Page 6 of 17 FirstFirst 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 ... LastLast
Results 76 to 90 of 241

Thread: Who can rival Kim in Sochi: Asada or Kostner?

  1. #76
    Custom Title Nadia01's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Posts
    921
    Quote Originally Posted by zschultz1986 View Post

    Mao Asada should have been the reigning OGM going into Vancouver. Stupid age rules.


    There's no guarantee Mao would've won OGM in Torino. She lost to Yuna at Jr Worlds that season by 24 points.

  2. #77
    Banned
    Join Date
    Jun 2010
    Posts
    4,147
    Quote Originally Posted by Nadia01 View Post
    There's no guarantee Mao would've won OGM in Torino. She lost to Yuna at Jr Worlds that season by 24 points.
    True, I always say I feel badly for Mao as I think she would have won the 2006 Olympics, but Yu Na might be going for her 3rd straight Olympic Gold as well. Of course Shizuka might have pulled out the big guns had Mao and Yu Na been there, and in which case neither would have been able to win over her at that phase of their careers.

  3. #78
    Custom Title
    Join Date
    Feb 2012
    Posts
    2,674
    Mao and Carolina need to show they can skate clean and consistently. In the case of Mao no edge calls, no UR and land that 3Axel on one foot. CArolina must get her h arder jumps and must land stuff consistently. She has a natural elegant carriage and good speed but she has trouble sometimes relating to the music. Yuna's to lose. The other girls are just not there; I thought Wagner but after this year's world's she will be battling Gold to win her nationals.

  4. #79
    Custom Title
    Join Date
    Jan 2007
    Posts
    208
    There is really no one who can challenge a clean Kim. I believe Carolina Kostner comes closest--if she skates clean & Yuna makes a major mistake. Otherwise I don't see another real challenge at Sochi, but ice is slippery and Olympiads play head tricks! Just think Ladies' 1998 (Michelle a shoo-in, but Tara won); 2002 (Michelle again, or Irina, but Sarah with the skate of a lifetime); 2006 (likely Sasha, but Arakawa instead); 2010 (Yuna, & Yuna won!). So, a one in four odds that the favorite will win? Not the best odds. The post-figures era of Figure Skating (with perhaps the current judging system thrown in) really complicates prediction-making in closely contested races. However, barring a Kim injury, or poorly-chosen programs, I don't forsee the 2014 Ladies' FS Olympics event as being closely contested.

  5. #80
    Banned
    Join Date
    Jun 2010
    Posts
    4,147
    LOL based on what was Sasha favorite for 2006. A skater who in an already long career had 0 World or Olympic titles, and couldnt even win a U.S title in a year Kwan was entered as Olympic Gold favorite. No. Maybe some Americans hyped her as the favorite to feel good about themselves but many Americans are so clueless they would have called Kwan the gold medal favorite that year had she been able to skate (ROTFL). Everyone outside the U.S knew Slutskaya was the heavy favorite, with the asterix that Asada would have been atleast co-favored with her had she been able to skate. Once people saw the practices during those Games of all the skaters though, Shizuka became the pre short program gold medal favorite though.

  6. #81
    Six Point Zero Krislite's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Location
    Yunaverse
    Posts
    1,548
    Quote Originally Posted by Eddie Lee View Post
    There is really no one who can challenge a clean Kim. I believe Carolina Kostner comes closest--if she skates clean & Yuna makes a major mistake. Otherwise I don't see another real challenge at Sochi, but ice is slippery and Olympiads play head tricks! Just think Ladies' 1998 (Michelle a shoo-in, but Tara won); 2002 (Michelle again, or Irina, but Sarah with the skate of a lifetime); 2006 (likely Sasha, but Arakawa instead); 2010 (Yuna, & Yuna won!). So, a one in four odds that the favorite will win? Not the best odds. The post-figures era of Figure Skating (with perhaps the current judging system thrown in) really complicates prediction-making in closely contested races. However, barring a Kim injury, or poorly-chosen programs, I don't forsee the 2014 Ladies' FS Olympics event as being closely contested.
    From a broader view going way back before the end of figures, it's actually the case that favorites are very likely to win--in particular, it's extremely likely for the reigning world champion to win the Olympics. Michelle Kwan and Irina Slutskaya were the outliers. Michelle really blew it at 2002 SLC Games. (Likewise for Irina in Torino.) Tara was not the biggest favorite but she was nevertheless the reigning World champ. The reigning world champ can be said to be the "judges' favorite" (as opposed to the audience/media), and from this perspective favorites very often win. Of the 20 Olympic champions in ladies figure skating since 1908, only FOUR were not reigning world champs when they won: Anett Potzsch, Dorothy Hamill, Sarah Hughes and Shizuka Arakawa.

