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Thread: Who can rival Kim in Sochi: Asada or Kostner?

  1. #61
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    ptf, you've criticised Butyrskaya for just having a World title at 27 that's unremarkable (saying "that was it for her" as if she should have replicated her success at Worlds and the Olympics at 28 & 29), and then decided to use Shizuka as some comparatively prodigious "late bloomer"... which is a stupid comparison to begin with considering you're not even using the right numbers in your argument:

    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    Maria was a a late bloomer in that she first became an outside medal contender and started reaching her prime in 1996 at age 23. Shizuka first began reaching her prime and became a medal contender at 24, so even older.
    Arakawa won her World title at 22 -- so I don't get where the heck you get that she started first hitting her prime and became a medal contender only at 24. And you're saying Butyrskaya started to hit her prime in '96 when she came 2nd at Sparkassen and 3rd at Europeans... okay, sure... Shizuka, by that comparison then, started to hit her prime when she placed 2nd at 4CC and 4th at Skate America when she was 20 years old -- heck, let's say a year later when she won another 4CC silver, a bronze at NHK and made the GPF at 21 years old -- still not even close to 24! I know you're used to throwing out random numbers, but come on...

    Shizuka didn't do well in her teens, gained momentum with GP and 4CC medals at the beginning of her 20's, but then lost it and wasn't even able to qualify for the 2002 Olympics, and then gained it back with a World title (the only time she's ever been a podium contender at Worlds -- albeit an excellent performance), followed by a dismal Worlds the following year, and then getting it back together again for an Olympic title. Shizuka is indeed a better skater overall than Maria (I never said she wasn't), but her career has been mercurial and she's hardly this "multi-title threat late bloomer" that you suggest she is. There's nothing to say Arakawa wouldn't have placed 9th at competitions after 2006 Olympics. Saying she had the potential to be a multi-title winner is speculative BS, especially when in her three outings at Worlds she was 8th, 1st and 9th.

    In the context of this thread, it is very hard for Kostner to rival a clean Kim so if Kostner never won another Worlds or the Olympics it would be asinine/unfair to insult her as having "only 1 World title and that was it for her" (the way it was hard for Butyrskaya to rival a strong Kwan/Slutskaya after her World title win). It would disregard the fact that (like in Butyrskaya's case) Kostner was indeed the cleanest skater at the Worlds she won, and (like in Butyrskaya's case) discredits the fine skater she is and career she's had, and (like in many cases) makes you just come off like a sad, pathetic jerk. Although you're not exactly a Kostner fan, so I can totally picture you eventually doing that; although I suppose not being a jerk is the least of your priorities, apparently.

    As for my arguments being shot down by "all" - LOL, you mean you and a few others who clearly have it in for Chan no matter how he does, right? - well duh, of course I'm fine with disagreeing with your vitriolic, unwavering, and shamelessly biased opinions. I could list sweeping generalizations, false statements, and boorish, nasty things you've said about other skaters, but I wouldn't want to bore you with another "long string".

  2. #62
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    Quote Originally Posted by rallycairn View Post
    I do wonder if there will be any more COP scoring changes that will favor layouts like Mao's though (women's triple axel, etc.)? I still see YuNa as the clear favorite, regardless, but that is one factor I don't think has been brought into the discussion.
    loop's point is similar with flip (her only jump that over 80% success rate)
    The 70% rule has been created, which reduces the deduction for the lack of the jump.(this season, more than half of the her jump was UR)
    GOE factor was decreased to 70%.
    3axel basis points increased again. and only for 3a, goe factor=100%
    what do you hoping to other rules? get rid of GOE? get rid of edge call? A rule that give 90% base point on the UR jump? Lowering the basis of 3lz again, be equal point with 3f?

    I wonder how the rules change more, it becomes be fair for mao
    it seems like some treat mao like humor a baby.

    And do not worry, Korea Federation has never suggest any rules,
    japan federation has successed many times.
    Rule can be more favorable to her, it'll be revise.

