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Thread: Who can rival Kim in Sochi: Asada or Kostner?

  1. #91
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    This is true. Looking at just more modern times, post World War 11 years:

    1952- favorite won
    1956- favorite won
    1960- favorite won
    1964- favorite won
    1968- favorite won
    1972- favorite won
    1976- despite not being World Champion, Hamill was considered by most as favorite going in and won
    1980- co-favorite won, Fratianne was World Champion but Poetzsch had always been her big rival and lost 79 Worlds to her only due to a very poor performance, and after Fratianne did poorly at her Nationals, no surprise Poetzsch won.
    1984- favorite probably won really. Sumners was World Champion, but Witt had improved her figures and won the combined free skating at the last 2 Worlds, so Sumners was always in trouble, especialy after a mediocre season and Nationals.
    1988- favorite won.
    1992- co-favorite won, Yamaguchi was World Champ but co favored with Ito (and maybe Harding) going in.
    1994- favorite won.
    1998- Kwan was probably favored, but Tara was reigning World Champion and won.
    2002- big surprise.
    2006- minor surprise.
    2010- favorite won.

    If you do it with the Men, the interesting thing to note is that, Since 1976.... Only two people have won the OGM being the reigning World Champion. Scott Hamilton, and Evan Lysacek. Hopefully, the trend of Reigning World Champs for the Men not winning OGM will continue next year in Sochi.

  2. #92
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    Quote Originally Posted by zschultz1986 View Post
    If you do it with the Men, the interesting thing to note is that, Since 1976.... Only two people have won the OGM being the reigning World Champion. Scott Hamilton, and Evan Lysacek. Hopefully, the trend of Reigning World Champs for the Men not winning OGM will continue next year in Sochi.
    Yes hopefully that is one trend that will continue (although most all of us hoped it would continue in 2010 and it didnt, blech). One funny thing for the men though is the reigning WC is usually not the favorite:

    1994- Browning was probably not the favorite with a bad season, losing Nationals, and his old rival Petrenko being back and having won all his events that season, and Stojko on fire that season and already beating Browning, (Boitano back too but he wasnt favored).
    1998- Kulik became the favorite once he beat Stojko at the GP final.
    2002- Yagudin was favored. Plushenko was injured and missed Europeans, after already losing the GP final to Yagudin.
    2006- Plushenko was the huge favorite, no question. Lambiel was very distant 2nd.
    2010- I dont think anyone really thought Evan was the favorite.

    So for the men in recent times it makes sense the WC usually doesnt win, as they usually arent supposed to anyway.

    The last time the reigning World Champion was favored was Orser in 1988 and maybe injured Browning in 1992.

  3. #93
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    Even a clean Mao will get lower GOE and lower PCS than a clean Kostner and a clean Kim. Whether it would be enough to compensate the base value difference I am not sure, but you seem to be under the impression a clean Mao would easily match Kostner and Kim in GOE and PCS, and all evidence is this is not the case. Her jumps are much lower quality even landed than theirs are and rightfully get lower GOE, and even some of her other elements often are lower, and her PCS have consistently been lower than Kim since 2009 and Kostner since 2011 now, regardles of performance (aka when they make more mistakes or glaring mistakes than she does, they are higher).

    Your basing scores on an event in Japan is flawed since Mao always scores higher in Japan than she will elsewhere for comparable mistakes. A hypothetical of Mao averaging 9.5s in PCS is also flawed as this will not happen (especialy outside of Japan).
    I think Mao scored well at 4CC because it was one of the last competitions of the season, and she has been progressively improving throughout the season. Yes, her SP score at Worlds was bad because she messed up, but she did score her season's best FP score at Worlds, so it was not because the competition was held in Japan that her SP score was high but because her skating improved.

    The average 9.5 PCS was mentioned in context of Yuna's hypothetical maximum short score, which would be 77. Mao scored 74.49 with PCS average of 8.466.

