Which out of Team Canada, Kim, or V&T are biggest gold lock for Sochi | Page 2 | Golden Skate

Which out of Team Canada, Kim, or V&T are biggest gold lock for Sochi

FlattFan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jan 4, 2010
V/T can fall twice, double footed 3 times and will still win. The other pairs are too old or too weak to come close.
Kim has 2 rivals that can beat her.
D/W has V/M as rival
Men are so unpredictable. No one is lock for podium, let along Gold.

So V/T is the most likely. Kim and D/W are in similar boat.
 

CanadianSkaterGuy

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 25, 2013
Who are the 2 rivals who can beat Kim??

I'm assuming Kostner and Asada. But if Kim goes clean, then they'll be fighting for silver (unless Kostner manages to somehow execute 7 triples, and Asada executes 8, including 3A). Asada replicating her 4CC SP would also give her a good chance to at least overtake Kim in that segment, but we'll have to see if she can replicate that SP cleanliness on the GP.
 

cristina

Rinkside
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Sep 5, 2007
I'm assuming Kostner and Asada. But if Kim goes clean, then they'll be fighting for silver (unless Kostner manages to somehow execute 7 triples, and Asada executes 8, including 3A). Asada replicating her 4CC SP would also give her a good chance to at least overtake Kim in that segment, but we'll have to see if she can replicate that SP cleanliness on the GP.

Oh yes, Kostner and Asada. But after this year's Worlds and remembering Kostner's&Asada's previous seasons I can't see how they can be serious contenders to Kim who has steel nerves, crystal clear jumps, 3L-3T, no edge calls. Mao has no 3-3, has edge calls, often messy landings, can't do a clean 3A, Carolina has always a fall or 2, at least one jump doubled or singled and no steel nerves...
 

CanadianSkaterGuy

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 25, 2013
Oh yes, Kostner and Asada. But after this year's Worlds and remembering Kostner's&Asada's previous seasons I can't see how they can be serious contenders to Kim who has steel nerves, crystal clear jumps, 3L-3T, no edge calls. Mao has no 3-3, has edge calls, often messy landings, can't do a clean 3A, Carolina has always a fall or 2, at least one jump doubled or singled and no steel nerves...

Mao has been improving, and now has the PCS to make up for 3A errors and not having a 3-3... not so much to beat Kim but still put her within distance. Her 4CC SP coupled with Kim sub-70 score for a perfect 2013 Worlds SP shows that if Mao goes clean now she'll score within striking distance of Kim. You can tell at Worlds that the judges were ready to give Kostner and Asada the lead over Kim in the SP, but both failed to deliver technically.

I also question Carolina's focus and ability to produce two clean programs, let alone a clean FS. It's a positive sign that her 3lutz is back and her 3F-3T made a return, though. But she'll need more than that (and certainly can't afford falls) to dethrone Kim.

They are serious contenders - arguably her only serious contenders unless Wagner and Gold skate lights out in the Grand Prix - but they are still depended on mistakes. It's like with Chan and Takahashi... Hanyu and Fernandez are serious contenders but they need to go clean and depend on mistakes to firmly place ahead. It's ironic, because lesser competitors behind Asada and Kostner are also depending on them to make mistakes to have even a remote shot of placing higher than them.
 

cristina

Rinkside
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Sep 5, 2007
Mao has been improving, and now has the PCS to make up for 3A errors and not having a 3-3... not so much to beat Kim but still put her within distance. Her 4CC SP coupled with Kim sub-70 score for a perfect 2013 Worlds SP shows that if Mao goes clean now she'll score within striking distance of Kim. You can tell at Worlds that the judges were ready to give Kostner and Asada the lead over Kim in the SP, but both failed to deliver technically.

I also question Carolina's focus and ability to produce two clean programs, let alone a clean FS. It's a positive sign that her 3lutz is back and her 3F-3T made a return, though. But she'll need more than that (and certainly can't afford falls) to dethrone Kim.

They are serious contenders - arguably her only serious contenders unless Wagner and Gold skate lights out in the Grand Prix - but they are still depended on mistakes. It's like with Chan and Takahashi... Hanyu and Fernandez are serious contenders but they need to go clean and depend on mistakes to firmly place ahead. It's ironic, because lesser competitors behind Asada and Kostner are also depending on them to make mistakes to have even a remote shot of placing higher than them.

You are right that judges were a bit cautious with Kim's PCS-s in SP but they considerably raised in FP. I still think that if Carolina&Mao lost even now with 20 points when Kim did a comeback and judges just didn't know yet what to expect from her, the less they have chance at Olympics when Kim already gained her old reputation.
 

pangtongfan

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Jun 16, 2010
You are right that judges were a bit cautious with Kim's PCS-s in SP but they considerably raised in FP. I still think that if Carolina&Mao lost even now with 20 points when Kim did a comeback and judges just didn't know yet what to expect from her, the less they have chance at Olympics when Kim already gained her old reputation.

