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Thread: Who can rival Kim in Sochi: Asada or Kostner?

  1. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    It is her last chance for sure, even if she chose to go to 2018 (which I doubt). She would be 28 years old in 2018. She knows that too and it is why she is going out all out with crazy ambitious jump layouts to try and get it. People that age never wins a singles gold at the Olympics.
    Then why did you say before that if Maria Butyrskaya were a much better skater she could have won Olympic gold at the age of 29, and criticized her for being unable to do so?

  2. #32
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    Caro is more likely to upset Kim for the Gold. Stars must be aligned for her to skate clean. Can you imagine the kind of PCS she would get if skated clean.
    Mao won't get the same PCS to be competitive with the two. She would have to rely on jumps. And she's not amazing in the jump department.

    I hope Caro can pull out a win. I don't mind the other two winning, either.

  3. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by FlattFan View Post
    Caro is more likely to upset Kim for the Gold. Stars must be aligned for her to skate clean. Can you imagine the kind of PCS she would get if skated clean.
    Mao won't get the same PCS to be competitive with the two. She would have to rely on jumps. And she's not amazing in the jump department.

    I hope Caro can pull out a win. I don't mind the other two winning, either.
    Even if Caro had skated clean this season, she still would not have beaten Yuna because her BV is not quite high enough. Caro needs to skate clean a higher BV program to beat Yuna next season. She needs a second lutz or flip in her FP.

    Mao, if she were to skate clean an eight-triple program, would get the same PCS as Yuna and Caro, though if she were clean, she would not even need it to beat both Yuna and Caro because her BV is 10 points higher.

    Mao is not just about jumps, actually. Her skating and spins have vastly improved under Mr. Sato. Her spiral was and is the best of these three (that was the one element that she beat Yuna even in Vancouver). Her step sequence is better than Yuna's and equal to or better than Caro's. She has always had the best lines and stretch of the three. The other strength that Mao has is her stamina. Mao has always had the ability to maintain her stamina throughout a program, and this season, she had two difficult combination jumps in the second-half of her FP which she completed quite successfully. Also, Mao is really quite strong mentally. Mr. Sato and Japanese commentators have remarked that she usually does better in competition than in practice.

    The only thing that is holding back Mao now, I believe, is that she still has not quite mastered the new technique on her more difficult jumps, namely, 3-axel, flip and lutz. If she can become more comfortable with these three jumps, and it is very possible that she will by Sochi, she can get gold.

  4. #34
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    I think Kostner would have a good chance of beating Kim, if she would be able to be more consistent in her programmes. And the only way to become really consistent, is to skate run-throughs again, again, again, etc..... Unfortunately I have gotten the impression from her past interviews that skating run-throughs repeatedly is not somethink she is willing to do.

  5. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by hurrah View Post
    The only thing that is holding back Mao now, I believe, is that she still has not quite mastered the new technique on her more difficult jumps, namely, 3-axel, flip and lutz. If she can become more comfortable with these three jumps, and it is very possible that she will by Sochi, she can get gold.
    I think she can make a lock for silver, but she really will need an 8 triple program if Kim goes clean. Mao really needs to get a handle on her 3F and 3L -- it's supposed to be a go-to jump for her and she's missed both several times this season, particularly her flip has UR issues. Obviously she no longer 13, but I find she doesn't have that same snap in her jumps that she had before. I'm amazed that her 3A is back. I feel really bad about her lutz still getting flutz calls when she's made such an effort to try to mitigate that, while most flutzers just accept it and don't bother changing their technique (I mean, a well-executed flutz still pulls in over 5 points). Her 3S is another jump I commend her on getting a handle of.

    The first few GP events will be really telling. If Mao skates how she did at the start of this season, I would fear for her come the Olympics. Hopefully a strong SP at 4CC and getting back on the World podium are the boosts she needed to peak again at the Olympics.

  6. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by hurrah View Post
    The only thing that is holding back Mao now, I believe, is that she still has not quite mastered the new technique on her more difficult jumps, namely, 3-axel, flip and lutz. If she can become more comfortable with these three jumps, and it is very possible that she will by Sochi, she can get gold.
    Mastering the three most difficult jumps in ladies figure skating is a pretty tall order

  7. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by jaylee View Post
    Looking back at the past 20 or so years, I am trying to think of ladies skaters who went to multiple Olympics and improved upon their previous placements in a substantial way. Off the top of my head, the notable ones are Sasha in 2006 vs 2002, Shizuka in 2006 vs. 1998 and Irina in 2002 vs. 1998, but none had really started to come into their own at their first Olympics and were not favorites there. If you look at Olympic medalists who went to multiple Olympics as favorites/medal contenders, their second performance was usually worse than their first--Irina (2006 vs. 2002), Michelle (2002 vs. 1998), Lu Chen (well, same bronze medal in 1998 vs. 1994, but she was VERY lucky to get that bronze medal in 1998 considering she wasn't the skater she used to be). Only Nancy Kerrigan improved on her placement from 1992 to the 1994 Olympics, and that surely must have had to do with the short 2-year break in between the Olympics. And I guess you'd have to go back to Sjoukje Dijkstra and Carol Heiss to find skaters who medaled at their first Olympics (non-gold) and then followed it up with a gold at their next.