  3. #63
    Six Point Zero Krislite's Avatar
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    Kostner and Asada are better able to close the gap with Kim at Sochi in part because of the SP. With the new rules after Vancouver--GOE factoring, no spiral sequence, solo 3Axel--and the fact that they've been able to narrow the PCS gap in Yuna's absence, it means Yuna can no longer build a decisive lead in the SP and needs a strong and clean long program to dominate. Interestingly enough, that's exactly what she's done in her comeback season. It used to be very rare for Yuna to do a clean LP, but she's already done it twice this season (2 out 3 competitions). It's her strength in the long program that enabled her to win by the margin she usually did in the past. She made up her for her loss of dominance in the short by going clean in the free skate. So she has adapted to the new competitive field and has found a new winning strategy.

    Having done her two cleanest long programs in her biggest competitions (Olympics, Worlds before Olympics) shows to me, at least, that Yuna knows how to focus and deliver when she needs to and wants to and is able to repeat it. That's not the case for Mao or Carolina, who are still hit-or-miss when put under pressure in the big stage of Worlds or the Olympics. This is her biggest advantage going into Sochi, and what will make it very difficult (though not impossible) for her rivals to catch up to her. It's also very unnerving mentally for her rivals because that means they can't count on Yuna to make mistakes to open the door for them, putting a lot more pressure on them to go as clean as possible with a very tough jump layout.

    Granted, they're all under pressure to deliver clean programs in the short and the free in order to win. But such pressure is strongest on Mao and Carolina. If Yuna skates last in Sochi, then Carolina and Mao will feel the need to target a 150+ score in the free to win. I'm sure that will weigh quite heavily in their mind, no matter how well they do next season in the Grand Prix.

  4. #64
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    Quote Originally Posted by Olympia View Post
    One doesn't mean it literally, of course. Anyone who wins as decisively as YuNa does deserves it. If she comes back in at the top, as she just did, then she's the top skater. But I'd love for Mao to win a gold of her own as well. Thats perfectly natural for a fervent fan, and I'm happy to say I'm a fervent fan of both these ladies.

    In the same way, I always wanted Michelle to win an OGM in her years. One has one's favorites. I don't hate Sarah or Tara for "seizing" it from its rightful owner. Just as I'd love Davis and White to win the next OGM...but if Virtue/Moir win it, it will be because they're splendid on that night. As a dancer friend of mine, a big Michelle fan, said of Tara in 1998, "Sometimes the magic happens for one person." That's life, and the ice is slippery.
    That's what I meant. Maybe I should have said it more precisely, I'm sorry for that. The comparison with D/W and V/M is really accurate. These two pairs and Mao with Kim were/are dominant for some time in their respective disciplines so all these people deserve to have an olympic gold medal. I'll be happy for V/M and Yuna if they repeat as olympic champions but I would be extremely sad for D/W and Mao for not being able to show what they can do on that one specific evening (well, maybe 2 evenings). I'd love D/W and Mao to win in Sochi. It would be even better if everyone showed their best with Mao and D/W being a tiny bit better so that they could claim the most important title not in the way Shizuka did. I wish they will show they all can be better than Kim and V/M even if the latters still bring it.
    To Krislite: That is my mentality, sure, and you may think it's stupid but I just want everyone to get what they deserve. If Mao's and Kim's chances were both 50% at getting the gold I would like Mao to get the gold even though I love both Mao and Kim just because Kim already has one. You may not feel this way, probably also because I assume your favourite is Kim, while right now I love Mao a tiny bit more. I didn't mean that Kim is depriving anyone of a gold medal. Again, sorry for not saying this one clearly .
    One more thing - true, now Kim can't capitilize so much on SP but on the other hand I also don't see Mao or Carolina having a monstruos advantage over Yuna after SP, like the one Yuna had after Vancouver SP.

    About changes of rules: were there any significant changes right before Vancouver or Torino?

  5. #65
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    Personally, I am rooting for Mao to get the OGM and I am hoping that everything falls in place for her. In terms of who is more likely to beat Yu Na between Carolina and Mao, I will give the slight edge to Mao. However a clean 8-triple long program from Mao would be the ultimate key. In addition, a SP containing a 3-3 as well as a 3A would help garner Mao a lot of points. And yes yes yes, I know the chances of her delivering those two programs would be incredibly difficult.

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    Even in her wins (Worlds 2008 and 2010, 4CC 2013) Mao has not skated a clean FS. I can't remember when she has been able to do it, maybe back in 2006 when she was barely 15 and still weighed about 88 lbs. AFAIK, Mao has 100-1 chance of turning in a clean FS, while Kim's odds are better than 50-50.