  7. #82
    Custom Title hurrah's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2009
    Posts
    1,148
    Yuna is the favorite to win because she is the one most likely to skate clean. Mao is the least likely to skate clean given her crazy jump layout and because she has changed so much technically that one has to wonder how stable it is. However, if Yuna, Caro and Mao all skate clean, Mao would win, Yuna would come second and Caro third.

  8. #83
    Custom Title Nadia01's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Posts
    921
    Quote Originally Posted by hurrah View Post
    Yuna is the favorite to win because she is the one most likely to skate clean. Mao is the least likely to skate clean given her crazy jump layout and because she has changed so much technically that one has to wonder how stable it is. However, if Yuna, Caro and Mao all skate clean, Mao would win, Yuna would come second and Caro third.
    Yuna & Mao did skate very clean shorts together (Vancouver) when they went back-to-back, with Mao going 1st, then Yuna. The judges placed Yuna higher than Mao there. So there's no guarantee that a clean Mao is going to beat Yuna for certain.

  9. #84
    Custom Title hurrah's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2009
    Posts
    1,148
    Quote Originally Posted by Nadia01 View Post
    Yuna & Mao did skate very clean shorts together (Vancouver) when they went back-to-back, with Mao going 1st, then Yuna. The judges placed Yuna higher than Mao there. So there's no guarantee that a clean Mao is going to beat Yuna for certain.
    Mao is a different skater now compared to how she was at Vancouver, so predictions based on Vancouver are not necessarily accurate.

    Hypothetically speaking, a clean Mao would certainly beat Yuna because Mao's base value in FP is higher than Yuna by 10 points. A hypothetically clean Mao would hypothetically get positive GOEs and therefore good PCS to match so if Mao went clean, Yuna could skate to her max and she still would not win.

    Even in the short, a hypothetically clean Mao will beat a hypothetically clean Yuna. Krislite I think calculated Yuna's maxed out SP score and it's 77 (calculated based on 9.5 average in all PCS categories). Mao without 3-3 scored 74.49 and that's not hypothetical. A hypothetically clean Mao would not only have a clean 3-axel and 3-3 but all level 4 spins (Mao's 74.49 did not include 3-3 and all level 4) so she ought to be able to beat 77.

    Now, whether or not Mao could match the hypothetical score is another matter. Maybe one in ten chance....

  10. #85
    Custom Title
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Posts
    308
    Quote Originally Posted by Nadia01 View Post
    Yuna & Mao did skate very clean shorts together (Vancouver) when they went back-to-back, with Mao going 1st, then Yuna. The judges placed Yuna higher than Mao there. So there's no guarantee that a clean Mao is going to beat Yuna for certain.
    But the rules were different back. Mao had use her triple axel as a combination losing about 5 points.

    Vancouver: 3A+2T, 3F, 2A
    Sochi: 3A, 3F+2Lo, 3Lo

    Big difference to Mao's advantage. Clean Mao got the highest score this year, over 74. Clean Yu-Na at Worlds got 70. Clean Caro would get around 70 as well. Mao has the edge owing to her more difficult technical content.

  11. #86
    Custom Title
    Join Date
    Feb 2010
    Posts
    830
    Quote Originally Posted by zschultz1986 View Post
    This whole thread is the wrong question. The question that should be asked RE: Mao and Caro is: "Are their poidum places safe?" That answer is, on the whole, a resounding NO. Between a Russian, Gold, Zijun, and even Murakami and Wagner.... they're going to have to produce to podium. (Which Yu-Na is going to have to do as well, but I feel much more secure in what Yu-Na can produce than what Kostner and Mao can produce, but what do I know?)
    I suppose that leads to another interesting questions--who of the "young guns" is the most likely to upset a veteran and get on the podium at the 2014 Olympics?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bartek View Post
    But the rules were different back. Mao had use her triple axel as a combination losing about 5 points.

    Vancouver: 3A+2T, 3F, 2A
    Sochi: 3A, 3F+2Lo, 3Lo

    Big difference to Mao's advantage. Clean Mao got the highest score this year, over 74. Clean Yu-Na at Worlds got 70. Clean Caro would get around 70 as well. Mao has the edge owing to her more difficult technical content.
    Yes, the rule change allowing the triple axel as the solo jump in the SP gives Mao a tremendous advantage, particularly since she does not have a consistent 3/3.

