Who can rival Kim in Sochi: Asada or Kostner? | Page 5 | Golden Skate

Who can rival Kim in Sochi: Asada or Kostner?

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Krislite

Medalist
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Sep 22, 2010
There is really no one who can challenge a clean Kim. I believe Carolina Kostner comes closest--if she skates clean & Yuna makes a major mistake. Otherwise I don't see another real challenge at Sochi, but ice is slippery and Olympiads play head tricks! Just think Ladies' 1998 (Michelle a shoo-in, but Tara won); 2002 (Michelle again, or Irina, but Sarah with the skate of a lifetime); 2006 (likely Sasha, but Arakawa instead); 2010 (Yuna, & Yuna won!). So, a one in four odds that the favorite will win? Not the best odds. The post-figures era of Figure Skating (with perhaps the current judging system thrown in) really complicates prediction-making in closely contested races. However, barring a Kim injury, or poorly-chosen programs, I don't forsee the 2014 Ladies' FS Olympics event as being closely contested.

From a broader view going way back before the end of figures, it's actually the case that favorites are very likely to win--in particular, it's extremely likely for the reigning world champion to win the Olympics. Michelle Kwan and Irina Slutskaya were the outliers. Michelle really blew it at 2002 SLC Games. (Likewise for Irina in Torino.) Tara was not the biggest favorite but she was nevertheless the reigning World champ. The reigning world champ can be said to be the "judges' favorite" (as opposed to the audience/media), and from this perspective favorites very often win. Of the 20 Olympic champions in ladies figure skating since 1908, only FOUR were not reigning world champs when they won: Anett Potzsch, Dorothy Hamill, Sarah Hughes and Shizuka Arakawa.
 

hurrah

Medalist
Joined
Aug 8, 2009
Yuna is the favorite to win because she is the one most likely to skate clean. Mao is the least likely to skate clean given her crazy jump layout and because she has changed so much technically that one has to wonder how stable it is. However, if Yuna, Caro and Mao all skate clean, Mao would win, Yuna would come second and Caro third.
 

Nadia01

Final Flight
Joined
Nov 10, 2009
Yuna is the favorite to win because she is the one most likely to skate clean. Mao is the least likely to skate clean given her crazy jump layout and because she has changed so much technically that one has to wonder how stable it is. However, if Yuna, Caro and Mao all skate clean, Mao would win, Yuna would come second and Caro third.

Yuna & Mao did skate very clean shorts together (Vancouver) when they went back-to-back, with Mao going 1st, then Yuna. The judges placed Yuna higher than Mao there. So there's no guarantee that a clean Mao is going to beat Yuna for certain.
 

hurrah

Medalist
Joined
Aug 8, 2009
Yuna & Mao did skate very clean shorts together (Vancouver) when they went back-to-back, with Mao going 1st, then Yuna. The judges placed Yuna higher than Mao there. So there's no guarantee that a clean Mao is going to beat Yuna for certain.

Mao is a different skater now compared to how she was at Vancouver, so predictions based on Vancouver are not necessarily accurate.

Hypothetically speaking, a clean Mao would certainly beat Yuna because Mao's base value in FP is higher than Yuna by 10 points. A hypothetically clean Mao would hypothetically get positive GOEs and therefore good PCS to match so if Mao went clean, Yuna could skate to her max and she still would not win.

Even in the short, a hypothetically clean Mao will beat a hypothetically clean Yuna. Krislite I think calculated Yuna's maxed out SP score and it's 77 (calculated based on 9.5 average in all PCS categories). Mao without 3-3 scored 74.49 and that's not hypothetical. A hypothetically clean Mao would not only have a clean 3-axel and 3-3 but all level 4 spins (Mao's 74.49 did not include 3-3 and all level 4) so she ought to be able to beat 77.

Now, whether or not Mao could match the hypothetical score is another matter. Maybe one in ten chance....
 

Bartek

On the Ice
Joined
Dec 29, 2009
Yuna & Mao did skate very clean shorts together (Vancouver) when they went back-to-back, with Mao going 1st, then Yuna. The judges placed Yuna higher than Mao there. So there's no guarantee that a clean Mao is going to beat Yuna for certain.

But the rules were different back. Mao had use her triple axel as a combination losing about 5 points.