  7. #67
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    Quote Originally Posted by chuckm View Post
    Even in her wins (Worlds 2008 and 2010, 4CC 2013) Mao has not skated a clean FS. I can't remember when she has been able to do it, maybe back in 2006 when she was barely 15 and still weighed about 88 lbs. AFAIK, Mao has 100-1 chance of turning in a clean FS, while Kim's odds are better than 50-50.
    Just to be precise, the last time that she skated clean FS (and, with this, I mean skatin without mistakes landing all the planned jumps) was in 2010, when she skated three clean FS: Nationals, 4CC, Worlds (but she had < at every competition)...

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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    Yes that is what I meant. I actually think Yu Na in Vancouver was much more unbeatable than Yu Na in Sochi. The gap between her and the field has closed somewhat I feel. However is it close enough to be in striking distance for Kostner or Asada is the topic at hand, and quite an interesting one to discuss.
    Yu-Na won Worlds by just about the same margin she won the Olympics by. Unless Asada pulls out ALL the stops, with 2-3 Triple Axels (1 SP, 1-2 LP), a Triple-Triple, fully rotated jumps, and that joyous ethereal Mao artistry, she's looking at another medal that isn't Gold.

    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    Michelle Kwan prevented Irina Slutskaya from being a 5 or 6 time World Champion which despite being an Irina fan gives me shivers, from Elena Sokolova becoming a World Champion, and from Sasha splatting her way to every U.S title from 2000 onwards (the only year Sasha did performances worthy of a U.S title in 2006 she easily won it). For that alone she should be blessed. It is not like she was ever preventing any really great skaters from doing something that they were worthy of, other than Chen from winning her 2nd World title in 1996.

    Kim on the other hand is preventing some great and truly worthy skaters from achieving more. Mao Asada is a phenom who by rights should be an Olympic Champion once or twice already, but due to Kim's Vancouver rampage and silly age rules is a 0 time, and now down to her last chance to do it. Carolina Kostner is a wonderful and gorgeous skater who should be a multi World Champion, but because she competes with Kim and Asada she is only a 1 time thus far. Joannie Rochette is another great skater who should be atleast a 1 time World or Olympic winner but having to compete against Kim, Asada, and even Ando and Kostner as well, that didnt happen for her. Ando is a multi World Champion but due to Kim and Asada she will retire with no Olympic medals. However all these skaters were better for having had to compete against her.
    Really? Ando? Ando is only a two-time world champ because Yu-Na screwed the pooch in the long in both 07 AND 11. Ando is one of those skaters that will only win when others falter and she skates clean (or cleanish). She's had bad results at Olympics, because when the chips are down, and everyone brings their A game, she's out. I mean, A teenage Mirai beat her (and Lepisto in the long.) I'm not saying she's a bad skater.... she's a very good one. You don't get in the position of possibly winning two world titles by being a bad skater. What you really should be saying is that Yu-Na really should have 4 world championships.

    Mao Asada should have been the reigning OGM going into Vancouver. Stupid age rules.



    This whole thread is the wrong question. The question that should be asked RE: Mao and Caro is: "Are their poidum places safe?" That answer is, on the whole, a resounding NO. Between a Russian, Gold, Zijun, and even Murakami and Wagner.... they're going to have to produce to podium. (Which Yu-Na is going to have to do as well, but I feel much more secure in what Yu-Na can produce than what Kostner and Mao can produce, but what do I know?)

  9. #69
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    Quote Originally Posted by FSGMT View Post
    Just to be precise, the last time that she skated clean FS (and, with this, I mean skatin without mistakes landing all the planned jumps) was in 2010, when she skated three clean FS: Nationals, 4CC, Worlds (but she had < at every competition)...
    In the context of trying to beat Yuna, I wouldn't consider Mao's skates with URs "clean" because she needs those jumps fully rotated to have any chance of beating Kim. It's very difficult to rotate 6 jumps, much less 8, so I think it is highly unlikely Mao can do it (100 to 1 odds sounds about right). Mao's main problem is that she is even having trouble with what have been her best jumps: the loop and the flip. She does not have complete confidence in any of her jumps, so landing 6 different ones will be very hard.

