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Thread: Who can rival Kim in Sochi: Asada or Kostner?

  1. #226
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    Quote Originally Posted by ForeverFish View Post
    But since the 3F-3Lo is exceedingly difficult, why doesn't she jump a lutz-toe or flip-toe? Or even a toe-toe?
    Beacsue it was easier for Mao to add 3Lo than 3T as the second jump of a combination when she was younger. Mao was not good at doing a toe loop, I mean, when it comes to adding 3T in a jump combination...she tended to toe-axel it back then. But she now has much improved/more reliable 2A-3T it seems, she can try 3F-3T combination in the new season I think. Go Mao!

  2. #227
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    Quote Originally Posted by mateusp1 View Post
    I am a huge Carofan. That said, I have to say that she has never been able to skate a "completely clean, flawless" long program, executing everything she planned with the quality she is able to do.
    That's true. She had a great chance to win at this past Worlds if she went clean in both programs. (Based on the scoring in the SP, the judges were willing to give her the edge in PCS). Kostner is far from the headcase she was a few years ago, but she is still prone to mistakes. I actually agree with the assessment made by one poster that Kostner is much more likely to win silver over Mao but Mao has a higher chance of pulling an upset. Based on their results in recent years, Kostner is more likely to do better than Mao, but I feel the chance of Mao going clean or almost clean at the Olympics is greater than Kostner's.

  3. #228
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    For Kostner to even have a chance to beat Kim she has to do harder jumps then she has been doing the last few years but i don't think she can skate clean if she does that. It's not a coincidence that the year she won Worlds and dominated she wasn't even doing a triple lutz. That's what puts Kim in a league of her own she never waters down her technical content yet can skate clean.

  4. #229
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    Quote Originally Posted by FlattFan View Post
    Caro should upgrade her SP to 3F-3T, 3Lo
    And LP

    3Lz
    2A
    3F-3T
    3Lo
    ------
    2A-3T
    3F
    3S-2T-2Lo

    I do not see Caro performin this program cleanly. As much I am a huge fan and I know she is able to skate a more difficult content than this you suggested. But, not in competition. Not in Olympics.

    Also, some Carofans, members of her forum, already know what really works good for Caro. I am gonna give examples:

    1- Flips, Loops and Lutzes need to come in the first part of the program(with lutz and loop being the first two elements and solo jumps).

    2- In the second part, it is possible to put the combos and axels, salchows e toes.

    That said, I also have to say that jump layout really depends of the program that is being performed.

    Considering the Bolero layout, I have suggested to some of my Carofan friends:

    3Lz, 3Lo, 3F+3T, 2A, 3T+2T(or 2A+3T),3S+2T+2Lo, 3S

    For Mozart, for example, she could have skated(no Lutz here):

    3Lo, 3F, 2A+3T, 3T+2T, 2A, 3S, 3S+2T+2T

    Caro can have "two" triple loops:

    1- The gorgeous, beautiful, high and long loop. But, it needs to come very early in the program

    2- The more inconsistent, +1 Loop, that comes later.

    When she first skated to Bolero, a lot of Carofans were very concerned about the position of the loop in the LP, since it was very late. In the previous season, the loop was the first element and Caro landed it 100% of the times she attempted.

  5. #230
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    Quote Originally Posted by miki88 View Post
    That's true. She had a great chance to win at this past Worlds if she went clean in both programs. (Based on the scoring in the SP, the judges were willing to give her the edge in PCS). Kostner is far from the headcase she was a few years ago, but she is still prone to mistakes. I actually agree with the assessment made by one poster that Kostner is much more likely to win silver over Mao but Mao has a higher chance of pulling an upset. Based on their results in recent years, Kostner is more likely to do better than Mao, but I feel the chance of Mao going clean or almost clean at the Olympics is greater than Kostner's.
    I agree that Mao has more chances of pulling an upset to Gold. because Mao has more chances to have clean or almost cleans than kostner. Mao has the highest potential of scoring if all skaters gonna cleans. like Chan in Mens. I really want not kim YuNa, Mao Asada can bring up two perfect programs in Sochi. I don't agree that kostner is more likely to win silver over Mao in 2014 Sochi Olympic. Despite of the fact that judges really love her, I don't think judges at olympic will allow kostner to win medal if she falls like at 2013 World. As many knows, she has not been able to skate a almost cleans, Especially long program.

  6. #231
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    Quote Originally Posted by venlac View Post
    I try to thinking differently...

    I realized that in WC Mao's FS score was her personal best; broke the record of 6 years ago in this article..
    http://www.nikkansports.com/sports/n...3-1111756.html
    within this article, she was surprised that Fs score was the personal best score.
    although It was not the perfect program for her. (3a 2foot, 3F<, 3lz 'e', 3F+2lo<+2lo)
    Now she seem to have a larger potential to raise score than when she was young
    yes. It's true

    Quote Originally Posted by mateusp1 View Post
    Both can beat Kim or come very close. They just need to skate two flawless programs. What makes Kim so "unbeatable" right now is that she is the only lady able to skate two flawless, mistake-free programs.
    Yes!! This is what I thought exactly

  7. #232
    Rejoicing in the land of Kwan kwanatic's Avatar
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    I've said it in other threads: Yu-Na controls her own destiny. Her's is the only case where that whole "I'm the only one who can defeat myself" adage holds true b/c it is true: if Yu-Na skates cleanly, no one can beat her...if she makes mistakes, she opens the door.