    However, as Worlds proved, even a ratified 3A with +GOE can't make up for other mistakes. It'll be interesting to see what Mao's strategy is at the beginning of the season. This season, she omitted the 3A during the GP, and I think that was a smart decision as it paid off in her most successful GP season of this quad.

    Same for Carolina, she typically adds the difficult elements as the season goes on. However, in an Olympic season, the skaters are under a microscope from the beginning of the season.

    As for Yu-Na, she got an edge call in the SP at Worlds that she didn't get in the FS. Take away the edge call and give her +GOE for her flip, and her score will go up a few points. She will likely get higher PCS for a more audience-friendly program like her James Bond SP versus Kiss of the Vampire.

  12. #87
    Banned
    Join Date
    Jun 2010
    Posts
    4,147
    Quote Originally Posted by hurrah View Post
    Mao is a different skater now compared to how she was at Vancouver, so predictions based on Vancouver are not necessarily accurate.

    Hypothetically speaking, a clean Mao would certainly beat Yuna because Mao's base value in FP is higher than Yuna by 10 points. A hypothetically clean Mao would hypothetically get positive GOEs and therefore good PCS to match
    Even a clean Mao will get lower GOE and lower PCS than a clean Kostner and a clean Kim. Whether it would be enough to compensate the base value difference I am not sure, but you seem to be under the impression a clean Mao would easily match Kostner and Kim in GOE and PCS, and all evidence is this is not the case. Her jumps are much lower quality even landed than theirs are and rightfully get lower GOE, and even some of her other elements often are lower, and her PCS have consistently been lower than Kim since 2009 and Kostner since 2011 now, regardles of performance (aka when they make more mistakes or glaring mistakes than she does, they are higher).

    Your basing scores on an event in Japan is flawed since Mao always scores higher in Japan than she will elsewhere for comparable mistakes. A hypothetical of Mao averaging 9.5s in PCS is also flawed as this will not happen (especialy outside of Japan).

  13. #88
    Banned
    Join Date
    Jun 2010
    Posts
    4,147
    Quote Originally Posted by Krislite View Post
    From a broader view going way back before the end of figures, it's actually the case that favorites are very likely to win--in particular, it's extremely likely for the reigning world champion to win the Olympics. Michelle Kwan and Irina Slutskaya were the outliers. Michelle really blew it at 2002 SLC Games. (Likewise for Irina in Torino.) Tara was not the biggest favorite but she was nevertheless the reigning World champ. The reigning world champ can be said to be the "judges' favorite" (as opposed to the audience/media), and from this perspective favorites very often win. Of the 20 Olympic champions in ladies figure skating since 1908, only FOUR were not reigning world champs when they won: Anett Potzsch, Dorothy Hamill, Sarah Hughes and Shizuka Arakawa.
    This is true. Looking at just more modern times, post World War 11 years:

    1952- favorite won
    1956- favorite won
    1960- favorite won
    1964- favorite won
    1968- favorite won
    1972- favorite won
    1976- despite not being World Champion, Hamill was considered by most as favorite going in and won
    1980- co-favorite won, Fratianne was World Champion but Poetzsch had always been her big rival and lost 79 Worlds to her only due to a very poor performance, and after Fratianne did poorly at her Nationals, no surprise Poetzsch won.
    1984- favorite probably won really. Sumners was World Champion, but Witt had improved her figures and won the combined free skating at the last 2 Worlds, so Sumners was always in trouble, especialy after a mediocre season and Nationals.
    1988- favorite won.
    1992- co-favorite won, Yamaguchi was World Champ but co favored with Ito (and maybe Harding) going in.
    1994- favorite won.
    1998- Kwan was probably favored, but Tara was reigning World Champion and won.
    2002- big surprise.
    2006- minor surprise.
    2010- favorite won.