Vancouver: 3A+2T, 3F, 2A
Sochi: 3A, 3F+2Lo, 3Lo

Big difference to Mao's advantage. Clean Mao got the highest score this year, over 74. Clean Yu-Na at Worlds got 70. Clean Caro would get around 70 as well. Mao has the edge owing to her more difficult technical content.
 

jaylee

Medalist
Joined
Feb 21, 2010
This whole thread is the wrong question. The question that should be asked RE: Mao and Caro is: "Are their poidum places safe?" That answer is, on the whole, a resounding NO. Between a Russian, Gold, Zijun, and even Murakami and Wagner.... they're going to have to produce to podium. (Which Yu-Na is going to have to do as well, but I feel much more secure in what Yu-Na can produce than what Kostner and Mao can produce, but what do I know?)

I suppose that leads to another interesting questions--who of the "young guns" is the most likely to upset a veteran and get on the podium at the 2014 Olympics?

But the rules were different back. Mao had use her triple axel as a combination losing about 5 points.

Vancouver: 3A+2T, 3F, 2A
Sochi: 3A, 3F+2Lo, 3Lo

Big difference to Mao's advantage. Clean Mao got the highest score this year, over 74. Clean Yu-Na at Worlds got 70. Clean Caro would get around 70 as well. Mao has the edge owing to her more difficult technical content.

Yes, the rule change allowing the triple axel as the solo jump in the SP gives Mao a tremendous advantage, particularly since she does not have a consistent 3/3.

However, as Worlds proved, even a ratified 3A with +GOE can't make up for other mistakes. It'll be interesting to see what Mao's strategy is at the beginning of the season. This season, she omitted the 3A during the GP, and I think that was a smart decision as it paid off in her most successful GP season of this quad.

Same for Carolina, she typically adds the difficult elements as the season goes on. However, in an Olympic season, the skaters are under a microscope from the beginning of the season.

As for Yu-Na, she got an edge call in the SP at Worlds that she didn't get in the FS. Take away the edge call and give her +GOE for her flip, and her score will go up a few points. She will likely get higher PCS for a more audience-friendly program like her James Bond SP versus Kiss of the Vampire.
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
Mao is a different skater now compared to how she was at Vancouver, so predictions based on Vancouver are not necessarily accurate.

Hypothetically speaking, a clean Mao would certainly beat Yuna because Mao's base value in FP is higher than Yuna by 10 points. A hypothetically clean Mao would hypothetically get positive GOEs and therefore good PCS to match

Even a clean Mao will get lower GOE and lower PCS than a clean Kostner and a clean Kim. Whether it would be enough to compensate the base value difference I am not sure, but you seem to be under the impression a clean Mao would easily match Kostner and Kim in GOE and PCS, and all evidence is this is not the case. Her jumps are much lower quality even landed than theirs are and rightfully get lower GOE, and even some of her other elements often are lower, and her PCS have consistently been lower than Kim since 2009 and Kostner since 2011 now, regardles of performance (aka when they make more mistakes or glaring mistakes than she does, they are higher).

Your basing scores on an event in Japan is flawed since Mao always scores higher in Japan than she will elsewhere for comparable mistakes. A hypothetical of Mao averaging 9.5s in PCS is also flawed as this will not happen (especialy outside of Japan).
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
From a broader view going way back before the end of figures, it's actually the case that favorites are very likely to win--in particular, it's extremely likely for the reigning world champion to win the Olympics. Michelle Kwan and Irina Slutskaya were the outliers. Michelle really blew it at 2002 SLC Games. (Likewise for Irina in Torino.) Tara was not the biggest favorite but she was nevertheless the reigning World champ. The reigning world champ can be said to be the "judges' favorite" (as opposed to the audience/media), and from this perspective favorites very often win. Of the 20 Olympic champions in ladies figure skating since 1908, only FOUR were not reigning world champs when they won: Anett Potzsch, Dorothy Hamill, Sarah Hughes and Shizuka Arakawa.

