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Thread: Which out of Team Canada, Kim, or V&T are biggest gold lock for Sochi

  1. #16
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    My biggest bet at this point would be Yuna (of course!) I can't see anyone taking away gold from her now... unless she does something terribly wrong. And it's Yuna we are talking about, I doubt it's even possible for her to sink that low. I mean, after this years Worlds... and she is existing Olympic champion!
    As for V/T... similar situation! OG will be in Russia, so they are clearly set for win. So... for now these two (Yuna and V/T) have my vote, but we must clearly watch next years GP... and, with skating, as I have learned, anything could happen!
    Chan in mens... after Worlds scandal, he must be as clean as he could be to renew himself to public... at least, a bit. But, it's Chan. And Canada really needs this gold... so... It's shameful to admit it, because I love mens skating sooo much! And Chan... I've never been a fan.
    Dance. I will be "very" original and say it will be D/W and V/M! Obviously! Has anybody doubt that? And russians for third place.

    P.S Thanks for your welcome posts! I'll try to post whenever I have something to say. But, I'm glad to be part of such a dynamic and interesting fs community!

  2. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mirunna View Post
    McKayla Maroney was a lock for gold medal in 2012 London Olympics on vault and we all probably know what happened. Nobody is a lock.
    If I had to make a bet, I would say V/T. I am not saying Yuna because she will have to face the pressure of being the defending champion, otherwise, I would have my money on her.
    Vault is only one move. You shouldnt even be able to fall in vault finals (1 of only 2 moves you do as there are 2 vaults) and medal at all, let alone win. Maroney winning silver falling on 1 of her 2 vaults, as much as I love her, was embarassing for the vault event. Figure skating has many moves, hence a highly favored skater can easily fall once, some cases more than once (as Patrick Chan loves to remind everyone) and still win at times. Of course hopefully that doesnt happen in any of these cases as the ideal would be the greatest skaters winning with the ultimate peformances.

  3. #18
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    The biggest lock is Yuna. Sure v/t won worlds with a huge score and a landslide but as the Russian skating continues it's collapse that means more pressure as the only contenders. They did so well in London that saw the singles skaters collapse but they withstood everything and did extremely well. It mgr be just the singles that's collapsing in relevance in seniors. Canada for team or us for team.

  4. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    Vault is only one move. You shouldnt even be able to fall in vault finals (1 of only 2 moves you do as there are 2 vaults) and medal at all, let alone win. Maroney winning silver falling on 1 of her 2 vaults, as much as I love her, was embarassing for the vault event. Figure skating has many moves, hence a highly favored skater can easily fall once, some cases more than once (as Patrick Chan loves to remind everyone) and still win at times. Of course hopefully that doesnt happen in any of these cases as the ideal would be the greatest skaters winning with the ultimate peformances.
    Right, but I think Mirunna's point is that anything can happen, and that declaring someone a "lock" based on previous competitions (Maroney was the reigning World Champion on vault; Kim in ladies'; Chan in men's; V/T in pairs; D/W in dance), no matter how exceptional or impressive, won't necessarily translate into results.

  5. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    Vault is only one move. You shouldnt even be able to fall in vault finals (1 of only 2 moves you do as there are 2 vaults) and medal at all, let alone win. Maroney winning silver falling on 1 of her 2 vaults, as much as I love her, was embarassing for the vault event. Figure skating has many moves, hence a highly favored skater can easily fall once, some cases more than once (as Patrick Chan loves to remind everyone) and still win at times. Of course hopefully that doesnt happen in any of these cases as the ideal would be the greatest skaters winning with the ultimate peformances.
    It happened in 2004 in men's vault too where Dragulescu literally stepped off the entire vaulting mat when he landed and still took the bronze over Kyle Shewfelt (who thankfully had a gold already from floor exercise).

    Like skating however, if you do high difficulty, it can make up for errors, even a fall... it's not right in theory, but on paper, it's how it works. Maroney's first vault was so incredibly difficult that it essentially guaranteed her the victory had she only done a marginally decent 2nd vault... which is exactly what she didn't do. I feel bad for her... she could have done a wayyy easier second vault and secured the gold (but I guess her 2 vaults were pre-determined and she couldn't change the 2nd vault to an easier one just because she executed the first vault very well).

  6. #21
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    V/T can fall twice, double footed 3 times and will still win. The other pairs are too old or too weak to come close.
    Kim has 2 rivals that can beat her.
    D/W has V/M as rival
    Men are so unpredictable. No one is lock for podium, let along Gold.

    So V/T is the most likely. Kim and D/W are in similar boat.

  7. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by FlattFan View Post
    V/T can fall twice, double footed 3 times and will still win. The other pairs are too old or too weak to come close.
    Kim has 2 rivals that can beat her.
    Who are the 2 rivals who can beat Kim??

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    Quote Originally Posted by cristina View Post
    Who are the 2 rivals who can beat Kim??
    I'm assuming Kostner and Asada. But if Kim goes clean, then they'll be fighting for silver (unless Kostner manages to somehow execute 7 triples, and Asada executes 8, including 3A). Asada replicating her 4CC SP would also give her a good chance to at least overtake Kim in that segment, but we'll have to see if she can replicate that SP cleanliness on the GP.