Exactly. I guarantee you if Kim does a clean short at the Olympics it will this score close to 80 points, not under 70 points.
 

hurrah

Medalist
Joined
Aug 8, 2009
Exactly. I guarantee you if Kim does a clean short at the Olympics it will this score close to 80 points, not under 70 points.

Well, Mao scored 74.49 in her short with 3axel and no 3-3. Caro scored 72.81 with 3toe loop-3toe loop combo. So they are both capable of scoring close to 80 points as well.
 

pangtongfan

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Jun 16, 2010
Well, Mao scored 74.49 in her short with 3axel and no 3-3. Caro scored 72.81 with 3toe loop-3toe loop combo. So they are both capable of scoring close to 80 points as well.

We will see. Maos score was in Japan, and it is pretty clear by all her competitions this year she scores much higher in Japan than she will anywhere else for comparable skates. Anyway if she does a clean short with both a 3axel and a 3-3 I will buy a lottery ticket immediately after. As for Kostner a 3 lutz-3 toe or 3 flip-3 toe vs a 3 toe-3 toe will only get you a couple more points max. Also wasnt the score you refer to at the Italian Nationals Figure Skating Championships, lol!
 

Moment

Final Flight
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Jan 18, 2013
We will see. Maos score was in Japan, and it is pretty clear by all her competitions this year she scores much higher in Japan than she will anywhere else for comparable skates. Anyway if she does a clean short with both a 3axel and a 3-3 I will buy a lottery ticket immediately after. As for Kostner a 3 lutz-3 toe or 3 flip-3 toe vs a 3 toe-3 toe will only get you a couple more points max. Also wasnt the score you refer to at the Italian Nationals Figure Skating Championships, lol!

No it was at the Challenge Cup. I don't think she deserved that score, but oh well.
 

hurrah

Medalist
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Aug 8, 2009
The point is, Yuna's not guaranteed to leave everyone else in the dust after the short program, unlike at Vancouver. The race will be much closer this time, so yes, both Mao and Caro are serious rivals.
 

Krislite

Medalist
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Sep 22, 2010
Exactly. I guarantee you if Kim does a clean short at the Olympics it will this score close to 80 points, not under 70 points.

77 is more likely Yuna's max for the short program these days, assuming level 4 everything, GOE's maxed out and 9.5 for each component.

As I mentioned in another thread, she can no longer build a decisive lead in the SP (unless Carolina and Mao make mistakes), but her strength now lies in the long program.
 

pangtongfan

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Jun 16, 2010
In any case V&T were my pick when I opened this thread and they still are. My golds odds for Vancouver are:

V&T- 95% (really more like 99% though, I am just being generous to the rest)
Team Canada- 90%
Kim- 85%
Davis & White- 55% (that might be a bit low though, might be as much as 65% when they are starting to regularly beat V&M and handily beat them at Worlds on t heir home turf)

Like I said there is no one particular man who has more than 30%. Before Worlds I would have said Chan had 105% to win as the last 3 years he hasnt even had to skate to win events, his golds could have been mailed to him, and it was a certainty nobody had horrendously he skated and how outstandingly anyone else skated he was sure to win, but I have a feeling the huge outcry around the whole World over this years Worlds results, which comes on the heels after a fairly loud outcry of last years Worlds result which was in reality even worse but the Chan farce has simply gone on too long now, will have the ISU be very careful when it comes to next years Sochi Olympics. Everyone will now be watching Chan and how is scored very closely, including probably even the IOC members who will be fearful of another skating scandal tainting the whole Games like 2002.
 

clairecloutier

Final Flight
Joined
Aug 27, 2003
Has Mao ever skated a clean long program? I've been watching her for years but don't remember her ever going completely clean in the long. Seems like there's nearly always at least some popped jumps in there. Does anyone know?
 

chuckm

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Aug 31, 2003
Country
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At the 2010 Olympics, Kim scored 78.50 for her SP, with one more element (spiral sequence, worth 5.4 points) but the same jump content as in London; she scored nearly the same PCS: 33.80 in Vancouver, 33.18 in London. Subtract the spiral sequence, and you get 73.10.

In Vancouver, Asada scored 73.78 with 3a+2t, 3f, 2a and similar PCS: 32.28 in Vancouver, 32.40 in London. Subtracting out the spiral sequence leaves 68.38.

Both skaters skated pretty much their maximum TES in Vancouver (without the spiral sequence, 39.30 for Kim and 36.10 for Asada), which is approximately what they'd get today if both skated clean. So I don't see how either Kim or Asada can score close to 80 in the SP unless every judge scored their PCS 9.5 or higher in every category, which is not going to happen.
 

chuckm

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Aug 31, 2003
Country
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Has Mao ever skated a clean long program? I've been watching her for years but don't remember her ever going completely clean in the long. Seems like there's nearly always at least some popped jumps in there. Does anyone know?