    I do think both Mao and Carolina can rival Yu-Na in Sochi but I think Carolina has a better shot at silver and I agree that Mao is the darkhorse upset for gold.

    I don't think Carolina needs that much more content to contend with Yu-Na; her main thing is skating cleanly which she is not known for doing. Yu-Na wasn't known for consistently skating flawlessly either but she did it in Vancouver and again at worlds this year which means she is capable and therefore more likely to do it than Mao or Carolina, who I can't recall ever skating two flawless back-to-back programs. If Carolina is completely clean, she'd give Yu-Na a very hard run for her money but, ultimately, I think she'd finish a narrow second. However if Yu-Na makes a mistake and Carolina is clean, I think Carolina would get the nod over Yu-Na and finish first.

    As for Mao, she's the underdog for gold in Sochi. Carolina has been trending upward for the past two or three years and Yu-Na is at the top. Mao has been trending upward as well in these past two seasons but her battle is much more uphill than the other two. Next to those two, Mao's weaknesses are very apparent. I think Mao has nice speed but next to Carolina aka Speedy Fettucini and Yu-Na, Mao actually looks slow. Minus her speed, I think Mao is on equal footing with those two in terms of skating skills...but speed is what counts b/c that's what leaves the big impression on the ice.

    Next to the other two, Mao's jumps don't match up. Yu-Na and Carolina both have textbook jumps that receive good GOE from the judges b/c of their speed, height and distance. Mao's lutz is still a flutz. Her jumps don't cover much distance and her riding edge doesn't have much speed either...this equals less GOE. Add that to her UR issues and that's even more points she loses.

    Mao's strategy for countering her technical shortcomings is to cram her program full of potential content. The 3A along with a 3-3 and 2-3 give Mao a technical advantage that would be insurmountable...if she were to land everything. However, the odds of nailing all three of those difficult passes without error in addition to landing the rest of her jumps without error are very low. IMO, Mao is going with quantity over quality: she may not land everything but the partial credit she gets for attempting it (assuming she rotates everything) may make the risk worth it.

    I think Mao has a chance at gold in Sochi but she'll need to be near perfect and others will have to make mistakes. In a scenario where everyone skates cleanly (very unlikely), I think Mao would win, Yu-Na would be second and Carolina would be 3rd. Realistically looking at the situation and judging by where everyone is currently, I think the Sochi podium is more likely to mirror the podium from this year's worlds...

  8. #233
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    Quote Originally Posted by kwanatic View Post
    I don't think Carolina needs that much more content to contend with Yu-Na; her main thing is skating cleanly which she is not known for doing. Yu-Na wasn't known for consistently skating flawlessly either but she did it in Vancouver and again at worlds this year which means she is capable and therefore more likely to do it than Mao or Carolina, who I can't recall ever skating two flawless back-to-back programs. If Carolina is completely clean, she'd give Yu-Na a very hard run for her money but, ultimately, I think she'd finish a narrow second. However if Yu-Na makes a mistake and Carolina is clean, I think Carolina would get the nod over Yu-Na and finish first.
    please explain to me. I really do not know.
    if Yuna was not consistent skater, then, who was the most consistent skater among top skaters in before vancouver?(I guess you are talking about the period which before 2010 vancouver) Yuna didn't had often two clean programs(All can't do lol... ), but she had often cleaner programs(1 or 2 mistakes). who could do usually just small mistakes as well as her?

  9. #234
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    Quote Originally Posted by venlac View Post
    please explain to me. I really do not know.
    if Yuna was not consistent skater, then, who was the most consistent skater among top skaters in before vancouver?(I guess you are talking about the period which before 2010 vancouver) Yuna didn't had often two clean programs(All can't do lol... ), but she had often cleaner programs(1 or 2 mistakes). who could do usually just small mistakes as well as her?
    No female skater was skating consistently cleanly in that era at the top level, venlac...although I think Mao Asada managed to have a few competitions. It was not expected by ANYONE that YuNa would have two clean back-to-back skates at the Olympics, her first as a Senior.

    Before that era, Michelle Kwan was known for having so many clean skates during high-pressure competitions (Worlds, US Nationals, etc.) that, at her peak, it was more surprising to see her make mistakes than not.