This is true. Looking at just more modern times, post World War 11 years:

1952- favorite won
1956- favorite won
1960- favorite won
1964- favorite won
1968- favorite won
1972- favorite won
1976- despite not being World Champion, Hamill was considered by most as favorite going in and won
1980- co-favorite won, Fratianne was World Champion but Poetzsch had always been her big rival and lost 79 Worlds to her only due to a very poor performance, and after Fratianne did poorly at her Nationals, no surprise Poetzsch won.
1984- favorite probably won really. Sumners was World Champion, but Witt had improved her figures and won the combined free skating at the last 2 Worlds, so Sumners was always in trouble, especialy after a mediocre season and Nationals.
1988- favorite won.
1992- co-favorite won, Yamaguchi was World Champ but co favored with Ito (and maybe Harding) going in.
1994- favorite won.
1998- Kwan was probably favored, but Tara was reigning World Champion and won.
2002- big surprise.
2006- minor surprise.
2010- favorite won.
 

zschultz1986

Final Flight
Joined
Mar 18, 2013
There is really no one who can challenge a clean Kim. I believe Carolina Kostner comes closest--if she skates clean & Yuna makes a major mistake. Otherwise I don't see another real challenge at Sochi, but ice is slippery and Olympiads play head tricks! Just think Ladies' 1998 (Michelle a shoo-in, but Tara won); 2002 (Michelle again, or Irina, but Sarah with the skate of a lifetime); 2006 (likely Sasha, but Arakawa instead); 2010 (Yuna, & Yuna won!). So, a one in four odds that the favorite will win? Not the best odds. The post-figures era of Figure Skating (with perhaps the current judging system thrown in) really complicates prediction-making in closely contested races. However, barring a Kim injury, or poorly-chosen programs, I don't forsee the 2014 Ladies' FS Olympics event as being closely contested.

I agree there is no one who can challenge a clean Kim... yet. I still think someone who is not Mao or Caro could challenge her technically, but whole package-wise, YuNa is the Queen. Michelle.... really is a case study on her own. She produced OGM worthy skates in 98. Sure we can nitpick and say they were slow and tentative and really didn't have the A+++ presentation that she had in Nationals, but she didn't lose the title, IMO, she was beaten, which is different. In 2002, she DID lose the title. They were ready to hand her that OGM on a silver platter had she skated clean, and she didn't. It was a culmination of a lot of choices and changes she had made in the year prior. Frank Carroll looms large. I bet you any money the flip problem would have been rectified had she had Frank. Alas, that flip will live in my heart and mind forever.

Yu-Na is a case all her own too. She really was the one to watch from 2007-2010. Sure, Others won the WC (and rightfully so), but she really was the one who could have won in 07 and 08, but she had injuries and she had mistakes in her LPs. Really, she could have won both Ando's AND Mao's first world titles and been the three time reigning WC going into Vancouver... However, She came out like gangbusters in 2009 when she was FINALLY healthy for a full season, and rode that wave of Yu-Na Crack all the way to Vancouver. We compare Yu-Na to Kwan, but I don't think they are similar at all, other than being the Queens of their respective eras.

From a broader view going way back before the end of figures, it's actually the case that favorites are very likely to win--in particular, it's extremely likely for the reigning world champion to win the Olympics. Michelle Kwan and Irina Slutskaya were the outliers. Michelle really blew it at 2002 SLC Games. (Likewise for Irina in Torino.) Tara was not the biggest favorite but she was nevertheless the reigning World champ. The reigning world champ can be said to be the "judges' favorite" (as opposed to the audience/media), and from this perspective favorites very often win. Of the 20 Olympic champions in ladies figure skating since 1908, only FOUR were not reigning world champs when they won: Anett Potzsch, Dorothy Hamill, Sarah Hughes and Shizuka Arakawa.

And, though Dorothy won a World Championship after that OGM, she was a two-time world silver medalist before it. When you look at the OGMs in aggregate, Sarah Hughes really is the biggest outlier of them all: She never won her Nationals in her career, she never won Worlds in her career, was only a Bronze medalist once, and yet she's the OGM. Sarah Hughes really did pull that long program out of her butt, and combined with the American Home Cooking, the judging scandal, and rough outings from the three above her, she was in the right place at the right time, with the right performance.
 

Nadia01

Final Flight
Joined
Nov 10, 2009
Mao is a different skater now compared to how she was at Vancouver, so predictions based on Vancouver are not necessarily accurate.