  10. #70
    Custom Title Cherryy's Avatar
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    Just to remind everyone - Yuna skated a clean program for the first time at the Olympics, you know

  11. #71
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    ptf, you've criticised Butyrskaya for just having a World title at 27
    Maria's World title was at age 26, not 27. Best check your own "facts" are correct before mocking other for "not even using the right numbers". And again for the 1000th time (learn to read, learn to READ) I never once stated that Maria should have won the Olympic Gold at age 29 in SLC. That was a lie and fabrication on YOUR part that you keep repeating in sad desperation to help your own failed arguments, which simply using truths and my actual words sadly go nowhere for you. Maria's chances to do more if she were good enough were the years preceding her World title where for 3 years she was solidly entrenched in the top 5 and a major contender already, and the year (possibly two years, but definitely not three) after her World title. I am not going to try and explain it a 1001th time so either digest it now or too bad.

    Arakawa won her World title at 22 -- so I don't get where the heck you get that she started first hitting her prime and became a medal contender only at 24.
    I believed she won the World title at age 23, but I was off on her age by a year, just like you were off on Maria's by a year (although your case is far worse as you somehow deduced the 2002 Olympics was 2 years after the 1999 Worlds given that you talk about her winning the Worlds at 27, and your repeated lie about me stating that she should have won the Olympics at 29, so for you 27 + 3 + 29 I suppose, lol). So Shizuka became a major contender at age 22 and Maria at 23, big whoop one year difference, and Shizuka chose to skate only 3 seasons as a major contender and won both Worlds and Olympics in that span, and give up another GREAT chance to win yet another Worlds/Olympics when she skipped the post Olympic Worlds following her Olympic win. By contrast Maria skated 5 or 6 seasons as a major contender (96-2000/2001) and never managed another top 2 finish at either besides her shock World title.

    And you're saying Butyrskaya started to hit her prime in '96 when she came 2nd at Sparkassen and 3rd at Europeans... okay, sure...
    Yes I am saying a season in which Maria Butyrskaya, for years previous a journeywomen who rarely even made it out of Russia to Worlds, and in her one time she did didnt make it out of qualifying, won medals on the Grand Prix, a medal at Europeans, was 1 of only 2 women to beat Michelle Kwan, qualified for the Grand Prix final, and finished 4th at Worlds, and would finish top 5 at every Worlds for the next 5 years to come, was starting her prime. Wow isnt that a wierd conclusion to draw, LOL! What are you trying to suggest, Maria had only a 1 year prime (her World title year) despite skater as a Senior international competitor for 10 years? If so that doesnt exactly make her look any better.

    Shizuka, by that comparison then, started to hit her prime when she placed 2nd at 4CC and 4th at Skate America when she was 20 years old --
    Yes Shizuka was already in her prime in a period she was losing regularly to Yoshie Onda, and couldnt even beat Onda out for a spot on the Japanese Olympic Team (where Onda barely finished top 20). All because she came 2nd at 4CCs behind the great Jenny Kirk, the then #6 skater in the U.S, whose best Worlds result would be a 15th. This is somehow comparable to a season where you beat Michelle, are on the podium in almost every event, and come 4th at Worlds (Maria in 1996). Anymore comedy to bring to this discussion.

    Saying she had the potential to be a multi-title winner is speculative BS
    No it isnt, because it actually DID happen. 2004 World Champion, 2006 Olympic Champion. FACTS, not speculation. Saying she didnt have the potential to be a multi-major title winner is denial of facts, since she actually is. There is nothing needed to speculate on (although you desperately tried in vein to push the point Shizuka's Turin Gold was somehow lucky). Saying Maria had that potential on the other hand would be speculative BS.

    especially when in her three outings at Worlds she was 8th, 1st and 9th.
    This only proves how much more sheer ability she had than Butyrskaya, as already noted Maria was a top 5 skater for 6 years solid from 1996-2001. She was in fact way more consistent than Shizuka was (that is something I will give her credit on), and nowhere near as inconsistent as potrayed. However despite that she didnt win much, or even come close ever aside from her World title, simply because she didnt have the ability and she just wasnt good enough. It wasnt like she bombing, she wouldnt keep coming top 5 if she did, but her skills were not Championship caliber. Shizuka on the other hand only skated well twice in major events, and won both times.