  9. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    I'm assuming Kostner and Asada. But if Kim goes clean, then they'll be fighting for silver (unless Kostner manages to somehow execute 7 triples, and Asada executes 8, including 3A). Asada replicating her 4CC SP would also give her a good chance to at least overtake Kim in that segment, but we'll have to see if she can replicate that SP cleanliness on the GP.
    Oh yes, Kostner and Asada. But after this year's Worlds and remembering Kostner's&Asada's previous seasons I can't see how they can be serious contenders to Kim who has steel nerves, crystal clear jumps, 3L-3T, no edge calls. Mao has no 3-3, has edge calls, often messy landings, can't do a clean 3A, Carolina has always a fall or 2, at least one jump doubled or singled and no steel nerves...

  10. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by cristina View Post
    Oh yes, Kostner and Asada. But after this year's Worlds and remembering Kostner's&Asada's previous seasons I can't see how they can be serious contenders to Kim who has steel nerves, crystal clear jumps, 3L-3T, no edge calls. Mao has no 3-3, has edge calls, often messy landings, can't do a clean 3A, Carolina has always a fall or 2, at least one jump doubled or singled and no steel nerves...
    Mao has been improving, and now has the PCS to make up for 3A errors and not having a 3-3... not so much to beat Kim but still put her within distance. Her 4CC SP coupled with Kim sub-70 score for a perfect 2013 Worlds SP shows that if Mao goes clean now she'll score within striking distance of Kim. You can tell at Worlds that the judges were ready to give Kostner and Asada the lead over Kim in the SP, but both failed to deliver technically.

    I also question Carolina's focus and ability to produce two clean programs, let alone a clean FS. It's a positive sign that her 3lutz is back and her 3F-3T made a return, though. But she'll need more than that (and certainly can't afford falls) to dethrone Kim.

    They are serious contenders - arguably her only serious contenders unless Wagner and Gold skate lights out in the Grand Prix - but they are still depended on mistakes. It's like with Chan and Takahashi... Hanyu and Fernandez are serious contenders but they need to go clean and depend on mistakes to firmly place ahead. It's ironic, because lesser competitors behind Asada and Kostner are also depending on them to make mistakes to have even a remote shot of placing higher than them.

  11. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    Mao has been improving, and now has the PCS to make up for 3A errors and not having a 3-3... not so much to beat Kim but still put her within distance. Her 4CC SP coupled with Kim sub-70 score for a perfect 2013 Worlds SP shows that if Mao goes clean now she'll score within striking distance of Kim. You can tell at Worlds that the judges were ready to give Kostner and Asada the lead over Kim in the SP, but both failed to deliver technically.

    I also question Carolina's focus and ability to produce two clean programs, let alone a clean FS. It's a positive sign that her 3lutz is back and her 3F-3T made a return, though. But she'll need more than that (and certainly can't afford falls) to dethrone Kim.

    They are serious contenders - arguably her only serious contenders unless Wagner and Gold skate lights out in the Grand Prix - but they are still depended on mistakes. It's like with Chan and Takahashi... Hanyu and Fernandez are serious contenders but they need to go clean and depend on mistakes to firmly place ahead. It's ironic, because lesser competitors behind Asada and Kostner are also depending on them to make mistakes to have even a remote shot of placing higher than them.
    You are right that judges were a bit cautious with Kim's PCS-s in SP but they considerably raised in FP. I still think that if Carolina&Mao lost even now with 20 points when Kim did a comeback and judges just didn't know yet what to expect from her, the less they have chance at Olympics when Kim already gained her old reputation.

  12. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by cristina View Post
    You are right that judges were a bit cautious with Kim's PCS-s in SP but they considerably raised in FP. I still think that if Carolina&Mao lost even now with 20 points when Kim did a comeback and judges just didn't know yet what to expect from her, the less they have chance at Olympics when Kim already gained her old reputation.
    Exactly. I guarantee you if Kim does a clean short at the Olympics it will this score close to 80 points, not under 70 points.

  13. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    Exactly. I guarantee you if Kim does a clean short at the Olympics it will this score close to 80 points, not under 70 points.
    Well, Mao scored 74.49 in her short with 3axel and no 3-3. Caro scored 72.81 with 3toe loop-3toe loop combo. So they are both capable of scoring close to 80 points as well.

  14. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by hurrah View Post
    Well, Mao scored 74.49 in her short with 3axel and no 3-3. Caro scored 72.81 with 3toe loop-3toe loop combo. So they are both capable of scoring close to 80 points as well.
    We will see. Maos score was in Japan, and it is pretty clear by all her competitions this year she scores much higher in Japan than she will anywhere else for comparable skates. Anyway if she does a clean short with both a 3axel and a 3-3 I will buy a lottery ticket immediately after. As for Kostner a 3 lutz-3 toe or 3 flip-3 toe vs a 3 toe-3 toe will only get you a couple more points max. Also wasnt the score you refer to at the Italian Nationals Figure Skating Championships, lol!

  15. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    We will see. Maos score was in Japan, and it is pretty clear by all her competitions this year she scores much higher in Japan than she will anywhere else for comparable skates. Anyway if she does a clean short with both a 3axel and a 3-3 I will buy a lottery ticket immediately after. As for Kostner a 3 lutz-3 toe or 3 flip-3 toe vs a 3 toe-3 toe will only get you a couple more points max. Also wasnt the score you refer to at the Italian Nationals Figure Skating Championships, lol!
    No it was at the Challenge Cup. I don't think she deserved that score, but oh well.

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