    Regarding GOEs, yes, one cannot predict that Mao would match Yuna's and Caro's GOEs even on table, but it is also worth mentioning that there were some jump elements where Mao's GOEs basically matched Yuna and Caro at Worlds: namely salchow and 2A+3T. With spins on GOEs, Mao is a bit hit and miss, but it is my understanding that Mao cut back on practicing her spins this season, and so it is realistic to expect her to get equivalent GOEs on spins next season. Also, Mao will get better or equal GOEs on steps and spiral sequence than these two.

    So Mao so far has failed to get GOEs on three elements: 3axel, 3flip and 3lutz. So it is not as if Mao has to improve on many, many elements from here to Sochi. Just these three elements, and she has been improving steadily so it is reasonable to predict that she will make some improvements from here to Sochi on these elements. Of course, we cannot expect Mao's GOEs to be better than Yuna's and Caro's toe jumps, but if she can just stop under-rotating them, we can expect her to get at least +1 GOEs, which is feasible.

    Regarding PCS, comparing PCS of Worlds FP, Mao's average was 8.55, Caro's 8.8 and Yuna's 9.2. Mao was very hesitant in the first minute and had under-rotations and wrong edge, so if she were to skate fairly clean from the beginning of next season, I think her PCS will go up.

    Yuna's maximum score I think ought to be 77 for SP and 150 for FP, meaning we are looking for a skater who can score above 227. Combining Mao's best scores this season, she scored 208. This 208 precludes a 3-3 in both short and long and includes a double-footed 3axel, two under-rotation calls, one wrong edge call, a loop without the GOE that she is capable of and an inclusion of a 2loop instead of a 3loop. If she can have 3-3 in both short and long, do a clean 3axel in both short and long, get rid of her under-rotations calls, and put in two 3loops instead of one, I think she can score another 20 points.

    Well... it is a long shot, but it's not impossible. If Mao can bring up the quality of her 3axel, 3flip and hopefully 3lutz during the off season, she has a chance.

  4. #94
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bartek View Post
    But the rules were different back. Mao had use her triple axel as a combination losing about 5 points.

    Vancouver: 3A+2T, 3F, 2A
    Sochi: 3A, 3F+2Lo, 3Lo

    Big difference to Mao's advantage. Clean Mao got the highest score this year, over 74. Clean Yu-Na at Worlds got 70. Clean Caro would get around 70 as well. Mao has the edge owing to her more difficult technical content.
    Yuna wasn't clean at Worlds. She got the edge call on her 3F, and made a visible mistake on the flying camel spin.

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    Quote Originally Posted by hurrah View Post
    I think Mao scored well at 4CC because it was one of the last competitions of the season, and she has been progressively improving throughout the season. Yes, her SP score at Worlds was bad because she messed up, but she did score her season's best FP score at Worlds, so it was not because the competition was held in Japan that her SP score was high but because her skating improved.

    The average 9.5 PCS was mentioned in context of Yuna's hypothetical maximum short score, which would be 77. Mao scored 74.49 with PCS average of 8.466.

    Regarding GOEs, yes, one cannot predict that Mao would match Yuna's and Caro's GOEs even on table, but it is also worth mentioning that there were some jump elements where Mao's GOEs basically matched Yuna and Caro at Worlds: namely salchow and 2A+3T. With spins on GOEs, Mao is a bit hit and miss, but it is my understanding that Mao cut back on practicing her spins this season, and so it is realistic to expect her to get equivalent GOEs on spins next season. Also, Mao will get better or equal GOEs on steps and spiral sequence than these two.

    So Mao so far has failed to get GOEs on three elements: 3axel, 3flip and 3lutz. So it is not as if Mao has to improve on many, many elements from here to Sochi. Just these three elements, and she has been improving steadily so it is reasonable to predict that she will make some improvements from here to Sochi on these elements. Of course, we cannot expect Mao's GOEs to be better than Yuna's and Caro's toe jumps, but if she can just stop under-rotating them, we can expect her to get at least +1 GOEs, which is feasible.

    Regarding PCS, comparing PCS of Worlds FP, Mao's average was 8.55, Caro's 8.8 and Yuna's 9.2. Mao was very hesitant in the first minute and had under-rotations and wrong edge, so if she were to skate fairly clean from the beginning of next season, I think her PCS will go up.