Hypothetically speaking, a clean Mao would certainly beat Yuna because Mao's base value in FP is higher than Yuna by 10 points. A hypothetically clean Mao would hypothetically get positive GOEs and therefore good PCS to match so if Mao went clean, Yuna could skate to her max and she still would not win.

Even in the short, a hypothetically clean Mao will beat a hypothetically clean Yuna. Krislite I think calculated Yuna's maxed out SP score and it's 77 (calculated based on 9.5 average in all PCS categories). Mao without 3-3 scored 74.49 and that's not hypothetical. A hypothetically clean Mao would not only have a clean 3-axel and 3-3 but all level 4 spins (Mao's 74.49 did not include 3-3 and all level 4) so she ought to be able to beat 77.

Now, whether or not Mao could match the hypothetical score is another matter. Maybe one in ten chance....

That assumes that Mao's elements, esp. jumps, are on par with Yuna in terms of transition in & out, height, distance, speed going in, and possibly delayed. I don't see that happening. I actually think Caro's & Yuna's jumps are superior to Mao's, and even when Mao lands her jumps, they don't make the kind of wow moments the way Yuna's & Caro's do.
 

zschultz1986

Final Flight
Joined
Mar 18, 2013
This is true. Looking at just more modern times, post World War 11 years:

1952- favorite won
1956- favorite won
1960- favorite won
1964- favorite won
1968- favorite won
1972- favorite won
1976- despite not being World Champion, Hamill was considered by most as favorite going in and won
1980- co-favorite won, Fratianne was World Champion but Poetzsch had always been her big rival and lost 79 Worlds to her only due to a very poor performance, and after Fratianne did poorly at her Nationals, no surprise Poetzsch won.
1984- favorite probably won really. Sumners was World Champion, but Witt had improved her figures and won the combined free skating at the last 2 Worlds, so Sumners was always in trouble, especialy after a mediocre season and Nationals.
1988- favorite won.
1992- co-favorite won, Yamaguchi was World Champ but co favored with Ito (and maybe Harding) going in.
1994- favorite won.
1998- Kwan was probably favored, but Tara was reigning World Champion and won.
2002- big surprise.
2006- minor surprise.
2010- favorite won.


If you do it with the Men, the interesting thing to note is that, Since 1976.... Only two people have won the OGM being the reigning World Champion. Scott Hamilton, and Evan Lysacek. Hopefully, the trend of Reigning World Champs for the Men not winning OGM will continue next year in Sochi. :laugh:
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
If you do it with the Men, the interesting thing to note is that, Since 1976.... Only two people have won the OGM being the reigning World Champion. Scott Hamilton, and Evan Lysacek. Hopefully, the trend of Reigning World Champs for the Men not winning OGM will continue next year in Sochi. :laugh:

Yes hopefully that is one trend that will continue (although most all of us hoped it would continue in 2010 and it didnt, blech). One funny thing for the men though is the reigning WC is usually not the favorite:

1994- Browning was probably not the favorite with a bad season, losing Nationals, and his old rival Petrenko being back and having won all his events that season, and Stojko on fire that season and already beating Browning, (Boitano back too but he wasnt favored).
1998- Kulik became the favorite once he beat Stojko at the GP final.
2002- Yagudin was favored. Plushenko was injured and missed Europeans, after already losing the GP final to Yagudin.
2006- Plushenko was the huge favorite, no question. Lambiel was very distant 2nd.
2010- I dont think anyone really thought Evan was the favorite.

So for the men in recent times it makes sense the WC usually doesnt win, as they usually arent supposed to anyway.

The last time the reigning World Champion was favored was Orser in 1988 and maybe injured Browning in 1992.
 

hurrah

Medalist
Joined
Aug 8, 2009
Even a clean Mao will get lower GOE and lower PCS than a clean Kostner and a clean Kim. Whether it would be enough to compensate the base value difference I am not sure, but you seem to be under the impression a clean Mao would easily match Kostner and Kim in GOE and PCS, and all evidence is this is not the case. Her jumps are much lower quality even landed than theirs are and rightfully get lower GOE, and even some of her other elements often are lower, and her PCS have consistently been lower than Kim since 2009 and Kostner since 2011 now, regardles of performance (aka when they make more mistakes or glaring mistakes than she does, they are higher).

Your basing scores on an event in Japan is flawed since Mao always scores higher in Japan than she will elsewhere for comparable mistakes. A hypothetical of Mao averaging 9.5s in PCS is also flawed as this will not happen (especialy outside of Japan).

I think Mao scored well at 4CC because it was one of the last competitions of the season, and she has been progressively improving throughout the season. Yes, her SP score at Worlds was bad because she messed up, but she did score her season's best FP score at Worlds, so it was not because the competition was held in Japan that her SP score was high but because her skating improved.

The average 9.5 PCS was mentioned in context of Yuna's hypothetical maximum short score, which would be 77. Mao scored 74.49 with PCS average of 8.466.

Regarding GOEs, yes, one cannot predict that Mao would match Yuna's and Caro's GOEs even on table, but it is also worth mentioning that there were some jump elements where Mao's GOEs basically matched Yuna and Caro at Worlds: namely salchow and 2A+3T. With spins on GOEs, Mao is a bit hit and miss, but it is my understanding that Mao cut back on practicing her spins this season, and so it is realistic to expect her to get equivalent GOEs on spins next season. Also, Mao will get better or equal GOEs on steps and spiral sequence than these two.

So Mao so far has failed to get GOEs on three elements: 3axel, 3flip and 3lutz. So it is not as if Mao has to improve on many, many elements from here to Sochi. Just these three elements, and she has been improving steadily so it is reasonable to predict that she will make some improvements from here to Sochi on these elements. Of course, we cannot expect Mao's GOEs to be better than Yuna's and Caro's toe jumps, but if she can just stop under-rotating them, we can expect her to get at least +1 GOEs, which is feasible.

Regarding PCS, comparing PCS of Worlds FP, Mao's average was 8.55, Caro's 8.8 and Yuna's 9.2. Mao was very hesitant in the first minute and had under-rotations and wrong edge, so if she were to skate fairly clean from the beginning of next season, I think her PCS will go up.

Yuna's maximum score I think ought to be 77 for SP and 150 for FP, meaning we are looking for a skater who can score above 227. Combining Mao's best scores this season, she scored 208. This 208 precludes a 3-3 in both short and long and includes a double-footed 3axel, two under-rotation calls, one wrong edge call, a loop without the GOE that she is capable of and an inclusion of a 2loop instead of a 3loop. If she can have 3-3 in both short and long, do a clean 3axel in both short and long, get rid of her under-rotations calls, and put in two 3loops instead of one, I think she can score another 20 points.

Well... it is a long shot, but it's not impossible. If Mao can bring up the quality of her 3axel, 3flip and hopefully 3lutz during the off season, she has a chance.
 

ForeverFish

Medalist
Joined
Aug 21, 2012
But the rules were different back. Mao had use her triple axel as a combination losing about 5 points.

Vancouver: 3A+2T, 3F, 2A
Sochi: 3A, 3F+2Lo, 3Lo

Big difference to Mao's advantage. Clean Mao got the highest score this year, over 74. Clean Yu-Na at Worlds got 70. Clean Caro would get around 70 as well. Mao has the edge owing to her more difficult technical content.

Yuna wasn't clean at Worlds. She got the edge call on her 3F, and made a visible mistake on the flying camel spin.
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
I think Mao scored well at 4CC because it was one of the last competitions of the season, and she has been progressively improving throughout the season. Yes, her SP score at Worlds was bad because she messed up, but she did score her season's best FP score at Worlds, so it was not because the competition was held in Japan that her SP score was high but because her skating improved.

The average 9.5 PCS was mentioned in context of Yuna's hypothetical maximum short score, which would be 77. Mao scored 74.49 with PCS average of 8.466.

Regarding GOEs, yes, one cannot predict that Mao would match Yuna's and Caro's GOEs even on table, but it is also worth mentioning that there were some jump elements where Mao's GOEs basically matched Yuna and Caro at Worlds: namely salchow and 2A+3T. With spins on GOEs, Mao is a bit hit and miss, but it is my understanding that Mao cut back on practicing her spins this season, and so it is realistic to expect her to get equivalent GOEs on spins next season. Also, Mao will get better or equal GOEs on steps and spiral sequence than these two.