Even at the Vancouver Olympics, Mao did not skate clean. After frontloading the program with 3a and 3a+2t, she seemed to run out of gas in the second half, URing the 3f in combination, and popping a planned 3t to a single.

She won Worlds 2010, but did not skate a clean FS there: she URd the 3a in combination. She won Worlds 2008, but popped her 3a attempt and URd the 3lo in a 3/3 attempt. She won 4CC this year, but URd a 3a attempt, URd the 3lo in a 3/3 attempt, URd the 3t in combo with 2a, and doubled the salchow.

Mao's seeming inability to produce a clean FS cost her the OGM in 2010 and could threaten her medal hopes in Sochi.
 

Skater Boy

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Feb 24, 2012
Yuna is probably the safest bet right now. V and T will undoubtedlyu win gold or silver. Team Canada would have to skate pretty bad not to get bronze at least they are the most solid Gold men; silver dance, bronze pairs and eighth in ladies whereas the other teams all have major doubts or weaknesses. russia huge question men's and the women could be anywhere. USA has strength in ladies and dance but in the men it is unknown how will they do medal or out of top ten is possible and the pairs are - whose skating with who and does anyone really care. When I say top ten or gold - I am talking on the overall world standard of course it has to translate into the ten teams skating in the team comp but you get the idea.
 

Li'Kitsu

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Joined
Dec 29, 2011
chuckm said:
In Vancouver, Asada scored 73.78 with 3a+2t, 3f, 2a and similar PCS: 32.28 in Vancouver, 32.40 in London. Subtracting out the spiral sequence leaves 68.38.

Both skaters skated pretty much their maximum TES in Vancouver (without the spiral sequence, 39.30 for Kim and 36.10 for Asada), which is approximately what they'd get today if both skated clean.

Mao's actual layout now: 3A, 3F-2Lo, 3Lo. Different from Vancouver. At 4CC where she managed all the jumps she had a BV of 34.11, although with one Lv 4 spin. Factoring the +GOE in, she's pretty capable of scoring over 36.10. (At 4CC it was already 40.63).
For Yuna, she has a similar BV, that's true. But eventhough the Spiral sequence is gone, to me the jugdes look more PCS and GOE happy than ever (plus it's going to be the Olympics! Look at 2010, PCS and GOE were given out like candy!). That might still equal out the missing points for the Spiral and get her very close to 80.
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
The more I think about the more I am sure V&T are the biggest lock of all, although I will be very surprised if any of V&T, Team Canada, or Kim dont win gold for that matter. They have been pulling away from the pack more and more all year, and S&S who were neck and neck with them for so long, are now fighting to even stay ahead of all the other teams. Their only rivals are a team not from a strong federation who are seen as sliding down (S&S). They also will be in enemy territory in Russia and nobody will come to their defense unfortunately even if the Russians made some huge mistakes, and S&S given their history arent likely to go clean anyway. The next biggest threats are either #2 Russian team who politically are behind V&T in their own countries support (along with being much weaker and more inconsistent skaters) or a Canadian team, and given the Canada-Russia history in skating they find themselves even deeper entrenched in enemy territory and wont be beating the Russians in Russia unless something catastrophic happens. The judges will be sure to give V&T the GOEs and PCS needed to win no matter what, even to compensate for several mistakes if need be.
 

Nadia01

Final Flight
Joined
Nov 10, 2009
Mao has been improving, and now has the PCS to make up for 3A errors and not having a 3-3... not so much to beat Kim but still put her within distance. Her 4CC SP coupled with Kim sub-70 score for a perfect 2013 Worlds SP shows that if Mao goes clean now she'll score within striking distance of Kim. You can tell at Worlds that the judges were ready to give Kostner and Asada the lead over Kim in the SP, but both failed to deliver technically.

I also question Carolina's focus and ability to produce two clean programs, let alone a clean FS. It's a positive sign that her 3lutz is back and her 3F-3T made a return, though. But she'll need more than that (and certainly can't afford falls) to dethrone Kim.

They are serious contenders - arguably her only serious contenders unless Wagner and Gold skate lights out in the Grand Prix - but they are still depended on mistakes. It's like with Chan and Takahashi... Hanyu and Fernandez are serious contenders but they need to go clean and depend on mistakes to firmly place ahead. It's ironic, because lesser competitors behind Asada and Kostner are also depending on them to make mistakes to have even a remote shot of placing higher than them.

Kim got an edge call on her solo flip in SP, which some found controversial. She didn't get the same call in LP BTW. And that edge call is what put Kim's SP score under 70. Without it, she would've easily scored 72-73.
 
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