    Yuna's maximum score I think ought to be 77 for SP and 150 for FP, meaning we are looking for a skater who can score above 227. Combining Mao's best scores this season, she scored 208. This 208 precludes a 3-3 in both short and long and includes a double-footed 3axel, two under-rotation calls, one wrong edge call and a loop without the GOE that she is capable of. If she can have 3-3 in both short and long, do a clean 3axel in both short and long and get rid of her under-rotations calls, I think she can score another 20 points.

    Well... it is a long shot, but it's not impossible. If Mao can bring up the quality of her 3axel, 3flip and hopefully 3lutz during the off season, she has a chance.
    Valid points. I still do agree Mao is the bigger threat to upset Kim for the OGM (I gave her more shot than Kostner at that, but Kostner more shot at winning the silver, and Asada more shot at dropping off the podium than Kostner) as her huge base value is the kind of thing one needs to beat Kim. I think Kostner had a shot this season, but she needed to keep her status as World Champion and she didnt, and I dont think she will next year with Kim likely regaining all her momentum with the judges. Kostner doesnt have a higher base value than Kim which after Kims commanding victory at the 2013 Worlds will be needed IMO, and while she can match or come the cloest to Kim of anyone in GOE and PCS, I dont think anywhere she would actually be able to get ahead without a higher base value, and that plus Kim is the more likely of the two to skate clean. Mao with her huge base value is the one with a more fighting chance (albeit still slim) to get ahead of Kim, as a clean skate or almost clean competition , with good enough GOEs and a good program and good PCS, could do it with her difficulty.

  6. #96
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    Quote Originally Posted by zschultz1986 View Post
    If you do it with the Men, the interesting thing to note is that, Since 1976.... Only two people have won the OGM being the reigning World Champion. Scott Hamilton, and Evan Lysacek. Hopefully, the trend of Reigning World Champs for the Men not winning OGM will continue next year in Sochi.
    But on the other hand in men every reigning WC from USA has won the gold medal at the Olympics so far. It is only the Canadians, Russians and Swiss who are affected with that trend of not winning.... So, there is a big possibility that your wish will become true.

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    Quote Originally Posted by zschultz1986 View Post
    If you do it with the Men, the interesting thing to note is that, Since 1976.... Only two people have won the OGM being the reigning World Champion. Scott Hamilton, and Evan Lysacek. Hopefully, the trend of Reigning World Champs for the Men not winning OGM will continue next year in Sochi.
    I wouldn't mind Chan winning in Sochi, if he EARNS it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ForeverFish View Post
    Yuna wasn't clean at Worlds. She got the edge call on her 3F, and made a visible mistake on the flying camel spin.
    True and good students/competitors will definitely look at those things and fix them (Which Yu-Na is.) However, I think her 3F looks about as good, technique-wise, as I have ever seen it.

    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    Valid points.   I still do agree Mao is the bigger threat to upset Kim for the OGM (I gave her more shot than Kostner at that, but Kostner more shot at winning the silver, and Asada more shot at dropping off the podium than Kostner) as her huge base value is the kind of thing one needs to beat Kim.     I think Kostner had a shot this season, but she needed to keep her status as World Champion and she didnt, and I dont think she will next year with Kim likely regaining all her momentum with the judges.   Kostner doesnt have a higher base value than Kim which after Kims commanding victory at the 2013 Worlds will be needed IMO, and while she can match or come the cloest to Kim of anyone in GOE and PCS, I dont think anywhere she would actually be able to get ahead without a higher base value, and that plus Kim is the more likely of the two to skate clean.    Mao with her huge base value is the one with a more fighting chance (albeit still slim) to get ahead of Kim, as a clean skate or almost clean competition , with good enough GOEs and a good program and good PCS, could do it with her difficulty.
    Totally agree with the assessment that Mao has a wider range (1*-5) of placements than Koster (prolly 2-3/4)

    *That is even iffy though... I honestly, in my heart or hearts, don't think anyone is touching Yu-Na unless Yu-Na hands it to them. The OGM is going to be decided on Yu-Na's skates.

