow at a different pace. Shizuka and Akiko are other examples. And Paul Wylie, of course, among the men.

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    I also noticed that Carolina no longer takes the length of the rink to set up her lutz, the way she used to. She just does it, and so easily.

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    Quote Originally Posted by venlac View Post
    Mao gained GOE 1-2 on her all jump (except wrong edge, UR jumps).
    3lo+2lo 1~2 / 2a+3t 2~3 / 3s 1~2

    when I look your judgement GOE to yuna,
    (3lz+3t 2~3 / 3f 1~2 / 2a 1~2 / 3lutz 1~2 / 3s 1)
    it looks like other skater's GOE should be lower.

    If you say Yuna was a bit overscore (because she get goe higher than your judgement)
    Also, you can say the same for Mao, right? (you said almost all of her jump should not get goe, but she get goe on all jumps)
    Yes, Yuna was a bit overscore in GOE. Same with Mao.
    Caro was about right in GOE. I would call UR on her 3T in the SP, though.

    I thought overall, Yuna was about 5 points higher than I would give her.
    Caro was about 3 points overscored.
    Mao was about 6 points overscored.
    Doesn't change the final standing one bit, doesn't change the gap between 1st, 2nd, and 3rd by much either.

  11. #161
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    Quote Originally Posted by Olympia View Post
    Flattfan, your analysis of Carolina will make me look at her performance a lot more closely. You really make the case for her place among the top skaters. Isn't it interesting how her career has developed: she makes it to the top at an age when most ladies are considered done for. She had the luxury of growth because she skates for a country where there are really no other contenders. It kind of makes you wonder what would have happened with skaters from more crowded countries, if they had had the chance to grow past their early weaknesses.

    Carolina exemplifies why I like to take the long view about skaters. Some people just grow at a different pace. Shizuka and Akiko are other examples. And Paul Wylie, of course, among the men.
    One word to describe their careers: satisfying.
    Hopefully after 2014, there will be some young ones who will take their places. Currently, I see none.

  12. #162
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    Quote Originally Posted by FlattFan View Post
    Y
    I thought overall, Yuna was about 5 points higher than I would give her.
    Caro was about 3 points overscored.
    Mao was about 6 points overscored.
    Doesn't change the final standing one bit, doesn't change the gap between 1st, 2nd, and 3rd by much either.
    Would you elaborate please? The only jumps Mao got +GOE in her LP were 3L-2L (0.6), 2A-3T (1.4 - you can make a case there but both jumps were huge and clean. Not a lot of flow out of the combination but it was a well executed combo) and 3S (0.9 - her 3S in this competition was no worse than Yuna's who got a bigger GOE). The +GOE she got on her 3A in the SP was wrong but that still doesn't add up to 6 points IMO. Her spins were painfully slow in the LP but so was her GOE. Her steps and spiral though were first rate. Her overall GOE was around 3.5 points, compared to Yuna's ~15 and Caro's 11 (who also had a fall).
    Carolina's 3T from the SP was Ured and her 3F-3T was very close to me, the second jump was barely landed and still got 0.9 GOE. Besides that, I have no problem with her scores. To me, it was a very close call on the silver.
    Yuna's GOE was very very high but her execution was spot on. Those monstrous 3Lz jumps and even her flip deserved the huge GOE. I think her 3S is a weaker jump for her and the GOE could have been lower but other than that, what can you take away from her?

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    Quote Originally Posted by FlattFan
    Liza. Very small jumps. Didn't cover any distance on her jumps. Whoever said this girl is a jumper is insane. Her jumps are adequate. I wouldn't give any +GOE.
    But isn't great height/distance just 1 bullet point for GOE? High jumps don't automatically mean +3 and smaller jumps dont automatically mean 0 GOE. Even if a skater doesn't jump that high, if they have good air position, good flow out, difficult steps leading in, etc. they should still be able to get +GOE.

    Take a look at Sasha Cohen's flip in her 2002 Olympics short program. The footwork into her flip was spectacular, so difficult and fast and flowing. Good flowout, good air position. I haven't seen anyone else do that much footwork into their flip. Even though the jump was not that high, I think it still would have earned positive GOE.

  14. #164
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mirunna View Post
    Would you elaborate please? The only jumps Mao got +GOE in her LP were 3L-2L (0.6), 2A-3T (1.4 - you can make a case there but both jumps were huge and clean. Not a lot of flow out of the combination but it was a well executed combo) and 3S (0.9 - her 3S in this competition was no worse than Yuna's who got a bigger GOE).
    2
    I also said Yuna shouldn't get high GOE on her Sal. I thought it was just ok.
    The 3L-2L was just alright. I think she did her job, it wasn't anything to write home about or this is how it's done type of jump. People are giving too much GOE for just completing the jump. A triple without any problem should get 0 GOE.
    Her SS is also much weaker compare to the other 2. She's visibly slower. Maybe half a point back. That's 3.5 right there.
    Her 3A in the SP should have been -2. Here and there, 6 points lower is appropriate.

    Her steps and spiral though were first rate. Her overall GOE was around 3.5 points, compared to Yuna's ~15 and Caro's 11 (who also had a fall).
    Caro's fall net her -GOE, so I'm not sure what you're trying to say. Her GOE are for the elements she did well, not the element she didn't.
    Mao didn't do any jumps well enough to earn + GOE.
    Yuna was overscored on GOE in a few elements s well.

    Carolina's 3T from the SP was Ured and her 3F-3T was very close to me, the second jump was barely landed and still got 0.9 GOE. Besides that, I have no problem with her scores. To me, it was a very close call on the silver.
    Caro's 3T looked URed, but they didn't call it. I would have called it. But Mao's inflated GOE just made it a moot point.
    I don't think the silver was supposed to be that close. Mao was good in the LP, Caro was magnificent.

    Yuna's GOE was very very high but her execution was spot on. Those monstrous 3Lz jumps and even her flip deserved the huge GOE. I think her 3S is a weaker jump for her and the GOE could have been lower but other than that, what can you take away from her?
    I agree. +2/+3 for the lutz and lutz combo. +2 for the flip.
    The rest should be +1 max.
    That's why I thought she should have been 5 points lower.


    In the end, nothing changes. The problem is crazy GOE.

  15. #165
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    If Carolina can produce a clean 7 triples performance, she has a realistic chance of gold.
    ETA - the Lutz really worked well for her this season, I think she didnt miss any of those she competed.

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