    So, I do think it's interesting that veteran world champions like Michelle Kwan and Irina Slutskaya and others had their best Olympic performances the first time they went as a favorite/top contender versus the second time. I think Kostner can break this trend and get a medal on her third time, but it'd be unprecedented if she got gold. Of course, anything can happen and I'm sure next season will be full of excitement.
    This is what I've been doing for the past weeks - analyzing whether there's some kind of a pattern in olympic medallists.
    Interesting thought here, thanks for it.

    What is important in my opinion is that Yuna somehow already reached what she is capable of and I don't see where could she improve, except for adding 3L and performing a 7-triple program, that she's probably not planning to do. Her GOE's and PCS are so high there is little room to improve so we can say her ultimate best is around 150 points. When it comes to Caro and Mao I know they rarely if ever perform a clean long but the potential is higher. All posters said Mao has massive BV if executed correctly (the only mistake being the flutz). She almost reached 135 even with multiple slight errors so there's a lot of room where she can improve. Based on potential only, she could outscore Kim in both SP and FS. Same with Kostner - there is potential, she has as good jump quality as Kim, her PCS were even higher in the SP. I doubt she could come close to 150, her only mistakes were the 3S and 3L, maximum 8 additional points? 10? That's still far from 150. She is also less likely to beat Kim in the SP with her current jump layout.

    Pangtongfan pointed it out nicely, that there's a difference in questions - 1.who is more likely to upset Kin and win gold and who is more likely to take the silver and my opinion is the same as his/her. Mao is probably closer to beating Kim, but Kostner has an edge over Mao when it comes to skating for silver, though it seems to be illogical. Still, there's one more improtant factor - Carolina has had kind of meltdowns at olympics, this can happen again.

    As much as I admire Yuna for all her greatness, talent, sacrifies she had to make and everything, she already got her gold. I just feel like "Oh please Kim, let someone else feel what it's like!" (and let it be Mao PLEASE)

  8. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by cheerio2 View Post
    Mastering the three most difficult jumps in ladies figure skating is a pretty tall order
    Well, it's not like Mao has 0% consistency in these jumps. Mao said sometime around 4CC that her success rate in practice in completing all her jump passes successfully in her free program was 30%. So it's not so much mastery that is the issue for Mao but consistency.

    We have already seen Mao execute a beautiful 3-axel once in competition (4CC SP) and even more beautiful fully, fully rotated 3-axels in recent practice clips, as well as beautiful fully-rotated 3-flips with great height and flow in practice clips and also in exhibitions. The only thing we have not seen is a completely successful 3-lutz in competition (but she can probably win with a very good flutz as long her flip and axel are good).

    So I think it's a question of consistency. Please! Consistency!!

  9. #39
    Huge Scott Moir Fan Macassar88's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Krislite View Post
    I concede it's a possibility, but so is Mao going 100% clean with her 8-triple layout. A 100% clean Mao is more likely to outscore a clean Yuna than Carolina, because of the massive base value.

    We're not sure what Yuna will do for next season either. She's most likely to stick with her current layout, but there's no reason she can't increase her own technical content. She's done it before for Vancouver. She changed her combo from 3F+3T to 3Lz+3T and made her solo 3Lz her last triple jump. Granted, these have no impact under CoP, but as far as impressing the judges, I think they went a long way.
    What if she switches the 3S-2T for a 3F-2t? That's an extra point and a bit.

  10. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cherryy View Post

    Pangtongfan pointed it out nicely, that there's a difference in questions - 1.who is more likely to upset Kin and win gold and who is more likely to take the silver and my opinion is the same as his/her. Mao is probably closer to beating Kim, but Kostner has an edge over Mao when it comes to skating for silver, though it seems to be illogical. Still, there's one more improtant factor - Carolina has had kind of meltdowns at olympics, this can happen again.

    As much as I admire Yuna for all her greatness, talent, sacrifies she had to make and everything, she already got her gold. I just feel like "Oh please Kim, let someone else feel what it's like!" (and let it be Mao PLEASE)
    Your last paragraph very much echoes my frame of mind. I'd love for Mao to have a gold because I just adore her skating. But if YuNa wins, it will be because she's still the extraordinary skater she was in 2010, and it will be well deserved.