    Quote Originally Posted by ForeverFish View Post
    I wouldn't mind Chan winning in Sochi, if he EARNS it.
    I know its the "right" thing to agree... but I just can't with him anymore. He a great skater... blah, blah, blah... he's a giant dbag who actually thinks he deserved the scores he got, as he stated in interview after interview post-Worlds, and said that Ten didn't walk through the door... except Ten DID walk through that doo, and the judges kicked him out. Sure, the result is out of his control, but he is the one who, instead of seeing the reality, has decided to embrace the judges narrative of him being this revolutionary skater ala John Curry... I'm sorry Chan, you'll never be Yagudin OR Curry. Chan = a Robot with Canadian Edges.

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    Quote Originally Posted by hurrah View Post
    So Mao so far has failed to get GOEs on three elements: 3axel, 3flip and 3lutz. So it is not as if Mao has to improve on many, many elements from here to Sochi. Just these three elements, and she has been improving steadily so it is reasonable to predict that she will make some improvements from here to Sochi on these elements. Of course, we cannot expect Mao's GOEs to be better than Yuna's and Caro's toe jumps, but if she can just stop under-rotating them, we can expect her to get at least +1 GOEs, which is feasible.
    Mao has been double-footing and/or underrotating the 3a more than 60% of the time over all the years she's been attempting the 3a. She's been dinged for 3f URs at an even higher rate. She's spend years trying to improve her flutz without success. Anyone who believes she can 'cure' her two-foot, UR and edge problems over the next 10 months is sadly in denial. Two-footing jumps is sloppy skating, which keeps GOEs down. URs and flutzing keep GOE in the 0-to-negative range.

    Regarding PCS, comparing PCS of Worlds FP, Mao's average was 8.55, Caro's 8.8 and Yuna's 9.2. Mao was very hesitant in the first minute and had under-rotations and wrong edge, so if she were to skate fairly clean from the beginning of next season, I think her PCS will go up.
    Mao has never been confident about her 3a (with good reason) and just attempting it seems to make her feel insecure about the jumps following it. We saw that at Worlds 2013, where she URd her 3f and couldn't add the triple after it. That failure in turn caused her to be cautious with the rest of her jumps, and her tightness eased only as she entered the footwork section. As noted above, she isn't going to become fully confident and sure of her harder jumps over the next 10 months. Mao seems incapable of turning in a clean FS, and as long as that continues, she isn't going to see a rise in PCS, except possible at NHK, of course.

    If Mao can't skate clean at minor events like GPs, I can't imagine her doing so at Sochi, where the stakes are huge. She didn't skate a clean FS in Vancouver (she URd the flip and singled a 3t), and that was a time when her 3a was a lot more reliable than it is now, and she wasn't getting as many URs as she has this past season.

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    What I meant when I wrote that the first time Kim skated a clean LP was at the olympics was - why someone else can't do it for the first time at the Olympics? It's true Mao's success rate at many jumps is low but it's not like she can't land them at all, except for the triple flutz. If you take her best jumps she did perform this season and add them up, her score is around 147 and that is without PCS boost from a clean LP. She did not yet jumped a clean 3F-3L but she attempted it for the first time since 2009 season, she is capable of getting it back.
    What I want to say is, I perfectly know Mao's chances of skating a clean LP (only with e on 3Lz) are terribly low but it's not like it's impossible. If Yuna could skate clean for the first time at the Olys, why theoretically Mao can't? Mr Sato said that the process of reworking her technique will be finished just in time for Sochi, literally.
    I remember (though correct me please if I'm wrong) Mao said her success rate at clean runthroughs was around 30%? So if her success rate is 30%, even if it's 10%, why one of those skates can't be performed at the Olympics?
    Back in 2009 some people would also say that Yuna seems incapable of turning in a clean FS. Now nobody doubts it, including myself.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Cherryy View Post
    If Yuna couskate clean for the first time at the Olys, why theoretically Mao can't? ld Mr Sato said that the process of reworking her technique will be finished just in time for Sochi, literally.
    I remember (though correct me please if I'm wrong) Mao said her success rate at clean runthroughs was around 30%? So if her success rate is 30%, even if it's 10%, why one of those skates can't be performed at the Olympics?
    Back in 2009 some people would also say that Yuna seems incapable of turning in a clean FS. Now nobody doubts it, including myself.
    There is a difference of potential.
    it's true that yuna's first clean fs was olympics. she didin't often perfect clean FS. but, she usually had only one or two mistakes in fs.
    if she got UR on 3-4 jumps, that was called 'yuna's terrible skating' (for example, 2009 SA)
    In the case of Mao, In this season almost every competition, she got UR on 3-4 jumps in FS.(Even before her jump component containing 3a, 3-3)