So Mao so far has failed to get GOEs on three elements: 3axel, 3flip and 3lutz. So it is not as if Mao has to improve on many, many elements from here to Sochi. Just these three elements, and she has been improving steadily so it is reasonable to predict that she will make some improvements from here to Sochi on these elements. Of course, we cannot expect Mao's GOEs to be better than Yuna's and Caro's toe jumps, but if she can just stop under-rotating them, we can expect her to get at least +1 GOEs, which is feasible.

Regarding PCS, comparing PCS of Worlds FP, Mao's average was 8.55, Caro's 8.8 and Yuna's 9.2. Mao was very hesitant in the first minute and had under-rotations and wrong edge, so if she were to skate fairly clean from the beginning of next season, I think her PCS will go up.

Yuna's maximum score I think ought to be 77 for SP and 150 for FP, meaning we are looking for a skater who can score above 227. Combining Mao's best scores this season, she scored 208. This 208 precludes a 3-3 in both short and long and includes a double-footed 3axel, two under-rotation calls, one wrong edge call and a loop without the GOE that she is capable of. If she can have 3-3 in both short and long, do a clean 3axel in both short and long and get rid of her under-rotations calls, I think she can score another 20 points.

Well... it is a long shot, but it's not impossible. If Mao can bring up the quality of her 3axel, 3flip and hopefully 3lutz during the off season, she has a chance.

Valid points. I still do agree Mao is the bigger threat to upset Kim for the OGM (I gave her more shot than Kostner at that, but Kostner more shot at winning the silver, and Asada more shot at dropping off the podium than Kostner) as her huge base value is the kind of thing one needs to beat Kim. I think Kostner had a shot this season, but she needed to keep her status as World Champion and she didnt, and I dont think she will next year with Kim likely regaining all her momentum with the judges. Kostner doesnt have a higher base value than Kim which after Kims commanding victory at the 2013 Worlds will be needed IMO, and while she can match or come the cloest to Kim of anyone in GOE and PCS, I dont think anywhere she would actually be able to get ahead without a higher base value, and that plus Kim is the more likely of the two to skate clean. Mao with her huge base value is the one with a more fighting chance (albeit still slim) to get ahead of Kim, as a clean skate or almost clean competition , with good enough GOEs and a good program and good PCS, could do it with her difficulty.
 

Jaana

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 27, 2003
Country
Finland
If you do it with the Men, the interesting thing to note is that, Since 1976.... Only two people have won the OGM being the reigning World Champion. Scott Hamilton, and Evan Lysacek. Hopefully, the trend of Reigning World Champs for the Men not winning OGM will continue next year in Sochi.

But on the other hand in men every reigning WC from USA has won the gold medal at the Olympics so far. It is only the Canadians, Russians and Swiss who are affected with that trend of not winning.... So, there is a big possibility that your wish will become true.
 

ForeverFish

Medalist
Joined
Aug 21, 2012
If you do it with the Men, the interesting thing to note is that, Since 1976.... Only two people have won the OGM being the reigning World Champion. Scott Hamilton, and Evan Lysacek. Hopefully, the trend of Reigning World Champs for the Men not winning OGM will continue next year in Sochi. :laugh:

I wouldn't mind Chan winning in Sochi, if he EARNS it.
 

zschultz1986

Final Flight
Joined
Mar 18, 2013
Yuna wasn't clean at Worlds. She got the edge call on her 3F, and made a visible mistake on the flying camel spin.

True and good students/competitors will definitely look at those things and fix them (Which Yu-Na is.) However, I think her 3F looks about as good, technique-wise, as I have ever seen it.

Valid points.   I still do agree Mao is the bigger threat to upset Kim for the OGM (I gave her more shot than Kostner at that, but Kostner more shot at winning the silver, and Asada more shot at dropping off the podium than Kostner) as her huge base value is the kind of thing one needs to beat Kim.     I think Kostner had a shot this season, but she needed to keep her status as World Champion and she didnt, and I dont think she will next year with Kim likely regaining all her momentum with the judges.   Kostner doesnt have a higher base value than Kim which after Kims commanding victory at the 2013 Worlds will be needed IMO, and while she can match or come the cloest to Kim of anyone in GOE and PCS, I dont think anywhere she would actually be able to get ahead without a higher base value, and that plus Kim is the more likely of the two to skate clean.    Mao with her huge base value is the one with a more fighting chance (albeit still slim) to get ahead of Kim, as a clean skate or almost clean competition , with good enough GOEs and a good program and good PCS, could do it with her difficulty.