    I love Hurrah's description of Mao (post 676) in terms of her skating quality, her stamina, and her mental toughness. Those are the aspects of her that I've always seen, and which make me admire her so much. (Add to that her musicality, expressiveness, ankles-down excellence, beautiful arms, and a number of other details.) I have faith that she'll keep going until she gets to where she needs to be, and I'd love for her to make it to the top of the podium.

  11. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by hurrah
    So I think it's a question of consistency. Please! Consistency!!
    True.

    Quote Originally Posted by Macassar88
    What if she switches the 3S-2T for a 3F-2t? That's an extra point and a bit.
    I feel like Yuna will keep her current layout. The 3F is probably the jump that has historically given her the most trouble, so I doubt she will risk doing two 3Fs for an extra point when she has never done so in her LP before. I think she just needs to skate her current layout clean.

  12. #42
    Six Point Zero Krislite's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cherryy View Post
    As much as I admire Yuna for all her greatness, talent, sacrifies she had to make and everything, she already got her gold. I just feel like "Oh please Kim, let someone else feel what it's like!" (and let it be Mao PLEASE)
    I don't get this mentality. She's not depriving anyone of a gold medal. The OGM is open to anyone who skates the best during the games. Should we blame Michelle Kwan for depriving a generation of skaters of a world title? How greedy she took five world titles and nine national titles for herself instead of sharing the wealth!

  13. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by hurrah View Post
    Also, Mao is really quite strong mentally. Mr. Sato and Japanese commentators have remarked that she usually does better in competition than in practice.
    If anything, I think that speaks to her lack of competition mettle. Mao has never been the most consistent skater, and it's unfortunate that her other qualities (lines, stretch, carriage, etc.) are not (really) rewarded in the current scoring system.

  14. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by Krislite View Post
    I don't get this mentality. She's not depriving anyone of a gold medal. The OGM is open to anyone who skates the best during the games. Should we blame Michelle Kwan for depriving a generation of skaters of a world title? How greedy she took five world titles and nine national titles for herself instead of sharing the wealth!
    I agree. I know people want other skaters to claim Olympic gold, but they really should earn it. I don't think Mao would appreciate Yu Na being like, "Here Mao, I'll step aside you can have a clear shot at winning". A win against Yu Na would be far more satisfying (and be a "better" win) for her.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    Then why did you say before that if Maria Butyrskaya were a much better skater she could have won Olympic gold at the age of 29, and criticized her for being unable to do so?
    Your reading skills deficit is not my problem. I said Maria became a contender for the first time and was entering her prime at 23 (95-96 season) vs Arakawa at 23, so Maria had just as many chances to achieve things as Shizuka did, if she were good enough to. Instead one year after coming a breakthrough 4th at Worlds at 23, she dropped to 5th at Worlds at 24 in a poor year for womens skating as a 14 year old went from 15th in the World to 1st, proceded to lose the Olympic bronze with a poor skate to the 25th place finisher from the 97 Worlds, then following her World title needing only an adequate 6 triple program to defend her title failed to even produce that and dropped from 1st to 3rd after the SP. In contrast to Shizuka who 2 years after her breakthrough World title at 23 (just as Maria became a contender for the first time at the exact same age as Shizuka- 23, but unlike Shizuka was not good enough to win a World title in her breakthrough year as a contender at 23, only to take 4th place) with one of the technically strongest and most complete performances in ladies history, went on to easily become the Olympic Champion as well (at 25, the same age Maria choked as usual, and skated a poor long program with only 2 solid triples to miss out on the bronze medal to the World #25). I mentioned the years she was a contender BEFORE her World title, and to a lesser degree the 1 or 2 years (aka the 99-2000 and 2000-2001 seasons after) were the years she could have done something bigger IF she were as good a skater as Shizuka or a good enough skater to do so. I NEVER said a single about the 2002 Olympics or implied she should have won the gold or been a contender to win the gold there, but as usual you read what you want to read. Everyone has already agreed with me that Shizuka >>> Butyrskaya as a skater, even Shizuka's detractors in that thread conceding so, and your long string of ideas and failed arguments in that thread were shot down by all; so just give it up already, and go back to whining about Chan not being respected as the next Yagudin or something in the Chan thread or actually stick to the discussion point in THIS thread, rather than bringing your dirty laundry and apparent issues with me into a new thread that has nothing to do with Shizuka or Maria.

    Maria was also a very late bloomer, not a former teen phenom who could have won the Olympics at 16 without the stupid ages rules of today, like Asada.

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