  12. #102
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    One reason that Mao usually scores higher in Japan is because she tends to skater better at home. This is not totally discounting hometown boost but some skaters perform better in front of a home crowd and Mao is one of them.

    The only thing that is near impossible to fix is her flutz and she will probably always get an edge call on it with neg GOE. Everything else she has shown she could land it with some positive GOE in the past. Of course, the last ratified 3-3 combo she did was years ago but she has only recently brought it back. Certainly the chances of her landing all of these difficult jumps cleanly at the biggest competition is slim but it isn't out of the realm of possibility.

  13. #103
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cherryy View Post
    What I meant when I wrote that the first time Kim skated a clean LP was at the olympics was - why someone else can't do it for the first time at the Olympics? It's true Mao's success rate at many jumps is low but it's not like she can't land them at all, except for the triple flutz. If you take her best jumps she did perform this season and add them up, her score is around 147 and that is without PCS boost from a clean LP. She did not yet jumped a clean 3F-3L but she attempted it for the first time since 2009 season, she is capable of getting it back.
    What I want to say is, I perfectly know Mao's chances of skating a clean LP (only with e on 3Lz) are terribly low but it's not like it's impossible. If Yuna could skate clean for the first time at the Olys, why theoretically Mao can't? Mr Sato said that the process of reworking her technique will be finished just in time for Sochi, literally.
    I remember (though correct me please if I'm wrong) Mao said her success rate at clean runthroughs was around 30%? So if her success rate is 30%, even if it's 10%, why one of those skates can't be performed at the Olympics?
    Back in 2009 some people would also say that Yuna seems incapable of turning in a clean FS. Now nobody doubts it, including myself.
    Well, nobody here is denying Mao can go clean at the Olympics. I certainly think it's quite possible. As for her 30% success rate at run-through's, I think that basically confirms our belief that the chances are slim. The biggest effect that kind of poor consistency has is in Mao's confidence during competition. It doesn't help her at all that she can't trust her own technique, which is so critical when skating under immense pressure.

  14. #104
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    Quote Originally Posted by venlac View Post
    There is a difference of potential.
    it's true that yuna's first clean fs was olympics. she didin't often perfect clean FS. but, she usually had only one or two mistakes in fs.
    if she got UR on 3-4 jumps, that was called 'yuna's terrible skating' (for example, 2009 SA)
    In the case of Mao, In this season almost every competition, she got UR on 3-4 jumps in FS.(Even before her jump component containing 3a, 3-3)
    I would much rather watch a performance with a few UR, then a performance with falls, popped jumps, level 1-2 spins.... mainly because the visible mistakes bother me much more then the unvisible mistakes!

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    Quote Originally Posted by zschultz1986 View Post
    I know its the "right" thing to agree... but I just can't with him anymore. He a great skater... blah, blah, blah... he's a giant dbag who actually thinks he deserved the scores he got, as he stated in interview after interview post-Worlds, and said that Ten didn't walk through the door... except Ten DID walk through that doo, and the judges kicked him out. Sure, the result is out of his control, but he is the one who, instead of seeing the reality, has decided to embrace the judges narrative of him being this revolutionary skater ala John Curry... I'm sorry Chan, you'll never be Yagudin OR Curry. Chan = a Robot with Canadian Edges.
    Well, out of fear that this will turn into another "Chan vs. the judging system" thread, I won't try to convince you to do the "right" thing. I'll just point out that, ATM, Chan has better odds of winning in Sochi than any other senior man.

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