Totally agree with the assessment that Mao has a wider range (1*-5) of placements than Koster (prolly 2-3/4)

*That is even iffy though... I honestly, in my heart or hearts, don't think anyone is touching Yu-Na unless Yu-Na hands it to them. The OGM is going to be decided on Yu-Na's skates.

I wouldn't mind Chan winning in Sochi, if he EARNS it.

I know its the "right" thing to agree... but I just can't with him anymore. He a great skater... blah, blah, blah... he's a giant dbag who actually thinks he deserved the scores he got, as he stated in interview after interview post-Worlds, and said that Ten didn't walk through the door... except Ten DID walk through that doo, and the judges kicked him out. Sure, the result is out of his control, but he is the one who, instead of seeing the reality, has decided to embrace the judges narrative of him being this revolutionary skater ala John Curry... I'm sorry Chan, you'll never be Yagudin OR Curry. Chan = a Robot with Canadian Edges.
 

chuckm

Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 31, 2003
Country
United-States
So Mao so far has failed to get GOEs on three elements: 3axel, 3flip and 3lutz. So it is not as if Mao has to improve on many, many elements from here to Sochi. Just these three elements, and she has been improving steadily so it is reasonable to predict that she will make some improvements from here to Sochi on these elements. Of course, we cannot expect Mao's GOEs to be better than Yuna's and Caro's toe jumps, but if she can just stop under-rotating them, we can expect her to get at least +1 GOEs, which is feasible.

Mao has been double-footing and/or underrotating the 3a more than 60% of the time over all the years she's been attempting the 3a. She's been dinged for 3f URs at an even higher rate. She's spend years trying to improve her flutz without success. Anyone who believes she can 'cure' her two-foot, UR and edge problems over the next 10 months is sadly in denial. Two-footing jumps is sloppy skating, which keeps GOEs down. URs and flutzing keep GOE in the 0-to-negative range.

Regarding PCS, comparing PCS of Worlds FP, Mao's average was 8.55, Caro's 8.8 and Yuna's 9.2. Mao was very hesitant in the first minute and had under-rotations and wrong edge, so if she were to skate fairly clean from the beginning of next season, I think her PCS will go up.

Mao has never been confident about her 3a (with good reason) and just attempting it seems to make her feel insecure about the jumps following it. We saw that at Worlds 2013, where she URd her 3f and couldn't add the triple after it. That failure in turn caused her to be cautious with the rest of her jumps, and her tightness eased only as she entered the footwork section. As noted above, she isn't going to become fully confident and sure of her harder jumps over the next 10 months. Mao seems incapable of turning in a clean FS, and as long as that continues, she isn't going to see a rise in PCS, except possible at NHK, of course.

If Mao can't skate clean at minor events like GPs, I can't imagine her doing so at Sochi, where the stakes are huge. She didn't skate a clean FS in Vancouver (she URd the flip and singled a 3t), and that was a time when her 3a was a lot more reliable than it is now, and she wasn't getting as many URs as she has this past season.
 

Cherryy

On the Ice
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Aug 27, 2012
What I meant when I wrote that the first time Kim skated a clean LP was at the olympics was - why someone else can't do it for the first time at the Olympics? It's true Mao's success rate at many jumps is low but it's not like she can't land them at all, except for the triple flutz. If you take her best jumps she did perform this season and add them up, her score is around 147 and that is without PCS boost from a clean LP. She did not yet jumped a clean 3F-3L but she attempted it for the first time since 2009 season, she is capable of getting it back.
What I want to say is, I perfectly know Mao's chances of skating a clean LP (only with e on 3Lz) are terribly low but it's not like it's impossible. If Yuna could skate clean for the first time at the Olys, why theoretically Mao can't? Mr Sato said that the process of reworking her technique will be finished just in time for Sochi, literally.
I remember (though correct me please if I'm wrong) Mao said her success rate at clean runthroughs was around 30%? So if her success rate is 30%, even if it's 10%, why one of those skates can't be performed at the Olympics?
Back in 2009 some people would also say that Yuna seems incapable of turning in a clean FS. Now nobody doubts it, including myself.
 
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