  10. #235
    Rejoicing in the land of Kwan kwanatic's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by venlac View Post
    please explain to me. I really do not know.
    if Yuna was not consistent skater, then, who was the most consistent skater among top skaters in before vancouver?(I guess you are talking about the period which before 2010 vancouver) Yuna didn't had often two clean programs(All can't do lol... ), but she had often cleaner programs(1 or 2 mistakes). who could do usually just small mistakes as well as her?
    Prettykeys explained it well enough (Thanks Pretty! )

    Yu-Na was a solid and consistent competitor but in terms of skating without error, she did that for the first time in Vancouver. But, like Prettykeys said, hardly anyone was skating back-to-back programs without error. Yu-Na would fall, pop or omit a jump but it rarely hurt her score much b/c others made mistakes too.

    When Yu-Na makes mistakes she removes that air of invincibility and can be beaten...but the catch is that person has to be clean themselves and that's what makes Yu-Na tough to beat b/c 100% flawless back-to-back skating under IJS is a very rare thing.

  11. #236
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    To be honest, Michelle Kwan is a rare case that can go cleanly very often. We rarely see clean back-to-back sp and lp starting early 90's. The technical content has been very demanding for ladies from then. It's basically too hard to have clean programs in one competition.

    Kim's track record is probably the second best coming out of post 90's. There will probably never be a skater as consistent as Kwan in the foreseeable future. That's why Kwan is among the greatest although she didn't have the hardest technical content, even if we don't take her programs' artistry into account.

  12. #237
    Rejoicing in the land of Kwan kwanatic's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by McIce View Post
    Kim's track record is probably the second best coming out of post 90's. There will probably never be a skater as consistent as Kwan in the foreseeable future.
    Actually...I'd give that honor to, believe it or not, Rachael Flatt. From about 2008 until the end of 2010, Rachael skated back-to-back clean programs many, many times. I used to call her "Old Faithful"...like the geyser: she was consistent, reliable and kinda boring . After the 2009-2010 season things started going downhill. She got injured and her consistency went out the window and never came back...but for a while there she was consistently producing 6- and 7-triple programs without error. It was very impressive.

    But Michelle is still the gatekeeper on consistently delivering simply b/c she continuously did it over the course of nearly 10 years. Rachael's consistency run was impressive but it was short-lived.

  13. #238
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    Quote Originally Posted by kwanatic View Post
    Actually...I'd give that honor to, believe it or not, Rachael Flatt. From about 2008 until the end of 2010, Rachael skated back-to-back clean programs many, many times. I used to call her "Old Faithful"...like the geyser: she was consistent, reliable and kinda boring . After the 2009-2010 season things started going downhill. She got injured and her consistency went out the window and never came back...but for a while there she was consistently producing 6- and 7-triple programs without error. It was very impressive.

    But Michelle is still the gatekeeper on consistently delivering simply b/c she continuously did it over the course of nearly 10 years. Rachael's consistency run was impressive but it was short-lived.
    True, Rachel Flatt was very consistent prior to 2010, but her GOE and PCS were pretty mediocre which made her never broke into her top tier. I totally forgot her negligible consistency...

    However, I have to give it to her being the few that can get both 3Lz and 3F ratified with correct edge during that era.

  14. #239
    Rejoicing in the land of Kwan kwanatic's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by McIce View Post
    I totally forgot her negligible consistency...
    LMAO!

    That's hilarious! It's true though...even when she'd throw down a flawless 7-triple program, I still was underwhelmed by her. I didn't care that she landed everything b/c she bored me while doing it...bless her heart.

  15. #240
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    Quote Originally Posted by FlattFan View Post
    I would like Carolina to win as well. She's my favorite at this moment.
    I'd love to see Caro win. I think she still does beautiful programs, and I just watch and go wow. She doesn't have those consistent triple triple that YuNa has but even over TV or internet, she just sparkles. I love her and Akiko, and root for the ladies who have it all but took a long time to blossom fully. The last two years I have tremendously enjoyed her programs. Years ago when she emerged I thought shed be the next big star, then YuNa Joannie and Mao were like shooting stars. Caro is ending her long career I think and I'd like to see her podium. YuNa has gold and while I like her very much (I think it mite be love if I could see her in person), she has those flaws which irk me as an artist. I'm a big Sasha fan, and loved the artistic Mao who atttempted triple axels. So I really do care about finer points like turnout, spirals, fast centered spins, pointed toes, and joyous skating.

    I really hope Akiko is recognized this year as she is so under rated it is not funny. I adore her-so joyous. The japanese ladies manage tough jumps while smiling and connecting. I am in awe of the string that started with Midori. So if I could wish two for the ages performances on two people who are not americans, it would be Akiko and Caro as they have come so far and through much, esp Akiko.

    I also really love Ashley Wagner's beautiful presentation. She is an athlete and an artist. I hope great performances for her and two newbies that can be awesome are Osmond and Gold. So I am rooting for two older lady veterans, a "mid aged" lovely fighter, Ms Wagner and then the two shining new stars who I expect to podium in 2018 if not soon, Osmond and Gold. I love how joyous Osmond is, a real dancer who jumps pretty well. I think Gold, if she gains confidence, could be the next YuNa in terms of off the hook scores as she is right now a great jumper, and I like the way she moves-she truly has it all.

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