  14. #89
    Custom Title
    Join Date
    Mar 2013
    Posts
    342
    Quote Originally Posted by Eddie Lee View Post
    There is really no one who can challenge a clean Kim. I believe Carolina Kostner comes closest--if she skates clean & Yuna makes a major mistake. Otherwise I don't see another real challenge at Sochi, but ice is slippery and Olympiads play head tricks! Just think Ladies' 1998 (Michelle a shoo-in, but Tara won); 2002 (Michelle again, or Irina, but Sarah with the skate of a lifetime); 2006 (likely Sasha, but Arakawa instead); 2010 (Yuna, & Yuna won!). So, a one in four odds that the favorite will win? Not the best odds. The post-figures era of Figure Skating (with perhaps the current judging system thrown in) really complicates prediction-making in closely contested races. However, barring a Kim injury, or poorly-chosen programs, I don't forsee the 2014 Ladies' FS Olympics event as being closely contested.
    I agree there is no one who can challenge a clean Kim... yet. I still think someone who is not Mao or Caro could challenge her technically, but whole package-wise, YuNa is the Queen. Michelle.... really is a case study on her own. She produced OGM worthy skates in 98. Sure we can nitpick and say they were slow and tentative and really didn't have the A+++ presentation that she had in Nationals, but she didn't lose the title, IMO, she was beaten, which is different. In 2002, she DID lose the title. They were ready to hand her that OGM on a silver platter had she skated clean, and she didn't. It was a culmination of a lot of choices and changes she had made in the year prior. Frank Carroll looms large. I bet you any money the flip problem would have been rectified had she had Frank. Alas, that flip will live in my heart and mind forever.

    Yu-Na is a case all her own too. She really was the one to watch from 2007-2010. Sure, Others won the WC (and rightfully so), but she really was the one who could have won in 07 and 08, but she had injuries and she had mistakes in her LPs. Really, she could have won both Ando's AND Mao's first world titles and been the three time reigning WC going into Vancouver... However, She came out like gangbusters in 2009 when she was FINALLY healthy for a full season, and rode that wave of Yu-Na Crack all the way to Vancouver. We compare Yu-Na to Kwan, but I don't think they are similar at all, other than being the Queens of their respective eras.

    Quote Originally Posted by Krislite View Post
    From a broader view going way back before the end of figures, it's actually the case that favorites are very likely to win--in particular, it's extremely likely for the reigning world champion to win the Olympics. Michelle Kwan and Irina Slutskaya were the outliers. Michelle really blew it at 2002 SLC Games. (Likewise for Irina in Torino.) Tara was not the biggest favorite but she was nevertheless the reigning World champ. The reigning world champ can be said to be the "judges' favorite" (as opposed to the audience/media), and from this perspective favorites very often win. Of the 20 Olympic champions in ladies figure skating since 1908, only FOUR were not reigning world champs when they won: Anett Potzsch, Dorothy Hamill, Sarah Hughes and Shizuka Arakawa.
    And, though Dorothy won a World Championship after that OGM, she was a two-time world silver medalist before it. When you look at the OGMs in aggregate, Sarah Hughes really is the biggest outlier of them all: She never won her Nationals in her career, she never won Worlds in her career, was only a Bronze medalist once, and yet she's the OGM. Sarah Hughes really did pull that long program out of her butt, and combined with the American Home Cooking, the judging scandal, and rough outings from the three above her, she was in the right place at the right time, with the right performance.

  15. #90
    Custom Title Nadia01's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Posts
    921
    Quote Originally Posted by hurrah View Post
    Mao is a different skater now compared to how she was at Vancouver, so predictions based on Vancouver are not necessarily accurate.

    Hypothetically speaking, a clean Mao would certainly beat Yuna because Mao's base value in FP is higher than Yuna by 10 points. A hypothetically clean Mao would hypothetically get positive GOEs and therefore good PCS to match so if Mao went clean, Yuna could skate to her max and she still would not win.

    Even in the short, a hypothetically clean Mao will beat a hypothetically clean Yuna. Krislite I think calculated Yuna's maxed out SP score and it's 77 (calculated based on 9.5 average in all PCS categories). Mao without 3-3 scored 74.49 and that's not hypothetical. A hypothetically clean Mao would not only have a clean 3-axel and 3-3 but all level 4 spins (Mao's 74.49 did not include 3-3 and all level 4) so she ought to be able to beat 77.

    Now, whether or not Mao could match the hypothetical score is another matter. Maybe one in ten chance....
    That assumes that Mao's elements, esp. jumps, are on par with Yuna in terms of transition in & out, height, distance, speed going in, and possibly delayed. I don't see that happening. I actually think Caro's & Yuna's jumps are superior to Mao's, and even when Mao lands her jumps, they don't make the kind of wow moments the way Yuna's & Caro's do.

Page 6 of 17 FirstFirst 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 ... LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •