Originally Posted by pangtongfan
If you do it with the Men, the interesting thing to note is that, Since 1976.... Only two people have won the OGM being the reigning World Champion. Scott Hamilton, and Evan Lysacek. Hopefully, the trend of Reigning World Champs for the Men not winning OGM will continue next year in Sochi.
Yes hopefully that is one trend that will continue (although most all of us hoped it would continue in 2010 and it didnt, blech). One funny thing for the men though is the reigning WC is usually not the favorite:
Originally Posted by zschultz1986
1994- Browning was probably not the favorite with a bad season, losing Nationals, and his old rival Petrenko being back and having won all his events that season, and Stojko on fire that season and already beating Browning, (Boitano back too but he wasnt favored).
1998- Kulik became the favorite once he beat Stojko at the GP final.
2002- Yagudin was favored. Plushenko was injured and missed Europeans, after already losing the GP final to Yagudin.
2006- Plushenko was the huge favorite, no question. Lambiel was very distant 2nd.
2010- I dont think anyone really thought Evan was the favorite.
So for the men in recent times it makes sense the WC usually doesnt win, as they usually arent supposed to anyway.
The last time the reigning World Champion was favored was Orser in 1988 and maybe injured Browning in 1992.
I think Mao scored well at 4CC because it was one of the last competitions of the season, and she has been progressively improving throughout the season. Yes, her SP score at Worlds was bad because she messed up, but she did score her season's best FP score at Worlds, so it was not because the competition was held in Japan that her SP score was high but because her skating improved.
Originally Posted by pangtongfan
The average 9.5 PCS was mentioned in context of Yuna's hypothetical maximum short score, which would be 77. Mao scored 74.49 with PCS average of 8.466.
Regarding GOEs, yes, one cannot predict that Mao would match Yuna's and Caro's GOEs even on table, but it is also worth mentioning that there were some jump elements where Mao's GOEs basically matched Yuna and Caro at Worlds: namely salchow and 2A+3T. With spins on GOEs, Mao is a bit hit and miss, but it is my understanding that Mao cut back on practicing her spins this season, and so it is realistic to expect her to get equivalent GOEs on spins next season. Also, Mao will get better or equal GOEs on steps and spiral sequence than these two.
So Mao so far has failed to get GOEs on three elements: 3axel, 3flip and 3lutz. So it is not as if Mao has to improve on many, many elements from here to Sochi. Just these three elements, and she has been improving steadily so it is reasonable to predict that she will make some improvements from here to Sochi on these elements. Of course, we cannot expect Mao's GOEs to be better than Yuna's and Caro's toe jumps, but if she can just stop under-rotating them, we can expect her to get at least +1 GOEs, which is feasible.
Regarding PCS, comparing PCS of Worlds FP, Mao's average was 8.55, Caro's 8.8 and Yuna's 9.2. Mao was very hesitant in the first minute and had under-rotations and wrong edge, so if she were to skate fairly clean from the beginning of next season, I think her PCS will go up.
Yuna's maximum score I think ought to be 77 for SP and 150 for FP, meaning we are looking for a skater who can score above 227. Combining Mao's best scores this season, she scored 208. This 208 precludes a 3-3 in both short and long and includes a double-footed 3axel, two under-rotation calls, one wrong edge call, a loop without the GOE that she is capable of and an inclusion of a 2loop instead of a 3loop. If she can have 3-3 in both short and long, do a clean 3axel in both short and long, get rid of her under-rotations calls, and put in two 3loops instead of one, I think she can score another 20 points.
Well... it is a long shot, but it's not impossible. If Mao can bring up the quality of her 3axel, 3flip and hopefully 3lutz during the off season, she has a chance.
Yuna wasn't clean at Worlds. She got the edge call on her 3F, and made a visible mistake on the flying camel spin.
Originally Posted by Bartek
Valid points. I still do agree Mao is the bigger threat to upset Kim for the OGM (I gave her more shot than Kostner at that, but Kostner more shot at winning the silver, and Asada more shot at dropping off the podium than Kostner) as her huge base value is the kind of thing one needs to beat Kim. I think Kostner had a shot this season, but she needed to keep her status as World Champion and she didnt, and I dont think she will next year with Kim likely regaining all her momentum with the judges. Kostner doesnt have a higher base value than Kim which after Kims commanding victory at the 2013 Worlds will be needed IMO, and while she can match or come the cloest to Kim of anyone in GOE and PCS, I dont think anywhere she would actually be able to get ahead without a higher base value, and that plus Kim is the more likely of the two to skate clean. Mao with her huge base value is the one with a more fighting chance (albeit still slim) to get ahead of Kim, as a clean skate or almost clean competition , with good enough GOEs and a good program and good PCS, could do it with her difficulty.
Originally Posted by hurrah