The point is, Yuna's not guaranteed to leave everyone else in the dust after the short program, unlike at Vancouver. The race will be much closer this time, so yes, both Mao and Caro are serious rivals.
Six Point Zero
77 is more likely Yuna's max for the short program these days, assuming level 4 everything, GOE's maxed out and 9.5 for each component.
Originally Posted by pangtongfan
As I mentioned in another thread, she can no longer build a decisive lead in the SP (unless Carolina and Mao make mistakes), but her strength now lies in the long program.
In any case V&T were my pick when I opened this thread and they still are. My golds odds for Vancouver are:
V&T- 95% (really more like 99% though, I am just being generous to the rest)
Team Canada- 90%
Davis & White- 55% (that might be a bit low though, might be as much as 65% when they are starting to regularly beat V&M and handily beat them at Worlds on t heir home turf)
Like I said there is no one particular man who has more than 30%. Before Worlds I would have said Chan had 105% to win as the last 3 years he hasnt even had to skate to win events, his golds could have been mailed to him, and it was a certainty nobody had horrendously he skated and how outstandingly anyone else skated he was sure to win, but I have a feeling the huge outcry around the whole World over this years Worlds results, which comes on the heels after a fairly loud outcry of last years Worlds result which was in reality even worse but the Chan farce has simply gone on too long now, will have the ISU be very careful when it comes to next years Sochi Olympics. Everyone will now be watching Chan and how is scored very closely, including probably even the IOC members who will be fearful of another skating scandal tainting the whole Games like 2002.
Has Mao ever skated a clean long program? I've been watching her for years but don't remember her ever going completely clean in the long. Seems like there's nearly always at least some popped jumps in there. Does anyone know?
At the 2010 Olympics, Kim scored 78.50 for her SP, with one more element (spiral sequence, worth 5.4 points) but the same jump content as in London; she scored nearly the same PCS: 33.80 in Vancouver, 33.18 in London. Subtract the spiral sequence, and you get 73.10.
In Vancouver, Asada scored 73.78 with 3a+2t, 3f, 2a and similar PCS: 32.28 in Vancouver, 32.40 in London. Subtracting out the spiral sequence leaves 68.38.
Both skaters skated pretty much their maximum TES in Vancouver (without the spiral sequence, 39.30 for Kim and 36.10 for Asada), which is approximately what they'd get today if both skated clean. So I don't see how either Kim or Asada can score close to 80 in the SP unless every judge scored their PCS 9.5 or higher in every category, which is not going to happen.
Even at the Vancouver Olympics, Mao did not skate clean. After frontloading the program with 3a and 3a+2t, she seemed to run out of gas in the second half, URing the 3f in combination, and popping a planned 3t to a single.
Originally Posted by eyria
She won Worlds 2010, but did not skate a clean FS there: she URd the 3a in combination. She won Worlds 2008, but popped her 3a attempt and URd the 3lo in a 3/3 attempt. She won 4CC this year, but URd a 3a attempt, URd the 3lo in a 3/3 attempt, URd the 3t in combo with 2a, and doubled the salchow.
Mao's seeming inability to produce a clean FS cost her the OGM in 2010 and could threaten her medal hopes in Sochi.
Yuna is probably the safest bet right now. V and T will undoubtedlyu win gold or silver. Team Canada would have to skate pretty bad not to get bronze at least they are the most solid Gold men; silver dance, bronze pairs and eighth in ladies whereas the other teams all have major doubts or weaknesses. russia huge question men's and the women could be anywhere. USA has strength in ladies and dance but in the men it is unknown how will they do medal or out of top ten is possible and the pairs are - whose skating with who and does anyone really care. When I say top ten or gold - I am talking on the overall world standard of course it has to translate into the ten teams skating in the team comp but you get the idea.
Mao's actual layout now: 3A, 3F-2Lo, 3Lo. Different from Vancouver. At 4CC where she managed all the jumps she had a BV of 34.11, although with one Lv 4 spin. Factoring the +GOE in, she's pretty capable of scoring over 36.10. (At 4CC it was already 40.63).
Originally Posted by chuckm
For Yuna, she has a similar BV, that's true. But eventhough the Spiral sequence is gone, to me the jugdes look more PCS and GOE happy than ever (plus it's going to be the Olympics! Look at 2010, PCS and GOE were given out like candy!). That might still equal out the missing points for the Spiral and get her very close to 80.
The more I think about the more I am sure V&T are the biggest lock of all, although I will be very surprised if any of V&T, Team Canada, or Kim dont win gold for that matter. They have been pulling away from the pack more and more all year, and S&S who were neck and neck with them for so long, are now fighting to even stay ahead of all the other teams. Their only rivals are a team not from a strong federation who are seen as sliding down (S&S). They also will be in enemy territory in Russia and nobody will come to their defense unfortunately even if the Russians made some huge mistakes, and S&S given their history arent likely to go clean anyway. The next biggest threats are either #2 Russian team who politically are behind V&T in their own countries support (along with being much weaker and more inconsistent skaters) or a Canadian team, and given the Canada-Russia history in skating they find themselves even deeper entrenched in enemy territory and wont be beating the Russians in Russia unless something catastrophic happens. The judges will be sure to give V&T the GOEs and PCS needed to win no matter what, even to compensate for several mistakes if need be.