    As for my arguments being shot down by "all" - LOL, you mean you and a few others who clearly have it in for Chan no matter how he does, right?
    I was actually referring to your failed arguments on the Butyrskaya vs Arakawa matter, and the Cohen vs Arakawa in Turin matter, and those related threads. I wasnt even referring to Chan, but yes many have schooled you and your Chan related arguments too, since you bring that up. Yes just keep telling yourself anyone that argues what the whole skating World is saying, that Chan has become one of the most held up skaters in history, and his recent Worlds win was another farce, or that skaters like Plushenko at this point have a far greater legacy and place in history than Chan, MUST be haters. It couldnt be objective individuals happening to think or so those things, only Chan haters, LOL!



    Anyway this is my LAST (again read what I say properly for once) post in this thread on the topic. This topic has nothing to do with Butyrskaya, Arakawa, Chan and your other dirty laundry issues. If you wish to discuss those topics further than start your own thread, but I am done.

  12. #72
    Meanwhile in a parallel universe .... theresa's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cherryy View Post
    Just to remind everyone - Yuna skated a clean program for the first time at the Olympics, you know
    Thank youuu! Finally someone has pointed this out. It will be very difficult to beat a clean Yuna, however it won't be an easy feat for Yuna to deliver a clean SP and LP.

  13. #73
    Six Point Zero Krislite's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by theresa View Post
    Thank youuu! Finally someone has pointed this out. It will be very difficult to beat a clean Yuna, however it won't be an easy feat for Yuna to deliver a clean SP and LP.
    Difficult doesn't mean unlikely. Things have changed a bit since the last Olympic quad. In this season alone Yuna delivered a clean long program two out of three times. In her three biggest competitions in her skating career (2009 Worlds, Vancouver Olympics and 2013 Worlds), she delivered a clean SP and LP two out of three times as well. (In Worlds 2009 she had only one pop in the LP.) Now I'm not ignoring the other times she's made mistakes, but during Worlds 2007 and 2008 she was nursing back injuries, while in Worlds 2010 and 2011 she was dealing with motivational issues. I think now she's figured out a way to deliver a clean SP+LP and knows how to repeat it. That's a big difference from three to four years ago.

  14. #74
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cherryy View Post
    Just to remind everyone - Yuna skated a clean program for the first time at the Olympics, you know
    Her major titles are the 2009 worlds, 2010 olympics, 2013 worlds.
    All of these competitions, she was almost perfect.
    the only mistake was poped last 3S in the LP at the 2009 Worlds.

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    Quote Originally Posted by venlac View Post
    loop's point is similar with flip (her only jump that over 80% success rate)
    The 70% rule has been created, which reduces the deduction for the lack of the jump.(this season, more than half of the her jump was UR)
    GOE factor was decreased to 70%.
    3axel basis points increased again. and only for 3a, goe factor=100%
    what do you hoping to other rules? get rid of GOE? get rid of edge call? A rule that give 90% base point on the UR jump? Lowering the basis of 3lz again, be equal point with 3f?

    I wonder how the rules change more, it becomes be fair for mao
    it seems like some treat mao like humor a baby.

    And do not worry, Korea Federation has never suggest any rules,
    japan federation has successed many times.
    Rule can be more favorable to her, it'll be revise.
    This is pretty rude. I hardly think the original poster was "hoping for" rule changes favoring Mao, she was just asking a question about it.

    Did you ever consider that there may be reasons for these changes that don't have to do with Mao?

    loop's point is similar with flip (her only jump that over 80% success rate)
    Would you prefer the flip to get back to its 5.5 value?

    The 70% rule has been created, which reduces the deduction for the lack of the jump.(this season, more than half of the her jump was UR)
    So you think an underrotated triple should counted as a double with additional negative GOE?

    GOE factor was decreased to 70%.
    And the reason for this was so that an easier jump like double axel worth 3.5 points wouldn't be able get +3 technical GOE if performed well while a difficult jump like quad toe worth 10 points can only get +3 technical GOE. Whether or not you agree with it, there were legitimate arguments made for that rule change.

    3axel basis points increased again. and only for 3a, goe factor=100%
    Mao almost never gets good GOE on her 3a even when she should, unfortunately, so the GOE factor hardly helps her. As far as base value, some would argue the 8.5 is still too low for a 3a when you consider that for all other triples, the base value is around 3 times the base value for a double. So to be consistent, either the 3a base value should be at least 9 or the base value for the double axel should be decreased.

    it seems like some treat mao like humor a baby.
    This is classy.

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