Kim got an edge call on her solo flip in SP, which some found controversial. She didn't get the same call in LP BTW. And that edge call is what put Kim's SP score under 70. Without it, she would've easily scored 72-73.
Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy
You may be right about this. However, I'm not sure we should count S&S out just yet. True, this season was very subpar. I don't know what happened, beyond the obvious problem of Aliona's sinus infection. But I'm guessing it was a motivation problem. They've been pretty honest that they stayed in this quad entirely for Sochi. Robin even said at one point that it didn't really matter if they competed in Europeans or even Worlds, since they already have so many of those titles. I got the sense all year they were just sort of riding out this season, weren't really focused on it, and were just waiting for next year and Sochi. I think it will be a different story next year. They definitely want that gold in Sochi, and I think they'll be much more motivated and will skate much better--if they can stay injury- and illness-free. They definitely have the skills and talent to come back strong next year. Despite the lackluster season, they are still clearly better than everyone except V/T (maybe not in the long at Worlds, but overall). It will take some of their best performances to beat V/T, but I don't think it's impossible. Although V/T had a great Worlds, the rest of their season was not great at all. I think they're beatable.
Originally Posted by pangtongfan
The whole situation reminds me of Klimova/Ponomarenko and the Duchesnays in 1992. Coming off 1991 Worlds, no one gave K/P much chance of winning the Olympics in 1992. Everyone expected the Duchesnays to win the OGM because they were a) coming in as world champions and b) skating in their home country. In fact K/P were not even considered locks for silver, as they were fighting off a home-country challenge from Usova/Zhulin, seen as splitting support within the Russian federation. But in the end, K/P triumphed with skating that was so good it simply could not be denied. I do think S/S have a chance to do the same.
I'm still figuring out the scoring... but an edge call on 3F costs 2-3 points? That seems costly...
A fall would cost 4 right? -3GOE and -1 deduction?
After what I saw at Worlds 2013 I'm going to put my money on Yuna Kim. She's incredibly cool-headed skater and her jumps (especially 3Lz+3T) are amazing. I really like Asada, Wagner and others but...gold is for Kim. Of course nothing is certain and I'm waiting for next season programs, because that will be really interesting.
Some of what you said could be right, but I still dont think S&S can beat V&T in Russia with all the momentum they have now, and the games being in Russia, without alot of help from V&T. Even if they skate outstandingly the judges will do everything to try and help V&T win with high scores, and they will have to make several mistakes to possibly lose it. I think S&S might be showing the effects of age and a long time in amateur skating too. They might want a revival next year, but it doesnt mean they can make it happen. In the event they did just decide to cruise this year, it was pretty foolish on their parts, as the last thing they could have afforded is V&T to pull away the year before the Olympics in Russia. They were being naive and a bit clueless if they honestly thought they could allow that to happen and still have a good shot at just coming back and taking the OGM.
Originally Posted by eyria
As for K&P and the D&D in 91 and 92 I dont really see it as the same thing. The Duchensays barely won the 91 Worlds. At those Worlds even Usova & Zhulin led going into the FD at those Worlds, then had 4 1st place votes out of 9 judges in the FD, had only 3 of 9 judges place them lower than K&P (who were only 3rd going into the FD there) in the FD, and still somehow came only 3rd. The 91 Worlds was an incredibly close competition. K&P were at their poorest ever at those Worlds, even stumbling in their CD, and still barely lost winning (should have come only 3rd really). Even Olympics being in France did not guarantee D&D winning, especialy when Klimova & Ponomarenko changed coaches and showed up a vastly improved team for 92. The Duchensays also missed almost the whole season having to change programs which some judges hinted to them were not appropriate, and skated their most lackluster performances in 5 years at the Games. They still only missed gold by 1 judge in both the OD and FD, to a vastly superior Klimova & Ponomarenko who were always in another planet from the Duchensays technically, and this year had far more capativating and superior programs artistically too, showing what it took for K&P to unseat D&D in their home country as the reigning World Champs. Usova & Zhulin also performed light years better than lackluster and blah Duchensays in Albertville, but didnt come anywhere near beating them. Had it not been for the CDs (where K&P won, and D&D, who always struggled in this phase their whole career placed only 3rd) which obviously there arent any of in pairs, I think the judges would have gone ahead and given it to the Duchensays anyway. The gap between V&T and S&S right now is much bigger than the ice dance gap then.
From the ISU's 2012-2013 technical handbook:
Originally Posted by TontoK
"In cases of not taking off from the clean correct edge the Technical Panel will indicate the error to the Judges using the sign “e” (edge). The Technical Panel may watch the replay in slow motion. Each Judge will then decide himself/herself on the severity of the error (major or minor error) and the corresponding GOE reduction."
Since Yuna's edge call was so controversial, it probably wasn't severe enough to dock 2-3 points. She would have scored above 70 without it, but probably not 72-73 when you factor in the points lost on the wonky flying camel spin.
I'm no expert on the scoring system, but falls seem to warrant -2.10 GOE plus an automatic 1-point deduction, leading to a loss of 3.10 points.
ETA: Looking at the protocols, three judges gave her -1 GOE on the flip, three gave her 0 GOE, two gave her +1 GOE, and one gave her -2 GOE. All in all it averages to -0.20 GOE, which dropped her to just below 70.